Intrinsic value of Quorum Health - QHC

Previous Close

$4.37

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$4.37

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QHC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,113
  2,162
  2,218
  2,280
  2,349
  2,425
  2,508
  2,597
  2,693
  2,797
  2,907
  3,025
  3,151
  3,284
  3,426
  3,576
  3,735
  3,903
  4,081
  4,268
  4,466
  4,675
  4,895
  5,126
  5,370
  5,627
  5,898
  6,182
  6,482
  6,797
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,396
  2,450
  2,511
  2,581
  2,658
  2,742
  2,834
  2,933
  3,040
  3,155
  3,230
  3,361
  3,501
  3,649
  3,807
  3,974
  4,150
  4,337
  4,534
  4,743
  4,962
  5,194
  5,439
  5,696
  5,967
  6,253
  6,553
  6,869
  7,202
  7,552
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,396
  2,450
  2,511
  2,581
  2,658
  2,742
  2,834
  2,933
  3,040
  3,155
  3,230
  3,361
  3,501
  3,649
  3,807
  3,974
  4,150
  4,337
  4,534
  4,743
  4,962
  5,194
  5,439
  5,696
  5,967
  6,253
  6,553
  6,869
  7,202
  7,552
Operating income, $m
  -282
  -288
  -294
  -301
  -308
  -317
  -326
  -336
  -347
  -358
  -323
  -336
  -350
  -365
  -381
  -397
  -415
  -434
  -453
  -474
  -496
  -519
  -544
  -570
  -597
  -625
  -655
  -687
  -720
  -755
EBITDA, $m
  -113
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -287
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -347
  -364
Interest expense (income), $m
  91
  120
  115
  119
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  285
  300
  317
  334
  352
  371
  391
  413
  435
  459
Earnings before tax, $m
  -402
  -403
  -413
  -424
  -437
  -451
  -466
  -482
  -500
  -519
  -492
  -514
  -537
  -562
  -588
  -616
  -645
  -676
  -709
  -744
  -781
  -820
  -860
  -903
  -949
  -997
  -1,047
  -1,100
  -1,155
  -1,214
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -402
  -403
  -413
  -424
  -437
  -451
  -466
  -482
  -500
  -519
  -492
  -514
  -537
  -562
  -588
  -616
  -645
  -676
  -709
  -744
  -781
  -820
  -860
  -903
  -949
  -997
  -1,047
  -1,100
  -1,155
  -1,214

