Intrinsic value of Children's Place - PLCE

Previous Close

$154.65

  Intrinsic Value

$175.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+13%

Previous close

$154.65

 
Intrinsic value

$175.43

 
Up/down potential

+13%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PLCE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.42
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  1,785
  1,846
  1,911
  1,982
  2,058
  2,139
  2,226
  2,319
  2,417
  2,521
  2,631
  2,748
  2,872
  3,003
  3,140
  3,286
  3,439
  3,601
  3,772
  3,951
  4,140
  4,339
  4,549
  4,769
  5,001
  5,244
  5,500
  5,770
  6,053
  6,350
  6,663
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  349
  361
  375
  389
  404
  421
  438
  457
  476
  497
  519
  543
  567
  594
  621
  650
  681
  713
  747
  783
  820
  860
  901
  945
  991
  1,040
  1,090
  1,144
  1,200
  1,259
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,376
  1,410
  1,445
  1,481
  1,518
  1,556
  1,595
  1,635
  1,676
  1,718
  1,761
  1,805
  1,850
  1,896
  1,944
  1,992
  2,042
  2,093
  2,145
  2,199
  2,254
  2,310
  2,368
  2,427
  2,488
  2,550
  2,614
  2,679
  2,746
  2,815
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,638
  1,725
  1,771
  1,820
  1,870
  1,922
  1,977
  2,033
  2,092
  2,152
  2,215
  2,280
  2,348
  2,417
  2,490
  2,565
  2,642
  2,723
  2,806
  2,892
  2,982
  3,074
  3,170
  3,269
  3,372
  3,479
  3,590
  3,704
  3,823
  3,946
  4,074
Operating income, $m
  147
  121
  140
  162
  188
  217
  249
  285
  325
  369
  416
  468
  524
  585
  651
  721
  797
  879
  966
  1,059
  1,159
  1,265
  1,379
  1,499
  1,628
  1,765
  1,911
  2,065
  2,230
  2,404
  2,589
EBITDA, $m
  213
  179
  199
  224
  252
  283
  318
  357
  400
  447
  498
  553
  613
  678
  748
  823
  904
  990
  1,083
  1,182
  1,287
  1,400
  1,520
  1,647
  1,783
  1,928
  2,081
  2,244
  2,417
  2,601
  2,795
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  3
  7
  11
  15
  20
  25
  30
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  77
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  145
  157
  169
  183
  196
  211
  226
  242
  259
Earnings before tax, $m
  147
  121
  137
  155
  177
  201
  229
  260
  295
  333
  375
  420
  470
  523
  582
  644
  712
  785
  863
  946
  1,036
  1,131
  1,234
  1,343
  1,459
  1,583
  1,714
  1,854
  2,003
  2,162
  2,330
Tax expense, $m
  45
  33
  37
  42
  48
  54
  62
  70
  80
  90
  101
  113
  127
  141
  157
  174
  192
  212
  233
  256
  280
  305
  333
  362
  394
  427
  463
  501
  541
  584
  629
Net income, $m
  102
  89
  100
  113
  129
  147
  167
  190
  215
  243
  273
  307
  343
  382
  425
  470
  520
  573
  630
  691
  756
  826
  901
  980
  1,065
  1,155
  1,251
  1,354
  1,462
  1,578
  1,701

