Intrinsic value of Quantenna Communications - QTNA

Previous Close

$16.15

  Intrinsic Value

$1.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

Previous close

$16.15

 
Intrinsic value

$1.20

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QTNA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.50
  12.65
  11.89
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.96
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.94
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
Revenue, $m
  200
  225
  252
  281
  310
  341
  374
  408
  443
  480
  518
  558
  599
  642
  686
  733
  781
  831
  883
  937
  994
  1,053
  1,114
  1,178
  1,245
  1,315
  1,388
  1,464
  1,544
  1,628
Variable operating expenses, $m
  201
  227
  254
  282
  312
  343
  376
  410
  445
  482
  520
  560
  601
  644
  689
  735
  784
  834
  886
  941
  998
  1,057
  1,118
  1,183
  1,250
  1,320
  1,393
  1,470
  1,550
  1,634
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  201
  227
  254
  282
  312
  343
  376
  410
  445
  482
  520
  560
  601
  644
  689
  735
  784
  834
  886
  941
  998
  1,057
  1,118
  1,183
  1,250
  1,320
  1,393
  1,470
  1,550
  1,634
Operating income, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
EBITDA, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
Earnings before tax, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  135
  152
  170
  190
  210
  231
  253
  275
  299
  324
  350
  377
  405
  434
  464
  495
  528
  561
  597
  633
  672
  711
  753
  796
  841
  889
  938
  989
  1,043
  1,100
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  135
  152
  170
  190
  210
  231
  253
  275
  299
  324
  350
  377
  405
  434
  464
  495
  528
  561
  597
  633
  672
  711
  753
  796
  841
  889
  938
  989
  1,043
  1,100
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.481
  1.480
  1.482
  1.479
  1.476
  1.476
  1.478
  1.484
  1.482
  1.481
  1.480
  1.480
  1.479
  1.479
  1.478
  1.481
  1.479
  1.481
  1.479
  1.480
  1.479
  1.481
  1.479
  1.480
  1.480
  1.479
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
Average production assets, $m
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
Working capital, $m
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  117
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
Total debt, $m
  8
  12
  16
  21
  25
  30
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  93
  101
  109
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
Total liabilities, $m
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  169
  178
  189
  199
  211
  222
  235
  247
  261
Total equity, $m
  103
  116
  130
  145
  160
  176
  193
  210
  228
  247
  267
  287
  309
  331
  354
  378
  403
  428
  455
  483
  512
  543
  574
  608
  642
  678
  716
  755
  796
  839
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  135
  152
  170
  190
  210
  231
  253
  275
  299
  324
  350
  376
  405
  434
  464
  495
  528
  561
  596
  633
  671
  712
  752
  797
  841
  889
  938
  990
  1,043
  1,100
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
Free cash flow, $m
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  82
  85
  90
  94
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  90
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  89
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  85
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.5
  91.3
  87.5
  83.9
  80.6
  77.4
  74.5
  71.7
  69.1
  66.6
  64.3
  62.2
  60.1
  58.1
  56.2
  54.4
  52.6
  51.0
  49.4
  47.8
  46.3
  44.9
  43.5
  42.2
  40.9
  39.7
  38.5
  37.3
  36.2
  35.1

Quantenna Communications, Inc. is engaged in the design, development and marketing of wireless communication solutions enabling wireless local area networking. The Company's solutions are designed to deliver wireless fidelity (Wi-Fi) performance to support various connected devices accessing a pool of digital content. The Company combines its wireless systems and software expertise with radio frequency, mixed-signal and digital semiconductor design skills to provide solutions to its customers. Its products include QSR10G, QSR2000, QSR1000, QHS710 and MAUI. The Company offers its products for home networking applications, including home gateways, repeaters, and set-top boxes. Its solutions portfolio consists of various generations of its radio frequency chip and its digital baseband chip, which together support the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Wi-Fi standards, including 802.11n and 802.11ac.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Quantenna Communications (QTNA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -267.1
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 267.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -534.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 53.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 59
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 3.1%
Total Debt to Equity 4.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -27%
Return On Total Capital -2.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.3%
Return On Equity -2.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -57%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.2%
EBITDA Margin -0.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.6%
Operating Margin -0.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Net Profit Margin -1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

QTNA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QTNA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $176.359 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Quantenna Communications. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Quantenna Communications. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QTNA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QTNA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Quantenna Communications, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Quantenna Communications.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QTNA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QTNA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 14.4% for Quantenna Communications.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Quantenna Communications. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QTNA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QTNA are equal to 5.5%.

Life of production assets of 4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Quantenna Communications operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QTNA is equal to 9.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $180.603 million for Quantenna Communications - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.905 million for Quantenna Communications is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Quantenna Communications at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Quantenna to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-02-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Quantenna Expands Its 11ax Product Portfolio   [Sep-12-18 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Quantenna to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Aug-02-18 08:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Quantenna to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-21-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Chip Stocks Notch Solid Gains After Latest Earnings Reports   [May-01-18 07:40PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Quantenna to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Jan-11-18 07:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Quantennas Sam Heidari Named UBM Executive of the Year   [Dec-11-17 11:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Quantenna to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-28-17 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Why Quantenna Communications, Inc. Stock Fell 35% Today   [Nov-07-17 02:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Quantenna Announces Third Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Nov-06-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Quantenna and SoftAtHome Partner to Extend Smart Home Wi-Fi   [Sep-16-17 12:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Quantenna Announces Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-07-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Quantenna to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Aug-01-17 10:40PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Stocks That Look Just Like Nike in 1980   [Jun-18-17 11:09AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [May-09-17 10:23AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Quantenna Announces First Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [May-08-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Okta IPO tops investors' unicorn valuation, stock debuts up over 38%   [Apr-07-17 04:44PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Microchip, Quantenna Rated Buy; Skyworks Gets Price Hike   [Apr-04-17 04:45PM  Investor's Business Daily]

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