Intrinsic value of Plug Power, Inc. - PLUG

Previous Close

$2.30

  Intrinsic Value

$4.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+82%

Previous close

$2.30

 
Intrinsic value

$4.19

 
Up/down potential

+82%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PLUG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  280
  433
  647
  939
  1,324
  1,821
  2,444
  3,209
  4,129
  5,216
  6,477
  7,918
  9,544
  11,356
  13,352
  15,532
  17,891
  20,427
  23,134
  26,010
  29,050
  32,250
  35,610
  39,126
  42,799
  46,629
  50,617
  54,767
  59,081
  63,566
Variable operating expenses, $m
  158
  243
  363
  526
  741
  1,018
  1,366
  1,794
  2,308
  2,915
  3,618
  4,423
  5,331
  6,343
  7,458
  8,676
  9,993
  11,410
  12,922
  14,528
  16,226
  18,014
  19,891
  21,855
  23,906
  26,045
  28,273
  30,591
  33,001
  35,506
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  152
  156
  159
  163
  166
  170
  174
  177
  181
  185
  189
  193
  198
  202
  207
  211
  216
  220
  225
  230
  235
  240
  246
  251
  257
  262
  268
  274
  280
  286
Total operating expenses, $m
  310
  399
  522
  689
  907
  1,188
  1,540
  1,971
  2,489
  3,100
  3,807
  4,616
  5,529
  6,545
  7,665
  8,887
  10,209
  11,630
  13,147
  14,758
  16,461
  18,254
  20,137
  22,106
  24,163
  26,307
  28,541
  30,865
  33,281
  35,792
Operating income, $m
  -30
  34
  125
  251
  417
  633
  904
  1,238
  1,640
  2,116
  2,670
  3,302
  4,015
  4,811
  5,687
  6,645
  7,682
  8,797
  9,987
  11,251
  12,588
  13,996
  15,473
  17,020
  18,636
  20,321
  22,076
  23,902
  25,800
  27,774
EBITDA, $m
  -11
  63
  168
  312
  503
  750
  1,061
  1,444
  1,905
  2,450
  3,083
  3,807
  4,624
  5,535
  6,539
  7,636
  8,823
  10,100
  11,463
  12,911
  14,441
  16,053
  17,745
  19,516
  21,366
  23,296
  25,305
  27,396
  29,570
  31,829
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  32
  50
  81
  125
  184
  262
  363
  490
  646
  833
  1,054
  1,311
  1,604
  1,935
  2,303
  2,709
  3,153
  3,633
  4,149
  4,700
  5,285
  5,903
  6,554
  7,238
  7,953
  8,700
  9,479
  10,291
  11,135
  12,013
Earnings before tax, $m
  -62
  -16
  44
  126
  233
  370
  541
  748
  994
  1,283
  1,616
  1,991
  2,411
  2,876
  3,384
  3,936
  4,529
  5,164
  5,838
  6,552
  7,303
  8,093
  8,919
  9,782
  10,683
  11,621
  12,596
  13,611
  14,665
  15,761
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  12
  34
  63
  100
  146
  202
  269
  346
  436
  538
  651
  777
  914
  1,063
  1,223
  1,394
  1,576
  1,769
  1,972
  2,185
  2,408
  2,641
  2,884
  3,138
  3,401
  3,675
  3,960
  4,255
Net income, $m
  -62
  -16
  32
  92
  170
  270
  395
  546
  726
  936
  1,179
  1,454
  1,760
  2,099
  2,471
  2,873
  3,306
  3,770
  4,262
  4,783
  5,332
  5,908
  6,511
  7,141
  7,798
  8,483
  9,195
  9,936
  10,706
  11,505

