Intrinsic value of QuinStreet - QNST

Previous Close

$13.65

  Intrinsic Value

$0.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$13.65

 
Intrinsic value

$0.31

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QNST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  48.90
  44.51
  40.56
  37.00
  33.80
  30.92
  28.33
  26.00
  23.90
  22.01
  20.31
  18.78
  17.40
  16.16
  15.04
  14.04
  13.13
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
Revenue, $m
  446
  645
  907
  1,242
  1,662
  2,176
  2,793
  3,519
  4,359
  5,319
  6,399
  7,600
  8,923
  10,364
  11,924
  13,597
  15,383
  17,279
  19,281
  21,389
  23,600
  25,914
  28,330
  30,848
  33,471
  36,199
  39,036
  41,984
  45,048
  48,232
Variable operating expenses, $m
  472
  679
  952
  1,302
  1,739
  2,275
  2,918
  3,676
  4,552
  5,553
  6,673
  7,926
  9,306
  10,809
  12,435
  14,181
  16,044
  18,020
  20,109
  22,307
  24,613
  27,026
  29,545
  32,172
  34,907
  37,753
  40,711
  43,786
  46,981
  50,302
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  472
  679
  952
  1,302
  1,739
  2,275
  2,918
  3,676
  4,552
  5,553
  6,673
  7,926
  9,306
  10,809
  12,435
  14,181
  16,044
  18,020
  20,109
  22,307
  24,613
  27,026
  29,545
  32,172
  34,907
  37,753
  40,711
  43,786
  46,981
  50,302
Operating income, $m
  -25
  -34
  -45
  -59
  -77
  -99
  -126
  -157
  -193
  -234
  -275
  -326
  -383
  -445
  -512
  -583
  -660
  -741
  -827
  -918
  -1,013
  -1,112
  -1,216
  -1,324
  -1,436
  -1,553
  -1,675
  -1,802
  -1,933
  -2,070
EBITDA, $m
  -10
  -14
  -20
  -27
  -36
  -48
  -61
  -77
  -96
  -117
  -140
  -167
  -196
  -227
  -261
  -298
  -337
  -379
  -423
  -469
  -517
  -568
  -621
  -676
  -734
  -794
  -856
  -921
  -988
  -1,058
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  4
  6
  10
  14
  19
  25
  33
  41
  51
  62
  74
  87
  102
  118
  135
  153
  172
  192
  214
  236
  260
  284
  310
  336
  364
  393
  422
  454
Earnings before tax, $m
  -25
  -35
  -48
  -65
  -87
  -113
  -145
  -182
  -226
  -275
  -325
  -388
  -457
  -532
  -614
  -701
  -795
  -894
  -999
  -1,110
  -1,226
  -1,348
  -1,475
  -1,608
  -1,746
  -1,890
  -2,039
  -2,194
  -2,356
  -2,523
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -25
  -35
  -48
  -65
  -87
  -113
  -145
  -182
  -226
  -275
  -325
  -388
  -457
  -532
  -614
  -701
  -795
  -894
  -999
  -1,110
  -1,226
  -1,348
  -1,475
  -1,608
  -1,746
  -1,890
  -2,039
  -2,194
  -2,356
  -2,523

