Intrinsic value of Proto Labs - PRLB

Previous Close

$135.00

  Intrinsic Value

$20.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-85%

Previous close

$135.00

 
Intrinsic value

$20.51

 
Up/down potential

-85%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRLB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.60
  14.54
  13.59
  12.73
  11.95
  11.26
  10.63
  10.07
  9.56
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.68
  5.62
  5.55
  5.50
Revenue, $m
  398
  455
  517
  583
  653
  726
  804
  885
  969
  1,057
  1,149
  1,245
  1,345
  1,448
  1,556
  1,667
  1,784
  1,904
  2,030
  2,160
  2,296
  2,438
  2,585
  2,738
  2,899
  3,066
  3,240
  3,422
  3,612
  3,810
Variable operating expenses, $m
  306
  348
  394
  442
  493
  547
  603
  662
  724
  789
  841
  911
  984
  1,060
  1,139
  1,221
  1,306
  1,394
  1,486
  1,581
  1,681
  1,784
  1,892
  2,004
  2,122
  2,244
  2,371
  2,505
  2,644
  2,789
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
Total operating expenses, $m
  311
  353
  399
  447
  499
  553
  609
  668
  730
  795
  847
  917
  991
  1,067
  1,146
  1,228
  1,313
  1,401
  1,494
  1,589
  1,689
  1,792
  1,900
  2,012
  2,131
  2,253
  2,380
  2,514
  2,653
  2,799
Operating income, $m
  87
  102
  119
  136
  155
  174
  195
  216
  239
  262
  302
  327
  354
  381
  410
  440
  471
  503
  536
  571
  608
  645
  685
  726
  768
  813
  859
  908
  959
  1,012
EBITDA, $m
  129
  149
  170
  192
  215
  240
  266
  293
  322
  352
  383
  415
  448
  483
  520
  557
  596
  637
  679
  723
  769
  817
  867
  918
  972
  1,029
  1,087
  1,149
  1,213
  1,280
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
Earnings before tax, $m
  87
  102
  118
  135
  153
  172
  192
  213
  234
  257
  296
  321
  346
  373
  401
  430
  460
  491
  524
  557
  593
  629
  667
  707
  749
  792
  837
  884
  933
  985
Tax expense, $m
  23
  27
  32
  36
  41
  46
  52
  57
  63
  69
  80
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  133
  141
  151
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  214
  226
  239
  252
  266
Net income, $m
  63
  74
  86
  98
  111
  125
  140
  155
  171
  188
  216
  234
  253
  272
  293
  314
  336
  359
  382
  407
  433
  459
  487
  516
  546
  578
  611
  645
  681
  719

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  540
  619
  703
  792
  887
  987
  1,092
  1,202
  1,317
  1,437
  1,562
  1,692
  1,827
  1,968
  2,114
  2,266
  2,423
  2,587
  2,758
  2,935
  3,120
  3,312
  3,512
  3,721
  3,938
  4,165
  4,402
  4,649
  4,907
  5,177
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  540
  619
  703
  792
  887
  987
  1,092
  1,202
  1,317
  1,437
  1,562
  1,692
  1,827
  1,968
  2,114
  2,266
  2,423
  2,587
  2,758
  2,935
  3,120
  3,312
  3,512
  3,721
  3,938
  4,165
  4,402
  4,649
  4,907
  5,177
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.737
  0.735
  0.735
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
  0.736
Average production assets, $m
  280
  321
  364
  411
  460
  511
  566
  623
  682
  744
  809
  877
  947
  1,020
  1,095
  1,174
  1,256
  1,341
  1,429
  1,521
  1,616
  1,716
  1,820
  1,928
  2,041
  2,158
  2,281
  2,409
  2,543
  2,683
Working capital, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
Total debt, $m
  8
  17
  26
  36
  47
  58
  70
  82
  95
  108
  122
  137
  152
  168
  184
  201
  219
  237
  256
  276
  297
  318
  341
  364
  388
  414
  440
  468
  497
  527
Total liabilities, $m
  61
  69
  79
  89
  99
  111
  122
  135
  147
  161
  175
  189
  205
  220
  237
  254
  271
  290
  309
  329
  349
  371
  393
  417
  441
  466
  493
  521
  550
  580
Total equity, $m
  480
  550
  624
  704
  788
  876
  970
  1,067
  1,169
  1,276
  1,387
  1,502
  1,622
  1,747
  1,877
  2,012
  2,152
  2,298
  2,449
  2,606
  2,770
  2,941
  3,119
  3,304
  3,497
  3,699
  3,909
  4,128
  4,358
  4,597
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  541
  619
  703
  793
  887
  987
  1,092
  1,202
  1,316
  1,437
  1,562
  1,691
  1,827
  1,967
  2,114
  2,266
  2,423
  2,588
  2,758
  2,935
  3,119
  3,312
  3,512
  3,721
  3,938
  4,165
  4,402
  4,649
  4,908
  5,177
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888
  0.888

