Intrinsic value of Raven Industries - RAVN

Previous Close

$47.85

  Intrinsic Value

$33.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-31%

Previous close

$47.85

 
Intrinsic value

$33.20

 
Up/down potential

-31%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RAVN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.80
  17.42
  16.18
  15.06
  14.05
  13.15
  12.33
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
Revenue, $m
  448
  526
  611
  704
  802
  908
  1,020
  1,138
  1,263
  1,393
  1,530
  1,673
  1,822
  1,977
  2,138
  2,306
  2,480
  2,661
  2,849
  3,045
  3,248
  3,460
  3,680
  3,909
  4,147
  4,395
  4,654
  4,924
  5,206
  5,500
Variable operating expenses, $m
  310
  364
  421
  484
  551
  623
  699
  780
  864
  953
  1,040
  1,137
  1,239
  1,344
  1,453
  1,567
  1,686
  1,809
  1,937
  2,070
  2,208
  2,352
  2,501
  2,657
  2,819
  2,988
  3,164
  3,348
  3,539
  3,739
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
  103
  105
  107
  109
Total operating expenses, $m
  368
  424
  482
  546
  615
  688
  765
  848
  933
  1,024
  1,112
  1,211
  1,315
  1,421
  1,532
  1,648
  1,769
  1,893
  2,023
  2,158
  2,298
  2,444
  2,595
  2,753
  2,917
  3,088
  3,267
  3,453
  3,646
  3,848
Operating income, $m
  80
  103
  129
  157
  188
  220
  254
  291
  329
  370
  418
  462
  508
  556
  606
  658
  712
  768
  826
  887
  950
  1,016
  1,084
  1,155
  1,230
  1,307
  1,388
  1,472
  1,560
  1,652
EBITDA, $m
  100
  126
  155
  186
  220
  255
  293
  334
  376
  421
  467
  516
  567
  620
  675
  733
  792
  854
  919
  986
  1,056
  1,128
  1,204
  1,283
  1,365
  1,450
  1,539
  1,632
  1,729
  1,831
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
Earnings before tax, $m
  80
  103
  128
  156
  185
  217
  251
  286
  324
  363
  410
  453
  498
  545
  594
  645
  698
  752
  809
  869
  931
  995
  1,062
  1,131
  1,204
  1,280
  1,358
  1,441
  1,527
  1,617
Tax expense, $m
  21
  28
  35
  42
  50
  59
  68
  77
  87
  98
  111
  122
  135
  147
  160
  174
  188
  203
  219
  235
  251
  269
  287
  305
  325
  345
  367
  389
  412
  436
Net income, $m
  58
  75
  94
  114
  135
  158
  183
  209
  236
  265
  299
  331
  364
  398
  434
  471
  509
  549
  591
  634
  679
  726
  775
  826
  879
  934
  992
  1,052
  1,115
  1,180

