Intrinsic value of Qualys - QLYS

Previous Close

$85.75

  Intrinsic Value

$23.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-73%

Previous close

$85.75

 
Intrinsic value

$23.00

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QLYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.60
  15.44
  14.40
  13.46
  12.61
  11.85
  11.16
  10.55
  9.99
  9.49
  9.04
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.65
  7.39
  7.15
  6.93
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.67
  5.61
  5.55
Revenue, $m
  269
  311
  356
  404
  454
  508
  565
  625
  687
  752
  820
  891
  965
  1,042
  1,121
  1,204
  1,290
  1,380
  1,473
  1,570
  1,670
  1,775
  1,884
  1,998
  2,116
  2,239
  2,368
  2,502
  2,643
  2,789
Variable operating expenses, $m
  211
  243
  278
  315
  355
  397
  441
  487
  536
  587
  638
  693
  751
  810
  872
  937
  1,004
  1,073
  1,146
  1,221
  1,299
  1,381
  1,466
  1,554
  1,646
  1,742
  1,842
  1,947
  2,056
  2,170
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
Total operating expenses, $m
  224
  257
  292
  329
  369
  412
  456
  502
  552
  603
  655
  710
  768
  828
  890
  955
  1,023
  1,092
  1,166
  1,241
  1,320
  1,402
  1,487
  1,576
  1,668
  1,765
  1,865
  1,971
  2,080
  2,195
Operating income, $m
  45
  54
  64
  74
  85
  97
  109
  122
  135
  149
  166
  181
  197
  214
  231
  249
  268
  287
  307
  328
  350
  373
  397
  422
  447
  474
  502
  532
  562
  594
EBITDA, $m
  53
  63
  74
  85
  98
  111
  124
  139
  154
  169
  186
  203
  221
  239
  258
  279
  299
  321
  343
  367
  391
  417
  443
  471
  499
  529
  560
  593
  627
  663
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
Earnings before tax, $m
  45
  52
  60
  68
  77
  86
  96
  107
  117
  129
  142
  154
  167
  180
  194
  209
  224
  239
  255
  272
  290
  308
  327
  347
  367
  389
  411
  435
  459
  485
Tax expense, $m
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
Net income, $m
  33
  38
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  78
  86
  94
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  152
  163
  175
  186
  199
  211
  225
  239
  253
  268
  284
  300
  317
  335
  354

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  483
  557
  637
  723
  814
  911
  1,013
  1,119
  1,231
  1,348
  1,470
  1,597
  1,729
  1,867
  2,010
  2,158
  2,313
  2,473
  2,640
  2,813
  2,993
  3,181
  3,376
  3,580
  3,792
  4,013
  4,244
  4,485
  4,736
  4,999
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  483
  557
  637
  723
  814
  911
  1,013
  1,119
  1,231
  1,348
  1,470
  1,597
  1,729
  1,867
  2,010
  2,158
  2,313
  2,473
  2,640
  2,813
  2,993
  3,181
  3,376
  3,580
  3,792
  4,013
  4,244
  4,485
  4,736
  4,999
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.557
  0.558
  0.559
  0.559
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.559
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
Average production assets, $m
  66
  76
  87
  99
  111
  125
  138
  153
  168
  184
  201
  218
  236
  255
  275
  295
  316
  338
  361
  385
  409
  435
  462
  489
  518
  549
  580
  613
  647
  683
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Total debt, $m
  33
  68
  105
  146
  188
  234
  281
  331
  384
  439
  496
  556
  618
  682
  749
  819
  891
  966
  1,044
  1,126
  1,210
  1,298
  1,390
  1,485
  1,585
  1,689
  1,797
  1,910
  2,028
  2,151
Total liabilities, $m
  226
  261
  299
  339
  382
  427
  475
  525
  577
  632
  690
  749
  811
  876
  943
  1,012
  1,085
  1,160
  1,238
  1,319
  1,404
  1,492
  1,583
  1,679
  1,778
  1,882
  1,990
  2,103
  2,221
  2,344
Total equity, $m
  256
  296
  338
  384
  432
  484
  538
  594
  654
  716
  781
  848
  918
  991
  1,067
  1,146
  1,228
  1,313
  1,402
  1,494
  1,589
  1,689
  1,793
  1,901
  2,014
  2,131
  2,253
  2,381
  2,515
  2,654
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  482
  557
  637
  723
  814
  911
  1,013
  1,119
  1,231
  1,348
  1,471
  1,597
  1,729
  1,867
  2,010
  2,158
  2,313
  2,473
  2,640
  2,813
  2,993
  3,181
  3,376
  3,580
  3,792
  4,013
  4,243
  4,484
  4,736
  4,998
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.130
  0.230
  0.310
  0.380
  0.440
  0.480
  0.520
  0.560
  0.590
  0.610
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  38
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  78
  86
  94
  104
  113
  122
  132
  142
  152
  163
  175
  186
  199
  211
  225
  239
  253
  268
  284
  300
  317
  335
  354
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
Funds from operations, $m
  41
  47
  54
  61
  69
  77
  86
  95
  104
  114
  124
  134
  146
  157
  169
  182
  195
  208
  222
  237
  252
  268
  285
  302
  320
  339
  358
  379
  400
  422
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  41
  47
  54
  61
  69
  77
  86
  95
  104
  114
  124
  135
  146
  158
  170
  182
  195
  209
  223
  238
  253
  269
  285
  303
  321
  339
  359
  379
  401
  423
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -101
Free cash flow, $m
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  74
  81
  89
  97
  106
  115
  125
  134
  145
  155
  166
  178
  190
  202
  215
  229
  243
  257
  272
  288
  305
  322
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  36
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  62
  67
  73
  81
  90
  98
  107
  117
  126
  136
  146
  157
  168
  180
  192
  204
  217
  230
  244
  259
  274
  290
  307
  324
  342
  361
  381
  401
  423
  446
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -139
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  124
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  27
  32
  36
  42
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  161
  172
  184
  195
  208
  220
  234
  248
  262
  277
  293
  309
Cash available for distribution, $m
  150
  27
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  98
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
  156
  167
  179
  190
  203
  216
  229
  244
  258
  273
  289
  306
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  144
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  37
  38
  39
  39
  38
  37
  36
  34
  32
  29
  27
  24
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8

