Intrinsic value of uniQure - QURE

Previous Close

$23.93

  Intrinsic Value

$0.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$23.93

 
Intrinsic value

$0.55

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QURE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
Variable operating expenses, $m
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  158
  165
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  158
  165
Operating income, $m
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
EBITDA, $m
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  -41
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -41
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.186
  0.194
  0.189
  0.184
  0.192
  0.185
  0.193
  0.186
  0.189
  0.194
  0.186
  0.188
  0.190
  0.193
  0.193
  0.193
  0.194
  0.192
  0.191
  0.190
  0.188
  0.192
  0.190
  0.187
  0.190
  0.193
  0.189
  0.189
  0.190
  0.190
Average production assets, $m
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
Working capital, $m
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
Total debt, $m
  -35
  -34
  -32
  -30
  -28
  -26
  -23
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -4
  0
  4
  9
  13
  19
  24
  29
  35
  42
  48
  55
  62
  70
  78
  87
  96
  105
Total liabilities, $m
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  204
Total equity, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  70
  72
  73
  76
  78
  81
  83
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -4.990
  -4.680
  -4.330
  -3.970
  -3.590
  -3.190
  -2.790
  -2.390
  -1.980
  -1.570
  -1.170
  -0.770
  -0.380
  0.000
  0.370
  0.730
  1.080
  1.420
  1.750
  2.070
  2.380
  2.670
  2.960
  3.230
  3.490
  3.750
  3.990
  4.220
  4.440
  4.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -41
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  -33
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  -33
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
Free cash flow, $m
  -41
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -136
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -56
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  99
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  43
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  54
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -99
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  140
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  43
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  41
  -31
  -31
  -30
  -29
  -28
  -27
  -26
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  32.7
  21.3
  13.8
  8.9
  5.8
  3.7
  2.4
  1.5
  1.0
  0.6
  0.4
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Uniqure NV is a gene therapy company based in the Netherlands. The Company is engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of single treatments with curative results for patients suffering from genetic and other severe diseases. The Company advances a focused pipeline of gene therapies that are developed both internally and through partnerships. The Company’s product candidates within the Core Program include AMT-061 for Hemophilia B, AMT-130 for Huntington's disease and S100A1 for congestive heart failure. The Company, through its collaboration with Bristol Myers-Squibb (BMS), is focused on building a portfolio of gene therapies led by the S100A1 program for congestive heart failure.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  uniQure (QURE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -8.3
Price to Sales 24.2
Price to Book 9.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -8.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 127.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 112.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 133
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 29.7%
Total Debt to Equity 31.3%
Interest Coverage -35
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -31.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.1%
Return On Total Capital -62.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -86.3%
Return On Equity -76%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -115.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -256%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -562.6%
Operating Margin -288%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -611.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -288%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -625.3%
Net Profit Margin -292%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -623.6%
Effective Tax Rate -1.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

QURE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QURE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $13.107 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by uniQure. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of uniQure. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QURE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QURE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of uniQure, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of uniQure.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QURE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 392.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QURE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.9% for uniQure.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for uniQure. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QURE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QURE are equal to 305.5%.

Life of production assets of 5.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in uniQure operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QURE is equal to -113.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $89.359 million for uniQure - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.272 million for uniQure is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of uniQure at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ UniQure: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ Achillion Appoints Paul Firuta Chief Operating Officer   [Sep-10-18 06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ uniQure to Participate at Multiple Upcoming Conferences   [Aug-30-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Play The Future of Gene Therapy With These 5 Biotech Stocks   [Aug-27-18 12:14PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ UniQure: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Gene Therapy Companies In Hot Pursuit Of A 'One-And-Done' Cure   [Jul-13-18 03:35PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Are These 3 Red-Hot Gene Therapy Stocks Still Buys?   [Jun-25-18 08:49AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Cutting-Edge Biotech Stocks That Can Double in Value   [May-14-18 07:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ 3 High-Growth Stocks That Could Soar   [May-09-18 03:05PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 2 Cheap Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now   [May-04-18 08:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ uniQure Announces Pricing of its Public Offering   [May-02-18 07:32PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ uniQure Announces Proposed Public Offering   [May-01-18 04:04PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ UniQure: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:30AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kensho's genetic engineering index   [Apr-27-18 11:10AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Janney: Buy The Dip In Uniqure   [Mar-20-18 11:39AM  Benzinga]
▶ uniQure to Participate in Multiple Conferences in March   [Feb-27-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ uniQure to Participate in Multiple Conferences in February   [Feb-01-18 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ uniQure Added to NASDAQ Biotechnology Index   [Dec-11-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ UniQure reports 3Q loss   [07:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ uniQure Announces Closing of its Public Offering   [Oct-27-17 04:03PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ uniQure Announces Pricing of its Public Offering   [Oct-24-17 08:14PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ uniQure Announces Proposed Public Offering   [Oct-23-17 04:06PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why uniQure N.V. Stock Is Hopping Today   [Oct-20-17 03:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Should You Buy uniQure NV (QURE)?   [Sep-21-17 09:34PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ UniQure reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 05:22PM  Associated Press]

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