Intrinsic value of PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation - PNRG

Previous Close

$109.60

  Intrinsic Value

$6,525

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$109.60

 
Intrinsic value

$6,525

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PNRG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  142
  220
  329
  477
  674
  926
  1,243
  1,632
  2,100
  2,652
  3,294
  4,027
  4,854
  5,775
  6,790
  7,899
  9,099
  10,388
  11,765
  13,228
  14,774
  16,402
  18,110
  19,898
  21,766
  23,714
  25,742
  27,853
  30,047
  32,328
Variable operating expenses, $m
  22
  35
  52
  75
  106
  145
  195
  256
  330
  416
  517
  632
  762
  907
  1,066
  1,240
  1,429
  1,631
  1,847
  2,077
  2,319
  2,575
  2,843
  3,124
  3,417
  3,723
  4,042
  4,373
  4,717
  5,075
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  73
Total operating expenses, $m
  61
  75
  93
  116
  148
  188
  239
  301
  376
  463
  565
  681
  812
  959
  1,119
  1,294
  1,484
  1,687
  1,904
  2,136
  2,379
  2,636
  2,906
  3,188
  3,482
  3,790
  4,110
  4,443
  4,788
  5,148
Operating income, $m
  81
  146
  237
  361
  525
  737
  1,004
  1,331
  1,724
  2,189
  2,728
  3,345
  4,041
  4,817
  5,672
  6,605
  7,615
  8,701
  9,861
  11,092
  12,394
  13,765
  15,204
  16,710
  18,283
  19,924
  21,632
  23,410
  25,258
  27,179
EBITDA, $m
  139
  235
  369
  554
  797
  1,111
  1,505
  1,989
  2,571
  3,258
  4,057
  4,969
  5,999
  7,146
  8,410
  9,790
  11,285
  12,891
  14,606
  16,427
  18,352
  20,380
  22,507
  24,735
  27,061
  29,487
  32,014
  34,642
  37,376
  40,216
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  8
  15
  25
  38
  56
  80
  109
  144
  187
  238
  297
  364
  440
  525
  618
  720
  830
  949
  1,075
  1,209
  1,351
  1,501
  1,658
  1,822
  1,994
  2,173
  2,359
  2,553
  2,754
Earnings before tax, $m
  78
  138
  222
  336
  487
  681
  924
  1,222
  1,580
  2,001
  2,490
  3,048
  3,677
  4,376
  5,147
  5,987
  6,895
  7,871
  8,912
  10,017
  11,185
  12,414
  13,703
  15,052
  16,461
  17,930
  19,460
  21,051
  22,706
  24,425
Tax expense, $m
  21
  37
  60
  91
  131
  184
  249
  330
  426
  540
  672
  823
  993
  1,182
  1,390
  1,616
  1,862
  2,125
  2,406
  2,705
  3,020
  3,352
  3,700
  4,064
  4,445
  4,841
  5,254
  5,684
  6,131
  6,595
Net income, $m
  57
  101
  162
  245
  356
  497
  674
  892
  1,153
  1,461
  1,818
  2,225
  2,684
  3,195
  3,757
  4,370
  5,034
  5,746
  6,506
  7,313
  8,165
  9,062
  10,003
  10,988
  12,017
  13,089
  14,206
  15,367
  16,575
  17,830

