Intrinsic value of PHI, Inc. - PHII

Previous Close

$1.35

  Intrinsic Value

$8.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+526%

Previous close

$1.35

 
Intrinsic value

$8.45

 
Up/down potential

+526%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PHII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.40
  11.66
  10.99
  10.39
  9.86
  9.37
  8.93
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
Revenue, $m
  652
  728
  808
  892
  980
  1,072
  1,167
  1,267
  1,371
  1,479
  1,591
  1,707
  1,828
  1,954
  2,085
  2,221
  2,362
  2,510
  2,663
  2,823
  2,989
  3,163
  3,344
  3,533
  3,731
  3,937
  4,153
  4,378
  4,614
  4,861
Variable operating expenses, $m
  395
  440
  487
  537
  589
  644
  701
  760
  821
  885
  944
  1,013
  1,085
  1,160
  1,237
  1,318
  1,402
  1,490
  1,581
  1,675
  1,774
  1,877
  1,985
  2,097
  2,214
  2,337
  2,465
  2,599
  2,739
  2,885
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  260
  265
  271
  277
  283
  289
  296
  302
  309
  316
  323
  330
  337
  344
  352
  360
  368
  376
  384
  393
  401
  410
  419
  428
  438
  447
  457
  467
  477
  488
Total operating expenses, $m
  655
  705
  758
  814
  872
  933
  997
  1,062
  1,130
  1,201
  1,267
  1,343
  1,422
  1,504
  1,589
  1,678
  1,770
  1,866
  1,965
  2,068
  2,175
  2,287
  2,404
  2,525
  2,652
  2,784
  2,922
  3,066
  3,216
  3,373
Operating income, $m
  -2
  23
  49
  78
  107
  138
  171
  205
  240
  277
  324
  364
  406
  450
  495
  543
  592
  644
  698
  755
  814
  876
  940
  1,008
  1,079
  1,153
  1,231
  1,312
  1,398
  1,488
EBITDA, $m
  80
  114
  150
  188
  227
  269
  313
  358
  405
  455
  506
  560
  616
  674
  734
  798
  863
  932
  1,004
  1,079
  1,157
  1,238
  1,324
  1,413
  1,507
  1,605
  1,707
  1,815
  1,927
  2,045
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  33
  39
  44
  50
  56
  63
  69
  76
  84
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  134
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  265
  280
  296
  312
  329
Earnings before tax, $m
  -36
  -16
  5
  28
  51
  76
  102
  129
  157
  186
  225
  257
  290
  325
  361
  399
  439
  480
  523
  569
  616
  665
  717
  772
  829
  888
  951
  1,017
  1,086
  1,158
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  1
  7
  14
  20
  27
  35
  42
  50
  61
  69
  78
  88
  98
  108
  118
  130
  141
  154
  166
  180
  194
  208
  224
  240
  257
  275
  293
  313
Net income, $m
  -36
  -16
  4
  20
  37
  55
  74
  94
  114
  136
  164
  187
  212
  237
  264
  291
  320
  350
  382
  415
  450
  486
  524
  563
  605
  648
  694
  742
  793
  846

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,575
  1,758
  1,952
  2,154
  2,367
  2,589
  2,820
  3,061
  3,311
  3,572
  3,842
  4,124
  4,416
  4,720
  5,036
  5,364
  5,706
  6,062
  6,432
  6,818
  7,220
  7,640
  8,077
  8,534
  9,011
  9,510
  10,031
  10,576
  11,145
  11,741
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,575
  1,758
  1,952
  2,154
  2,367
  2,589
  2,820
  3,061
  3,311
  3,572
  3,842
  4,124
  4,416
  4,720
  5,036
  5,364
  5,706
  6,062
  6,432
  6,818
  7,220
  7,640
  8,077
  8,534
  9,011
  9,510
  10,031
  10,576
  11,145
  11,741
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
Average production assets, $m
  1,062
  1,186
  1,316
  1,453
  1,596
  1,746
  1,902
  2,064
  2,233
  2,409
  2,591
  2,781
  2,978
  3,183
  3,396
  3,618
  3,848
  4,088
  4,338
  4,598
  4,869
  5,152
  5,448
  5,756
  6,077
  6,414
  6,765
  7,132
  7,516
  7,918
Working capital, $m
  226
  252
  280
  309
  339
  371
  404
  438
  474
  512
  550
  591
  633
  676
  721
  768
  817
  868
  921
  977
  1,034
  1,094
  1,157
  1,222
  1,291
  1,362
  1,437
  1,515
  1,596
  1,682
Total debt, $m
  713
  817
  926
  1,040
  1,159
  1,284
  1,414
  1,550
  1,691
  1,838
  1,990
  2,148
  2,313
  2,484
  2,662
  2,847
  3,039
  3,240
  3,448
  3,665
  3,892
  4,128
  4,374
  4,632
  4,900
  5,181
  5,474
  5,781
  6,102
  6,437
Total liabilities, $m
  887
  990
  1,099
  1,213
  1,333
  1,457
  1,588
  1,723
  1,864
  2,011
  2,163
  2,322
  2,486
  2,657
  2,835
  3,020
  3,213
  3,413
  3,621
  3,839
  4,065
  4,301
  4,548
  4,805
  5,073
  5,354
  5,647
  5,954
  6,275
  6,610
Total equity, $m
  688
  768
  853
  942
  1,034
  1,131
  1,232
  1,337
  1,447
  1,561
  1,679
  1,802
  1,930
  2,063
  2,201
  2,344
  2,494
  2,649
  2,811
  2,980
  3,155
  3,339
  3,530
  3,730
  3,938
  4,156
  4,383
  4,622
  4,870
  5,131
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,575
  1,758
  1,952
  2,155
  2,367
  2,588
  2,820
  3,060
  3,311
  3,572
  3,842
  4,124
  4,416
  4,720
  5,036
  5,364
  5,707
  6,062
  6,432
  6,819
  7,220
  7,640
  8,078
  8,535
  9,011
  9,510
  10,030
  10,576
  11,145
  11,741
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.040
  1.060
  1.090
  1.100
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437
  0.437

