Intrinsic value of Papa John's International - PZZA

Previous Close

$61.04

  Intrinsic Value

$29.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-52%

Previous close

$61.04

 
Intrinsic value

$29.59

 
Up/down potential

-52%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PZZA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.70
  2.40
  2.66
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  1,714
  1,755
  1,802
  1,854
  1,912
  1,974
  2,043
  2,117
  2,196
  2,282
  2,373
  2,470
  2,573
  2,683
  2,799
  2,923
  3,053
  3,191
  3,337
  3,491
  3,653
  3,824
  4,004
  4,194
  4,394
  4,605
  4,827
  5,060
  5,305
  5,563
  5,834
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  797
  818
  841
  867
  895
  926
  959
  995
  1,033
  1,074
  1,109
  1,155
  1,205
  1,257
  1,312
  1,371
  1,433
  1,498
  1,567
  1,640
  1,717
  1,798
  1,883
  1,973
  2,068
  2,167
  2,272
  2,382
  2,498
  2,620
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  808
  828
  849
  870
  892
  914
  937
  960
  984
  1,009
  1,034
  1,060
  1,086
  1,113
  1,141
  1,170
  1,199
  1,229
  1,260
  1,291
  1,324
  1,357
  1,391
  1,425
  1,461
  1,497
  1,535
  1,573
  1,613
  1,653
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,548
  1,605
  1,646
  1,690
  1,737
  1,787
  1,840
  1,896
  1,955
  2,017
  2,083
  2,143
  2,215
  2,291
  2,370
  2,453
  2,541
  2,632
  2,727
  2,827
  2,931
  3,041
  3,155
  3,274
  3,398
  3,529
  3,664
  3,807
  3,955
  4,111
  4,273
Operating income, $m
  165
  151
  156
  164
  175
  188
  203
  221
  242
  264
  290
  327
  358
  392
  429
  469
  513
  559
  610
  664
  722
  784
  850
  921
  996
  1,076
  1,162
  1,253
  1,350
  1,453
  1,562
EBITDA, $m
  206
  190
  197
  206
  217
  231
  248
  267
  289
  313
  340
  370
  403
  439
  478
  521
  566
  615
  668
  725
  786
  851
  920
  994
  1,073
  1,157
  1,247
  1,342
  1,443
  1,551
  1,665
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  11
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Earnings before tax, $m
  159
  140
  148
  155
  165
  178
  193
  210
  230
  252
  277
  313
  343
  376
  412
  451
  493
  539
  588
  640
  697
  758
  822
  891
  965
  1,044
  1,127
  1,216
  1,311
  1,412
  1,519
Tax expense, $m
  50
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  52
  57
  62
  68
  75
  84
  93
  101
  111
  122
  133
  145
  159
  173
  188
  205
  222
  241
  261
  282
  304
  328
  354
  381
  410
Net income, $m
  103
  102
  108
  113
  121
  130
  141
  153
  168
  184
  202
  228
  250
  274
  301
  329
  360
  393
  429
  468
  509
  553
  600
  651
  704
  762
  823
  888
  957
  1,031
  1,109

