Intrinsic value of Packaging of America - PKG

Previous Close

$96.11

  Intrinsic Value

$110.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+15%

Previous close

$96.11

 
Intrinsic value

$110.61

 
Up/down potential

+15%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of PKG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  7,193
  7,979
  8,805
  9,669
  10,571
  11,511
  12,491
  13,510
  14,569
  15,670
  16,814
  18,003
  19,239
  20,523
  21,859
  23,249
  24,696
  26,203
  27,773
  29,409
  31,115
  32,896
  34,754
  36,695
  38,723
  40,843
  43,059
  45,377
  47,803
  50,342
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,545
  6,137
  6,759
  7,409
  8,089
  8,797
  9,534
  10,301
  11,099
  11,928
  12,660
  13,555
  14,485
  15,453
  16,459
  17,505
  18,595
  19,729
  20,911
  22,143
  23,428
  24,768
  26,168
  27,629
  29,156
  30,752
  32,421
  34,166
  35,993
  37,904
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  554
  566
  579
  591
  604
  618
  631
  645
  659
  674
  689
  704
  719
  735
  751
  768
  785
  802
  820
  838
  856
  875
  894
  914
  934
  954
  975
  997
  1,019
  1,041
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,099
  6,703
  7,338
  8,000
  8,693
  9,415
  10,165
  10,946
  11,758
  12,602
  13,349
  14,259
  15,204
  16,188
  17,210
  18,273
  19,380
  20,531
  21,731
  22,981
  24,284
  25,643
  27,062
  28,543
  30,090
  31,706
  33,396
  35,163
  37,012
  38,945
Operating income, $m
  1,094
  1,276
  1,468
  1,668
  1,878
  2,097
  2,326
  2,563
  2,811
  3,068
  3,466
  3,744
  4,034
  4,336
  4,649
  4,976
  5,317
  5,672
  6,042
  6,428
  6,832
  7,253
  7,693
  8,152
  8,633
  9,136
  9,663
  10,214
  10,792
  11,397
EBITDA, $m
  1,596
  1,819
  2,054
  2,299
  2,556
  2,824
  3,103
  3,394
  3,696
  4,011
  4,338
  4,679
  5,033
  5,401
  5,784
  6,183
  6,599
  7,032
  7,484
  7,955
  8,447
  8,960
  9,496
  10,057
  10,643
  11,256
  11,898
  12,570
  13,273
  14,010
Interest expense (income), $m
  88
  143
  168
  195
  223
  252
  282
  314
  347
  381
  417
  454
  492
  532
  574
  617
  662
  709
  757
  808
  861
  916
  973
  1,033
  1,096
  1,161
  1,229
  1,301
  1,375
  1,453
  1,535
Earnings before tax, $m
  951
  1,108
  1,273
  1,446
  1,626
  1,815
  2,012
  2,217
  2,430
  2,652
  3,012
  3,252
  3,502
  3,762
  4,033
  4,315
  4,608
  4,915
  5,234
  5,568
  5,916
  6,279
  6,659
  7,057
  7,472
  7,907
  8,363
  8,839
  9,339
  9,862
Tax expense, $m
  257
  299
  344
  390
  439
  490
  543
  599
  656
  716
  813
  878
  946
  1,016
  1,089
  1,165
  1,244
  1,327
  1,413
  1,503
  1,597
  1,695
  1,798
  1,905
  2,018
  2,135
  2,258
  2,387
  2,521
  2,663
Net income, $m
  694
  809
  929
  1,055
  1,187
  1,325
  1,469
  1,618
  1,774
  1,936
  2,199
  2,374
  2,556
  2,746
  2,944
  3,150
  3,364
  3,588
  3,821
  4,064
  4,318
  4,584
  4,861
  5,151
  5,455
  5,772
  6,105
  6,453
  6,817
  7,199