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  394
  609
  911
  1,322
  1,866
  2,565
  3,443
  4,521
  5,817
  7,348
  9,124
  11,155
  13,445
  15,997
  18,810
  21,881
  25,205
  28,777
  32,591
  36,642
  40,925
  45,434
  50,166
  55,120
  60,294
  65,690
  71,308
  77,154
  83,233
  89,551
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  394
  609
  911
  1,322
  1,866
  2,565
  3,443
  4,521
  5,817
  7,348
  9,124
  11,155
  13,445
  15,997
  18,810
  21,881
  25,205
  28,777
  32,591
  36,642
  40,925
  45,434
  50,166
  55,120
  60,294
  65,690
  71,308
  77,154
  83,233
  89,551
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.360
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
Average production assets, $m
  333
  515
  770
  1,117
  1,575
  2,166
  2,907
  3,817
  4,912
  6,204
  7,704
  9,419
  11,353
  13,508
  15,883
  18,476
  21,282
  24,299
  27,519
  30,940
  34,556
  38,363
  42,359
  46,542
  50,911
  55,467
  60,211
  65,148
  70,280
  75,615
Working capital, $m
  -43
  -66
  -98
  -143
  -201
  -277
  -372
  -488
  -628
  -793
  -985
  -1,204
  -1,451
  -1,727
  -2,030
  -2,362
  -2,721
  -3,106
  -3,518
  -3,955
  -4,417
  -4,904
  -5,415
  -5,950
  -6,508
  -7,090
  -7,697
  -8,328
  -8,984
  -9,666
Total debt, $m
  142
  274
  459
  711
  1,045
  1,474
  2,013
  2,675
  3,471
  4,411
  5,502
  6,749
  8,155
  9,722
  11,449
  13,334
  15,375
  17,568
  19,910
  22,398
  25,027
  27,796
  30,701
  33,743
  36,920
  40,233
  43,683
  47,272
  51,004
  54,884
Total liabilities, $m
  242
  374
  560
  812
  1,146
  1,575
  2,114
  2,776
  3,572
  4,511
  5,602
  6,849
  8,256
  9,822
  11,549
  13,435
  15,476
  17,669
  20,011
  22,498
  25,128
  27,896
  30,802
  33,844
  37,021
  40,333
  43,783
  47,373
  51,105
  54,984
Total equity, $m
  152
  235
  352
  510
  720
  990
  1,329
  1,745
  2,245
  2,836
  3,522
  4,306
  5,190
  6,175
  7,261
  8,446
  9,729
  11,108
  12,580
  14,144
  15,797
  17,537
  19,364
  21,276
  23,274
  25,356
  27,525
  29,782
  32,128
  34,567
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  394
  609
  912
  1,322
  1,866
  2,565
  3,443
  4,521
  5,817
  7,347
  9,124
  11,155
  13,446
  15,997
  18,810
  21,881
  25,205
  28,777
  32,591
  36,642
  40,925
  45,433
  50,166
  55,120
  60,295
  65,689
  71,308
  77,155
  83,233
  89,551
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.930
  1.160
  1.300
  1.390
  1.450
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386
  0.386