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  243
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  891
  670
  694
  719
  747
  777
  808
  842
  877
  915
  955
  998
  1,042
  1,090
  1,140
  1,193
  1,248
  1,307
  1,369
  1,434
  1,503
  1,575
  1,651
  1,731
  1,815
  1,904
  1,997
  2,094
  2,197
  2,305
  2,419
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  648
  670
  694
  719
  747
  777
  808
  842
  877
  915
  955
  998
  1,042
  1,090
  1,140
  1,193
  1,248
  1,307
  1,369
  1,434
  1,503
  1,575
  1,651
  1,731
  1,815
  1,904
  1,997
  2,094
  2,197
  2,305
  2,419
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.755
  2.755
  2.754
  2.757
  2.755
  2.753
  2.755
  2.754
  2.756
  2.755
  2.755
  2.754
  2.756
  2.755
  2.754
  2.754
  2.756
  2.755
  2.755
  2.755
  2.754
  2.755
  2.755
  2.755
  2.755
  2.754
  2.754
  2.755
  2.755
  2.755
  2.754
Average production assets, $m
  277
  286
  296
  307
  319
  332
  345
  359
  375
  391
  408
  426
  445
  465
  487
  509
  533
  558
  585
  612
  642
  673
  705
  739
  775
  813
  853
  894
  938
  984
  1,033
Working capital, $m
  282
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  200
Total debt, $m
  15
  13
  27
  42
  58
  75
  94
  113
  134
  156
  180
  205
  231
  259
  288
  319
  352
  386
  422
  460
  501
  543
  588
  634
  684
  735
  790
  847
  907
  971
  1,037
Total liabilities, $m
  395
  393
  407
  422
  438
  455
  474
  493
  514
  536
  560
  585
  611
  639
  668
  699
  732
  766
  802
  840
  881
  923
  968
  1,014
  1,064
  1,115
  1,170
  1,227
  1,287
  1,351
  1,417
Total equity, $m
  496
  277
  287
  298
  309
  322
  335
  348
  363
  379
  395
  413
  432
  451
  472
  494
  517
  541
  567
  594
  622
  652
  684
  717
  751
  788
  827
  867
  910
  954
  1,001
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  891
  670
  694
  720
  747
  777
  809
  841
  877
  915
  955
  998
  1,043
  1,090
  1,140
  1,193
  1,249
  1,307
  1,369
  1,434
  1,503
  1,575
  1,652
  1,731
  1,815
  1,903
  1,997
  2,094
  2,197
  2,305
  2,418
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.030
  0.050
  0.090
  0.140
  0.190
  0.230
  0.280
  0.320
  0.370
  0.410
  0.450
  0.500
  0.530
  0.570
  0.610
  0.650
  0.680
  0.710
  0.750
  0.780
  0.800
  0.830
  0.860
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.960
  0.980
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  102
  89
  100
  113
  129
  147
  167
  190
  215
  243
  273
  307
  343
  382
  425
  470
  520
  573
  630
  691
  756
  826
  901
  980
  1,065
  1,155
  1,251
  1,354
  1,462
  1,578
  1,701
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  66
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
Funds from operations, $m
  220
  146
  159
  175
  193
  213
  236
  262
  290
  321
  355
  392
  432
  475
  522
  572
  626
  684
  747
  813
  884
  960
  1,042
  1,128
  1,220
  1,318
  1,422
  1,533
  1,650
  1,775
  1,907
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  199
  144
  157
  173
  191
  211
  234
  259
  287
  318
  352
  388
  428
  471
  518
  568
  622
  680
  742
  808
  879
  954
  1,035
  1,121
  1,213
  1,310
  1,414
  1,524
  1,642
  1,766
  1,898
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -44
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
Free cash flow, $m
  155
  79
  90
  102
  117
  134
  154
  176
  200
  227
  256
  289
  324
  362
  403
  448
  496
  548
  604
  663
  727
  795
  868
  946
  1,029
  1,118
  1,212
  1,312
  1,419
  1,532
  1,652
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -157
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -140
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  92
  104
  118
  133
  152
  172
  195
  221
  249
  280
  314
  350
  390
  433
  479
  529
  582
  640
  701
  767
  838
  913
  993
  1,078
  1,170
  1,266
  1,369
  1,479
  1,595
  1,719
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  32
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  228
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  311
  94
  107
  122
  140
  159
  182
  206
  233
  263
  296
  332
  370
  412
  457
  506
  558
  614
  674
  739
  808
  881
  960
  1,044
  1,133
  1,228
  1,329
  1,437
  1,551
  1,672
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  298
  86
  93
  101
  108
  116
  123
  129
  134
  138
  141
  141
  141
  138
  134
  129
  121
  113
  104
  94
  84
  73
  63
  53
  44
  36
  29
  22
  17
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Children's Place, Inc. (The Children's Place) is a pure-play children's specialty apparel retailer in North America. The Company sells apparel, accessories, footwear and other items for children. The Company operates through two segments: The Children's Place U.S. and The Children's Place International. The Children's Place U.S. segment includes the United States and Puerto Rico-based stores and revenue from the United States-based wholesale customers. The Children's Place International segment includes its Canadian-based stores, revenue from the Company's Canada wholesale customer, as well as revenue from international franchisees. The Company designs, contracts to manufacture and licenses to sell merchandise under brand names, such as The Children's Place, Place and Baby Place. The Children's Place has various departments and serves the wardrobe needs of girls and boys (sizes 4 to 14), toddler girls and boys (sizes 12 months to 5T), and baby (sizes 0 to 18 months).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Children's Place (PLCE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.9
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -13.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 16
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 3%
Interest Coverage 75
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Total Capital 19.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Equity 19.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Operating Margin 8.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 14.7%

PLCE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PLCE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1785 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Children's Place. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Children's Place. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PLCE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PLCE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Children's Place, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Children's Place.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PLCE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 18.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1342 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PLCE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 26.7% for Children's Place.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Children's Place. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PLCE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PLCE are equal to 15.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Children's Place operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PLCE is equal to 3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $496 million for Children's Place - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.337 million for Children's Place is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Children's Place at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.

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Financial statements of PLCE
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