Intrinsic value of Pool - POOL

Previous Close

$148.16

  Intrinsic Value

$61.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$148.16

 
Intrinsic value

$61.21

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of POOL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  2,983
  3,186
  3,397
  3,617
  3,845
  4,082
  4,330
  4,588
  4,857
  5,137
  5,430
  5,736
  6,055
  6,388
  6,737
  7,101
  7,483
  7,882
  8,300
  8,737
  9,195
  9,675
  10,178
  10,705
  11,257
  11,836
  12,443
  13,080
  13,748
  14,448
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,591
  2,766
  2,948
  3,137
  3,333
  3,538
  3,752
  3,974
  4,206
  4,447
  4,679
  4,943
  5,218
  5,505
  5,805
  6,120
  6,448
  6,792
  7,152
  7,529
  7,924
  8,337
  8,771
  9,225
  9,701
  10,200
  10,723
  11,271
  11,847
  12,450
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  83
  85
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  101
  103
  105
  107
  110
  112
  115
  117
  120
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  143
  146
  149
  152
  156
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,674
  2,851
  3,034
  3,225
  3,423
  3,630
  3,846
  4,070
  4,305
  4,548
  4,782
  5,048
  5,325
  5,615
  5,917
  6,235
  6,565
  6,912
  7,274
  7,654
  8,052
  8,468
  8,905
  9,362
  9,841
  10,343
  10,869
  11,420
  11,999
  12,606
Operating income, $m
  309
  336
  363
  391
  421
  452
  484
  518
  553
  589
  648
  688
  730
  773
  819
  867
  917
  970
  1,025
  1,083
  1,143
  1,207
  1,274
  1,344
  1,417
  1,494
  1,575
  1,660
  1,749
  1,842
EBITDA, $m
  348
  375
  404
  434
  465
  497
  531
  566
  602
  641
  681
  723
  766
  812
  860
  910
  963
  1,018
  1,075
  1,136
  1,199
  1,266
  1,335
  1,408
  1,485
  1,566
  1,650
  1,739
  1,832
  1,930
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
Earnings before tax, $m
  281
  304
  328
  353
  379
  406
  434
  463
  494
  526
  580
  615
  652
  690
  730
  772
  816
  862
  910
  961
  1,014
  1,070
  1,129
  1,190
  1,254
  1,322
  1,393
  1,467
  1,546
  1,628
Tax expense, $m
  76
  82
  89
  95
  102
  110
  117
  125
  133
  142
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  274
  289
  305
  321
  339
  357
  376
  396
  417
  439
Net income, $m
  205
  222
  240
  258
  277
  296
  317
  338
  361
  384
  423
  449
  476
  504
  533
  564
  596
  629
  665
  702
  740
  781
  824
  869
  916
  965
  1,017
  1,071
  1,128
  1,188

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,178
  1,258
  1,342
  1,428
  1,518
  1,612
  1,710
  1,812
  1,918
  2,029
  2,145
  2,265
  2,391
  2,523
  2,661
  2,805
  2,955
  3,113
  3,278
  3,451
  3,632
  3,821
  4,020
  4,228
  4,446
  4,675
  4,914
  5,166
  5,430
  5,706
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,178
  1,258
  1,342
  1,428
  1,518
  1,612
  1,710
  1,812
  1,918
  2,029
  2,145
  2,265
  2,391
  2,523
  2,661
  2,805
  2,955
  3,113
  3,278
  3,451
  3,632
  3,821
  4,020
  4,228
  4,446
  4,675
  4,914
  5,166
  5,430
  5,706
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.532
  2.533
  2.531
  2.533
  2.533
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.531
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
  2.532
Average production assets, $m
  206
  220
  234
  250
  265
  282
  299
  317
  335
  354
  375
  396
  418
  441
  465
  490
  516
  544
  573
  603
  634
  668
  702
  739
  777
  817
  859
  903
  949
  997
Working capital, $m
  471
  503
  537
  571
  607
  645
  684
  725
  767
  812
  858
  906
  957
  1,009
  1,064
  1,122
  1,182
  1,245
  1,311
  1,380
  1,453
  1,529
  1,608
  1,691
  1,779
  1,870
  1,966
  2,067
  2,172
  2,283
Total debt, $m
  581
  645
  711
  780
  852
  927
  1,005
  1,086
  1,171
  1,259
  1,351
  1,447
  1,548
  1,653
  1,762
  1,877
  1,997
  2,123
  2,254
  2,392
  2,536
  2,687
  2,845
  3,011
  3,185
  3,367
  3,559
  3,759
  3,969
  4,190
Total liabilities, $m
  939
  1,003
  1,069
  1,138
  1,210
  1,285
  1,363
  1,444
  1,529
  1,617
  1,709
  1,805
  1,906
  2,011
  2,121
  2,235
  2,355
  2,481
  2,613
  2,750
  2,894
  3,045
  3,204
  3,370
  3,543
  3,726
  3,917
  4,117
  4,327
  4,548
Total equity, $m
  239
  255
  272
  290
  308
  327
  347
  368
  389
  412
  435
  460
  485
  512
  540
  569
  600
  632
  665
  700
  737
  776
  816
  858
  903
  949
  998
  1,049
  1,102
  1,158
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,178
  1,258
  1,341
  1,428
  1,518
  1,612
  1,710
  1,812
  1,918
  2,029
  2,144
  2,265
  2,391
  2,523
  2,661
  2,804
  2,955
  3,113
  3,278
  3,450
  3,631
  3,821
  4,020
  4,228
  4,446
  4,675
  4,915
  5,166
  5,429
  5,706
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.430
  2.520
  2.610
  2.690
  2.760
  2.830
  2.890
  2.950
  3.010
  3.060
  3.100
  3.150
  3.190
  3.230
  3.260
  3.300
  3.330
  3.360
  3.390
  3.410
  3.440
  3.460
  3.490
  3.510
  3.530
  3.550
  3.570
  3.580
  3.600
  3.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203
  0.203