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,865
  1,908
  1,957
  2,012
  2,073
  2,140
  2,213
  2,292
  2,377
  2,468
  2,566
  2,670
  2,781
  2,899
  3,024
  3,156
  3,297
  3,445
  3,602
  3,767
  3,942
  4,126
  4,320
  4,525
  4,740
  4,967
  5,205
  5,457
  5,721
  5,999
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,865
  1,908
  1,957
  2,012
  2,073
  2,140
  2,213
  2,292
  2,377
  2,468
  2,566
  2,670
  2,781
  2,899
  3,024
  3,156
  3,297
  3,445
  3,602
  3,767
  3,942
  4,126
  4,320
  4,525
  4,740
  4,967
  5,205
  5,457
  5,721
  5,999
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
  1.133
Average production assets, $m
  1,217
  1,245
  1,277
  1,313
  1,353
  1,397
  1,444
  1,496
  1,551
  1,611
  1,675
  1,743
  1,815
  1,892
  1,973
  2,060
  2,151
  2,248
  2,350
  2,458
  2,572
  2,693
  2,819
  2,953
  3,093
  3,241
  3,397
  3,561
  3,734
  3,915
Working capital, $m
  -169
  -173
  -177
  -182
  -188
  -194
  -201
  -208
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -274
  -286
  -299
  -312
  -326
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -392
  -410
  -430
  -450
  -472
  -495
  -519
  -544
Total debt, $m
  1,163
  1,201
  1,246
  1,295
  1,350
  1,410
  1,476
  1,547
  1,623
  1,706
  1,793
  1,887
  1,987
  2,093
  2,205
  2,325
  2,451
  2,585
  2,726
  2,875
  3,032
  3,197
  3,372
  3,556
  3,750
  3,954
  4,169
  4,395
  4,633
  4,883
Total liabilities, $m
  1,679
  1,717
  1,762
  1,811
  1,866
  1,926
  1,992
  2,063
  2,139
  2,221
  2,309
  2,403
  2,503
  2,609
  2,721
  2,841
  2,967
  3,100
  3,242
  3,390
  3,548
  3,713
  3,888
  4,072
  4,266
  4,470
  4,685
  4,911
  5,149
  5,399
Total equity, $m
  187
  191
  196
  201
  207
  214
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  290
  302
  316
  330
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  432
  452
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,866
  1,908
  1,958
  2,012
  2,073
  2,140
  2,213
  2,292
  2,377
  2,468
  2,566
  2,670
  2,781
  2,899
  3,023
  3,157
  3,297
  3,444
  3,602
  3,767
  3,942
  4,126
  4,320
  4,524
  4,740
  4,967
  5,206
  5,457
  5,721
  5,999
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.230
  6.300
  6.360
  6.440
  6.510
  6.590
  6.670
  6.750
  6.830
  6.910
  6.990
  7.070
  7.140
  7.220
  7.290
  7.370
  7.430
  7.500
  7.570
  7.630
  7.690
  7.750
  7.810
  7.860
  7.910
  7.960
  8.010
  8.050
  8.100
  8.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -402
  -403
  -413
  -424
  -437
  -451
  -466
  -482
  -500
  -519
  -492
  -514
  -537
  -562
  -588
  -616
  -645
  -676
  -709
  -744
  -781
  -820
  -860
  -903
  -949
  -997
  -1,047
  -1,100
  -1,155
  -1,214
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  169
  172
  175
  179
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  208
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
  373
  391
Funds from operations, $m
  -233
  -231
  -238
  -245
  -254
  -263
  -274
  -285
  -297
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -355
  -372
  -391
  -410
  -430
  -452
  -474
  -498
  -524
  -550
  -579
  -608
  -640
  -672
  -707
  -744
  -782
  -822
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Cash from operations, $m
  -230
  -227
  -233
  -240
  -248
  -257
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -345
  -362
  -379
  -398
  -417
  -438
  -460
  -483
  -508
  -534
  -561
  -590
  -620
  -652
  -685
  -721
  -758
  -797
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -119
  -122
  -125
  -128
  -131
  -135
  -140
  -144
  -150
  -155
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -309
  -324
  -340
  -356
  -373
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -283
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -360
  -377
  -396
  -415
  -436
  -457
  -480
  -504
  -528
  -554
Free cash flow, $m
  -374
  -377
  -390
  -404
  -420
  -436
  -454
  -474
  -495
  -517
  -540
  -565
  -592
  -620
  -650
  -682
  -715
  -750
  -787
  -826
  -868
  -911
  -957
  -1,005
  -1,056
  -1,109
  -1,165
  -1,225
  -1,287
  -1,352
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -51
  39
  44
  50
  55
  60
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  119
  126
  134
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  250
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  490
  407
  418
  430
  443
  457
  473
  490
  508
  528
  502
  524
  548
  573
  600
  629
  659
  691
  725
  761
  798
  838
  880
  924
  970
  1,019
  1,071
  1,125
  1,182
  1,242
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  439
  446
  462
  480
  498
  517
  539
  561
  585
  610
  590
  618
  648
  679
  713
  748
  785
  825
  866
  910
  955
  1,004
  1,055
  1,108
  1,164
  1,223
  1,286
  1,351
  1,420
  1,492
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  65
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -490
  -407
  -418
  -430
  -443
  -457
  -473
  -490
  -508
  -528
  -502
  -524
  -548
  -573
  -600
  -629
  -659
  -691
  -725
  -761
  -798
  -838
  -880
  -924
  -970
  -1,019
  -1,071
  -1,125
  -1,182
  -1,242
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -425
  -338
  -346
  -354
  -365
  -376
  -389
  -403
  -418
  -435
  -453
  -472
  -492
  -514
  -537
  -562
  -589
  -617
  -646
  -677
  -710
  -745
  -782
  -821
  -862
  -905
  -951
  -998
  -1,049
  -1,102
Discount rate, %
  13.70
  14.39
  15.10
  15.86
  16.65
  17.49
  18.36
  19.28
  20.24
  21.25
  22.32
  23.43
  24.60
  25.83
  27.13
  28.48
  29.91
  31.40
  32.97
  34.62
  36.35
  38.17
  40.08
  42.08
  44.18
  46.39
  48.71
  51.15
  53.71
  56.39
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -374
  -258
  -227
  -197
  -169
  -143
  -120
  -98
  -80
  -63
  -49
  -38
  -28
  -21
  -15
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  20.0
  7.2
  2.6
  0.9
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Quorum Health Corporation is an operator and manager of general acute care hospitals and outpatient services in the United States. The Company operates in two segments: Hospital operations, which includes its general acute care hospitals and related healthcare entities that provide inpatient and outpatient healthcare services, and hospital management advisory and consulting services, which includes Quorum Health Resources, LLC (QHR). It operates QHR, which is a hospital management advisory and consulting services that provides services to non-affiliated general acute care hospitals. Its hospitals and its affiliated businesses offer services, such as general acute care, emergency room, general and specialty surgery and rehabilitation services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Quorum Health (QHC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.4
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -21.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 27.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 617.4%
Total Debt to Equity 620.4%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -12.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Return On Total Capital -21.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.9%
Return On Equity -341.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 87.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.4%
EBITDA Margin -8.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Operating Margin -13.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -18.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.9%
Net Profit Margin -16.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.3%
Effective Tax Rate 13.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

QHC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QHC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2072 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Quorum Health. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Quorum Health. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QHC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.7%, whose default value for QHC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Quorum Health, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Quorum Health.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QHC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 113.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QHC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.9% for Quorum Health.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Quorum Health. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QHC stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QHC are equal to 57.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Quorum Health operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QHC is equal to -8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $99 million for Quorum Health - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28 million for Quorum Health is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Quorum Health at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Look inside the retirement paycheck of Quorum's former CEO   [May-25-18 03:12PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ CEO steps down at CHS spinoff company   [May-21-18 10:56AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ US HealthVest Acquires Vista Medical Center West   [Mar-07-18 02:47PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Quorum Health Corp. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 03:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Quorum Health Corp. : June 5, 2017   [Jun-05-17 02:41PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Quorum Health Corp. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 01:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ What's Behind Community Health's Strength in 2017?   [May-19-17 11:49AM  Investopedia]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Quorum Health Corp. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Quorum Health Corp. : May 3, 2017   [May-03-17 04:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is Quorum Health Corp (QHC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-14-16 09:22AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ The Worst Obamacare Stocks of 2016   [Nov-30-16 03:49PM  at Motley Fool]
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