Intrinsic value of Qualys - QLYS

Previous Close

$87.95

  Intrinsic Value

$42.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-52%

Previous close

$87.95

 
Intrinsic value

$42.26

 
Up/down potential

-52%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QLYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  23.20
  21.38
  19.74
  18.27
  16.94
  15.75
  14.67
  13.71
  12.83
  12.05
  11.35
  10.71
  10.14
  9.63
  9.16
  8.75
  8.37
  8.04
  7.73
  7.46
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
Revenue, $m
  284
  345
  413
  489
  572
  662
  759
  863
  973
  1,091
  1,215
  1,345
  1,481
  1,624
  1,772
  1,927
  2,089
  2,257
  2,431
  2,612
  2,801
  2,997
  3,200
  3,412
  3,632
  3,861
  4,099
  4,348
  4,606
  4,876
Variable operating expenses, $m
  221
  268
  321
  379
  443
  513
  588
  668
  754
  845
  939
  1,039
  1,145
  1,255
  1,370
  1,490
  1,614
  1,744
  1,879
  2,019
  2,165
  2,316
  2,474
  2,637
  2,807
  2,984
  3,169
  3,361
  3,561
  3,769
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
Total operating expenses, $m
  235
  283
  336
  394
  459
  529
  604
  685
  771
  862
  957
  1,057
  1,164
  1,274
  1,389
  1,510
  1,634
  1,765
  1,900
  2,041
  2,187
  2,339
  2,497
  2,661
  2,831
  3,009
  3,194
  3,387
  3,587
  3,796
Operating income, $m
  49
  62
  78
  94
  113
  133
  155
  178
  203
  229
  258
  287
  318
  350
  383
  418
  454
  492
  531
  571
  614
  658
  703
  751
  800
  852
  906
  961
  1,020
  1,080
EBITDA, $m
  63
  80
  98
  118
  140
  165
  191
  219
  249
  280
  314
  349
  385
  424
  464
  506
  550
  595
  642
  691
  742
  795
  850
  907
  967
  1,029
  1,093
  1,160
  1,231
  1,304
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  5
  8
  12
  15
  20
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  165
  176
  187
  199
Earnings before tax, $m
  49
  60
  72
  86
  101
  117
  135
  154
  174
  195
  219
  242
  267
  293
  320
  348
  377
  407
  439
  472
  506
  541
  578
  616
  656
  698
  741
  786
  833
  882
Tax expense, $m
  13
  16
  20
  23
  27
  32
  36
  42
  47
  53
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  137
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
  200
  212
  225
  238
Net income, $m
  36
  44
  53
  63
  74
  86
  99
  112
  127
  142
  160
  177
  195
  214
  233
  254
  275
  297
  320
  344
  369
  395
  422
  450
  479
  509
  541
  574
  608
  644

