Intrinsic value of PJT Partners - PJT

Previous Close

$48.45

  Intrinsic Value

$7.80

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

Previous close

$48.45

 
Intrinsic value

$7.80

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as PJT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PJT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of PJT Partners (PJT) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.91
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  499
  509
  521
  534
  549
  566
  584
  604
  625
  649
  674
  700
  729
  759
  791
  825
  861
  900
  940
  983
  1,028
  1,076
  1,126
  1,179
  1,235
  1,293
  1,355
  1,420
  1,489
  1,561
  1,637
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  306
  313
  320
  329
  339
  350
  361
  374
  388
  402
  411
  427
  445
  464
  484
  505
  528
  551
  576
  603
  631
  660
  691
  724
  759
  795
  833
  873
  916
  960
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  243
  250
  256
  262
  269
  275
  282
  289
  297
  304
  312
  319
  327
  336
  344
Total operating expenses, $m
  460
  474
  485
  497
  510
  525
  540
  556
  574
  593
  612
  626
  648
  671
  696
  722
  748
  778
  807
  838
  872
  906
  942
  980
  1,021
  1,063
  1,107
  1,152
  1,200
  1,252
  1,304
Operating income, $m
  39
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  74
  81
  88
  95
  104
  113
  122
  133
  144
  156
  169
  183
  198
  214
  231
  249
  268
  288
  310
  333
EBITDA, $m
  53
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  62
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  97
  105
  113
  123
  133
  144
  156
  168
  182
  196
  212
  228
  246
  265
  285
  306
  328
  352
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  35
  43
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  77
  82
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  129
  139
  150
  162
  174
  188
  202
  217
  234
  251
  270
  290
  311
Tax expense, $m
  10
  9
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
Net income, $m
  -3
  26
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  183
  197
  211
  227

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  152
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  590
  447
  457
  469
  482
  497
  513
  530
  549
  569
  591
  615
  640
  666
  694
  724
  756
  790
  825
  863
  902
  944
  988
  1,035
  1,084
  1,136
  1,190
  1,247
  1,307
  1,371
  1,437
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  438
  447
  457
  469
  482
  497
  513
  530
  549
  569
  591
  615
  640
  666
  694
  724
  756
  790
  825
  863
  902
  944
  988
  1,035
  1,084
  1,136
  1,190
  1,247
  1,307
  1,371
  1,437
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.139
  1.139
  1.140
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.138
  1.140
  1.138
  1.141
  1.140
  1.138
  1.139
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.139
  1.139
  1.138
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
  1.139
Average production assets, $m
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
Working capital, $m
  0
  -155
  -159
  -163
  -167
  -173
  -178
  -184
  -191
  -198
  -205
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -241
  -252
  -263
  -274
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -328
  -343
  -360
  -377
  -394
  -413
  -433
  -454
  -476
  -499
Total debt, $m
  0
  -197
  -188
  -177
  -165
  -152
  -138
  -122
  -105
  -86
  -67
  -46
  -23
  1
  26
  53
  82
  112
  144
  178
  213
  251
  291
  332
  377
  423
  472
  523
  577
  634
  694
Total liabilities, $m
  599
  402
  411
  422
  434
  447
  461
  477
  494
  513
  532
  553
  576
  600
  625
  652
  681
  711
  743
  777
  812
  850
  890
  931
  976
  1,022
  1,071
  1,122
  1,176
  1,233
  1,293
Total equity, $m
  -9
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  590
  447
  457
  469
  482
  497
  512
  530
  549
  570
  591
  614
  640
  667
  694
  724
  757
  790
  826
  863
  902
  944
  989
  1,034
  1,084
  1,136
  1,190
  1,247
  1,307
  1,370
  1,437
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -4.400
  -4.100
  -3.770
  -3.430
  -3.060
  -2.680
  -2.300
  -1.910
  -1.520
  -1.130
  -0.740
  -0.360
  0.010
  0.370
  0.730
  1.080
  1.420
  1.740
  2.060
  2.360
  2.660
  2.940
  3.210
  3.470
  3.720
  3.970
  4.200
  4.420
  4.630
  4.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.368
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  26
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  183
  197
  211
  227
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
Funds from operations, $m
  119
  39
  45
  45
  47
  48
  50
  53
  55
  59
  62
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  162
  174
  187
  200
  215
  230
  246
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from operations, $m
  117
  42
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  110
  118
  126
  135
  145
  156
  167
  179
  192
  206
  220
  236
  252
  269
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
Free cash flow, $m
  105
  35
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  56
  59
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  95
  103
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  171
  184
  197
  211
  226
  243
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -197
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  180
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -29
  -17
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  74
  18
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  83
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  135
  144
  155
  166
  177
  190
  203
  217
  233
  248
  265
  283
  302
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -102
  -206
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  152
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -35
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  131
  141
  151
  161
  173
  185
  198
  212
  227
  243
  259
  277
  296
Discount rate, %
 
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -33
  43
  42
  41
  40
  39
  37
  36
  34
  32
  29
  27
  25
  23
  20
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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PJT Partners Inc. is an advisory-focused investment bank. The Company offers an array of strategic advisory, restructuring and special situations and private fund advisory and placement services to corporations, financial sponsors, institutional investors and governments. It provides, through Park Hill Group, private fund advisory and placement services for alternative investment managers, including private equity funds, real estate funds and hedge funds. Its advisory business offers a range of financial advisory and transaction execution capability, including mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures, minority investments, asset swaps, divestitures, takeover defenses, corporate finance advisory, private placements and distressed sales. Its Restructuring and Special Situations Group's services include advising companies, creditors and financial sponsors on recapitalizations, reorganizations, exchange offers, debt repurchases, capital raises, and distressed mergers and acquisitions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PJT Partners (PJT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -290.7
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book -96.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -62.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 5.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Operating Margin 7.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin -0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate 66.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.9%
Payout Ratio -133.3%

PJT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PJT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $499 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PJT Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PJT Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PJT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for PJT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PJT Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PJT Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PJT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $164 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PJT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for PJT Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PJT Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PJT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PJT are equal to 10.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PJT Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PJT is equal to -30.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-9 million for PJT Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.211 million for PJT Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PJT Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ PJT Partners reports 4Q loss   [Feb-07-18 07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Sell PJT Partners Inc (PJT) At This PE Ratio?   [Dec-01-17 07:50AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ PJT Partners posts 3Q profit   [Oct-31-17 09:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy Partner Jet Corp (TSXV:PJT) At $0.26?   [Oct-05-17 03:00PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ MOVES-Morgan Stanley's Antakly moves to PJT   [Oct-04-17 09:17AM  Reuters]
▶ [$$] PJT Cleared In Caspersen Stock Drop Lawsuit   [Sep-12-17 05:41PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Bon-Ton Stores Hires Restructuring Adviser to Explore Turnaround   [Sep-07-17 02:46PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ PJT Partners posts 2Q profit   [Aug-02-17 10:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ PJT Partners posts 2Q profit   [07:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ PJT's Coleman Says Puerto Rico Board Is Breaking the Law   [Jun-28-17 03:09PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PJT Partners, Inc. : June 6, 2017   [Jun-06-17 11:47AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PJT Partners, Inc. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 01:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PJT Partners, Inc. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ PJT Partners posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 07:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PJT Partners, Inc. : April 26, 2017   [Apr-26-17 03:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [Mar-27-17 12:11PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ PJT Partners posts 4Q profit   [08:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About PJT Partners Inc (PJT)   [Dec-11-16 05:45AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Brazil's Telecom Oi Hires Laplace as Financial Adviser   [Nov-22-16 08:49AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of PJT
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