Intrinsic value of Plexus - PLXS

Previous Close

$59.05

  Intrinsic Value

$32.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-45%

  Value-price divergence*

-29%

Previous close

$59.05

 
Intrinsic value

$32.37

 
Up/down potential

-45%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-29%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PLXS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.69
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,556
  2,607
  2,667
  2,736
  2,813
  2,898
  2,991
  3,093
  3,204
  3,322
  3,450
  3,586
  3,732
  3,887
  4,052
  4,226
  4,411
  4,608
  4,815
  5,034
  5,265
  5,509
  5,767
  6,038
  6,324
  6,625
  6,942
  7,275
  7,627
  7,996
  8,384
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,182
  2,232
  2,290
  2,354
  2,426
  2,504
  2,589
  2,681
  2,781
  2,888
  3,002
  3,124
  3,253
  3,391
  3,537
  3,692
  3,857
  4,030
  4,213
  4,407
  4,611
  4,827
  5,054
  5,293
  5,545
  5,810
  6,090
  6,383
  6,693
  7,018
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  334
  343
  351
  360
  369
  378
  388
  397
  407
  417
  428
  438
  449
  461
  472
  484
  496
  508
  521
  534
  548
  561
  575
  590
  604
  619
  635
  651
  667
  684
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,457
  2,516
  2,575
  2,641
  2,714
  2,795
  2,882
  2,977
  3,078
  3,188
  3,305
  3,430
  3,562
  3,702
  3,852
  4,009
  4,176
  4,353
  4,538
  4,734
  4,941
  5,159
  5,388
  5,629
  5,883
  6,149
  6,429
  6,725
  7,034
  7,360
  7,702
Operating income, $m
  99
  91
  92
  95
  99
  104
  110
  117
  125
  134
  145
  157
  170
  184
  200
  217
  235
  255
  276
  299
  324
  350
  379
  409
  441
  475
  512
  551
  592
  636
  683
EBITDA, $m
  146
  139
  141
  145
  150
  157
  164
  173
  184
  195
  208
  222
  238
  255
  274
  294
  316
  339
  365
  392
  420
  451
  484
  519
  557
  597
  639
  684
  732
  783
  836
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
Earnings before tax, $m
  87
  80
  81
  82
  85
  89
  93
  99
  105
  113
  121
  131
  142
  153
  166
  181
  196
  213
  231
  250
  271
  293
  317
  343
  371
  400
  432
  465
  501
  539
  579
Tax expense, $m
  11
  22
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  156
Net income, $m
  76
  59
  59
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  77
  82
  89
  96
  103
  112
  121
  132
  143
  155
  168
  183
  198
  214
  232
  251
  271
  292
  315
  339
  365
  393
  423

