Intrinsic value of Polaris Industries - PII

Previous Close

$79.35

  Intrinsic Value

$118.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+50%

Previous close

$79.35

 
Intrinsic value

$118.67

 
Up/down potential

+50%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  5,977
  6,550
  7,148
  7,771
  8,420
  9,094
  9,795
  10,524
  11,281
  12,068
  12,886
  13,737
  14,622
  15,542
  16,501
  17,499
  18,539
  19,624
  20,756
  21,936
  23,169
  24,457
  25,803
  27,209
  28,681
  30,220
  31,830
  33,516
  35,281
  37,130
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,503
  6,023
  6,566
  7,131
  7,720
  8,332
  8,969
  9,630
  10,317
  11,032
  11,696
  12,468
  13,271
  14,107
  14,977
  15,883
  16,827
  17,811
  18,838
  19,910
  21,029
  22,198
  23,419
  24,696
  26,031
  27,428
  28,890
  30,420
  32,022
  33,700
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,503
  6,023
  6,566
  7,131
  7,720
  8,332
  8,969
  9,630
  10,317
  11,032
  11,696
  12,468
  13,271
  14,107
  14,977
  15,883
  16,827
  17,811
  18,838
  19,910
  21,029
  22,198
  23,419
  24,696
  26,031
  27,428
  28,890
  30,420
  32,022
  33,700
Operating income, $m
  474
  527
  582
  640
  700
  762
  827
  894
  964
  1,037
  1,190
  1,269
  1,351
  1,436
  1,524
  1,617
  1,713
  1,813
  1,917
  2,026
  2,140
  2,259
  2,384
  2,514
  2,649
  2,792
  2,940
  3,096
  3,259
  3,430
EBITDA, $m
  708
  775
  846
  920
  997
  1,077
  1,160
  1,246
  1,335
  1,429
  1,525
  1,626
  1,731
  1,840
  1,953
  2,072
  2,195
  2,323
  2,457
  2,597
  2,743
  2,895
  3,054
  3,221
  3,395
  3,577
  3,768
  3,968
  4,177
  4,395
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  49
  61
  73
  86
  99
  113
  128
  143
  159
  175
  192
  209
  227
  246
  266
  287
  308
  330
  354
  378
  403
  430
  457
  486
  516
  548
  581
  616
  652
  690
Earnings before tax, $m
  425
  466
  509
  554
  600
  649
  699
  751
  806
  862
  999
  1,060
  1,123
  1,189
  1,258
  1,330
  1,404
  1,482
  1,564
  1,648
  1,737
  1,830
  1,926
  2,027
  2,133
  2,244
  2,359
  2,481
  2,607
  2,740
Tax expense, $m
  115
  126
  137
  150
  162
  175
  189
  203
  218
  233
  270
  286
  303
  321
  340
  359
  379
  400
  422
  445
  469
  494
  520
  547
  576
  606
  637
  670
  704
  740
Net income, $m
  310
  340
  372
  404
  438
  474
  510
  548
  588
  629
  729
  774
  820
  868
  918
  971
  1,025
  1,082
  1,141
  1,203
  1,268
  1,336
  1,406
  1,480
  1,557
  1,638
  1,722
  1,811
  1,903
  2,001