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  259
  375
  527
  722
  966
  1,264
  1,623
  2,044
  2,533
  3,091
  3,718
  4,416
  5,185
  6,022
  6,928
  7,901
  8,939
  10,040
  11,204
  12,428
  13,713
  15,057
  16,461
  17,925
  19,449
  21,034
  22,682
  24,395
  26,176
  28,026
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  259
  375
  527
  722
  966
  1,264
  1,623
  2,044
  2,533
  3,091
  3,718
  4,416
  5,185
  6,022
  6,928
  7,901
  8,939
  10,040
  11,204
  12,428
  13,713
  15,057
  16,461
  17,925
  19,449
  21,034
  22,682
  24,395
  26,176
  28,026
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.722
  1.720
  1.721
  1.720
  1.720
  1.722
  1.721
  1.722
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
Average production assets, $m
  57
  83
  116
  159
  213
  279
  357
  450
  558
  681
  819
  973
  1,142
  1,327
  1,526
  1,740
  1,969
  2,212
  2,468
  2,738
  3,021
  3,317
  3,626
  3,949
  4,284
  4,634
  4,997
  5,374
  5,766
  6,174
Working capital, $m
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -51
  -61
  -71
  -83
  -95
  -109
  -123
  -138
  -154
  -171
  -189
  -207
  -227
  -247
  -268
  -290
  -312
  -336
  -360
  -386
Total debt, $m
  28
  65
  114
  177
  256
  352
  468
  604
  762
  942
  1,145
  1,370
  1,618
  1,889
  2,182
  2,496
  2,831
  3,187
  3,563
  3,958
  4,373
  4,807
  5,261
  5,733
  6,226
  6,738
  7,270
  7,823
  8,398
  8,996
Total liabilities, $m
  84
  121
  170
  233
  312
  408
  524
  660
  818
  998
  1,201
  1,426
  1,675
  1,945
  2,238
  2,552
  2,887
  3,243
  3,619
  4,014
  4,429
  4,863
  5,317
  5,790
  6,282
  6,794
  7,326
  7,880
  8,455
  9,052
Total equity, $m
  176
  254
  357
  489
  654
  856
  1,099
  1,384
  1,715
  2,092
  2,517
  2,990
  3,510
  4,077
  4,690
  5,349
  6,051
  6,797
  7,585
  8,414
  9,284
  10,194
  11,144
  12,135
  13,167
  14,240
  15,356
  16,516
  17,721
  18,973
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  260
  375
  527
  722
  966
  1,264
  1,623
  2,044
  2,533
  3,090
  3,718
  4,416
  5,185
  6,022
  6,928
  7,901
  8,938
  10,040
  11,204
  12,428
  13,713
  15,057
  16,461
  17,925
  19,449
  21,034
  22,682
  24,396
  26,176
  28,025
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.160
  0.260
  0.320
  0.360
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -25
  -35
  -48
  -65
  -87
  -113
  -145
  -182
  -226
  -275
  -325
  -388
  -457
  -532
  -614
  -701
  -795
  -894
  -999
  -1,110
  -1,226
  -1,348
  -1,475
  -1,608
  -1,746
  -1,890
  -2,039
  -2,194
  -2,356
  -2,523
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  20
  25
  32
  41
  52
  65
  80
  97
  118
  134
  159
  187
  217
  250
  285
  323
  363
  405
  449
  495
  544
  594
  647
  702
  760
  819
  881
  945
  1,012
Funds from operations, $m
  -10
  -16
  -23
  -33
  -46
  -62
  -80
  -102
  -128
  -158
  -191
  -228
  -270
  -315
  -363
  -416
  -472
  -532
  -595
  -661
  -731
  -804
  -881
  -961
  -1,044
  -1,130
  -1,220
  -1,313
  -1,410
  -1,511
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
Cash from operations, $m
  -9
  -14
  -21
  -31
  -43
  -57
  -75
  -97
  -121
  -150
  -183
  -219
  -259
  -303
  -351
  -403
  -458
  -517
  -579
  -645
  -714
  -786
  -861
  -940
  -1,023
  -1,108
  -1,197
  -1,290
  -1,386
  -1,486
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -9
  -14
  -19
  -26
  -35
  -46
  -59
  -74
  -91
  -112
  -134
  -159
  -187
  -217
  -250
  -285
  -323
  -363
  -405
  -449
  -495
  -544
  -594
  -647
  -702
  -760
  -819
  -881
  -945
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -25
  -33
  -43
  -54
  -66
  -79
  -93
  -108
  -123
  -138
  -154
  -169
  -185
  -200
  -214
  -229
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -283
  -296
  -309
  -322
  -336
  -349
  -363
  -377
  -392
  -408
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -34
  -47
  -62
  -80
  -101
  -125
  -152
  -182
  -214
  -250
  -288
  -328
  -372
  -417
  -464
  -514
  -566
  -619
  -675
  -732
  -791
  -853
  -916
  -983
  -1,051
  -1,123
  -1,196
  -1,273
  -1,353
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  -49
  -68
  -93
  -122
  -158
  -200
  -248
  -303
  -364
  -432
  -507
  -588
  -675
  -768
  -867
  -972
  -1,082
  -1,198
  -1,319
  -1,445
  -1,577
  -1,714
  -1,857
  -2,006
  -2,160
  -2,320
  -2,486
  -2,659
  -2,838
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  28
  37
  49
  63
  79
  96
  116
  136
  158
  180
  203
  225
  248
  271
  293
  314
  335
  356
  376
  396
  415
  434
  453
  473
  492
  512
  532
  553
  575
  598
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  83
  113
  151
  197
  252
  315
  387
  468
  556
  653
  750
  861
  977
  1,099
  1,227
  1,360
  1,497
  1,640
  1,787
