Intrinsic value of Insulet - PODD

Previous Close

$81.73

  Intrinsic Value

$3.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$81.73

 
Intrinsic value

$3.21

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PODD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.20
  12.38
  11.64
  10.98
  10.38
  9.84
  9.36
  8.92
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.57
  7.32
  7.08
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  525
  590
  659
  731
  807
  886
  969
  1,056
  1,146
  1,239
  1,337
  1,438
  1,543
  1,653
  1,766
  1,884
  2,007
  2,135
  2,268
  2,407
  2,551
  2,701
  2,858
  3,022
  3,193
  3,371
  3,558
  3,752
  3,956
  4,169
Variable operating expenses, $m
  505
  567
  632
  701
  774
  849
  929
  1,011
  1,097
  1,186
  1,275
  1,371
  1,471
  1,576
  1,684
  1,797
  1,914
  2,036
  2,162
  2,295
  2,432
  2,576
  2,725
  2,881
  3,044
  3,214
  3,392
  3,578
  3,772
  3,975
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
Total operating expenses, $m
  531
  593
  659
  728
  802
  877
  958
  1,041
  1,127
  1,217
  1,307
  1,403
  1,504
  1,610
  1,719
  1,832
  1,950
  2,073
  2,200
  2,334
  2,471
  2,616
  2,766
  2,923
  3,087
  3,258
  3,437
  3,624
  3,819
  4,023
Operating income, $m
  -6
  -3
  0
  2
  5
  8
  12
  15
  18
  22
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  85
  92
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
EBITDA, $m
  12
  16
  20
  25
  29
  34
  40
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  76
  84
  91
  98
  106
  115
  123
  132
  142
  152
  162
  173
  184
  196
  208
  221
  234
  248
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  31
  20
  24
  27
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
  150
  158
  167
  177
  187
Earnings before tax, $m
  -36
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -36
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  523
  588
  657
  729
  804
  884
  966
  1,053
  1,142
  1,236
  1,333
  1,434
  1,539
  1,648
  1,761
  1,879
  2,001
  2,129
  2,261
  2,399
  2,543
  2,693
  2,850
  3,013
  3,183
  3,361
  3,547
  3,741
  3,944
  4,157
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  523
  588
  657
  729
  804
  884
  966
  1,053
  1,142
  1,236
  1,333
  1,434
  1,539
  1,648
  1,761
  1,879
  2,001
  2,129
  2,261
  2,399
  2,543
  2,693
  2,850
  3,013
  3,183
  3,361
  3,547
  3,741
  3,944
  4,157
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.004
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.004
  1.002
  1.003
  1.003
  1.004
  1.002
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
  1.003
Average production assets, $m
  111
  124
  139
  154
  170
  187
  204
  223
  242
  262
  282
  303
  326
  349
  373
  398
  424
  450
  479
  508
  538
  570
  603
  638
  674
  711
  751
  792
  835
  880
Working capital, $m
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
Total debt, $m
  379
  437
  499
  564
  632
  703
  778
  855
  936
  1,020
  1,107
  1,198
  1,293
  1,391
  1,493
  1,599
  1,709
  1,824
  1,943
  2,067
  2,197
  2,332
  2,473
  2,619
  2,773
  2,933
  3,100
  3,275
  3,458
  3,649
Total liabilities, $m
  471
  529
  591
  656
  724
  795
  870
  947
  1,028
  1,112
  1,200
  1,290
  1,385
  1,483
  1,585
  1,691
  1,801
  1,916
  2,035
  2,159
  2,289
  2,424
  2,565
  2,712
  2,865
  3,025
  3,192
  3,367
  3,550
  3,741
Total equity, $m
  52
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  97
  105
  114
  124
  133
  143
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  254
  269
  285
  301
  318
  336
  355
  374
  394
  416
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  523
  588
  657
  729
  804
  883
  967
  1,052
  1,142
  1,236
  1,333
  1,433
  1,539
  1,648
  1,761
  1,879
  2,001
  2,129
  2,261
  2,399
  2,543
  2,693
  2,850
  3,013
  3,183
  3,361
  3,547
  3,741
  3,944
  4,157
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.240
  7.440
  7.600
  7.740
  7.860
  7.960
  8.050
  8.130
  8.190
  8.260
  8.310
  8.360
  8.400
  8.440
  8.480
  8.510
  8.540
  8.570
  8.590
  8.620
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.690
  8.710
  8.730
  8.740
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -36
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
Funds from operations, $m
  -19
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  62
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  -20
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -24
  -27
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -95
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
Free cash flow, $m
  -45
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -187
  58
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  284
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  97
  88
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  122
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  146
  151
  158
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  198
  206
  215
  223
  233
  243
  253
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  52
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -284
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  354
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  122
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  106
Discount rate, %
  4.80
  5.04
  5.29
  5.56
  5.83
  6.13
  6.43
  6.75
  7.09
  7.45
  7.82
  8.21
  8.62
  9.05
  9.50
  9.98
  10.48
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.74
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.07
  17.92
  18.82
  19.76
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  117
  23
  24
  24
  24
  23
  23
  22
  21
  20
  18
  17
  16
  14
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  47.3
  44.9
  42.8
  41.0
  39.4
  37.9
  36.5
  35.3
  34.2
  33.2
  32.4
  31.6
  30.8
  30.1
  29.4
  28.8
  28.2
  27.6
  27.1
  26.6
  26.1
  25.6
  25.1
  24.7
  24.3
  23.9
  23.5
  23.1
  22.8