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  384
  451
  524
  603
  688
  779
  875
  976
  1,083
  1,195
  1,312
  1,435
  1,562
  1,695
  1,834
  1,977
  2,127
  2,282
  2,444
  2,611
  2,786
  2,967
  3,156
  3,352
  3,557
  3,770
  3,992
  4,223
  4,465
  4,717
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  384
  451
  524
  603
  688
  779
  875
  976
  1,083
  1,195
  1,312
  1,435
  1,562
  1,695
  1,834
  1,977
  2,127
  2,282
  2,444
  2,611
  2,786
  2,967
  3,156
  3,352
  3,557
  3,770
  3,992
  4,223
  4,465
  4,717
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.167
  1.166
  1.166
  1.167
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
  1.166
Average production assets, $m
  159
  187
  217
  250
  285
  322
  362
  404
  448
  495
  543
  594
  647
  702
  759
  819
  880
  945
  1,011
  1,081
  1,153
  1,228
  1,306
  1,388
  1,472
  1,560
  1,652
  1,748
  1,848
  1,953
Working capital, $m
  99
  116
  135
  155
  177
  200
  224
  250
  278
  307
  337
  368
  401
  435
  470
  507
  546
  585
  627
  670
  715
  761
  810
  860
  912
  967
  1,024
  1,083
  1,145
  1,210
Total debt, $m
  10
  20
  32
  44
  57
  72
  87
  103
  119
  137
  155
  175
  195
  215
  237
  260
  283
  308
  333
  359
  387
  415
  445
  476
  508
  541
  576
  612
  650
  690
Total liabilities, $m
  60
  71
  82
  95
  108
  122
  137
  153
  170
  188
  206
  225
  245
  266
  288
  310
  334
  358
  384
  410
  437
  466
  495
  526
  558
  592
  627
  663
  701
  741
Total equity, $m
  324
  381
  442
  509
  580
  656
  737
  823
  913
  1,007
  1,106
  1,210
  1,317
  1,429
  1,546
  1,667
  1,793
  1,924
  2,060
  2,201
  2,348
  2,501
  2,660
  2,826
  2,998
  3,178
  3,365
  3,560
  3,764
  3,977
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  384
  452
  524
  604
  688
  778
  874
  976
  1,083
  1,195
  1,312
  1,435
  1,562
  1,695
  1,834
  1,977
  2,127
  2,282
  2,444
  2,611
  2,785
  2,967
  3,155
  3,352
  3,556
  3,770
  3,992
  4,223
  4,465
  4,718
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.030
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  58
  75
  94
  114
  135
  158
  183
  209
  236
  265
  299
  331
  364
  398
  434
  471
  509
  549
  591
  634
  679
  726
  775
  826
  879
  934
  992
  1,052
  1,115
  1,180
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  51
  50
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  160
  170
  179
Funds from operations, $m
  78
  98
  119
  142
  167
  194
  222
  252
  283
  316
  349
  385
  423
  462
  503
  546
  590
  636
  684
  733
  785
  839
  895
  953
  1,014
  1,077
  1,143
  1,212
  1,284
  1,359
Change in working capital, $m
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
Cash from operations, $m
  63
  81
  100
  122
  145
  170
  197
  226
  256
  287
  319
  354
  390
  428
  468
  509
  552
  596
  642
  690
  740
  792
  846
  903
  961
  1,023
  1,086
  1,153
  1,222
  1,295
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -160
  -170
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -43
  -47
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -248
  -260
  -274
Free cash flow, $m
  25
  38
  53
  69
  87
  107
  128
  150
  175
  200
  225
  253
  283
  314
  346
  380
  415
  451
  489
  528
  569
  612
  656
  702
  750
  799
  851
  905
  962
  1,021
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  34
  49
  65
  82
  101
  121
  143
  166
  191
  218
  244
  273
  303
  335
  368
  402
  438
  475
  514
  555
  596
  640
  685
  733
  782
  833
  886
  942
  1,000
  1,060
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -56
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -172
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -213
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -13
  -8
  3
  15
  29
  45
  62
  81
  101
  123
  145
  169
  195
  223
  251
  281
  312
  345
  378
  413
  449
  487
  526
  567
  609
  653
  699
  746
  796
  847
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -13
  -7
  3
  13
  23
  33
  42
  51
  58
  65
  69
  72
  74
  75
  74
  71
  68
  63
  58
  52
  46
  40
  34
  29
  24
  19
  15
  12
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Raven Industries, Inc. is a diversified technology company providing a range of products to customers within the industrial, agricultural, energy, construction and defense markets. The Company operates through three segments: Applied Technology Division (Applied Technology), Engineered Films Division (Engineered Films) and Aerostar Division (Aerostar). The Applied Technology segment designs, manufactures, sells and services precision agriculture products and information management tools for growers. The Engineered Films segment produces plastic films and sheeting for energy, agricultural, construction, geomembrane and industrial applications. The Aerostar segment designs and manufactures products, including balloons, tethered aerostats and radar processing systems. It conducts business through its subsidiaries, including Aerostar International, Inc. (Aerostar), Vista Research, Inc. (Vista), Raven International Holding Company BV (Raven Holdings) and Raven Industries Canada, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Raven Industries (RAVN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 86.3
Price to Sales 6.2
Price to Book 6.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 35.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 39.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -61.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -30.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 7.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 10.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Payout Ratio 95%

RAVN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RAVN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $377.317 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Raven Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Raven Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RAVN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RAVN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Raven Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Raven Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RAVN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $57 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RAVN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Raven Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Raven Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RAVN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RAVN are equal to 35.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Raven Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RAVN is equal to 22%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $276.064 million for Raven Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.886 million for Raven Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Raven Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Raven to Host Institutional Investor Day   [Sep-07-18 11:13AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Raven and Topcon Agriculture Announce API Partnership   [Sep-06-18 10:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Company News For Aug 24, 2018   [Aug-24-18 10:19AM  Zacks]
▶ Raven Industries Soars on Another Solid Quarter   [Aug-23-18 05:16PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Nasdaq Gives Back Gains, But Tractor Supply Rises   [12:03PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Raven Industries: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-22-18 06:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Raven Industries Q2 Earnings Preview   [07:43AM  Benzinga]
▶ Raven Industries Announces Executive Retirement   [Aug-13-18 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Raven and AgJunction Settle Lawsuit   [Jul-11-18 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ General Electric (GE) Secures Order for 50 New Locomotives   [Jun-22-18 02:45PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Raven Indusries Releases CR12(TM) Field Computer   [Jun-18-18 10:50AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Raven Indusries Releases CR12 Field Computer   [10:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Stocks That Look Just Like eBay in 1998   [06:31PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-17-18 06:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ Raven Industries Renames Subsidiary   [May-01-18 10:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Raven Establishes Latin America Headquarters In Brazil   [Apr-16-18 12:34PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 High-Growth Stocks That Are Just Getting Started   [Apr-09-18 08:02AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries posts 4Q profit   [Mar-06-18 06:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Raven and Capstan Settle Lawsuit   [Mar-01-18 07:59PM  GlobeNewswire]

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