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  57
  101
  162
  245
  356
  497
  674
  892
  1,153
  1,461
  1,818
  2,225
  2,684
  3,195
  3,757
  4,370
  5,034
  5,746
  6,506
  7,313
  8,165
  9,062
  10,003
  10,988
  12,017
  13,089
  14,206
  15,367
  16,575
  17,830
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  57
  89
  133
  193
  272
  373
  501
  658
  847
  1,070
  1,328
  1,624
  1,957
  2,329
  2,738
  3,185
  3,669
  4,189
  4,745
  5,334
  5,958
  6,614
  7,303
  8,025
  8,778
  9,563
  10,381
  11,232
  12,117
  13,037
Funds from operations, $m
  115
  190
  295
  438
  627
  870
  1,176
  1,550
  2,000
  2,531
  3,146
  3,849
  4,642
  5,524
  6,496
  7,556
  8,703
  9,935
  11,251
  12,647
  14,123
  15,676
  17,307
  19,013
  20,795
  22,652
  24,587
  26,600
  28,692
  30,867
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  -23
  -33
  -44
  -59
  -75
  -95
  -116
  -140
  -165
  -192
  -219
  -247
  -275
  -304
  -331
  -359
  -386
  -412
  -437
  -462
  -487
  -511
  -535
  -558
  -582
  -606
  -631
  -656
  -682
Cash from operations, $m
  131
  213
  327
  482
  686
  946
  1,270
  1,666
  2,140
  2,696
  3,338
  4,068
  4,889
  5,799
  6,799
  7,887
  9,062
  10,321
  11,662
  13,084
  14,585
  16,163
  17,817
  19,547
  21,353
  23,235
  25,193
  27,231
  29,348
  31,549
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -57
  -89
  -133
  -193
  -272
  -373
  -501
  -658
  -847
  -1,070
  -1,328
  -1,624
  -1,957
  -2,329
  -2,738
  -3,185
  -3,669
  -4,189
  -4,745
  -5,334
  -5,958
  -6,614
  -7,303
  -8,025
  -8,778
  -9,563
  -10,381
  -11,232
  -12,117
New CAPEX, $m
  -125
  -182
  -255
  -347
  -459
  -590
  -741
  -910
  -1,095
  -1,292
  -1,500
  -1,715
  -1,934
  -2,155
  -2,375
  -2,593
  -2,807
  -3,016
  -3,221
  -3,421
  -3,616
  -3,807
  -3,996
  -4,183
  -4,369
  -4,556
  -4,744
  -4,936
  -5,133
  -5,335
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -161
  -239
  -344
  -480
  -652
  -862
  -1,114
  -1,411
  -1,753
  -2,139
  -2,570
  -3,043
  -3,558
  -4,112
  -4,704
  -5,331
  -5,992
  -6,685
  -7,410
  -8,166
  -8,950
  -9,765
  -10,610
  -11,486
  -12,394
  -13,334
  -14,307
  -15,317
  -16,365
  -17,452
Free cash flow, $m
  -30
  -26
  -16
  3
  34
  84
  156
  255
  387
  557
  768
  1,025
  1,331
  1,687
  2,095
  2,556
  3,070
  3,635
  4,252
  4,919
  5,635
  6,398
  7,207
  8,061
  8,960
  9,901
  10,886
  11,913
  12,984
  14,097
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  91
  132
  185
  252
  334
  429
  539
  662
  796
  940
  1,091
  1,247
  1,406
  1,567
  1,727
  1,885
  2,041
  2,193
  2,342
  2,487
  2,629
  2,769
  2,906
  3,042
  3,177
  3,313
  3,450
  3,589
  3,732
  3,879
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  91
  132
  185
  252
  334
  429
  539
  662
  796
  940
  1,091
  1,247
  1,406
  1,567
  1,727
  1,885
  2,041
  2,193
  2,342
  2,487
  2,629
  2,769
  2,906
  3,042
  3,177
  3,313
  3,450
  3,589
  3,732
  3,879
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  61
  106
  169
  255
  368
  513
  695
  917
  1,183
  1,496
  1,859
  2,272
  2,737
  3,254
  3,822
  4,441
  5,111
  5,829
  6,594
  7,406
  8,264
  9,166
  10,113
  11,103
  12,137
  13,214
  14,336
  15,503
  16,716
  17,977
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -83
  -117
  -159
  -210
  -270
  -339
  -416
  -500
  -591
  -686
  -784
  -884
  -985
  -1,086
  -1,185
  -1,283
  -1,379
  -1,472
  -1,564
  -1,653
  -1,741
  -1,827
  -1,912
  -1,997
  -2,083
  -2,169
  -2,257
  -2,346
  -2,439
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  4
  23
  53
  96
  158
  243
  356
  501
  683
  906
  1,173
  1,488
  1,853
  2,269
  2,736
  3,256
  3,827
  4,450
  5,122
  5,843
  6,611
  7,426
  8,286
  9,191
  10,139
  11,131
  12,167
  13,246
  14,369
  15,538
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  4
  21
  46
  79
  123
  177
  240
  313
  392
  475
  557
  635
  705
  762
  803
  827
  833
  819
  789
  742
  684
  616
  543
  468
  394
  325
  261
  205
  157
  117
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

PrimeEnergy Corporation is an independent oil and natural gas company. The Company is engaged in acquiring, developing and producing oil and natural gas. It owns producing and non-producing properties located in Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and Louisiana. All of the Company's oil and gas properties and interests are located in the United States. Through its subsidiaries, Prime Operating Company, Southwest Oilfield Construction Company, Eastern Oil Well Service Company and EOWS Midland Company, the Company acts as an operator and provides well servicing support operations for the onshore oil and gas wells in which the Company has an interest, as well as for third parties. The Company owns and operates properties in the Gulf of Mexico through its subsidiary, Prime Offshore L.L.C. The Company is also engaged in the acquisition of producing oil and gas properties through joint ventures with industry partners.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation (PNRG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 83.7
Price to Sales 4.4
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -25.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -27.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 111.9%
Total Debt to Equity 116.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Equity 5.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.1%
EBITDA Margin 71.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.5%
Operating Margin 19.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 14%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Net Profit Margin 5.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Payout Ratio 0%

PNRG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PNRG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $89 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PNRG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PNRG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PNRG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 15.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $38 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PNRG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PNRG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PNRG are equal to 233.9%.

Life of production assets of 5.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PNRG is equal to -29.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $95.309 million for PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 2.049 million for PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PrimeEnergy Resources Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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