Insulet Corporation is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of the OmniPod Insulin Management System (the OmniPod System), an insulin delivery system for people with insulin-dependent diabetes. The Omnipod System features a self-adhesive disposable tubeless Omnipod device, which is worn on the body for approximately three days at a time and its wireless companion, the handheld Personal Diabetes Manager (PDM). The Omnipod System features two discreet devices that eliminate the need for a bulky pump, tubing and separate blood glucose meter, provides for virtually pain-free automated cannula insertion, communicates wirelessly and integrates a blood glucose meter. The Omnipod System is a discreet two part design, the Omnipod device (Pod) and the PDM that eliminates the need for the external tubing required with conventional pumps. The Pod is a self-adhesive device that the patient fills with insulin and wears directly on the body.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Insulet (PODD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -161.9
Price to Sales 12.8
Price to Book 74.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 293.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -782.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 39%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 528.6%
Total Debt to Equity 528.6%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.8%
Return On Total Capital -9.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.7%
Return On Equity -59.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -78.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.3%
EBITDA Margin -2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.5%
Operating Margin -3.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.1%
Net Profit Margin -7.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

PODD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PODD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $463.768 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Insulet. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Insulet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PODD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.8%, whose default value for PODD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Insulet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Insulet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PODD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $25 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PODD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Insulet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Insulet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PODD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PODD are equal to 21.1%.

Life of production assets of 8.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Insulet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PODD is equal to 2.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $158.516 million for Insulet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57.16 million for Insulet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Insulet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Insulet: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Investing in Diabetes Stocks: A Beginner's Guide   [Sep-27-18 11:33AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Insulet names its female president as next CEO   [Sep-10-18 09:52PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks for Forward-Looking Investors   [Sep-06-18 09:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Insulet to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Aug-28-18 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Insulet: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ Q2 Earnings Outlook For Insulet   [08:42AM  Benzinga]
▶ Top Stocks Set to Disrupt the Diabetes Market   [Jul-06-18 12:59PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Artificial Pancreas Lifts Tandem Diabetes   [Jun-13-18 03:41AM  Investopedia]
▶ 3 Stocks That Have Doubled and Still Have Room to Grow   [May-31-18 12:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Insulet to Present at Upcoming Investor Conference   [May-29-18 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Five Top MedTech Stocks in Diabetes   [May-25-18 12:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Insulet: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-03-18 04:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Edited Transcript of PODD presentation 7-Mar-17 4:35pm GMT   [Apr-10-18 11:01AM  Thomson Reuters StreetEvents]
▶ Analyst: Insulet On Track For Profitability In 2018   [Mar-06-18 11:51AM  Benzinga]
▶ Insulet reports 4Q loss   [Feb-21-18 04:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Insulet Q4 Earnings Preview   [10:43AM  Benzinga]
▶ Here's Why Insulet Corporation Jumped Today   [Jan-08-18 02:48PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : December 19, 2017   [Dec-19-17 01:48PM  Capital Cube]

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