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  510
  619
  741
  876
  1,024
  1,186
  1,360
  1,546
  1,745
  1,955
  2,177
  2,410
  2,654
  2,910
  3,176
  3,454
  3,743
  4,044
  4,357
  4,682
  5,019
  5,370
  5,735
  6,114
  6,509
  6,919
  7,346
  7,791
  8,255
  8,739
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  510
  619
  741
  876
  1,024
  1,186
  1,360
  1,546
  1,745
  1,955
  2,177
  2,410
  2,654
  2,910
  3,176
  3,454
  3,743
  4,044
  4,357
  4,682
  5,019
  5,370
  5,735
  6,114
  6,509
  6,919
  7,346
  7,791
  8,255
  8,739
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.558
  0.559
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
Average production assets, $m
  65
  79
  95
  112
  131
  152
  174
  198
  223
  250
  278
  308
  339
  372
  406
  441
  478
  517
  557
  598
  641
  686
  733
  781
  832
  884
  939
  996
  1,055
  1,117
Working capital, $m
  -106
  -128
  -154
  -182
  -213
  -246
  -282
  -321
  -362
  -406
  -452
  -500
  -551
  -604
  -659
  -717
  -777
  -839
  -904
  -972
  -1,042
  -1,115
  -1,190
  -1,269
  -1,351
  -1,436
  -1,525
  -1,617
  -1,714
  -1,814
Total debt, $m
  45
  96
  153
  217
  286
  362
  444
  531
  624
  723
  827
  936
  1,051
  1,171
  1,296
  1,426
  1,562
  1,703
  1,849
  2,002
  2,160
  2,325
  2,496
  2,674
  2,859
  3,051
  3,251
  3,460
  3,678
  3,904
Total liabilities, $m
  239
  290
  347
  411
  480
  556
  638
  725
  818
  917
  1,021
  1,130
  1,245
  1,365
  1,490
  1,620
  1,756
  1,897
  2,043
  2,196
  2,354
  2,519
  2,690
  2,868
  3,053
  3,245
  3,445
  3,654
  3,872
  4,098
Total equity, $m
  271
  328
  393
  465
  544
  630
  722
  821
  926
  1,038
  1,156
  1,280
  1,409
  1,545
  1,687
  1,834
  1,988
  2,147
  2,313
  2,486
  2,665
  2,852
  3,045
  3,247
  3,456
  3,674
  3,901
  4,137
  4,384
  4,640
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  510
  618
  740
  876
  1,024
  1,186
  1,360
  1,546
  1,744
  1,955
  2,177
  2,410
  2,654
  2,910
  3,177
  3,454
  3,744
  4,044
  4,356
  4,682
  5,019
  5,371
  5,735
  6,115
  6,509
  6,919
  7,346
  7,791
  8,256
  8,738
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.170
  0.290
  0.390
  0.470
  0.530
  0.580
  0.610
  0.650
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  36
  44
  53
  63
  74
  86
  99
  112
  127
  142
  160
  177
  195
  214
  233
  254
  275
  297
  320
  344
  369
  395
  422
  450
  479
  509
  541
  574
  608
  644
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  74
  81
  88
  96
  103
  111
  120
  128
  137
  147
  156
  166
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
Funds from operations, $m
  50
  61
  73
  87
  101
  117
  135
  153
  173
  194
  215
  239
  263
  288
  315
  342
  371
  401
  432
  464
  497
  532
  568
  606
  645
  686
  729
  773
  819
  867
Change in working capital, $m
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
Cash from operations, $m
  70
  84
  98
  115
  132
  151
  171
  192
  214
  237
  261
  287
  314
  341
  370
  400
  431
  463
  497
  531
  568
  605
  644
  685
  727
  771
  817
  865
  915
  967
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -177
  -188
  -199
  -211
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -52
  -59
  -65
  -72
  -78
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -108
  -117
  -125
  -134
  -143
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -273
Free cash flow, $m
  47
  57
  67
  78
  91
  104
  118
  133
  149
  166
  183
  202
  221
  241
  262
  283
  306
  329
  353
  379
  405
  432
  460
  490
  520
  552
  586
  621
  657
  695
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  45
  51
  57
  63
  70
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  200
  209
  218
  227
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  15
  14
  12
  9
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  60
  65
  69
  72
  75
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  200
  209
  218
  227
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  107
  122
  136
  151
  165
  180
  200
  221
  242
  265
  287
  311
  335
  361
  387
  413
  441
  470
  500
  531
  563
  597
  631
  668
  706
  745
  786
  829
  874
  921
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -257
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  124
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  180
  64
  72
  79
  87
  94
  107
  122
  137
  153
  169
  187
  206
  225
  245
  266
  288
  310
  334
  358
  384
  410
  438
  466
  496
  527
  559
  593
  628
  665
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  173
  59
  62
  65
  67
  68
  73
  76
  79
  80
  80
  80
  78
  75
  72
  68
  63
  57
  51
  46
  40
  34
  29
  24
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.3
  98.8
  98.4
  98.2
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1

Qualys, Inc. is a provider of cloud-based security and compliance solutions. The Company's solutions enable organizations to identify security risks to their information technology (IT) infrastructures, help protect their IT systems and applications from cyber-attacks. Its suite of security and compliance solutions delivered on its Qualys Cloud Platform enables its customers to identify their IT assets, collect and analyze IT security data, discover and prioritize vulnerabilities, recommend remediation actions and verify the implementation of such actions. Its Qualys Cloud Platform consists of a suite of IT security and compliance solutions. The Qualys Cloud Suite includes solutions, such as Vulnerability Management, Continuous Monitoring, Cloud Agent, AssetView, ThreatPROTECT, Policy Compliance, Payment Card Industry Compliance, Security Assessment Questionnaire, Web Application Scanning and Web Application Firewall. It provides its solutions through a software-as-a-service model.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Qualys (QLYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 165.9
Price to Sales 15.9
Price to Book 12.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 46.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 70
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Total Capital 8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Return On Equity 8.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.6%
EBITDA Margin 23.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Operating Margin 15.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

QLYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QLYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $230.828 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Qualys. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Qualys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QLYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 23.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QLYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Qualys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Qualys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QLYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $14 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QLYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Qualys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Qualys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QLYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QLYS are equal to 22.9%.

Life of production assets of 2.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Qualys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QLYS is equal to -37.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $343.544 million for Qualys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.979 million for Qualys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Qualys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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▶ Qualys: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-01-18 06:04PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Qualys beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-31-17 04:55PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Palo Alto Pops But Symantec, Qualys Fall On Analyst's Note   [Oct-10-17 04:55PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Qualys Completes Asset Purchase of Nevis Networks   [Aug-30-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]

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