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,402
  3,728
  4,068
  4,423
  4,792
  5,176
  5,575
  5,990
  6,421
  6,869
  7,334
  7,818
  8,322
  8,846
  9,391
  9,960
  10,552
  11,169
  11,813
  12,485
  13,187
  13,920
  14,686
  15,486
  16,324
  17,200
  18,116
  19,076
  20,080
  21,133
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,402
  3,728
  4,068
  4,423
  4,792
  5,176
  5,575
  5,990
  6,421
  6,869
  7,334
  7,818
  8,322
  8,846
  9,391
  9,960
  10,552
  11,169
  11,813
  12,485
  13,187
  13,920
  14,686
  15,486
  16,324
  17,200
  18,116
  19,076
  20,080
  21,133
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
  1.757
Average production assets, $m
  1,243
  1,362
  1,487
  1,616
  1,751
  1,892
  2,037
  2,189
  2,347
  2,510
  2,680
  2,857
  3,041
  3,233
  3,432
  3,640
  3,856
  4,082
  4,317
  4,563
  4,819
  5,087
  5,367
  5,660
  5,966
  6,286
  6,621
  6,971
  7,339
  7,723
Working capital, $m
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
Total debt, $m
  1,129
  1,357
  1,595
  1,842
  2,100
  2,368
  2,647
  2,936
  3,237
  3,549
  3,874
  4,212
  4,564
  4,930
  5,310
  5,707
  6,120
  6,551
  7,001
  7,470
  7,959
  8,471
  9,006
  9,564
  10,149
  10,760
  11,400
  12,070
  12,771
  13,506
Total liabilities, $m
  2,374
  2,602
  2,840
  3,087
  3,345
  3,613
  3,891
  4,181
  4,482
  4,794
  5,119
  5,457
  5,809
  6,174
  6,555
  6,952
  7,365
  7,796
  8,246
  8,715
  9,204
  9,716
  10,251
  10,809
  11,394
  12,005
  12,645
  13,315
  14,016
  14,751
Total equity, $m
  1,027
  1,126
  1,229
  1,336
  1,447
  1,563
  1,684
  1,809
  1,939
  2,074
  2,215
  2,361
  2,513
  2,671
  2,836
  3,008
  3,187
  3,373
  3,568
  3,771
  3,982
  4,204
  4,435
  4,677
  4,930
  5,194
  5,471
  5,761
  6,064
  6,382
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,401
  3,728
  4,069
  4,423
  4,792
  5,176
  5,575
  5,990
  6,421
  6,868
  7,334
  7,818
  8,322
  8,845
  9,391
  9,960
  10,552
  11,169
  11,814
  12,486
  13,186
  13,920
  14,686
  15,486
  16,324
  17,199
  18,116
  19,076
  20,080
  21,133
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.100
  1.210
  1.300
  1.380
  1.450
  1.510
  1.570
  1.620
  1.670
  1.710
  1.750
  1.780
  1.820
  1.850
  1.870
  1.900
  1.920
  1.940
  1.960
  1.980
  2.000
  2.020
  2.030
  2.050
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  310
  340
  372
  404
  438
  474
  510
  548
  588
  629
  729
  774
  820
  868
  918
  971
  1,025
  1,082
  1,141
  1,203
  1,268
  1,336
  1,406
  1,480
  1,557
  1,638
  1,722
  1,811
  1,903
  2,001
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  233
  248
  264
  280
  297
  315
  333
  352
  371
  392
  335
  357
  380
  404
  429
  455
  482
  510
  540
  570
  602
  636
  671
  707
  746
  786
  828
  871
  917
  965
Funds from operations, $m
  544
  589
  635
  684
  735
  788
  843
  900
  959
  1,021
  1,064
  1,131
  1,200
  1,272
  1,347
  1,426
  1,507
  1,592
  1,681
  1,774
  1,870
  1,971
  2,077
  2,187
  2,303
  2,424
  2,550
  2,682
  2,821
  2,966
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  540
  585
  632
  681
  731
  784
  839
  896
  955
  1,016
  1,059
  1,126
  1,195
  1,267
  1,342
  1,420
  1,501
  1,586
  1,674
  1,767
  1,863
  1,964
  2,069
  2,179
  2,294
  2,414
  2,540
  2,672
  2,810
  2,955
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -141
  -155
  -170
  -186
  -202
  -219
  -236
  -255
  -274
  -293
  -314
  -335
  -357
  -380
  -404
  -429
  -455
  -482
  -510
  -540
  -570
  -602
  -636
  -671
  -707
  -746
  -786
  -828
  -871
  -917
New CAPEX, $m
  -112
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -216
  -226
  -235
  -246
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -335
  -351
  -367
  -385
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -253
  -274
  -294
  -316
  -337
  -359
  -382
  -407
  -432
  -457
  -484
  -512
  -541
  -571
  -603
  -637
  -671
  -708
  -745
  -786
  -826
  -870
  -916
  -964
  -1,013
  -1,066
  -1,121
  -1,179
  -1,238
  -1,302
Free cash flow, $m
  287
  311
  337
  365
  394
  425
  456
  489
  524
  559
  575
  614
  654
  695
  738
  783
  830
  878
  929
  981
  1,036
  1,093
  1,153
  1,215
  1,281
  1,349
  1,420
  1,494
  1,572
  1,653
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  216
  228
  238
  248
  258
  268
  279
  289
  301
  313
  325
  338
  351
  366
  381
  397
  413
  431
  449
  469
  490
  512
  535
  559
  584
  611
  640
  670
  701
  734
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  216
  228
  238
  248
  258
  268
  279
  289
  301
  313
  325
  338
  351
  366
  381
  397
  413
  431
  449
  469
  490
  512
  535
  559
  584
  611
  640
  670
  701
  734
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  503
  538
  575
  613
  652
  693
  735
  779
  825
  872
  900
  952
  1,005
  1,061
  1,119
  1,180
  1,243
  1,309
  1,378
  1,450
  1,526
  1,605
  1,688
  1,774
  1,865
  1,960
  2,059
  2,164
  2,273
  2,387
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -221
  -231
  -242
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -303
  -318
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  407
  440
  472
  506
  541
  577
  615
  654
  694
  737
  760
  805
  853
  903
  954
  1,008
  1,064
  1,123
  1,184
  1,247
  1,314
  1,384
  1,456
  1,533
  1,612
  1,695
  1,783
  1,874
  1,969
  2,070
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  391
  403
  411
  416
  419
  419
  415
  409
  399
  386
  361
  344
  324
  303
  280
  256
  232
  207
  182
  159
  136
  115
  95
  78
  63
  49
  38
  29
  21
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Polaris Industries Inc. designs, engineers and manufactures powersports vehicles, which include Off-Road Vehicles (ORV), including All-Terrain Vehicles (ATV) and side-by-side vehicles for recreational and utility use; Snowmobiles, Motorcycles and Global Adjacent Markets vehicles, including Work and Transportation and military vehicles. The Company's segments include ORV/Snowmobiles, Motorcycles, Global Adjacent Markets, and Other. Its ORVs includes the RZR sport side-by-side, the RANGER utility side-by-side, the GENERAL crossover side-by-side, the Sportsman ATV and the Polaris ACE. It produces a range of snowmobiles consisting of approximately 40 models. It offers a range of motorcycles under Indian motorcycles and Slingshot brands. The Global Adjacent Markets vehicles include low emission vehicles, light duty hauling, passenger vehicles and industrial vehicles. The Other segment includes business of TAP Automotive Holdings, LLC, a manufacturer of off-road Jeep and truck accessories.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Polaris Industries (PII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.5
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 5.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 32
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 131.3%
Total Debt to Equity 131.7%
Interest Coverage 21
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Return On Total Capital 12.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.9%
Return On Equity 23.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.8%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
EBITDA Margin 11%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Operating Margin 7.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Effective Tax Rate 31.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Payout Ratio 65.7%

PII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5428.477 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Polaris Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Polaris Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Polaris Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Polaris Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Polaris Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Polaris Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PII are equal to 20.8%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Polaris Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PII is equal to 0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $931.659 million for Polaris Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.245 million for Polaris Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Polaris Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.9 billion.

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