Intrinsic value of Progress Software - PRGS

Previous Close

$32.14

  Intrinsic Value

$3.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$32.14

 
Intrinsic value

$3.05

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRGS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  410
  423
  438
  454
  471
  489
  509
  529
  552
  575
  600
  627
  655
  684
  715
  748
  783
  820
  858
  899
  942
  987
  1,035
  1,085
  1,137
  1,192
  1,251
  1,312
  1,376
  1,444
Variable operating expenses, $m
  439
  452
  466
  481
  498
  515
  534
  555
  576
  599
  582
  608
  635
  663
  694
  726
  759
  795
  833
  872
  914
  957
  1,003
  1,052
  1,103
  1,157
  1,213
  1,272
  1,335
  1,400
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  439
  452
  466
  481
  498
  515
  534
  555
  576
  599
  582
  608
  635
  663
  694
  726
  759
  795
  833
  872
  914
  957
  1,003
  1,052
  1,103
  1,157
  1,213
  1,272
  1,335
  1,400
Operating income, $m
  -29
  -28
  -28
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -24
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
EBITDA, $m
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
Earnings before tax, $m
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -37
  -37
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -37
  -37
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  740
  764
  791
  819
  850
  883
  918
  956
  996
  1,038
  1,083
  1,131
  1,181
  1,235
  1,291
  1,351
  1,413
  1,480
  1,549
  1,623
  1,700
  1,782
  1,868
  1,958
  2,053
  2,152
  2,257
  2,368
  2,484
  2,606
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  740
  764
  791
  819
  850
  883
  918
  956
  996
  1,038
  1,083
  1,131
  1,181
  1,235
  1,291
  1,351
  1,413
  1,480
  1,549
  1,623
  1,700
  1,782
  1,868
  1,958
  2,053
  2,152
  2,257
  2,368
  2,484
  2,606
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.553
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.555
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
  0.554
Average production assets, $m
  246
  254
  262
  272
  282
  293
  305
  317
  330
  345
  359
  375
  392
  410
  428
  448
  469
  491
  514
  539
  564
  591
  620
  650
  681
  714
  749
  786
  824
  865
Working capital, $m
  -126
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -334
  -350
  -367
  -385
  -404
  -424
  -445
Total debt, $m
  132
  144
  156
  170
  185
  200
  217
  235
  254
  274
  296
  319
  343
  368
  395
  424
  453
  485
  518
  553
  590
  629
  670
  713
  758
  806
  856
  909
  964
  1,022
Total liabilities, $m
  353
  365
  377
  391
  405
  421
  438
  456
  475
  495
  517
  539
  564
  589
  616
  644
  674
  706
  739
  774
  811
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,027
  1,077
  1,129
  1,185
  1,243
Total equity, $m
  387
  400
  414
  428
  445
  462
  480
  500
  521
  543
  567
  591
  618
  646
  675
  706
  739
  774
  810
  849
  889
  932
  977
  1,024
  1,074
  1,126
  1,181
  1,238
  1,299
  1,363
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  740
  765
  791
  819
  850
  883
  918
  956
  996
  1,038
  1,084
  1,130
  1,182
  1,235
  1,291
  1,350
  1,413
  1,480
  1,549
  1,623
  1,700
  1,782
  1,868
  1,958
  2,053
  2,153
  2,258
  2,367
  2,484
  2,606
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -37
  -37
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  49
  49
  50
  50
  50
  51
  51
  52
  52
  52
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
Funds from operations, $m
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from operations, $m
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  46
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  56
  60
  62
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  42
  46
  49
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  59
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.9
  93.9
  91.0
  88.3
  85.6
  83.0
  80.5
  78.2
  75.9
  73.7
  73.0
  72.3
  71.5
  70.7
  69.9
  69.1
  68.3
  67.5
  66.7
  65.9
  65.0
  64.2
  63.4
  62.5
  61.7
  60.9
  60.0
  59.2
  58.4
  57.5

Progress Software Corporation is engaged in application development. The Company operates through three segments: OpenEdge, Data Connectivity and Integration (DCI), and Application Development and Deployment (AppDev). The OpenEdge business segment provides the product enhancements and marketing support to its partner base. It is also focused on providing partners and direct end users with a path to develop and integrate cloud-based applications. Its solutions include Progress OpenEdge and Progress Corticon. The DCI segment is focused on its data assets, including the data integration components of its cloud offerings. Its solutions include Progress DataDirect Connect and Progress DataDirect Cloud. The AppDev business segment is focused on generating customers for its application development assets. Its solutions include Dev Tools, NativeScript, Dev Cloud, Telerik Platform, Test Studio, Sitefinity and Progress Rollbase. Its offerings span Web, mobile and data.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Progress Software (PRGS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -27.9
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 17
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 29.5%
Total Debt to Equity 33.2%
Interest Coverage -11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Return On Total Capital -9.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Equity -12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 84%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.5%
EBITDA Margin 2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Operating Margin -7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin -13.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Effective Tax Rate -60%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

PRGS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRGS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $397.572 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Progress Software. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Progress Software. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRGS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PRGS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Progress Software, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Progress Software.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRGS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 107.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRGS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Progress Software.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Progress Software. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRGS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRGS are equal to 59.9%.

Life of production assets of 57.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Progress Software operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRGS is equal to -30.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $376.084 million for Progress Software - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.462 million for Progress Software is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Progress Software at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Software Stocks to Buy for Big Changes and High Growth   [Oct-19-18 11:30AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Progress Announces Keynote Speakers for DevReach 2018   [Oct-03-18 05:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Company News For Oct 1, 2018   [Oct-01-18 09:51AM  Zacks]
▶ 2 Stocks Fall Friday   [Sep-28-18 05:49PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ After-hours buzz: TSLA, PRGS & more   [Sep-27-18 05:55PM  CNBC]
▶ Progress Software: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Cloud Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Aug-13-18 05:17PM  Zacks]
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▶ Company News For Jun 29, 2018   [09:27AM  Zacks]
▶ Progress Software: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jun-27-18 04:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Progress Software's Earnings Outlook   [08:01AM  Benzinga]
▶ Progress Unveils Speaker Lineup for ProgressNEXT 2018   [Apr-24-18 05:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ IMGlobal.com Announced as Website of the Year   [Apr-19-18 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Cloud Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Apr-17-18 05:52PM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Cloud Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Apr-11-18 02:11PM  Zacks]
▶ Progress shares rise on earnings beat   [Mar-28-18 07:59PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Progress Software posts 1Q profit   [04:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Progress Launches AI-Driven Chatbot, Progress NativeChat   [Mar-13-18 05:02AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Cloud Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Mar-12-18 06:42PM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Momentum Picks to Conquer the Market   [Mar-08-18 04:03PM  Zacks]
▶ CMS Transport Systems Expands Partnership with Progress   [Feb-13-18 04:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Cloud Stocks to Buy Right Now   [Feb-12-18 06:15PM  Zacks]
▶ Weaker dollar adds to optimism over U.S. earnings   [Jan-19-18 03:25PM  Reuters]
▶ Stocks To Watch: Progress Software Sees RS Rating Rise To 93   [Jan-12-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [Jan-11-18 05:06PM  Motley Fool]

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