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  433
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,766
  1,360
  1,391
  1,427
  1,467
  1,512
  1,560
  1,614
  1,671
  1,733
  1,800
  1,871
  1,947
  2,028
  2,113
  2,205
  2,301
  2,404
  2,512
  2,626
  2,747
  2,874
  3,008
  3,150
  3,299
  3,456
  3,621
  3,795
  3,978
  4,171
  4,374
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,333
  1,360
  1,391
  1,427
  1,467
  1,512
  1,560
  1,614
  1,671
  1,733
  1,800
  1,871
  1,947
  2,028
  2,113
  2,205
  2,301
  2,404
  2,512
  2,626
  2,747
  2,874
  3,008
  3,150
  3,299
  3,456
  3,621
  3,795
  3,978
  4,171
  4,374
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.918
  1.917
  1.917
  1.916
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.918
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
Average production assets, $m
  305
  310
  317
  326
  335
  345
  356
  368
  381
  395
  411
  427
  444
  463
  482
  503
  525
  548
  573
  599
  627
  656
  686
  719
  753
  788
  826
  866
  908
  952
  998
Working capital, $m
  783
  438
  448
  460
  473
  487
  503
  520
  538
  558
  580
  602
  627
  653
  681
  710
  741
  774
  809
  846
  885
  926
  969
  1,014
  1,062
  1,113
  1,166
  1,222
  1,281
  1,343
  1,409
Total debt, $m
  263
  200
  218
  239
  262
  288
  316
  347
  380
  416
  454
  495
  539
  586
  636
  688
  744
  803
  866
  932
  1,002
  1,075
  1,153
  1,235
  1,321
  1,411
  1,507
  1,608
  1,714
  1,825
  1,942
Total liabilities, $m
  849
  786
  804
  825
  848
  874
  902
  933
  966
  1,002
  1,040
  1,081
  1,125
  1,172
  1,222
  1,274
  1,330
  1,389
  1,452
  1,518
  1,588
  1,661
  1,739
  1,821
  1,907
  1,997
  2,093
  2,194
  2,300
  2,411
  2,528
Total equity, $m
  917
  574
  587
  602
  619
  638
  659
  681
  705
  731
  759
  789
  822
  856
  892
  930
  971
  1,014
  1,060
  1,108
  1,159
  1,213
  1,269
  1,329
  1,392
  1,458
  1,528
  1,602
  1,679
  1,760
  1,846
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,766
  1,360
  1,391
  1,427
  1,467
  1,512
  1,561
  1,614
  1,671
  1,733
  1,799
  1,870
  1,947
  2,028
  2,114
  2,204
  2,301
  2,403
  2,512
  2,626
  2,747
  2,874
  3,008
  3,150
  3,299
  3,455
  3,621
  3,796
  3,979
  4,171
  4,374
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.287
  0.350
  0.370
  0.400
  0.420
  0.450
  0.480
  0.510
  0.540
  0.570
  0.600
  0.630
  0.660
  0.680
  0.710
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.363
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  76
  59
  59
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  77
  82
  89
  96
  103
  112
  121
  132
  143
  155
  168
  183
  198
  214
  232
  251
  271
  292
  315
  339
  365
  393
  423
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
Funds from operations, $m
  111
  106
  108
  110
  114
  118
  123
  129
  135
  143
  152
  161
  172
  183
  196
  209
  224
  240
  256
  275
  294
  315
  337
  361
  386
  413
  442
  473
  505
  540
  576
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
Cash from operations, $m
  128
  98
  98
  99
  101
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  130
  138
  147
  157
  168
  180
  193
  207
  222
  238
  255
  274
  294
  316
  338
  363
  389
  417
  446
  477
  511
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -27
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -192
Free cash flow, $m
  101
  45
  43
  42
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  54
  59
  64
  70
  77
  85
  93
  102
  113
  124
  136
  149
  163
  178
  194
  211
  230
  250
  271
  294
  318
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -21
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  76
  61
  61
  62
  65
  67
  71
  75
  80
  86
  93
  100
  108
  117
  127
  138
  149
  162
  175
  190
  205
  222
  240
  259
  280
  302
  325
  350
  377
  405
  435
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -75
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  354
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  404
  48
  47
  48
  49
  50
  53
  56
  60
  65
  70
  76
  83
  91
  99
  108
  118
  129
  141
  154
  168
  184
  200
  217
  236
  256
  277
  300
  324
  350
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  388
  44
  41
  39
  38
  37
  36
  35
  35
  34
  33
  32
  32
  30
  29
  28
  26
  24
  22
  20
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Plexus Corp. (Plexus) and its subsidiaries are engaged in the electronic manufacturing services (EMS) industry. The Company delivers end-to-end solutions for customers in the Americas (AMER), Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and Asia-Pacific (APAC) regions. The Company's segments are AMER, APAC and EMEA. The Company's customer-focused solutions model integrates product conceptualization, design, commercialization, manufacturing, fulfillment and sustaining solutions. The Company delivers solutions to its customers through its product realization value stream. The Company provides a range of aftermarket services, including complex repair, refurbishment and product support for products it manufactures. The Company provides customer service to approximately 140 branded product companies in the healthcare/life sciences, industrial/commercial, networking/communications and defense/security/aerospace market sectors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Plexus (PLXS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -11.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 20.1%
Total Debt to Equity 28.7%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 6.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 8.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
EBITDA Margin 5.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 12.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

PLXS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PLXS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2556 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Plexus. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Plexus. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PLXS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PLXS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Plexus, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Plexus.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PLXS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $326 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PLXS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Plexus.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Plexus. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PLXS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PLXS are equal to 11.9%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Plexus operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PLXS is equal to 16.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $917 million for Plexus - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.885 million for Plexus is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Plexus at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ At $53.52, Is Plexus Corp (PLXS) A Buy?   [Sep-19-17 11:39AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Plexus Completes Fourth Annual B.E.S.T. Competition   [Sep-05-17 09:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Stock Market News for July 20, 2017   [Jul-20-17 09:36AM  Zacks]
▶ Plexus beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Jul-19-17 09:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Plexus Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:PLXS) : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 04:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Plexus Sets Fiscal Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Date   [Jun-15-17 04:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Plexus Corp. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [08:51AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Plexus tops 2Q profit forecasts   [Apr-19-17 04:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Plexus beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Jan-18-17 04:08PM  AP]
▶ Plexus Sets Fiscal First Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Date   [Dec-14-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Plexus Corp. (PLXS): Are Hedge Funds Right About This Stock?   [Dec-07-16 07:38AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Plexus tops 4Q profit forecasts   [Oct-26-16 06:03PM  AP]
Financial statements of PLXS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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