Intrinsic value of Preformed Line Products - PLPC

Previous Close

$61.49

  Intrinsic Value

$9.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

Previous close

$61.49

 
Intrinsic value

$9.92

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PLPC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Preformed Line Products (PLPC) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.07
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
Revenue, $m
  337
  379
  424
  471
  520
  571
  625
  681
  740
  801
  864
  930
  998
  1,069
  1,143
  1,220
  1,300
  1,383
  1,470
  1,560
  1,653
  1,751
  1,853
  1,959
  2,070
  2,186
  2,307
  2,434
  2,566
  2,705
  2,849
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  365
  408
  453
  500
  550
  601
  655
  711
  770
  831
  892
  958
  1,026
  1,097
  1,170
  1,247
  1,327
  1,410
  1,496
  1,586
  1,680
  1,777
  1,879
  1,986
  2,097
  2,213
  2,335
  2,462
  2,594
  2,733
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  315
  365
  408
  453
  500
  550
  601
  655
  711
  770
  831
  892
  958
  1,026
  1,097
  1,170
  1,247
  1,327
  1,410
  1,496
  1,586
  1,680
  1,777
  1,879
  1,986
  2,097
  2,213
  2,335
  2,462
  2,594
  2,733
Operating income, $m
  21
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  67
  71
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
EBITDA, $m
  33
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  205
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
Earnings before tax, $m
  21
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
Tax expense, $m
  6
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Net income, $m
  15
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  341
  349
  390
  433
  478
  526
  575
  627
  681
  737
  795
  856
  919
  984
  1,052
  1,122
  1,196
  1,272
  1,352
  1,435
  1,521
  1,611
  1,705
  1,802
  1,905
  2,011
  2,123
  2,239
  2,361
  2,488
  2,621
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  310
  349
  390
  433
  478
  526
  575
  627
  681
  737
  795
  856
  919
  984
  1,052
  1,122
  1,196
  1,272
  1,352
  1,435
  1,521
  1,611
  1,705
  1,802
  1,905
  2,011
  2,123
  2,239
  2,361
  2,488
  2,621
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.087
  1.086
  1.087
  1.088
  1.088
  1.086
  1.087
  1.086
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.086
  1.086
  1.086
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
  1.087
Average production assets, $m
  109
  122
  137
  152
  168
  185
  202
  220
  239
  259
  279
  300
  322
  345
  369
  394
  420
  447
  475
  504
  534
  566
  599
  633
  669
  706
  745
  786
  829
  874
  920
Working capital, $m
  134
  118
  132
  147
  162
  178
  195
  213
  231
  250
  270
  290
  312
  334
  357
  381
  406
  432
  458
  487
  516
  546
  578
  611
  646
  682
  720
  759
  801
  844
  889
Total debt, $m
  46
  58
  74
  90
  106
  124
  142
  162
  182
  202
  224
  246
  270
  294
  319
  345
  373
  401
  431
  461
  493
  527
  561
  598
  636
  675
  716
  760
  805
  852
  901
Total liabilities, $m
  117
  129
  145
  161
  177
  195
  213
  233
  253
  273
  295
  317
  341
  365
  390
  416
  444
  472
  502
  532
  564
  598
  632
  669
  707
  746
  787
  831
  876
  923
  972
Total equity, $m
  224
  219
  245
  272
  301
  331
  362
  394
  428
  463
  500
  538
  578
  619
  662
  706
  752
  800
  850
  902
  957
  1,013
  1,072
  1,134
  1,198
  1,265
  1,335
  1,408
  1,485
  1,565
  1,649
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  341
  348
  390
  433
  478
  526
  575
  627
  681
  736
  795
  855
  919
  984
  1,052
  1,122
  1,196
  1,272
  1,352
  1,434
  1,521
  1,611
  1,704
  1,803
  1,905
  2,011
  2,122
  2,239
  2,361
  2,488
  2,621
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.205
  0.270
  0.300
  0.330
  0.350
  0.380
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.626
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629
  0.629

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
Funds from operations, $m
  16
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  151
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
Cash from operations, $m
  26
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -28
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  8
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  20
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  19
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.8
  90.3
  86.3
  82.8
  79.7
  77.0
  74.6
  72.4
  70.4
  68.6
  67.1
  65.8
  64.5
  63.3
  62.3
  61.3
  60.4
  59.5
  58.7
  58.0
  57.3
  56.6
  55.9
  55.3
  54.8
  54.2
  53.7
  53.2
  52.7
  52.2

Preformed Line Products Company (PLPC) is a designer and manufacturer of products and systems employed in the construction and maintenance of overhead and underground networks for the energy, telecommunication, cable operators and information industries. The Company's products include Formed Wire and Related Hardware Products, Protective Closures, Plastic Products and Other Products. The Company operates through four segments: PLP-USA (including corporate), The Americas (includes operations in North and South America without PLP-USA), EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) and Asia-Pacific. The Company's PLP-USA segment consists of its United States operations manufacturing its traditional products primarily supporting its domestic energy, telecommunications and solar products. Its other three segments, The Americas, EMEA and Asia-Pacific, support its energy, telecommunications, data communication and solar products in each respective geographical region.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Preformed Line Products (PLPC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 314.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 127.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 16
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 19.6%
Total Debt to Equity 20.5%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Equity 6.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Effective Tax Rate 28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Payout Ratio 26.7%

PLPC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PLPC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $337 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Preformed Line Products. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Preformed Line Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PLPC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PLPC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Preformed Line Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Preformed Line Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PLPC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PLPC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Preformed Line Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Preformed Line Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PLPC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PLPC are equal to 32.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Preformed Line Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PLPC is equal to 31.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $224 million for Preformed Line Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 5.244 million for Preformed Line Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Preformed Line Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Preformed Line Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-15-17 11:39AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Preformed Line posts 3Q profit   [Nov-03-17 08:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ Preformed Line Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-20-17 12:49PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Preformed Line posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 11:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ POWER DISK Mounts Solar Modules Anywhere on the Roof   [Jul-10-17 12:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Preformed Line Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-20-17 09:25AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Preformed Line posts 1Q profit   [May-05-17 08:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Preformed Line Products Goes Platinum   [Apr-26-17 03:41PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Preformed Line posts 4Q profit   [Mar-10-17 08:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Preformed Line Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-20-16 09:07AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Preformed Line Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-14-16 10:20AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Preformed Line Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-17-16 08:49AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Preformed Line Products (PLP) Announces Website Redesign   [Apr-11-16 03:47PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Preformed Line Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-22-16 09:20AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Preformed Line Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-10  10:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Solar firm to lay off more than 50 Albuquerque employees   [Oct-22  09:15AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Preformed Line Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-14  09:11AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Preformed Line Products Co.   [Aug-09  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Preformed Line Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jun-12  09:15AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of PLPC
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