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -36
  -16
  4
  20
  37
  55
  74
  94
  114
  136
  164
  187
  212
  237
  264
  291
  320
  350
  382
  415
  450
  486
  524
  563
  605
  648
  694
  742
  793
  846
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  83
  91
  100
  110
  120
  131
  142
  153
  165
  177
  182
  196
  210
  224
  239
  255
  271
  288
  305
  324
  343
  363
  384
  405
  428
  452
  476
  502
  529
  558
Funds from operations, $m
  47
  76
  104
  130
  158
  186
  216
  247
  279
  313
  346
  383
  421
  461
  503
  546
  591
  638
  688
  739
  793
  849
  907
  969
  1,033
  1,100
  1,171
  1,245
  1,322
  1,403
Change in working capital, $m
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  85
Cash from operations, $m
  22
  49
  77
  101
  127
  154
  183
  212
  244
  276
  308
  343
  380
  418
  458
  499
  542
  587
  634
  684
  735
  789
  845
  903
  965
  1,029
  1,096
  1,166
  1,240
  1,318
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -67
  -75
  -84
  -93
  -102
  -112
  -123
  -134
  -145
  -157
  -170
  -182
  -196
  -210
  -224
  -239
  -255
  -271
  -288
  -305
  -324
  -343
  -363
  -384
  -405
  -428
  -452
  -476
  -502
  -529
New CAPEX, $m
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -222
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -336
  -351
  -367
  -384
  -402
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -184
  -199
  -214
  -230
  -245
  -262
  -279
  -296
  -314
  -333
  -353
  -372
  -393
  -415
  -437
  -461
  -485
  -511
  -538
  -565
  -595
  -626
  -658
  -692
  -727
  -764
  -803
  -843
  -886
  -931
Free cash flow, $m
  -162
  -149
  -137
  -128
  -118
  -108
  -96
  -84
  -71
  -57
  -45
  -29
  -13
  3
  20
  38
  57
  77
  97
  118
  140
  163
  187
  211
  237
  265
  293
  323
  354
  386
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  97
  103
  109
  114
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  281
  293
  307
  321
  336
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  111
  96
  81
  68
  55
  42
  27
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  208
  199
  190
  182
  175
  167
  157
  147
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  281
  293
  307
  321
  336
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  63
  70
  90
  108
  129
  151
  174
  198
  223
  249
  277
  305
  335
  366
  399
  433
  469
  506
  545
  586
  629
  675
  722
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -111
  -96
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -249
  -261
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -64
  -46
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -39
  -24
  -10
  6
  23
  41
  60
  80
  100
  121
  143
  166
  190
  216
  242
  269
  298
  327
  359
  391
  426
  462
Discount rate, %
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -59
  -38
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -13
  -7
  -2
  1
  3
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  79.4
  66.2
  57.6
  51.7
  47.7
  45.1
  43.6
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0
  43.0

PHI, Inc. is engaged in transportation of personnel to, from, and among offshore platforms for customers engaged in the oil and gas exploration, development and production industry. The Company offers these services in various domestic and international markets. Most of its offshore flight operations are concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico. The Company operates through three segments: Oil and Gas, Air Medical, and Technical Services. The Company also provides air medical transportation for hospitals and for emergency service agencies. In addition, it performs helicopter maintenance and repair services, primarily to existing customers that own their own aircraft. It owns or operates approximately 265 aircraft domestically and internationally, of which, over 155 belongs to its Oil and Gas segment, over 104 belongs to Air Medical segment and over six are in to other operations. Its principal customers are integrated energy companies and independent exploration and production companies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PHI, Inc. (PHII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

PHII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PHII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $580 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PHI, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of PHI, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PHII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for PHII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PHI, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PHI, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PHII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $254 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PHII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for PHI, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PHI, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PHII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PHII are equal to 162.9%.

Life of production assets of 14.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PHI, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PHII is equal to 34.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $612.654 million for PHI, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.819 million for PHI, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PHI, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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