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,916
  7,672
  8,466
  9,297
  10,164
  11,069
  12,010
  12,990
  14,009
  15,067
  16,167
  17,311
  18,499
  19,734
  21,019
  22,355
  23,746
  25,195
  26,704
  28,278
  29,918
  31,630
  33,418
  35,284
  37,234
  39,272
  41,403
  43,632
  45,964
  48,406
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,916
  7,672
  8,466
  9,297
  10,164
  11,069
  12,010
  12,990
  14,009
  15,067
  16,167
  17,311
  18,499
  19,734
  21,019
  22,355
  23,746
  25,195
  26,704
  28,278
  29,918
  31,630
  33,418
  35,284
  37,234
  39,272
  41,403
  43,632
  45,964
  48,406
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
Average production assets, $m
  3,920
  4,349
  4,799
  5,269
  5,761
  6,274
  6,807
  7,363
  7,940
  8,540
  9,164
  9,812
  10,485
  11,185
  11,913
  12,671
  13,459
  14,281
  15,136
  16,028
  16,958
  17,928
  18,941
  19,999
  21,104
  22,259
  23,467
  24,731
  26,053
  27,436
Working capital, $m
  1,136
  1,261
  1,391
  1,528
  1,670
  1,819
  1,974
  2,135
  2,302
  2,476
  2,657
  2,844
  3,040
  3,243
  3,454
  3,673
  3,902
  4,140
  4,388
  4,647
  4,916
  5,198
  5,491
  5,798
  6,118
  6,453
  6,803
  7,170
  7,553
  7,954
Total debt, $m
  3,117
  3,608
  4,122
  4,660
  5,222
  5,808
  6,419
  7,053
  7,713
  8,399
  9,112
  9,853
  10,623
  11,423
  12,256
  13,122
  14,023
  14,962
  15,940
  16,960
  18,023
  19,132
  20,290
  21,500
  22,763
  24,084
  25,465
  26,909
  28,421
  30,003
Total liabilities, $m
  4,481
  4,972
  5,486
  6,024
  6,586
  7,173
  7,783
  8,418
  9,078
  9,764
  10,476
  11,217
  11,987
  12,788
  13,620
  14,486
  15,388
  16,326
  17,304
  18,324
  19,387
  20,497
  21,655
  22,864
  24,128
  25,448
  26,829
  28,274
  29,785
  31,367
Total equity, $m
  2,434
  2,701
  2,980
  3,273
  3,578
  3,896
  4,228
  4,572
  4,931
  5,304
  5,691
  6,093
  6,512
  6,946
  7,399
  7,869
  8,359
  8,869
  9,400
  9,954
  10,531
  11,134
  11,763
  12,420
  13,106
  13,824
  14,574
  15,359
  16,179
  17,039
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,915
  7,673
  8,466
  9,297
  10,164
  11,069
  12,011
  12,990
  14,009
  15,068
  16,167
  17,310
  18,499
  19,734
  21,019
  22,355
  23,747
  25,195
  26,704
  28,278
  29,918
  31,631
  33,418
  35,284
  37,234
  39,272
  41,403
  43,633
  45,964
  48,406
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.280
  1.340
  1.380
  1.420
  1.460
  1.490
  1.520
  1.540
  1.560
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.740
  1.750
  1.750
  1.760
  1.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  694
  809
  929
  1,055
  1,187
  1,325
  1,469
  1,618
  1,774
  1,936
  2,199
  2,374
  2,556
  2,746
  2,944
  3,150
  3,364
  3,588
  3,821
  4,064
  4,318
  4,584
  4,861
  5,151
  5,455
  5,772
  6,105
  6,453
  6,817
  7,199
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  503
  543
  586
  631
  678
  727
  778
  831
  886
  943
  873
  934
  999
  1,065
  1,135
  1,207
  1,282
  1,360
  1,442
  1,526
  1,615
  1,707
  1,804
  1,905
  2,010
  2,120
  2,235
  2,355
  2,481
  2,613
Funds from operations, $m
  1,197
  1,352
  1,515
  1,686
  1,865
  2,052
  2,246
  2,449
  2,659
  2,879
  3,071
  3,308
  3,555
  3,811
  4,078
  4,356
  4,646
  4,948
  5,262
  5,591
  5,933
  6,291
  6,665
  7,056
  7,465
  7,892
  8,340
  8,808
  9,298
  9,812
Change in working capital, $m
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  238
  248
  259
  270
  281
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
Cash from operations, $m
  1,078
  1,228
  1,385
  1,550
  1,723
  1,903
  2,092
  2,288
  2,492
  2,705
  2,891
  3,121
  3,360
  3,608
  3,867
  4,137
  4,417
  4,710
  5,014
  5,332
  5,664
  6,010
  6,372
  6,749
  7,144
  7,557
  7,989
  8,442
  8,915
  9,411
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -334
  -373
  -414
  -457
  -502
  -549
  -597
  -648
  -701
  -756
  -813
  -873
  -934
  -999
  -1,065
  -1,135
  -1,207
  -1,282
  -1,360
  -1,442
  -1,526
  -1,615
  -1,707
  -1,804
  -1,905
  -2,010
  -2,120
  -2,235
  -2,355
  -2,481
New CAPEX, $m
  -410
  -429
  -450
  -471
  -492
  -513
  -534
  -555
  -577
  -600
  -624
  -648
  -673
  -700
  -728
  -758
  -789
  -821
  -855
  -892
  -930
  -970
  -1,013
  -1,058
  -1,105
  -1,155
  -1,208
  -1,263
  -1,322
  -1,384
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -744
  -802
  -864
  -928
  -994
  -1,062
  -1,131
  -1,203
  -1,278
  -1,356
  -1,437
  -1,521
  -1,607
  -1,699
  -1,793
  -1,893
  -1,996
  -2,103
  -2,215
  -2,334
  -2,456
  -2,585
  -2,720
  -2,862
  -3,010
  -3,165
  -3,328
  -3,498
  -3,677
  -3,865
Free cash flow, $m
  334
  426
  521
  622
  729
  842