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  536
  829
  1,239
  1,798
  2,537
  3,488
  4,682
  6,148
  7,910
  9,991
  12,407
  15,169
  18,284
  21,754
  25,579
  29,754
  34,274
  39,132
  44,319
  49,827
  55,651
  61,782
  68,218
  74,954
  81,990
  89,327
  96,967
  104,917
  113,183
  121,774
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  536
  829
  1,239
  1,798
  2,537
  3,488
  4,682
  6,148
  7,910
  9,991
  12,407
  15,169
  18,284
  21,754
  25,579
  29,754
  34,274
  39,132
  44,319
  49,827
  55,651
  61,782
  68,218
  74,954
  81,990
  89,327
  96,967
  104,917
  113,183
  121,774
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
Average production assets, $m
  216
  334
  499
  725
  1,022
  1,406
  1,887
  2,477
  3,188
  4,026
  5,000
  6,113
  7,368
  8,766
  10,308
  11,990
  13,812
  15,769
  17,860
  20,080
  22,426
  24,897
  27,491
  30,205
  33,041
  35,997
  39,076
  42,280
  45,611
  49,073
Working capital, $m
  -16
  -24
  -36
  -53
  -74
  -102
  -137
  -180
  -231
  -292
  -363
  -443
  -534
  -636
  -748
  -870
  -1,002
  -1,144
  -1,296
  -1,457
  -1,627
  -1,806
  -1,994
  -2,191
  -2,397
  -2,611
  -2,835
  -3,067
  -3,309
  -3,560
Total debt, $m
  423
  686
  1,055
  1,558
  2,223
  3,079
  4,153
  5,473
  7,059
  8,932
  11,106
  13,592
  16,395
  19,518
  22,961
  26,718
  30,787
  35,158
  39,827
  44,784
  50,025
  55,544
  61,336
  67,398
  73,731
  80,334
  87,210
  94,365
  101,804
  109,536
Total liabilities, $m
  483
  746
  1,115
  1,618
  2,283
  3,139
  4,214
  5,533
  7,119
  8,992
  11,166
  13,652
  16,455
  19,578
  23,021
  26,779
  30,847
  35,219
  39,887
  44,845
  50,086
  55,604
  61,396
  67,458
  73,791
  80,394
  87,271
  94,425
  101,864
  109,597
Total equity, $m
  54
  83
  124
  180
  254
  349
  468
  615
  791
  999
  1,241
  1,517
  1,828
  2,175
  2,558
  2,975
  3,427
  3,913
  4,432
  4,983
  5,565
  6,178
  6,822
  7,495
  8,199
  8,933
  9,697
  10,492
  11,318
  12,177
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  537
  829
  1,239
  1,798
  2,537
  3,488
  4,682
  6,148
  7,910
  9,991
  12,407
  15,169
  18,283
  21,753
  25,579
  29,754
  34,274
  39,132
  44,319
  49,828
  55,651
  61,782
  68,218
  74,953
  81,990
  89,327
  96,968
  104,917
  113,182
  121,774
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.880
  8.270
  8.510
  8.670
  8.760
  8.830
  8.870
  8.900
  8.920
  8.940
  8.950
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.980
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  8.990
  9.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -62
  -16
  32
  92
  170
  270
  395
  546
  726
  936
  1,179
  1,454
  1,760
  2,099
  2,471
  2,873
  3,306
  3,770
  4,262
  4,783
  5,332
  5,908
  6,511
  7,141
  7,798
  8,483
  9,195
  9,936
  10,706
  11,505
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  29
  43
  61
  86
  117
  157
  206
  265
  334
  413
  505
  609
  725
  852
  991
  1,141
  1,303
  1,476
  1,659
  1,853
  2,058
  2,272
  2,496
  2,731
  2,975
  3,229
  3,494
  3,769
  4,056
Funds from operations, $m
  -43
  13
  75
  153
  256
  388
  552
  752
  991
  1,270
  1,593
  1,959
  2,369
  2,824
  3,322
  3,864
  4,448
  5,073
  5,738
  6,442
  7,185
  7,965
  8,783
  9,638
  10,529
  11,458
  12,425
  13,430
  14,475
  15,561
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -52
  -61
  -71
  -81
  -91
  -101
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -142
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -251
Cash from operations, $m
  -37
  22
  87
  170
  278
  416
  587
  795
  1,042
  1,331
  1,663
  2,040
  2,460
  2,925
  3,434
  3,986
  4,580
  5,215
  5,890
  6,603
  7,355
  8,145
  8,971
  9,834
  10,735
  11,672
  12,648
  13,662
  14,717
  15,812
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -18
  -28
  -41
  -60
  -84
  -116
  -156
  -205
  -263
  -333
  -413
  -505
  -609
  -725
  -852
  -991
  -1,141
  -1,303
  -1,476
  -1,659
  -1,853
  -2,058
  -2,272
  -2,496
  -2,731
  -2,975
  -3,229
  -3,494
  -3,769
New CAPEX, $m
  -81
  -118
  -165
  -225
  -298
  -383
  -481
  -591
  -710
  -839
  -973
  -1,113
  -1,255
  -1,398
  -1,541
  -1,683
  -1,822
  -1,957
  -2,090
  -2,220
  -2,347
  -2,471
  -2,593
  -2,715
  -2,835
  -2,957
  -3,079
  -3,204
  -3,331
  -3,462
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -92
  -136
  -193
  -266
  -358
  -467
  -597
  -747
  -915
  -1,102
  -1,306
  -1,526
  -1,760
  -2,007
  -2,266
  -2,535
  -2,813
  -3,098
  -3,393
  -3,696
  -4,006
  -4,324
  -4,651
  -4,987
  -5,331
  -5,688
  -6,054
  -6,433
  -6,825
  -7,231
Free cash flow, $m
  -129
  -114
  -106
  -97
  -80
  -52
  -10
  48
  127
  229
  357
  513
  700
  918
  1,168
  1,452
  1,767
  2,116
  2,496
  2,907
  3,349
  3,820
  4,320
  4,848
  5,403
  5,985
  6,594
  7,229
  7,891
  8,580
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  150
  263
  370
  503
  665
  856
  1,075
  1,319
  1,587
  1,873
  2,174
  2,486
  2,803
  3,123
  3,442
  3,758
  4,068
  4,372
  4,668
  4,958
  5,241
  5,518
  5,792
  6,063
  6,332
  6,603
  6,877
  7,155
  7,439
  7,732
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  113
  45
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  263
  308
  379
  503
  665
  856
  1,075
  1,319
  1,587
  1,873
  2,174
  2,486
  2,803
  3,123
  3,442
  3,758
  4,068
  4,372
  4,668
  4,958
  5,241
  5,518
  5,792
  6,063
  6,332
  6,603
  6,877
  7,155
  7,439
  7,732
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  134
  194
  272
  406
  585
  804
  1,064
  1,367
  1,714
  2,102
  2,531
  2,999
  3,503
  4,041
  4,611
  5,209
  5,836
  6,488
  7,164
  7,865
  8,590
  9,339
  10,112
  10,910
  11,736
  12,588
  13,471
  14,384
  15,331
  16,313
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -113
  -45
  -41
  -56
  -74
  -95
  -119
  -147
  -176
  -208
  -242
  -276
  -311
  -347
  -382
  -418
  -452
  -486
  -519
  -551
  -582
  -613
  -644
  -674
  -704
  -734
  -764
  -795
  -827
  -859
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  21
  149
  231
  350
  511
  709
  945
  1,221
  1,537
  1,894
  2,290
  2,723
  3,192
  3,694
  4,228
  4,792
  5,384
  6,002
  6,646
  7,314
  8,008
  8,725
  9,468
  10,237
  11,032
  11,855
  12,707
  13,589
  14,504
  15,453
Discount rate, %
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  19
  121
  166
  221
  280
  333
  376
  405
  420
  419
  403
  375
  338
  295
  249
  203
  161
  124
  92
  66
  46
  31
  20
  12
  8
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  19.4
  17.9
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7
  17.7

