Intrinsic value of Pfenex - PFNX

Previous Close

$4.77

  Intrinsic Value

$31.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+559%

Previous close

$4.77

 
Intrinsic value

$31.46

 
Up/down potential

+559%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PFNX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  38.30
  34.97
  31.97
  29.28
  26.85
  24.66
  22.70
  20.93
  19.33
  17.90
  16.61
  15.45
  14.40
  13.46
  12.62
  11.86
  11.17
  10.55
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
Revenue, $m
  40
  54
  71
  92
  116
  145
  178
  215
  257
  303
  353
  407
  466
  529
  595
  666
  740
  819
  900
  986
  1,075
  1,168
  1,265
  1,365
  1,470
  1,579
  1,692
  1,809
  1,931
  2,058
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  30
  36
  42
  48
  55
  63
  72
  81
  91
  101
  111
  123
  134
  146
  159
  172
  186
  200
  215
  230
  246
  263
  280
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
  74
  76
  78
  79
  81
  83
  85
  86
Total operating expenses, $m
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  123
  133
  143
  155
  166
  178
  191
  204
  217
  232
  246
  262
  278
  294
  311
  329
  348
  366
Operating income, $m
  -13
  -2
  12
  29
  49
  73
  100
  131
  166
  204
  248
  293
  343
  396
  452
  512
  575
  641
  710
  782
  858
  937
  1,019
  1,104
  1,192
  1,285
  1,380
  1,480
  1,584
  1,691
EBITDA, $m
  -10
  1
  16
  33
  54
  79
  107
  139
  176
  216
  259
  307
  358
  413
  472
  534
  599
  668
  740
  815
  894
  976
  1,061
  1,149
  1,242
  1,337
  1,437
  1,540
  1,648
  1,760
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  23
  25
  28
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
Earnings before tax, $m
  -13
  -2
  11
  27
  47
  69
  96
  125
  158
  195
  237
  281
  328
  378
  432
  489
  549
  612
  678
  748
  820
  895
  973
  1,055
  1,139
  1,227
  1,319
  1,414
  1,513
  1,615
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  3
  7
  13
  19
  26
  34
  43
  53
  64
  76
  89
  102
  117
  132
  148
  165
  183
  202
  221
  242
  263
  285
  308
  331
  356
  382
  408
  436
Net income, $m
  -13
  -2
  8
  20
  34
  51
  70
  91
  116
  143
  173
  205
  239
  276
  315
  357
  401
  447
  495
  546
  598
  653
  710
  770
  832
  896
  963
  1,032
  1,104
  1,179

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  55
  74
  97
  126
  159
  199
  244
  295
  352
  415
  484
  559
  639
  725
  817
  914
  1,016
  1,123
  1,235
  1,353
  1,475
  1,602
  1,735
  1,873
  2,016
  2,165
  2,320
  2,481
  2,649
  2,823
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  55
  74
  97
  126
  159
  199
  244
  295
  352
  415
  484
  559
  639
  725
  817
  914
  1,016
  1,123
  1,235
  1,353
  1,475
  1,602
  1,735
  1,873
  2,016
  2,165
  2,320
  2,481
  2,649
  2,823
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.727
  0.730
  0.732
  0.730
  0.730
  0.729
  0.730
  0.729
  0.730
  0.730
  0.729
  0.728
  0.729
  0.730
  0.728
  0.729
  0.728
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
Average production assets, $m
  16
  22
  28
  37
  47
  58
  71
  86
  103
  121
  141
  163
  187
  212
  239
  267
  297
  328
  361
  395
  431
  468
  507
  548
  589
  633
  678
  725
  774
  825
Working capital, $m
  -20
  -27
  -36
  -46
  -58
  -73
  -89
  -108
  -129
  -152
  -177
  -205
  -234
  -266
  -300
  -335
  -372
  -412
  -453
  -496
  -541
  -588
  -636
  -687
  -739
  -794
  -851
  -910
  -971
  -1,035
Total debt, $m
  9
  19
  32
  47
  65
  86
  110
  138
  169
  203
  240
  280
  323
  369
  419
  471
  526
  583
  644
  707
  773
  841
  913
  987
  1,064
  1,144
  1,228
  1,314
  1,404
  1,498
Total liabilities, $m
  29
  40
  52
  68
  86
  107
  131
  159
  189
  223
  260
  301
  344
  390
  439
  492
  546
  604
  665
  728
  794
  862
  933
  1,008
  1,085
  1,165
  1,248
  1,335
  1,425
  1,519
Total equity, $m
  25
  34
  45
  58
  74
  92
  113
  136
  163
  192
  224
  258
  295
  335
  377
  422
  469
  519
  571
  625
  681
  740
  802
  865
  932
  1,000
  1,072
  1,146
  1,224
  1,304
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  54
  74
  97
  126
  160
  199
  244
  295
  352
  415
  484
  559
  639
  725
  816
  914
  1,015
  1,123
  1,236
  1,353
  1,475
  1,602
  1,735
  1,873
  2,017
  2,165
  2,320
  2,481
  2,649
  2,823
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.340
  0.550
  0.700
  0.810
  0.880
  0.940
  0.980
  1.010
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -13
  -2
  8
  20
  34
  51
  70
  91
  116
  143
  173
  205
  239
  276
  315
  357
  401
  447
  495
  546
  598
  653
  710
  770
  832
  896
  963
  1,032
  1,104
  1,179
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  60
  65
  69
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  1
  12
  24
  39
  57
  77
  100
  125
  154
  185
  218
  255
  294
  335
  379
  426
  474
  525
  579
  634
  692
  753
  815
  881
  949
  1,019
  1,092
  1,169
  1,248
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
Cash from operations, $m
  -5
  8
  20
  35
  51
  71
  93
  118
  146
  177
  210
  246
  284
  325
  369
  415
  463
  514
  567
  622
  679
  739
  801
  866
  933
  1,003
  1,076
  1,151
  1,230
  1,312
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -65
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -116
Free cash flow, $m
  -10
  1
  12
  24
  38
  56
  75
  97
  122
  150
  180
  212
  247
  285
  324
  367
  411
  458
  506
  557
  610
  666
  723
  783
  846
  911
  978
  1,048
  1,121
  1,196
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  11
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  28
  21
  16
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  22
  27
  39
  57
  77
  100
  125
  153
  184
  217
  252
  291
  331
  374
  419
  466
  515
  567
  620
  676
  734
  795
  858
  923
  991
  1,061
  1,134
  1,211
  1,290
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  37
  11
  16
  26
  41
  59
  79
  101
  127
  155
  185
  218
  253
  291
  331
  374
  419
  466
  515
  566
  620
  676
  734
  794
  857
  922
  990
  1,060
  1,133
  1,210
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  36
  10
  14
  21
  32
  43
  53
  63
  73
  81
  88
  93
  96
  98
  97
  95
  91
  86
  79
  72
  64
  56
  48
  40
  33
  27
  21
  16
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  70.9
  60.8
  59.0
  59.0
  59.0
  59.0
  59.0
  59.0
  59.0
  59.0
  59.0
  59.0
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  59.0
  59.0
  59.0
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  59.0
  59.0
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  59.0