  960
  1,084
  1,214
  1,348
  1,454
  1,600
  1,752
  1,910
  2,074
  2,245
  2,422
  2,607
  2,799
  2,999
  3,207
  3,425
  3,651
  3,888
  4,134
  4,392
  4,662
  4,943
  5,238
  5,546
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  467
  490
  514
  538
  562
  586
  610
  635
  660
  686
  713
  741
  770
  800
  832
  866
  901
  939
  978
  1,020
  1,063
  1,109
  1,158
  1,209
  1,264
  1,321
  1,381
  1,444
  1,511
  1,582
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  467
  490
  514
  538
  562
  586
  610
  635
  660
  686
  713
  741
  770
  800
  832
  866
  901
  939
  978
  1,020
  1,063
  1,109
  1,158
  1,209
  1,264
  1,321
  1,381
  1,444
  1,511
  1,582
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  801
  916
  1,035
  1,160
  1,291
  1,428
  1,571
  1,719
  1,874
  2,034
  2,167
  2,341
  2,522
  2,710
  2,906
  3,111
  3,324
  3,545
  3,777
  4,018
  4,271
  4,534
  4,809
  5,097
  5,398
  5,713
  6,043
  6,388
  6,749
  7,128
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -252
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -305
  -318
  -331
  -345
  -359
  -373
  -387
  -402
  -418
  -435
  -452
  -470
  -490
  -510
  -531
  -554
  -578
  -603
  -629
  -657
  -686
  -717
  -750
  -785
  -821
  -859
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  549
  650
  756
  868
  986
  1,110
  1,239
  1,374
  1,515
  1,662
  1,779
  1,938
  2,104
  2,275
  2,454
  2,640
  2,834
  3,036
  3,246
  3,465
  3,693
  3,931
  4,180
  4,440
  4,712
  4,995
  5,292
  5,603
  5,928
  6,269
Discount rate, %
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  515
  568
  612
  647
  670
  683
  685
  675
  656
  627
  579
  537
  490
  440
  389
  337
  288
  240
  197
  158
  125
  96
  72
  53
  38
  26
  18
  12
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a producer of containerboard products and uncoated freesheet. The Company operates through three segments: Packaging, Paper, and Corporate and Other. The Packaging segment produces a range of corrugated packaging products. The Paper segment manufactures and sells a range of papers, including communication-based papers and pressure sensitive papers. The Company's containerboard mills produces linerboard and semi-chemical corrugating medium, which are papers primarily used in the production of corrugated products. The Company's corrugated products manufacturing plants produce a range of corrugated packaging products, including conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods, multi-color boxes and displays. The Company also produces packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Packaging of America (PKG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.1
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 5.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 150%
Total Debt to Equity 151.5%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Total Capital 10.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Equity 26.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
EBITDA Margin 19.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.2%
Operating Margin 13.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 48%

PKG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PKG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6444.9 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Packaging of America. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Packaging of America. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PKG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for PKG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Packaging of America, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Packaging of America.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PKG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $542 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PKG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Packaging of America.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Packaging of America. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PKG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PKG are equal to 54.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Packaging of America operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PKG is equal to 15.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2182.6 million for Packaging of America - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 94.498 million for Packaging of America is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Packaging of America at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.1 billion.

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