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  513
  509
  522
  538
  554
  572
  592
  614
  637
  662
  688
  716
  746
  778
  812
  847
  885
  925
  967
  1,012
  1,059
  1,109
  1,161
  1,216
  1,274
  1,335
  1,399
  1,467
  1,538
  1,613
  1,692
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  497
  509
  522
  538
  554
  572
  592
  614
  637
  662
  688
  716
  746
  778
  812
  847
  885
  925
  967
  1,012
  1,059
  1,109
  1,161
  1,216
  1,274
  1,335
  1,399
  1,467
  1,538
  1,613
  1,692
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.449
  3.448
  3.452
  3.446
  3.451
  3.451
  3.451
  3.448
  3.447
  3.447
  3.449
  3.450
  3.449
  3.449
  3.447
  3.451
  3.450
  3.450
  3.451
  3.450
  3.449
  3.448
  3.449
  3.449
  3.449
  3.449
  3.450
  3.449
  3.449
  3.449
  3.448
Average production assets, $m
  222
  228
  234
  241
  248
  257
  266
  275
  286
  297
  308
  321
  335
  349
  364
  380
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  497
  521
  545
  571
  599
  627
  658
  690
  723
  758
Working capital, $m
  18
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Total debt, $m
  308
  249
  261
  275
  290
  306
  324
  343
  364
  386
  410
  435
  462
  491
  521
  554
  588
  624
  662
  702
  744
  789
  836
  885
  938
  993
  1,050
  1,111
  1,175
  1,243
  1,313
Total liabilities, $m
  516
  458
  470
  484
  499
  515
  533
  552
  573
  595
  619
  644
  671
  700
  730
  763
  797
  833
  871
  911
  953
  998
  1,045
  1,094
  1,147
  1,202
  1,259
  1,320
  1,384
  1,452
  1,522
Total equity, $m
  -4
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  512
  509
  522
  538
  554
  572
  592
  613
  637
  661
  688
  716
  746
  778
  811
  848
  886
  926
  968
  1,012
  1,059
  1,109
  1,161
  1,216
  1,274
  1,336
  1,399
  1,467
  1,538
  1,613
  1,691
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -77.000
  4.890
  5.000
  5.110
  5.230
  5.350
  5.470
  5.590
  5.720
  5.840
  5.960
  6.080
  6.200
  6.310
  6.420
  6.530
  6.640
  6.740
  6.840
  6.930
  7.030
  7.110
  7.200
  7.280
  7.360
  7.430
  7.510
  7.580
  7.640
  7.700
  7.760
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.040
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  103
  102
  108
  113
  121
  130
  141
  153
  168
  184
  202
  228
  250
  274
  301
  329
  360
  393
  429
  468
  509
  553
  600
  651
  704
  762
  823
  888
  957
  1,031
  1,109
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
Funds from operations, $m
  123
  142
  148
  154
  163
  173
  185
  199
  215
  232
  252
  272
  295
  322
  350
  381
  414
  449
  488
  529
  573
  620
  671
  724
  782
  843
  908
  977
  1,050
  1,128
  1,211
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  144
  142
  148
  154
  163
  173
  185
  199
  215
  232
  252
  272
  295
  321
  350
  380
  414
  449
  488
  529
  573
  620
  670
  724
  781
  843
  908
  977
  1,050
  1,128
  1,211
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
New CAPEX, $m
  -56
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -46
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
Free cash flow, $m
  98
  105
  111
  116
  123
  131
  141
  153
  167
  183
  200
  217
  239
  262
  287
  315
  345
  378
  413
  450
  490
  534
  580
  629
  682
  738
  798
  862
  929
  1,001
  1,078
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  45
  -59
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -75
  -59
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  46
  123
  130
  138
  148
  159
  173
  188
  205
  224
  243
  266
  291
  318
  347
  379
  414
  451
  490
  533
  578
  627
  679
  734
  793
  856
  922
  993
  1,069
  1,149
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  33
  -71
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -8
  122
  128
  136
  146
  157
  170
  186
  202
  221
  240
  263
  287
  314
  344
  375
  410
  446
  486
  528
  573
  622
  673
  728
  787
  849
  916
  986
  1,061
  1,141
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -8
  102
  97
  92
  88
  83
  78
  73
  67
  62
  55
  49
  43
  37
  31
  26
  21
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Papa John's International, Inc. (Papa John's) operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants and, in certain international markets, dine-in and delivery restaurants under the trademark Papa John's. The Company operates through five segments: domestic Company-owned restaurants, North America commissaries, North America franchising, international operations and all other business units. North America is defined as the United States and Canada. Domestic is defined as the contiguous United States. International franchisees are defined as all franchise operations outside of the United States and Canada. As of December 25, 2016, there were 5,097 Papa John's restaurants in operation, consisting of 744 Company-owned and 4,353 franchised restaurants operating domestically in all 50 states and in 45 countries and territories. It offers pizza along with side items, including breadsticks, cheesesticks, chicken poppers and wings, dessert items and canned or bottled beverages.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Papa John's International (PZZA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.7
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book -559.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 43.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -7700%
Total Debt to Equity -7700%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Return On Total Capital 34.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
Return On Equity 824%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 340.5%
Asset Turnover 3.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
EBITDA Margin 12.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Operating Margin 9.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Net Profit Margin 6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Effective Tax Rate 31.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 27.2%

PZZA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PZZA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1714 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Papa John's International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Papa John's International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PZZA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for PZZA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Papa John's International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Papa John's International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PZZA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 45.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $788 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PZZA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Papa John's International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Papa John's International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PZZA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PZZA are equal to 13%.

Life of production assets of 7.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Papa John's International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PZZA is equal to 0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-4 million for Papa John's International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.644 million for Papa John's International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Papa John's International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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Financial statements of PZZA
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