Intrinsic value of PGT Innovations, Inc. - PGTI

Previous Close

$13.98

  Intrinsic Value

$83.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+496%

Previous close

$13.98

 
Intrinsic value

$83.32

 
Up/down potential

+496%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PGTI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  41.60
  37.94
  34.65
  31.68
  29.01
  26.61
  24.45
  22.51
  20.76
  19.18
  17.76
  16.49
  15.34
  14.30
  13.37
  12.54
  11.78
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.92
  6.72
Revenue, $m
  988
  1,363
  1,836
  2,417
  3,119
  3,949
  4,914
  6,020
  7,269
  8,664
  10,202
  11,884
  13,707
  15,667
  17,763
  19,989
  22,344
  24,826
  27,431
  30,158
  33,008
  35,981
  39,076
  42,298
  45,648
  49,129
  52,748
  56,508
  60,415
  64,478
Variable operating expenses, $m
  783
  1,059
  1,406
  1,835
  2,351
  2,962
  3,673
  4,487
  5,407
  6,433
  7,511
  8,749
  10,091
  11,534
  13,077
  14,716
  16,450
  18,277
  20,195
  22,203
  24,301
  26,489
  28,768
  31,140
  33,606
  36,169
  38,833
  41,601
  44,478
  47,469
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  64
  66
  67
Total operating expenses, $m
  819
  1,096
  1,443
  1,873
  2,390
  3,002
  3,714
  4,529
  5,450
  6,477
  7,555
  8,794
  10,137
  11,581
  13,126
  14,766
  16,501
  18,329
  20,248
  22,257
  24,356
  26,545
  28,826
  31,199
  33,666
  36,231
  38,896
  41,665
  44,544
  47,536
Operating income, $m
  170
  268
  392
  544
  729
  947
  1,201
  1,491
  1,820
  2,187
  2,647
  3,090
  3,569
  4,086
  4,637
  5,224
  5,844
  6,497
  7,183
  7,902
  8,652
  9,435
  10,250
  11,099
  11,981
  12,899
  13,852
  14,842
  15,872
  16,942
EBITDA, $m
  246
  352
  486
  651
  849
  1,085
  1,359
  1,673
  2,028
  2,425
  2,862
  3,340
  3,859
  4,416
  5,012
  5,645
  6,315
  7,021
  7,762
  8,538
  9,349
  10,194
  11,075
  11,992
  12,945
  13,935
  14,965
  16,035
  17,147
  18,303
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  34
  52
  76
  105
  142
  186
  238
  299
  368
  446
  534
  631
  736
  851
  974
  1,106
  1,245
  1,393
  1,549
  1,713
  1,884
  2,063
  2,250
  2,444
  2,647
  2,857
  3,076
  3,303
  3,539
  3,785
Earnings before tax, $m
  136
  216
  316
  439
  587
  761
  963
  1,193
  1,452
  1,740
  2,113
  2,459
  2,833
  3,235
  3,663
  4,118
  4,598
  5,104
  5,634
  6,189
  6,768
  7,372
  8,001
  8,655
  9,335
  10,042
  10,776
  11,539
  12,332
  13,157
Tax expense, $m
  37
  58
  85
  119
  158
  205
  260
  322
  392
  470
  570
  664
  765
  873
  989
  1,112
  1,242
  1,378
  1,521
  1,671
  1,827
  1,990
  2,160
  2,337
  2,520
  2,711
  2,910
  3,116
  3,330
  3,552
Net income, $m
  99
  158
  231
  321
  428
  555
  703
  871
  1,060
  1,271
  1,542
  1,795
  2,068
  2,361
  2,674
  3,006
  3,357
  3,726
  4,113
  4,518
  4,941
  5,382
  5,840
  6,318
  6,814
  7,330
  7,866
  8,424
  9,003
  9,605

