Intrinsic value of Qiagen N.V. - QGEN

Previous Close

$39.69

  Intrinsic Value

$16.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-59%

Previous close

$39.69

 
Intrinsic value

$16.18

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QGEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  1,592
  1,686
  1,784
  1,886
  1,993
  2,104
  2,221
  2,342
  2,470
  2,603
  2,742
  2,888
  3,040
  3,200
  3,367
  3,542
  3,726
  3,919
  4,120
  4,332
  4,554
  4,787
  5,031
  5,287
  5,555
  5,837
  6,132
  6,443
  6,768
  7,110
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,403
  1,471
  1,541
  1,615
  1,691
  1,771
  1,855
  1,942
  2,034
  2,130
  1,971
  2,076
  2,186
  2,301
  2,421
  2,547
  2,679
  2,817
  2,962
  3,115
  3,274
  3,441
  3,617
  3,801
  3,994
  4,196
  4,409
  4,632
  4,866
  5,112
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,403
  1,471
  1,541
  1,615
  1,691
  1,771
  1,855
  1,942
  2,034
  2,130
  1,971
  2,076
  2,186
  2,301
  2,421
  2,547
  2,679
  2,817
  2,962
  3,115
  3,274
  3,441
  3,617
  3,801
  3,994
  4,196
  4,409
  4,632
  4,866
  5,112
Operating income, $m
  189
  215
  243
  272
  302
  333
  366
  400
  436
  473
  771
  812
  854
  899
  946
  996
  1,047
  1,101
  1,158
  1,217
  1,280
  1,345
  1,414
  1,486
  1,561
  1,640
  1,723
  1,811
  1,902
  1,998
EBITDA, $m
  575
  609
  644
  681
  719
  760
  802
  846
  891
  939
  990
  1,042
  1,097
  1,155
  1,215
  1,279
  1,345
  1,414
  1,487
  1,564
  1,644
  1,728
  1,816
  1,908
  2,005
  2,107
  2,214
  2,326
  2,443
  2,566
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  174
  185
  196
  208
  221
  234
  248
  262
  277
  293
  309
  326
  345
  364
  383
  404
  426
  449
  473
  498
  525
  553
  582
  612
Earnings before tax, $m
  72
  89
  108
  128
  148
  169
  192
  215
  239
  265
  550
  577
  607
  637
  669
  703
  738
  775
  813
  854
  896
  941
  988
  1,037
  1,088
  1,142
  1,199
  1,258
  1,320
  1,386
Tax expense, $m
  19
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  52
  58
  65
  71
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
  294
  308
  324
  340
  357
  374
Net income, $m
  52
  65
  79
  93
  108
  124
  140
  157
  175
  193
  401
  422
  443
  465
  489
  513
  539
  566
  594
  623
  654
  687
  721
  757
  794
  834
  875
  918
  964
  1,012

