Intrinsic value of QuickLogic Corporation - QUIK

Previous Close

$0.75

  Intrinsic Value

$0.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$0.75

 
Intrinsic value

$0.04

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QUIK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.10
  16.79
  15.61
  14.55
  13.59
  12.74
  11.96
  11.27
  10.64
  10.08
  9.57
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.18
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
Revenue, $m
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
Variable operating expenses, $m
  38
  44
  51
  58
  66
  75
  84
  93
  103
  114
  124
  136
  148
  160
  173
  186
  200
  214
  229
  245
  261
  277
  295
  313
  332
  352
  372
  394
  416
  439
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  38
  44
  51
  58
  66
  75
  84
  93
  103
  114
  124
  136
  148
  160
  173
  186
  200
  214
  229
  245
  261
  277
  295
  313
  332
  352
  372
  394
  416
  439
Operating income, $m
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -143
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -196
  -208
  -220
  -233
  -246
  -260
  -275
EBITDA, $m
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -40
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -240
  -253
  -268
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -154
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -263
  -277
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -154
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -263
  -277

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  44
  47
  52
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  110
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  44
  47
  52
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  110
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.077
  1.133
  1.056
  1.100
  1.087
  1.077
  1.069
  1.061
  1.083
  1.075
  1.068
  1.085
  1.058
  1.071
  1.083
  1.077
  1.071
  1.067
  1.075
  1.070
  1.077
  1.072
  1.078
  1.064
  1.069
  1.073
  1.077
  1.072
  1.068
  1.071
Average production assets, $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
Working capital, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
Total debt, $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
Total liabilities, $m
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
Total equity, $m
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  43
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.800
  0.750
  0.710
  0.670
  0.650
  0.620
  0.600
  0.590
  0.580
  0.560
  0.550
  0.540
  0.540
  0.530
  0.520
  0.520
  0.510
  0.510
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691
  0.691

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -154
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -263
  -277
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Funds from operations, $m
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -64
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -106
  -114
  -123
  -132
  -141
  -150
  -160
  -171
  -181
  -193
  -204
  -216
  -229
  -242
  -256
  -270
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -71
  -77
  -84
  -92
  -99
  -107
  -115
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -152
  -162
  -172
  -183
  -194
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -244
  -258
  -272
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Free cash flow, $m
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -177
  -189
  -200
  -212
  -225
  -238
  -251
  -266
  -281
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  25
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  68
  74
  81
  89
  96
  104
  112
  121
  129
  139
  148
  158
  168
  179
  190
  202
  214
  227
  240
  254
  268
  283
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  26
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  69
  75
  82
  90
  97
  105
  113
  122
  130
  141
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  286
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -74
  -81
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -129
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -268
  -283
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -17
  -28
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -118
  -127
  -136
  -145
  -155
  -165
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -223
  -236
  -249
  -263
  -278
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -16
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -37
  -37
  -36
  -34
  -32
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  59.4
  35.5
  21.3
  12.9
  7.8
  4.8
  2.9
  1.8
  1.1
  0.7
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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QuickLogic Corporation develops and markets semiconductor and software algorithm solutions. The Company's solutions primarily target smartphones, wearable devices, tablets, and the Internet-of-Things (IoT). The Company is a fabless semiconductor provider of flexible sensor processing solutions, ultra-low power display bridges, and ultra-low power Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs). The Company's solutions integrate multi-core processing, programmable logic, sensor fusion and context aware algorithms, and embedded software. The Company's solutions are created from its new silicon platforms, including EOS, ArcticLink III, PolarPro 3, PolarPro II, PolarPro, and Eclipse II products, its mature products, which are produced on semiconductor processes over 180 nanometers, primarily include its pASIC 3 and QuickRAM, as well as royalty revenue, programming hardware and design software. Its sensor algorithm software includes SenseMe software library.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  QuickLogic Corporation (QUIK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.7
Price to Sales 4.6
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -42.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 50%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -76%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -52.4%
Return On Total Capital -95%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -63%
Return On Equity -118.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -72.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.3%
EBITDA Margin -163.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -97.5%
Operating Margin -172.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -102.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -172.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -104.6%
Net Profit Margin -172.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -104.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

QUIK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QUIK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by QuickLogic Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of QuickLogic Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QUIK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QUIK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of QuickLogic Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of QuickLogic Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QUIK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 266.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QUIK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for QuickLogic Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for QuickLogic Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QUIK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QUIK are equal to 21.4%.

Life of production assets of 1.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in QuickLogic Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QUIK is equal to 19.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $14.878 million for QuickLogic Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 95.197 million for QuickLogic Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of QuickLogic Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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