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  63
  74
  86
  98
  111
  125
  140
  155
  171
  188
  216
  234
  253
  272
  293
  314
  336
  359
  382
  407
  433
  459
  487
  516
  546
  578
  611
  645
  681
  719
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  43
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  81
  88
  95
  102
  110
  117
  126
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
Funds from operations, $m
  106
  121
  137
  154
  172
  191
  211
  232
  254
  277
  297
  322
  348
  374
  402
  431
  461
  493
  525
  559
  594
  631
  669
  709
  751
  794
  839
  886
  936
  987
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  107
  122
  138
  155
  173
  192
  212
  233
  255
  278
  298
  323
  349
  376
  404
  433
  463
  494
  527
  561
  596
  633
  671
  711
  753
  796
  841
  889
  938
  990
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -110
  -117
  -126
  -134
  -143
  -152
  -162
  -172
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -216
  -228
  -241
  -254
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -140
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -61
  -69
  -76
  -82
  -90
  -98
  -105
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -168
  -178
  -189
  -199
  -211
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -262
  -276
  -290
  -306
  -322
  -339
  -356
  -375
  -394
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  53
  62
  72
  83
  95
  107
  120
  133
  148
  159
  175
  191
  208
  226
  244
  264
  284
  304
  326
  348
  372
  396
  421
  447
  474
  503
  532
  563
  596
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  62
  72
  82
  94
  106
  119
  132
  146
  161
  173
  189
  206
  224
  242
  261
  281
  302
  323
  346
  369
  393
  418
  444
  471
  500
  529
  560
  592
  626
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -151
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -229
  -240
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  9
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  90
Cash available for distribution, $m
  35
  -8
  -3
  3
  9
  17
  25
  34
  44
  55
  62
  74
  86
  99
  113
  127
  141
  156
  172
  188
  205
  222
  240
  259
  278
  298
  319
  341
  363
  386
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  34
  -7
  -3
  2
  7
  12
  17
  22
  25
  29
  29
  31
  33
  33
  33
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  29
  26
  24
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
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  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Proto Labs, Inc. is an e-commerce driven digital manufacturer of on-demand three dimensional (3D) printed, computer numerical control (CNC) machined and injection-molded custom parts for prototyping and short-run production. The Company's geographic segments include the United States, Europe and Japan. The Company targets its products to the product developers and engineers who use 3D computer-aided design (3D CAD) software to design products across a range of end markets. Its product lines include Injection Molding, CNC Machining and 3D Printing. Its Injection Molding product line is used for prototype, on-demand and short-run production. Its CNC Machining product line uses commercially available CNC machines to cut plastic or metal blocks into one or more custom parts. Its 3D Printing product line includes stereolithography (SL), selective laser sintering (SLS) and direct metal laser sintering (DMLS) processes. The Company also provides low-volume sheet metal fabrication services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Proto Labs (PRLB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 83.2
Price to Sales 12
Price to Book 9.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 47.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 87.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Total Capital 12.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.4%
EBITDA Margin 27.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Operating Margin 20.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Net Profit Margin 14.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Effective Tax Rate 32.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

PRLB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRLB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $344 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Proto Labs. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Proto Labs. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRLB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PRLB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Proto Labs, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Proto Labs.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRLB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $5 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRLB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Proto Labs.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Proto Labs. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRLB stock is equal to 2.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRLB are equal to 70.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Proto Labs operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRLB is equal to -1.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $461 million for Proto Labs - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27 million for Proto Labs is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Proto Labs at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Proto Labs, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Apr-26-18 06:55AM  ACCESSWIRE]
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▶ Proto Labs Wraps Up 2017 on a Strong Note   [Feb-09-18 05:06PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Proto Labs beats 4Q profit forecasts   [06:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Proto Labs, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:10AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Proto Labs Announces Analyst Day   [Nov-21-17 09:32AM  Business Wire]
▶ Proto Labs Manufactures Another Good Quarter; Stock Pops   [Oct-27-17 09:32AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Proto Labs, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Oct-26-17 06:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Proto Labs tops Street 3Q forecasts   [06:35AM  Associated Press]
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▶ ETFs with exposure to Proto Labs, Inc. : October 2, 2017   [Oct-02-17 11:02AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Sisyphus Kinetic Art Tables Continue to Draw Demand   [Aug-29-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Proto Labs beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-27-17 03:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Proto Labs, Inc. : July 4, 2017   [Jul-04-17 03:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Proto Labs, Inc. : June 22, 2017   [Jun-22-17 04:16PM  Capital Cube]
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