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,119
  5,421
  5,736
  6,065
  6,408
  6,766
  7,141
  7,532
  7,941
  8,369
  8,816
  9,285
  9,775
  10,289
  10,827
  11,390
  11,981
  12,600
  13,249
  13,929
  14,643
  15,391
  16,175
  16,999
  17,862
  18,768
  19,719
  20,716
  21,763
  22,861
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,119
  5,421
  5,736
  6,065
  6,408
  6,766
  7,141
  7,532
  7,941
  8,369
  8,816
  9,285
  9,775
  10,289
  10,827
  11,390
  11,981
  12,600
  13,249
  13,929
  14,643
  15,391
  16,175
  16,999
  17,862
  18,768
  19,719
  20,716
  21,763
  22,861
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
  0.311
Average production assets, $m
  1,883
  1,995
  2,110
  2,231
  2,358
  2,489
  2,627
  2,771
  2,922
  3,079
  3,244
  3,416
  3,596
  3,785
  3,983
  4,191
  4,408
  4,636
  4,874
  5,125
  5,387
  5,662
  5,951
  6,254
  6,572
  6,905
  7,255
  7,622
  8,007
  8,411
Working capital, $m
  310
  329
  348
  368
  389
  410
  433
  457
  482
  508
  535
  563
  593
  624
  657
  691
  727
  764
  803
  845
  888
  933
  981
  1,031
  1,083
  1,138
  1,196
  1,256
  1,320
  1,386
Total debt, $m
  2,334
  2,497
  2,667
  2,845
  3,031
  3,225
  3,427
  3,639
  3,860
  4,091
  4,334
  4,587
  4,852
  5,130
  5,421
  5,726
  6,046
  6,381
  6,732
  7,100
  7,486
  7,890
  8,315
  8,760
  9,227
  9,717
  10,232
  10,771
  11,337
  11,932
Total liabilities, $m
  2,770
  2,933
  3,103
  3,281
  3,467
  3,661
  3,863
  4,075
  4,296
  4,527
  4,770
  5,023
  5,288
  5,566
  5,857
  6,162
  6,482
  6,817
  7,168
  7,536
  7,922
  8,326
  8,751
  9,196
  9,663
  10,153
  10,668
  11,207
  11,774
  12,368
Total equity, $m
  2,350
  2,488
  2,633
  2,784
  2,941
  3,106
  3,278
  3,457
  3,645
  3,841
  4,047
  4,262
  4,487
  4,723
  4,969
  5,228
  5,499
  5,783
  6,081
  6,394
  6,721
  7,064
  7,425
  7,802
  8,199
  8,615
  9,051
  9,509
  9,989
  10,493
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,120
  5,421
  5,736
  6,065
  6,408
  6,767
  7,141
  7,532
  7,941
  8,368
  8,817
  9,285
  9,775
  10,289
  10,826
  11,390
  11,981
  12,600
  13,249
  13,930
  14,643
  15,390
  16,176
  16,998
  17,862
  18,768
  19,719
  20,716
  21,763
  22,861
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  65
  79
  93
  108
  124
  140
  157
  175
  193
  401
  422
  443
  465
  489
  513
  539
  566
  594
  623
  654
  687
  721
  757
  794
  834
  875
  918
  964
  1,012
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  386
  393
  401
  409
  418
  427
  436
  446
  456
  466
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
  329
  346
  364
  383
  402
  423
  444
  467
  490
  515
  541
  568
Funds from operations, $m
  438
  458
  480
  502
  526
  550
  576
  602
  630
  660
  620
  652
  686
  721
  758
  796
  837
  879
  923
  970
  1,018
  1,070
  1,123
  1,179
  1,238
  1,300
  1,365
  1,433
  1,505
  1,580
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  67
Cash from operations, $m
  420
  440
  461
  482
  505
  528
  553
  579
  606
  634
  593
  624
  656
  690
  725
  762
  801
  841
  884
  928
  975
  1,024
  1,076
  1,129
  1,186
  1,245
  1,308
  1,373
  1,441
  1,513
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -283
  -298
  -313
  -329
  -346
  -364
  -383
  -402
  -423
  -444
  -467
  -490
  -515
  -541
New CAPEX, $m
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -333
  -350
  -367
  -385
  -404
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -227
  -238
  -251
  -264
  -277
  -291
  -306
  -322
  -337
  -354
  -373
  -391
  -411
  -432
  -454
  -476
  -500
  -526
  -552
  -579
  -608
  -639
  -672
  -705
  -741
  -777
  -817
  -857
  -900
  -945
Free cash flow, $m
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  221
  232
  245
  258
  271
  286
  300
  316
  332
  349
  366
  385
  404
  425
  446
  468
  491
  516
  541
  568
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  159
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  202
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
  386
  405
  425
  445
  467
  490
  514
  540
  566
  594
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  84
  73
  66
  58
  49
  41
  32
  23
  13
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  243
  236
  236
  236
  235
  235
  234
  235
  234
  234
  242
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  320
  335
  351
  368
  386
  405
  425
  445
  467
  490
  514
  540
  566
  594
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  438
  439
  446
  454
  463
  472
  482
  492
  502
  513
  463
  486
  510
  536
  562
  590
  620
  651
  683
  717
  752
  790
  829
  870
  913
  958
  1,006
  1,055
  1,108
  1,162
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -136
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -360
  -378
  -396
  -416
  -436
  -458
  -480
  -504
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  421
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  722
  300
  302
  304
  306
  308
  310
  312
  315
  317
  257
  271
  285
  300
  315
  332
  349
  366
  385
  405
  425
  446
  469
  492
  517
  542
  569
  598
  627
  658
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  693
  275
  263
  250
  237
  223
  209
  195
  181
  166
  122
  116
  108
  101
  93
  84
  76
  67
  59
  51
  44
  37
  31
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.9
  98.0
  97.2
  96.6
  96.1
  95.7
  95.4
  95.2
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1

QIAGEN N.V. (QIAGEN) is a holding company. The Company is engaged in providing Sample to Insight solutions that transform biological samples into molecular insights. Its Sample to Insight solutions integrate sample and assay technologies, bioinformatics and automation systems. Its sample technologies are used for isolating and preparing deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), ribonucleic acid (RNA) and proteins from blood or other liquids, tissue, plants or other materials. Its assay technologies make these biomolecules visible for analysis, such as identifying the genetic information of a pathogen or a gene mutation in a tumor. Its bioinformatics solutions interpret data to provide actionable insights. The Company's automation platforms based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR), next-generation sequencing (NGS) and other technologies tie these together in molecular testing workflows from Sample to Insight.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Qiagen N.V. (QGEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 112.1
Price to Sales 6.7
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 36.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -19.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 532
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 40.9%
Total Debt to Equity 41%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Equity 3.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.7%
EBITDA Margin 21.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Net Profit Margin 6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate -40.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

QGEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QGEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1502 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Qiagen N.V.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Qiagen N.V.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QGEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QGEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Qiagen N.V., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Qiagen N.V..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QGEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QGEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Qiagen N.V..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Qiagen N.V.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QGEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QGEN are equal to 118.3%.

Life of production assets of 14.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Qiagen N.V. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QGEN is equal to 19.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2634.97 million for Qiagen N.V. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 225.402 million for Qiagen N.V. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Qiagen N.V. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.9 billion.

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