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,220
  1,683
  2,266
  2,984
  3,850
  4,875
  6,067
  7,432
  8,974
  10,696
  12,596
  14,672
  16,922
  19,343
  21,929
  24,678
  27,586
  30,649
  33,865
  37,233
  40,751
  44,420
  48,243
  52,220
  56,355
  60,654
  65,121
  69,763
  74,587
  79,602
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,220
  1,683
  2,266
  2,984
  3,850
  4,875
  6,067
  7,432
  8,974
  10,696
  12,596
  14,672
  16,922
  19,343
  21,929
  24,678
  27,586
  30,649
  33,865
  37,233
  40,751
  44,420
  48,243
  52,220
  56,355
  60,654
  65,121
  69,763
  74,587
  79,602
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
Average production assets, $m
  415
  573
  771
  1,015
  1,310
  1,658
  2,064
  2,528
  3,053
  3,639
  4,285
  4,991
  5,757
  6,580
  7,460
  8,396
  9,385
  10,427
  11,521
  12,667
  13,863
  15,112
  16,412
  17,765
  19,172
  20,634
  22,154
  23,733
  25,374
  27,081
Working capital, $m
  106
  146
  196
  259
  334
  422
  526
  644
  778
  927
  1,092
  1,272
  1,467
  1,676
  1,901
  2,139
  2,391
  2,656
  2,935
  3,227
  3,532
  3,850
  4,181
  4,526
  4,884
  5,257
  5,644
  6,046
  6,464
  6,899
Total debt, $m
  565
  821
  1,143
  1,540
  2,019
  2,586
  3,245
  4,000
  4,853
  5,805
  6,855
  8,004
  9,248
  10,587
  12,017
  13,537
  15,145
  16,839
  18,618
  20,480
  22,425
  24,455
  26,568
  28,768
  31,055
  33,432
  35,902
  38,469
  41,137
  43,910
Total liabilities, $m
  675
  931
  1,253
  1,650
  2,129
  2,696
  3,355
  4,110
  4,963
  5,915
  6,965
  8,114
  9,358
  10,696
  12,127
  13,647
  15,255
  16,949
  18,727
  20,590
  22,535
  24,565
  26,678
  28,877
  31,164
  33,541
  36,012
  38,579
  41,247
  44,020
Total equity, $m
  545
  752
  1,013
  1,334
  1,721
  2,179
  2,712
  3,322
  4,012
  4,781
  5,630
  6,558
  7,564
  8,646
  9,802
  11,031
  12,331
  13,700
  15,138
  16,643
  18,216
  19,856
  21,564
  23,342
  25,191
  27,112
  29,109
  31,184
  33,340
  35,582
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,220
  1,683
  2,266
  2,984
  3,850
  4,875
  6,067
  7,432
  8,975
  10,696
  12,595
  14,672
  16,922
  19,342
  21,929
  24,678
  27,586
  30,649
  33,865
  37,233
  40,751
  44,421
  48,242
  52,219
  56,355
  60,653
  65,121
  69,763
  74,587
  79,602
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.040
  1.090
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447
  0.447