Pfenex Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company. The Company is engaged in the development of biosimilar and therapeutic equivalent products to branded therapeutics and other high-value and difficult-to-manufacture proteins. Its lead product candidate is PF582, a biosimilar candidate to Lucentis (ranibizumab). Its next advanced product candidates are PF530 and PF708. PF530 is a biosimilar candidate to Betaseron (interferon beta-1b). PF708 is being developed as a therapeutically equivalent peptide to Forteo (teriparatide), which is for the treatment of osteoporosis. In addition to its three advanced product candidates, its pipeline includes over four other biosimilar candidates, as well as vaccines and next generation biologic candidates. Its product candidates are enabled by its protein production platform, Pfenex Expression Technology. It is also developing Px563L, an anthrax vaccine candidate, and Px533 as a prophylactic vaccine candidate against malaria infection.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pfenex (PFNX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.4
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 500%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 200%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.9%
Return On Equity 6.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.5%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 91.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.3%
EBITDA Margin 11.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -110.1%
Operating Margin 8.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -114.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -120.9%
Net Profit Margin 8.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -120.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

PFNX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PFNX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $28.78 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pfenex. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Pfenex. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PFNX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 38.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PFNX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pfenex, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pfenex.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PFNX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 17.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $45 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PFNX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Pfenex.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pfenex. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PFNX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PFNX are equal to 40.1%.

Life of production assets of 12 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pfenex operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PFNX is equal to -50.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $57.763 million for Pfenex - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.426 million for Pfenex is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pfenex at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
EBS Emergent Bioso 68.44 3.72  str.sell
PFE Pfizer 43.21 34.10  hold
REGN Regeneron Phar 341.65 335.37  hold
AMGN Amgen 192.45 130.16  sell
BIIB Biogen 321.72 402.94  hold
LLY Eli Lilly 112.20 67.15  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Pfenex, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Pfenex Set to Join Russell 2000® Index   [Jun-22-18 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Pfenex Announces Offering of Common Stock   [May-22-18 04:23PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Pfenex, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:30PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Pfenex Names Susan A. Knudson as Chief Financial Officer   [Jan-04-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pfênex, Inc. : November 10, 2017   [Nov-10-17 12:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Pfenex, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:10PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pfênex, Inc. : October 26, 2017   [Oct-26-17 10:42AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pfênex, Inc. : October 16, 2017   [Oct-16-17 09:58AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pfênex, Inc. : September 28, 2017   [Sep-28-17 10:18AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Pfenex Announces Management Changes   [Sep-07-17 05:45PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Pfenex Names Eef Schimmelpennink Chief Executive Officer   [Aug-03-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pfênex, Inc. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pfênex, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Pfenex to Present at the 2017 JMP Healthcare Conference   [Jun-08-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pfênex, Inc. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pfênex, Inc. : April 13, 2017   [Apr-13-17 12:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Pfenex Announces Leadership Transition   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Pfenex Inc (PFNX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 07:35AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Pfenex Inc (PFNX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [07:35AM  at Insider Monkey]

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