  1,939
  2,096
  2,258
  2,426
  2,599
  2,778
  2,963
  3,155
  3,354
  3,561
  3,776
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  111
  150
  200
  260
  331
  411
  503
  604
  714
  833
  953
  1,086
  1,225
  1,370
  1,520
  1,674
  1,832
  1,996
  2,163
  2,335
  2,511
  2,692
  2,879
  3,072
  3,270
  3,475
  3,687
  3,907
  4,136
  4,374
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  76
  102
  132
  168
  208
  254
  303
  356
  411
  468
  521
  579
  637
  695
  752
  807
  861
  914
  965
  1,016
  1,066
  1,115
  1,165
  1,214
  1,264
  1,315
  1,367
  1,421
  1,477
  1,535
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -83
  -113
  -151
  -197
  -252
  -315
  -387
  -468
  -556
  -653
  -750
  -861
  -977
  -1,099
  -1,227
  -1,360
  -1,497
  -1,640
  -1,787
  -1,939
  -2,096
  -2,258
  -2,426
  -2,599
  -2,778
  -2,963
  -3,155
  -3,354
  -3,561
  -3,776
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -6
  -12
  -19
  -30
  -44
  -62
  -84
  -112
  -145
  -184
  -230
  -281
  -340
  -404
  -475
  -553
  -637
  -726
  -822
  -923
  -1,030
  -1,143
  -1,261
  -1,384
  -1,513
  -1,648
  -1,787
  -1,933
  -2,084
  -2,241
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -6
  -11
  -17
  -24
  -34
  -45
  -57
  -70
  -83
  -97
  -109
  -120
  -129
  -136
  -140
  -140
  -139
  -134
  -127
  -117
  -107
  -95
  -83
  -71
  -59
  -48
  -38
  -30
  -23
  -17
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  88.6
  79.2
  71.4
  64.8
  59.2
  54.4
  50.2
  46.6
  43.4
  40.6
  38.0
  35.8
  33.8
  31.9
  30.3
  28.7
  27.3
  26.0
  24.8
  23.7
  22.7
  21.7
  20.8
  20.0
  19.2
  18.4
  17.7
  17.0
  16.3
  15.7

QuinStreet, Inc. is an online performance marketing company. The Company provides vertically oriented customer acquisition programs for its clients. The Company operating segments include Direct Marketing Services (DMS) business. Its DMS business derives its net revenue from fees earned through the delivery of qualified leads, clicks, calls or customers, and display advertisements, or impressions. Client verticals within its DMS business are education and financial services. The Company’s primary client verticals are the education and financial services industries. It has presence in the business-to-business technology, home services and medical industries. The Company delivers marketing results to its clients in the form of a qualified lead or inquiry, in the form of a qualified click, or call.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  QuinStreet (QNST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -51.7
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 5.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 38.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Return On Total Capital -9.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -11%
Return On Equity -9.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.9%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
EBITDA Margin -0.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Operating Margin -3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.9%
Net Profit Margin -4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.8%
Effective Tax Rate 7.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

QNST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QNST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $299.785 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by QuinStreet. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of QuinStreet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QNST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 48.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QNST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of QuinStreet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of QuinStreet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QNST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 106.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QNST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for QuinStreet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for QuinStreet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QNST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QNST are equal to 12.8%.

Life of production assets of 6.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in QuinStreet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QNST is equal to -0.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $118.082 million for QuinStreet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.134 million for QuinStreet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of QuinStreet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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