Plug Power Inc. is a provider of alternative energy technology focused on the design, development, commercialization and manufacture of hydrogen fuel cell systems used for the industrial off-road market and the stationary power market. The Company's product line includes GenKey, GenDrive, GenFuel, GenCare and ReliOn. GenKey offers solutions to customers transitioning their material handling vehicles to fuel cell power. GenDrive is a hydrogen fueled proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell system. It provides power to material handling vehicles. GenFuel is a hydrogen fueling delivery system. It is designed to allow customers to refuel its GenDrive units for productivity. GenCare is an ongoing maintenance program for both the GenDrive fuel cells and GenFuel products. ReliOn is a stationary fuel cell solution. It provides scalable, modular PEM fuel cell power to support the backup and grid-support power requirements of the telecommunications, transportation and utility sectors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Plug Power, Inc. (PLUG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.7
Price to Sales 5.1
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -14.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1350%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 52.6%
Total Debt to Equity 71.6%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -21.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -40.7%
Return On Total Capital -37.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.9%
Return On Equity -51.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -71.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 4.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
EBITDA Margin -51.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -78.2%
Operating Margin -59.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -58.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -67.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -87%
Net Profit Margin -66.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -86%
Effective Tax Rate 1.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

PLUG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PLUG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $175 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Plug Power, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Plug Power, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PLUG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.5%, whose default value for PLUG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Plug Power, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Plug Power, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PLUG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 56.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $149 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PLUG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.8% for Plug Power, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Plug Power, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PLUG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PLUG are equal to 77.2%.

Life of production assets of 12.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Plug Power, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PLUG is equal to -5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2.713 million for Plug Power, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 219.159 million for Plug Power, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Plug Power, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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