Intrinsic value of Papa John's International - PZZA

Previous Close

$51.59

  Intrinsic Value

$8.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

Previous close

$51.59

 
Intrinsic value

$8.37

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PZZA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  1,856
  1,934
  2,016
  2,104
  2,197
  2,295
  2,399
  2,508
  2,624
  2,746
  2,875
  3,010
  3,153
  3,304
  3,462
  3,629
  3,804
  3,989
  4,183
  4,387
  4,601
  4,827
  5,064
  5,313
  5,575
  5,850
  6,139
  6,443
  6,762
  7,097
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,678
  1,747
  1,822
  1,901
  1,984
  2,072
  2,165
  2,264
  2,368
  2,478
  2,585
  2,707
  2,835
  2,971
  3,113
  3,263
  3,420
  3,586
  3,761
  3,944
  4,137
  4,340
  4,553
  4,777
  5,013
  5,260
  5,520
  5,793
  6,080
  6,381
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,678
  1,747
  1,822
  1,901
  1,984
  2,072
  2,165
  2,264
  2,368
  2,478
  2,585
  2,707
  2,835
  2,971
  3,113
  3,263
  3,420
  3,586
  3,761
  3,944
  4,137
  4,340
  4,553
  4,777
  5,013
  5,260
  5,520
  5,793
  6,080
  6,381
Operating income, $m
  179
  186
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
  402
  422
  443
  464
  487
  511
  536
  562
  590
  619
  650
  682
  716
EBITDA, $m
  220
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  358
  375
  392
  411
  431
  452
  474
  497
  521
  547
  573
  602
  631
  662
  695
  729
  765
  803
  843
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  25
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
Earnings before tax, $m
  153
  170
  177
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  409
  429
  449
  471
  493
  517
  542
  568
  596
  625
Tax expense, $m
  41
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
Net income, $m
  112
  124
  129
  135
  140
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  578
  602
  628
  655
  684
  715
  747
  781
  817
  855
  896
  938
  982
  1,029
  1,079
  1,130
  1,185
  1,243
  1,303
  1,367
  1,433
  1,504
  1,578
  1,655
  1,737
  1,822
  1,913
  2,007
  2,107
  2,211
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  578
  602
  628
  655
  684
  715
  747
  781
  817
  855
  896
  938
  982
  1,029
  1,079
  1,130
  1,185
  1,243
  1,303
  1,367
  1,433
  1,504
  1,578
  1,655
  1,737
  1,822
  1,913
  2,007
  2,107
  2,211
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.211
  3.213
  3.210
  3.212
  3.212
  3.210
  3.212
  3.211
  3.212
  3.212
  3.209
  3.209
  3.211
  3.211
  3.209
  3.212
  3.210
  3.209
  3.210
  3.209
  3.211
  3.209
  3.209
  3.210
  3.210
  3.211
  3.209
  3.210
  3.209
  3.210
Average production assets, $m
  332
  346
  361
  377
  393
  411
  429
  449
  470
  492
  515
  539
  564
  591
  620
  650
  681
  714
  749
  785
  824
  864
  906
  951
  998
  1,047
  1,099
  1,153
  1,210
  1,270
Working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Total debt, $m
  309
  331
  354
  379
  405
  432
  462
  492
  525
  559
  595
  633
  673
  715
  760
  806
  856
  907
  962
  1,019
  1,079
  1,142
  1,209
  1,279
  1,352
  1,429
  1,510
  1,595
  1,685
  1,779
Total liabilities, $m
  520
  542
  565
  590
  616
  643
  673
  703
  736
  770
  806
  844
  884
  926
  971
  1,017
  1,067
  1,118
  1,173
  1,230
  1,290
  1,353
  1,420
  1,490
  1,563
  1,640
  1,721
  1,806
  1,896
  1,990
Total equity, $m
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
  211
  221
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  578
  602
  628
  656
  684
  714
  748
  781
  818
  856
  896
  938
  982
  1,029
  1,079
  1,130
  1,186
  1,242
  1,303
  1,367
  1,433
  1,503
  1,578
  1,656
  1,737
  1,822
  1,912
  2,007
  2,107
  2,211
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.350
  5.500
  5.640
  5.780
  5.920
  6.050
  6.180
  6.300
  6.420
  6.530
  6.640
  6.750
  6.850
  6.950
  7.040
  7.130
  7.220
  7.300
  7.380
  7.460
  7.530
  7.600
  7.660
  7.730
  7.790
  7.840
  7.900
  7.950
  8.000
  8.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  112
  124
  129
  135
  140
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
Funds from operations, $m
  154
  167
  174
  181
  189
  196
  205
  214
  223
  233
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
  399
  419
  439
  460
  482
  506
  530
  556
  583
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  154
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
  400
  419
  439
  460
  483
  506
  531
  556
  584
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -46
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
Free cash flow, $m
  108
  120
  125
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  158
  164
  169
  177
  184
  193
  201
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
  403
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -157
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -89
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  205
  215
  224
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  324
  340
  356
  374
  392
  411
  431
  451
  473
  497
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -180
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -161
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  186
  195
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  276
  290
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
  422
  442
  464
  486
Discount rate, %
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.10
  33.71
  35.40
  37.17
  39.02
  40.97
  43.02
  45.17
  47.43
  49.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -143
  110
  100
  89
  79
  69
  60
  51
  42
  35
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
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Papa John's International, Inc. (Papa John's) operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants and, in certain international markets, dine-in and delivery restaurants under the trademark Papa John's. The Company operates through five segments: domestic Company-owned restaurants, North America commissaries, North America franchising, international operations and all other business units. North America is defined as the United States and Canada. Domestic is defined as the contiguous United States. International franchisees are defined as all franchise operations outside of the United States and Canada. As of December 25, 2016, there were 5,097 Papa John's restaurants in operation, consisting of 744 Company-owned and 4,353 franchised restaurants operating domestically in all 50 states and in 45 countries and territories. It offers pizza along with side items, including breadsticks, cheesesticks, chicken poppers and wings, dessert items and canned or bottled beverages.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Papa John's International (PZZA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.4
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book -473.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 43.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -7700%
Total Debt to Equity -7700%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Return On Total Capital 34.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
Return On Equity 824%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 340.5%
Asset Turnover 3.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
EBITDA Margin 12.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Operating Margin 9.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Net Profit Margin 6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Effective Tax Rate 31.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 27.2%

