Intrinsic value of Packaging of America - PKG

Previous Close

$115.70

  Intrinsic Value

$116.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

0%

Previous close

$115.70

 
Intrinsic value

$116.11

 
Up/down potential

0%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of PKG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 10.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.50
  10.85
  10.27
  9.74
  9.26
  8.84
  8.45
  8.11
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.20
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  7,186
  7,966
  8,784
  9,639
  10,532
  11,463
  12,432
  13,440
  14,488
  15,577
  16,709
  17,886
  19,108
  20,379
  21,701
  23,077
  24,509
  26,000
  27,553
  29,173
  30,862
  32,625
  34,465
  36,386
  38,394
  40,493
  42,688
  44,984
  47,386
  49,900
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,540
  6,127
  6,743
  7,387
  8,059
  8,760
  9,490
  10,249
  11,038
  11,858
  12,581
  13,467
  14,387
  15,344
  16,340
  17,375
  18,453
  19,576
  20,746
  21,965
  23,237
  24,564
  25,950
  27,397
  28,909
  30,489
  32,141
  33,870
  35,679
  37,572
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  553
  565
  577
  590
  603
  616
  630
  644
  658
  673
  687
  702
  718
  734
  750
  766
  783
  800
  818
  836
  854
  873
  892
  912
  932
  953
  974
  995
  1,017
  1,039
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,093
  6,692
  7,320
  7,977
  8,662
  9,376
  10,120
  10,893
  11,696
  12,531
  13,268
  14,169
  15,105
  16,078
  17,090
  18,141
  19,236
  20,376
  21,564
  22,801
  24,091
  25,437
  26,842
  28,309
  29,841
  31,442
  33,115
  34,865
  36,696
  38,611
Operating income, $m
  1,093
  1,274
  1,463
  1,662
  1,870
  2,086
  2,312
  2,547
  2,792
  3,047
  3,441
  3,716
  4,003
  4,301
  4,612
  4,935
  5,272
  5,623
  5,989
  6,371
  6,770
  7,187
  7,623
  8,078
  8,554
  9,052
  9,573
  10,119
  10,690
  11,289
EBITDA, $m
  1,681
  1,911
  2,153
  2,406
  2,671
  2,947
  3,235
  3,534
  3,846
  4,170
  4,507
  4,857
  5,222
  5,601
  5,996
  6,407
  6,836
  7,282
  7,747
  8,233
  8,739
  9,269
  9,821
  10,399
  11,003
  11,635
  12,297
  12,989
  13,714
  14,473
Interest expense (income), $m
  88
  143
  168
  194
  222
  251
  281
  312
  345
  379
  414
  450
  489
  528
  569
  612
  657
  703
  751
  801
  853
  908
  965
  1,024
  1,086
  1,151
  1,218
  1,289
  1,363
  1,440
  1,521
Earnings before tax, $m
  950
  1,106
  1,269
  1,440
  1,619
  1,806
  2,000
  2,203
  2,414
  2,633
  2,990
  3,228
  3,475
  3,732
  4,000
  4,279
  4,569
  4,872
  5,188
  5,518
  5,863
  6,222
  6,598
  6,992
  7,403
  7,834
  8,284
  8,756
  9,251
  9,769
Tax expense, $m
  257
  299
  343
  389
  437
  487
  540
  595
  652
  711
  807
  872
  938
  1,008
  1,080
  1,155
  1,234
  1,315
  1,401
  1,490
  1,583
  1,680
  1,782
  1,888
  1,999
  2,115
  2,237
  2,364
  2,498
  2,638
Net income, $m
  694
  807
  926
  1,051
  1,182
  1,318
  1,460
  1,608
  1,762
  1,922
  2,183
  2,356
  2,537
  2,724
  2,920
  3,123
  3,335
  3,557
  3,787
  4,028
  4,280
  4,542
  4,817
  5,104
  5,404
  5,719
  6,047
  6,392
  6,753
  7,131