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  205
  222
  240
  258
  277
  296
  317
  338
  361
  384
  423
  449
  476
  504
  533
  564
  596
  629
  665
  702
  740
  781
  824
  869
  916
  965
  1,017
  1,071
  1,128
  1,188
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
  48
  50
  51
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
Funds from operations, $m
  244
  262
  280
  300
  320
  341
  363
  386
  410
  435
  456
  484
  512
  542
  574
  607
  641
  677
  715
  755
  796
  840
  885
  933
  984
  1,037
  1,092
  1,150
  1,212
  1,276
Change in working capital, $m
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  105
  111
Cash from operations, $m
  213
  230
  247
  265
  284
  304
  324
  346
  368
  391
  410
  435
  462
  490
  519
  549
  581
  614
  649
  685
  724
  764
  806
  850
  897
  945
  996
  1,050
  1,106
  1,165
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
Free cash flow, $m
  182
  198
  213
  230
  246
  264
  282
  302
  322
  342
  359
  381
  405
  430
  456
  483
  511
  541
  572
  605
  639
  675
  713
  752
  794
  837
  883
  931
  981
  1,034
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  244
  261
  280
  299
  318
  339
  360
  383
  406
  431
  451
  478
  506
  535
  566
  598
  631
  667
  704
  743
  783
  826
  871
  918
  967
  1,019
  1,074
  1,131
  1,191
  1,254
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  228
  245
  263
  281
  300
  320
  341
  362
  385
  408
  427
  453
  480
  508
  538
  569
  601
  635
  670
  708
  747
  788
  831
  876
  923
  973
  1,025
  1,080
  1,137
  1,198
Discount rate, %
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  211
  210
  206
  200
  192
  182
  171
  159
  146
  132
  116
  103
  89
  76
  64
  53
  43
  34
  27
  20
  15
  11
  8
  5
  4
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Pool Corporation is a distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment and related leisure products. The Company is a distributor of irrigation and landscape products in the United States. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated 344 sales centers in North America, Europe, South America and Australia, through its four distribution networks, including SCP Distributors (SCP), Superior Pool Products (Superior), Horizon Distributors (Horizon) and National Pool Tile (NPT). The Company's customers include swimming pool remodelers and builders; specialty retailers that sell swimming pool supplies; swimming pool repair and service businesses; irrigation construction and landscape maintenance contractors, and golf courses and other commercial customers. Its products include pool equipment and components for pool construction and the remodeling of existing pools, and irrigation and landscape products. Its products also include other pool construction and recreational products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pool (POOL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.9
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 29.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 46.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 22
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 213.2%
Total Debt to Equity 213.7%
Interest Coverage 31
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Return On Total Capital 24.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Return On Equity 64.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.6%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.7%
EBITDA Margin 10.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Operating Margin 10%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.6%
Payout Ratio 33.6%

POOL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the POOL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2788.188 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pool. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Pool. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our POOL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for POOL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pool, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pool.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of POOL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $81 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for POOL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Pool.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pool. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the POOL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for POOL are equal to 6.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pool operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for POOL is equal to 15.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $223.146 million for Pool - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.555 million for Pool is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pool at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.0 billion.

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BECN Beacon Roofing 32.49 34.23  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Look beyond Nike to these seven sporty stocks   [Sep-06-18 05:38PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Pool Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-27-18 02:42PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Pool Corp.: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-19-18 07:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Are Pool Corporations (NASDAQ:POOL) Interest Costs Too High?   [Jun-22-18 01:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Clocks may go a little cuckoo with power grid change   [May-17-18 03:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ 7 Consumer Stocks to Sell Now   [May-15-18 02:04PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Pool Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Pool Corp.: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Amazing Earnings Charts This Week   [Apr-17-18 09:02PM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Leisure Stocks That Can Lift Your Spirits This Spring   [Mar-22-18 11:20AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Pool Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Mar-01-18 05:04PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Pool Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-15-18 09:20AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Pool Corp. tops 4Q revenue forecasts   [09:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ Large caps are way overvalued: Lamar Villere   [Dec-27-17 03:50PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pool Corp. : December 13, 2017   [Dec-13-17 01:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Pool Scores Relative Strength Rating Upgrade; Hits Key Threshold   [Dec-05-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pool Corp. : November 13, 2017   [Nov-13-17 01:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pool Corp. : November 3, 2017   [Nov-03-17 12:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Pool Corporation Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Oct-31-17 03:58PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Pool Corp. tops Street 3Q forecasts   [07:23AM  Associated Press]

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