PZZA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PZZA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1783 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Papa John's International. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Papa John's International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PZZA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.1%, whose default value for PZZA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Papa John's International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Papa John's International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PZZA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PZZA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Papa John's International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Papa John's International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PZZA stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PZZA are equal to 17.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Papa John's International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PZZA is equal to -0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-122 million for Papa John's International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36 million for Papa John's International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Papa John's International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Papa John's Board to Weigh 'Poison Pill'   [Jul-21-18 10:40PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Fallon, Olson Engage cut ties with Papa John's amid backlash   [01:03PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Papa John's comments on Forbes story critical of company culture   [12:02PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Are CEOs Really Worth What Theyre Paid?   [07:00AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ CEO Report Card: Domino's Richard J. Allison Jr.   [Jul-18-18 07:02PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ [$$] Papa Johns Founder Says Resignation Was a Mistake   [Jul-17-18 10:49PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Papa John's Founder Says Resignation Was a Mistake   [07:30PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Papa John's: The Noise and the Stock Price   [05:53PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Papa Johns founder Schnatter hires Harvey Weinsteins attorney   [02:52PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Papa John's founder regrets resigning   [Jul-16-18 08:51PM  Bloomberg]
▶ Papa John's founder: I was blackmailed   [02:43PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Papa John's revokes Schnatter's founder agreement   [07:33AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Another university cuts ties with Papa John's founder Schnatter   [06:43AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Business Highlights   [Jul-13-18 06:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ A Message from Papa Johns CEO Steve Ritchie   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ UPDATE: U of L renames Papa John's Cardinal stadium, business center   [01:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Papa John's to stop using founder's likeness   [12:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Company News For Jul 13, 2018   [09:47AM  Zacks]
▶ Papa John's to stop using founder's likeness   [09:39AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New retail development underway in high-traffic, encircled Triad spot   [07:45AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Bear of the Day: Papa John's   [06:45AM  Zacks]
▶ [$$] Papa Johns Stock Soars After Chairmans Resignation   [Jul-12-18 10:46PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Papa John's Stock Soars After Chairman's Exit   [06:33PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 5 Top Stock Trades for Friday Morning   [04:07PM  InvestorPlace]
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