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,910
  7,659
  8,446
  9,268
  10,127
  11,022
  11,954
  12,923
  13,931
  14,978
  16,067
  17,198
  18,373
  19,595
  20,867
  22,189
  23,566
  25,000
  26,494
  28,051
  29,675
  31,370
  33,139
  34,987
  36,918
  38,936
  41,046
  43,254
  45,564
  47,981
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,910
  7,659
  8,446
  9,268
  10,127
  11,022
  11,954
  12,923
  13,931
  14,978
  16,067
  17,198
  18,373
  19,595
  20,867
  22,189
  23,566
  25,000
  26,494
  28,051
  29,675
  31,370
  33,139
  34,987
  36,918
  38,936
  41,046
  43,254
  45,564
  47,981
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
Average production assets, $m
  4,585
  5,082
  5,604
  6,150
  6,719
  7,313
  7,932
  8,575
  9,243
  9,938
  10,660
  11,411
  12,191
  13,002
  13,845
  14,723
  15,636
  16,588
  17,579
  18,612
  19,690
  20,815
  21,988
  23,215
  24,496
  25,835
  27,235
  28,700
  30,232
  31,836
Working capital, $m
  402
  446
  492
  540
  590
  642
  696
  753
  811
  872
  936
  1,002
  1,070
  1,141
  1,215
  1,292
  1,372
  1,456
  1,543
  1,634
  1,728
  1,827
  1,930
  2,038
  2,150
  2,268
  2,391
  2,519
  2,654
  2,794
Total debt, $m
  3,114
  3,600
  4,109
  4,642
  5,198
  5,778
  6,382
  7,010
  7,663
  8,342
  9,047
  9,780
  10,542
  11,334
  12,158
  13,015
  13,907
  14,836
  15,804
  16,813
  17,866
  18,964
  20,110
  21,308
  22,559
  23,867
  25,234
  26,665
  28,161
  29,728
Total liabilities, $m
  4,478
  4,963
  5,473
  6,006
  6,562
  7,142
  7,746
  8,374
  9,027
  9,706
  10,411
  11,144
  11,906
  12,698
  13,522
  14,379
  15,271
  16,200
  17,168
  18,177
  19,229
  20,328
  21,474
  22,672
  23,923
  25,230
  26,598
  28,028
  29,525
  31,092
Total equity, $m
  2,432
  2,696
  2,973
  3,262
  3,565
  3,880
  4,208
  4,549
  4,904
  5,272
  5,655
  6,054
  6,467
  6,898
  7,345
  7,811
  8,295
  8,800
  9,326
  9,874
  10,446
  11,042
  11,665
  12,315
  12,995
  13,705
  14,448
  15,225
  16,038
  16,889
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,910
  7,659
  8,446
  9,268
  10,127
  11,022
  11,954
  12,923
  13,931
  14,978
  16,066
  17,198
  18,373
  19,596
  20,867
  22,190
  23,566
  25,000
  26,494
  28,051
  29,675
  31,370
  33,139
  34,987
  36,918
  38,935
  41,046
  43,253
  45,563
  47,981
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.280
  1.340
  1.380
  1.420
  1.460
  1.490
  1.520
  1.540
  1.560
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.740
  1.750
  1.750
  1.760
  1.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352
  0.352