Qualys, Inc. is a provider of cloud-based security and compliance solutions. The Company's solutions enable organizations to identify security risks to their information technology (IT) infrastructures, help protect their IT systems and applications from cyber-attacks. Its suite of security and compliance solutions delivered on its Qualys Cloud Platform enables its customers to identify their IT assets, collect and analyze IT security data, discover and prioritize vulnerabilities, recommend remediation actions and verify the implementation of such actions. Its Qualys Cloud Platform consists of a suite of IT security and compliance solutions. The Qualys Cloud Suite includes solutions, such as Vulnerability Management, Continuous Monitoring, Cloud Agent, AssetView, ThreatPROTECT, Policy Compliance, Payment Card Industry Compliance, Security Assessment Questionnaire, Web Application Scanning and Web Application Firewall. It provides its solutions through a software-as-a-service model.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Qualys (QLYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 161.8
Price to Sales 15.5
Price to Book 11.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 45.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 68.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Total Capital 8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Return On Equity 8.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.6%
EBITDA Margin 23.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Operating Margin 15.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

QLYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QLYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $231 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Qualys. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Qualys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QLYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QLYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Qualys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Qualys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QLYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $13 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QLYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Qualys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Qualys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QLYS stock is equal to 11.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QLYS are equal to 24.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Qualys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QLYS is equal to -0.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $344 million for Qualys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37 million for Qualys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Qualys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Qualys: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jul-31-18 06:20PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Qualys (QLYS) Catches Eye: Stock Jumps 6.4%   [Jun-15-18 08:34AM  Zacks]
▶ Qualys Stock Jumps On Revenue Outlook, Market Expansion   [04:25PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Qualys To Speak At Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-03-18 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Qualys: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 06:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ QUALYS BRINGS WEB APPLICATION SECURITY TO DEVOPS   [Apr-16-18 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ QUALYS ACQUIRES 1MOBILITY   [Apr-02-18 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Bull Of the Day: Qualys (QLYS)   [Feb-16-18 04:40AM  Zacks]
▶ Qualys tops Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-12-18 06:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Qualys Earnings Preview   [12:57PM  Benzinga]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Qualys, Inc. : November 30, 2017   [Nov-30-17 02:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Qualys, Inc. : November 20, 2017   [Nov-20-17 01:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Qualys, Inc. : November 9, 2017   [Nov-09-17 01:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Qualys beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-31-17 04:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ Electronic Arts, Mastercard, Aetna Lead Tuesday Investing Action Plan   [Oct-30-17 04:11PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Palo Alto Pops But Symantec, Qualys Fall On Analyst's Note   [Oct-10-17 04:55PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Qualys Completes Asset Purchase of Nevis Networks   [Aug-30-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
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