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  99
  158
  231
  321
  428
  555
  703
  871
  1,060
  1,271
  1,542
  1,795
  2,068
  2,361
  2,674
  3,006
  3,357
  3,726
  4,113
  4,518
  4,941
  5,382
  5,840
  6,318
  6,814
  7,330
  7,866
  8,424
  9,003
  9,605
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  76
  84
  94
  106
  121
  138
  159
  182
  208
  238
  215
  251
  289
  331
  375
  422
  472
  524
  579
  637
  697
  759
  825
  893
  963
  1,037
  1,113
  1,193
  1,275
  1,361
Funds from operations, $m
  175
  242
  325
  427
  549
  694
  861
  1,053
  1,268
  1,508
  1,758
  2,046
  2,357
  2,692
  3,049
  3,428
  3,828
  4,250
  4,692
  5,154
  5,637
  6,141
  6,665
  7,211
  7,778
  8,367
  8,980
  9,616
  10,278
  10,966
Change in working capital, $m
  31
  40
  51
  62
  75
  89
  103
  118
  134
  149
  165
  180
  195
  210
  224
  238
  252
  265
  279
  292
  305
  318
  331
  345
  358
  373
  387
  402
  418
  435
Cash from operations, $m
  144
  201
  274
  364
  474
  605
  758
  934
  1,135
  1,359
  1,593
  1,866
  2,162
  2,482
  2,825
  3,190
  3,576
  3,984
  4,413
  4,862
  5,332
  5,823
  6,334
  6,866
  7,419
  7,995
  8,593
  9,214
  9,860
  10,531
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -21
  -29
  -39
  -51
  -66
  -83
  -104
  -127
  -153
  -183
  -215
  -251
  -289
  -331
  -375
  -422
  -472
  -524
  -579
  -637
  -697
  -759
  -825
  -893
  -963
  -1,037
  -1,113
  -1,193
  -1,275
New CAPEX, $m
  -122
  -157
  -198
  -244
  -295
  -349
  -405
  -464
  -525
  -586
  -646
  -706
  -766
  -823
  -880
  -935
  -989
  -1,042
  -1,094
  -1,146
  -1,197
  -1,248
  -1,300
  -1,353
  -1,407
  -1,462
  -1,520
  -1,579
  -1,641
  -1,706
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -137
  -178
  -227
  -283
  -346
  -415
  -488
  -568
  -652
  -739
  -829
  -921
  -1,017
  -1,112
  -1,211
  -1,310
  -1,411
  -1,514
  -1,618
  -1,725
  -1,834
  -1,945
  -2,059
  -2,178
  -2,300
  -2,425
  -2,557
  -2,692
  -2,834
  -2,981
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  23
  47
  81
  129
  191
  269
  366
  483
  620
  764
  944
  1,146
  1,370
  1,614
  1,880
  2,165
  2,471
  2,795
  3,138
  3,499
  3,878
  4,274
  4,688
  5,120
  5,569
  6,036
  6,521
  7,026
  7,550
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  198
  256
  322
  397
  479
  567
  659
  755
  853
  952
  1,051
  1,148
  1,244
  1,338
  1,430
  1,520
  1,608
  1,694
  1,779
  1,862
  1,946
  2,029
  2,114
  2,199
  2,287
  2,377
  2,470
  2,567
  2,668
  2,773
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  60
  49
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  258
  305
  352
  397
  479
  567
  659
  755
  853
  952
  1,051
  1,148
  1,244
  1,338
  1,430
  1,520
  1,608
  1,694
  1,779
  1,862
  1,946
  2,029
  2,114
  2,199
  2,287
  2,377
  2,470
  2,567
  2,668
  2,773
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  266
  328
  399
  479
  607
  757
  928
  1,121
  1,336
  1,572
  1,814
  2,092
  2,390
  2,708
  3,045
  3,400
  3,773
  4,164
  4,573
  5,000
  5,445
  5,907
  6,388
  6,888
  7,407
  7,946
  8,506
  9,088
  9,694
  10,323
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -160
  -207
  -261
  -321
  -387
  -458
  -533
  -610
  -690
  -769
  -849
  -928
  -1,006
  -1,082
  -1,156
  -1,229
  -1,300
  -1,369
  -1,438
  -1,505
  -1,573
  -1,640
  -1,708
  -1,778
  -1,849
  -1,921
  -1,997
  -2,075
  -2,157
  -2,242
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  106
  121
  139
  158
  220
  299
  396
  511
  646
  803
  965
  1,164
  1,385
  1,626
  1,888
  2,171
  2,474
  2,795
  3,136
  3,495
  3,872
  4,267
  4,679
  5,110
  5,558
  6,025
  6,509
  7,013
  7,537
  8,081
Discount rate, %
  6.20
  6.51
  6.84
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.04
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.30
  25.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  100
  107
  114
  120
  153
  189
  226
  262
  294
  320
  335
  347
  351
  346
  333
  312
  286
  256
  223
  190
  158
  128
  101
  78
  58
  42
  30
  21
  14
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  93.1
  89.3
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6
  87.6

PGT Innovations, Inc., formerly PGT, Inc., is a manufacturer of impact-resistant windows and doors. The Company's brands include CGI, PGT Windows + Doors and WinDoor. CGI serves residential and commercial markets in both new and existing construction. CGI manufacturing and delivery facilities are based in Miami, Florida. PGT Custom Windows + Doors is a manufacturer and supplier of residential impact-resistant glass products. The Company's manufacturing, glass plant, and delivery facilities are located in North Venice, Florida. WinDoor serves five-star resorts, luxury high-rise condominiums and mansions along the United States coastline. WinDoor’s aluminum and vinyl products come in an array of expansive sizes, custom colors, and configurations. WinDoor manufacturing and delivery facilities are based in Orlando, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.6
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 5.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 186.5%
Total Debt to Equity 186.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity 20%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
EBITDA Margin 14.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Operating Margin 12.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

PGTI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PGTI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $698 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PGT Innovations, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of PGT Innovations, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PGTI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 41.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.2%, whose default value for PGTI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PGT Innovations, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PGT Innovations, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PGTI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $35 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PGTI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.2% for PGT Innovations, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PGT Innovations, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PGTI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PGTI are equal to 42%.

Life of production assets of 19.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PGT Innovations, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PGTI is equal to 10.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $385.544 million for PGT Innovations, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.083 million for PGT Innovations, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PGT Innovations, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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