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  694
  807
  926
  1,051
  1,182
  1,318
  1,460
  1,608
  1,762
  1,922
  2,183
  2,356
  2,537
  2,724
  2,920
  3,123
  3,335
  3,557
  3,787
  4,028
  4,280
  4,542
  4,817
  5,104
  5,404
  5,719
  6,047
  6,392
  6,753
  7,131
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  588
  638
  690
  744
  801
  861
  922
  987
  1,054
  1,123
  1,066
  1,141
  1,219
  1,300
  1,385
  1,472
  1,564
  1,659
  1,758
  1,861
  1,969
  2,081
  2,199
  2,321
  2,450
  2,583
  2,724
  2,870
  3,023
  3,184
Funds from operations, $m
  1,281
  1,445
  1,616
  1,795
  1,983
  2,179
  2,383
  2,595
  2,816
  3,045
  3,249
  3,497
  3,756
  4,025
  4,304
  4,596
  4,899
  5,215
  5,545
  5,889
  6,249
  6,624
  7,016
  7,425
  7,854
  8,302
  8,771
  9,262
  9,776
  10,315
Change in working capital, $m
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
Cash from operations, $m
  1,240
  1,401
  1,570
  1,748
  1,933
  2,127
  2,328
  2,538
  2,757
  2,984
  3,186
  3,432
  3,687
  3,953
  4,230
  4,519
  4,819
  5,132
  5,458
  5,799
  6,154
  6,525
  6,913
  7,318
  7,741
  8,184
  8,648
  9,133
  9,642
  10,174
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -411
  -458
  -508
  -560
  -615
  -672
  -731
  -793
  -857
  -924
  -994
  -1,066
  -1,141
  -1,219
  -1,300
  -1,385
  -1,472
  -1,564
  -1,659
  -1,758
  -1,861
  -1,969
  -2,081
  -2,199
  -2,321
  -2,450
  -2,583
  -2,724
  -2,870
  -3,023
New CAPEX, $m
  -475
  -497
  -522
  -546
  -570
  -594
  -618
  -643
  -669
  -695
  -722
  -750
  -780
  -811
  -843
  -878
  -913
  -951
  -991
  -1,033
  -1,078
  -1,125
  -1,174
  -1,226
  -1,281
  -1,339
  -1,400
  -1,465
  -1,533
  -1,604
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -886
  -955
  -1,030
  -1,106
  -1,185
  -1,266
  -1,349
  -1,436
  -1,526
  -1,619
  -1,716
  -1,816
  -1,921
  -2,030
  -2,143
  -2,263
  -2,385
  -2,515
  -2,650
  -2,791
  -2,939
  -3,094
  -3,255
  -3,425
  -3,602
  -3,789
  -3,983
  -4,189
  -4,403
  -4,627
Free cash flow, $m
  354
  445
  540
  641
  748
  861
  979
  1,102
  1,231
  1,365
  1,470
  1,615
  1,766
  1,923
  2,087
  2,257
  2,433
  2,617
  2,808
  3,008
  3,215
  3,432
  3,657
  3,893
  4,139
  4,396
  4,664
  4,945
  5,239
  5,546
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  463
  486
  509
  533
  556
  580
  604
  628
  653
  679
  705
  733
  762
  792
  824
  857
  892
  929
  968
  1,009
  1,052
  1,098
  1,147
  1,197
  1,251
  1,308
  1,367
  1,430
  1,497
  1,567
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  463
  486
  509
  533
  556
  580
  604
  628
  653
  679
  705
  733
  762
  792
  824
  857
  892
  929
  968
  1,009
  1,052
  1,098
  1,147
  1,197
  1,251
  1,308
  1,367
  1,430
  1,497
  1,567
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  817
  931
  1,050
  1,174
  1,305
  1,441
  1,582
  1,730
  1,884
  2,044
  2,175
  2,348
  2,528
  2,715
  2,910
  3,114
  3,325
  3,546
  3,776
  4,017
  4,268
  4,530
  4,804
  5,090
  5,390
  5,704
  6,032
  6,376
  6,736
  7,113
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -249
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -383
  -398
  -414
  -430
  -447
  -466
  -485
  -505
  -526
  -548
  -572
  -597
  -623
  -650
  -680
  -710
  -743
  -777
  -813
  -851
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
Cash available for distribution, $m
  567
  667
  773
  885
  1,002
  1,126
  1,254
  1,389
  1,529
  1,675
  1,792
  1,950
  2,114
  2,285
  2,463
  2,648
  2,841
  3,041
  3,250
  3,468
  3,696
  3,933
  4,181
  4,440
  4,710
  4,993
  5,289
  5,599
  5,923
  6,262
Discount rate, %
  6.40
  6.72
  7.06
  7.41
  7.78
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.93
  10.42
  10.95
  11.49
  12.07
  12.67
  13.31
  13.97
  14.67
  15.40
  16.17
  16.98
  17.83
  18.72
  19.66
  20.64
  21.67
  22.76
  23.89
  25.09
  26.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  533
  586
  630
  665
  689
  703
  705
  697
  678
  650
  602
  561
  514
  464
  411
  359
  308
  259
  214
  173
  137
  106
  81
  60
  43
  30
  21
  14
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is a producer of containerboard products and uncoated freesheet. The Company operates through three segments: Packaging, Paper, and Corporate and Other. The Packaging segment produces a range of corrugated packaging products. The Paper segment manufactures and sells a range of papers, including communication-based papers and pressure sensitive papers. The Company's containerboard mills produces linerboard and semi-chemical corrugating medium, which are papers primarily used in the production of corrugated products. The Company's corrugated products manufacturing plants produce a range of corrugated packaging products, including conventional shipping containers used to protect and transport manufactured goods, multi-color boxes and displays. The Company also produces packaging for meat, fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Packaging of America (PKG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.2
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 6.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -12.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 150%
Total Debt to Equity 151.5%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Return On Total Capital 10.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Equity 26.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 22.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
EBITDA Margin 19.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.2%
Operating Margin 13.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 48%

PKG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PKG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6445 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Packaging of America. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Packaging of America. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PKG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.4%, whose default value for PKG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Packaging of America, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Packaging of America.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PKG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $541 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PKG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Packaging of America.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Packaging of America. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PKG stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PKG are equal to 63.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Packaging of America operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PKG is equal to 5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2183 million for Packaging of America - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 94 million for Packaging of America is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Packaging of America at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.9 billion.

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