Intrinsic value of Raven Industries - RAVN

Previous Close

$39.70

  Intrinsic Value

$80.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+103%

Previous close

$39.70

 
Intrinsic value

$80.59

 
Up/down potential

+103%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of RAVN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2018), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047
   2048

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.00
  32.90
  30.11
  27.60
  25.34
  23.31
  21.47
  19.83
  18.34
  17.01
  15.81
  14.73
  13.76
  12.88
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.19
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.23
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
Revenue, $m
  513
  681
  887
  1,131
  1,418
  1,748
  2,124
  2,545
  3,012
  3,524
  4,081
  4,682
  5,326
  6,012
  6,739
  7,506
  8,313
  9,158
  10,042
  10,965
  11,927
  12,928
  13,969
  15,051
  16,175
  17,344
  18,559
  19,821
  21,134
  22,499
Variable operating expenses, $m
  353
  467
  606
  771
  965
  1,189
  1,443
  1,728
  2,044
  2,391
  2,762
  3,169
  3,605
  4,070
  4,562
  5,081
  5,627
  6,199
  6,798
  7,422
  8,073
  8,750
  9,455
  10,188
  10,949
  11,740
  12,562
  13,417
  14,305
  15,229
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
Total operating expenses, $m
  412
  528
  668
  834
  1,030
  1,255
  1,511
  1,797
  2,115
  2,463
  2,836
  3,244
  3,682
  4,149
  4,642
  5,163
  5,711
  6,285
  6,886
  7,512
  8,165
  8,844
  9,551
  10,286
  11,049
  11,842
  12,666
  13,524
  14,414
  15,340
Operating income, $m
  101
  154
  219
  297
  388
  493
  613
  748
  897
  1,061
  1,245
  1,438
  1,644
  1,864
  2,097
  2,343
  2,602
  2,873
  3,157
  3,453
  3,762
  4,084
  4,418
  4,765
  5,127
  5,502
  5,892
  6,298
  6,720
  7,159
EBITDA, $m
  128
  189
  262
  351
  454
  573
  709
  862
  1,031
  1,217
  1,419
  1,638
  1,872
  2,121
  2,385
  2,664
  2,957
  3,265
  3,586
  3,922
  4,271
  4,636
  5,014
  5,408
  5,817
  6,243
  6,685
  7,144
  7,622
  8,119
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  58
  64
  70
  77
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  123
  132
  141
  151
Earnings before tax, $m
  101
  153
  217
  293
  382
  486
  603
  735
  881
  1,042
  1,222
  1,411
  1,613
  1,828
  2,056
  2,297
  2,550
  2,816
  3,093
  3,383
  3,685
  4,000
  4,327
  4,667
  5,020
  5,387
  5,769
  6,166
  6,579
  7,008
Tax expense, $m
  27
  41
  58
  79
  103
  131
  163
  198
  238
  281
  330
  381
  435
  494
  555
  620
  689
  760
  835
  913
  995
  1,080
  1,168
  1,260
  1,355
  1,455
  1,558
  1,665
  1,776
  1,892
Net income, $m
  74
  112
  158
  214
  279
  354
  440
  536
  643
  760
  892
  1,030
  1,177
  1,335
  1,501
  1,677
  1,862
  2,056
  2,258
  2,470
  2,690
  2,920
  3,158
  3,407
  3,665
  3,933
  4,211
  4,501
  4,802
  5,116

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  439
  584
  760
  969
  1,215
  1,498
  1,820
  2,181
  2,581
  3,020
  3,497
  4,012
  4,564
  5,152
  5,775
  6,432
  7,123
  7,848
  8,605
  9,396
  10,220
  11,078
  11,970
  12,897
  13,861
  14,862
  15,903
  16,985
  18,110
  19,280
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  439
  584
  760
  969
  1,215
  1,498
  1,820
  2,181
  2,581
  3,020
  3,497
  4,012
  4,564
  5,152
  5,775
  6,432
  7,123
  7,848
  8,605
  9,396
  10,220
  11,078
  11,970
  12,897
  13,861
  14,862
  15,903
  16,985
  18,110
  19,280
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.169
  1.166
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
  1.167
Average production assets, $m
  219
  291
  379
  483
  605
  747
  907
  1,087
  1,286
  1,505
  1,743
  1,999
  2,274
  2,567
  2,878
  3,205
  3,550
  3,911
  4,288
  4,682
  5,093
  5,520
  5,965
  6,427
  6,907
  7,406
  7,925
  8,464
  9,024
  9,607
Working capital, $m
  57
  76
  99
  127
  159
  196
  238
  285
  337
  395
  457
  524
  597
  673
  755
  841
  931
  1,026
  1,125
  1,228
  1,336
  1,448
  1,564
  1,686
  1,812
  1,943
  2,079
  2,220
  2,367
  2,520
Total debt, $m
  18
  41
  68
  101
  140
  184
  235
  292
  354
  423
  498
  579
  666
  758
  856
  959
  1,068
  1,181
  1,300
  1,424
  1,554
  1,688
  1,828
  1,974
  2,125
  2,283
  2,446
  2,616
  2,792
  2,976
Total liabilities, $m
  69
  92
  119
  152
  191
  235
  286
  342
  405
  474
  549
  630
  717
  809
  907
  1,010
  1,118
  1,232
  1,351
  1,475
  1,605
  1,739
  1,879
  2,025
  2,176
  2,333
  2,497
  2,667
  2,843
  3,027
Total equity, $m
  370
  492
  640
  817
  1,024
  1,263
  1,534
  1,838
  2,176
  2,546
  2,948
  3,382
  3,848
  4,343
  4,868
  5,422
  6,005
  6,616
  7,254
  7,921
  8,615
  9,338
  10,090
  10,872
  11,685
  12,529
  13,406
  14,318
  15,266
  16,253
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  439
  584
  759
  969
  1,215
  1,498
  1,820
  2,180
  2,581
  3,020
  3,497
  4,012
  4,565
  5,152
  5,775
  6,432
  7,123
  7,848
  8,605
  9,396
  10,220
  11,077
  11,969
  12,897
  13,861
  14,862
  15,903
  16,985
  18,109
  19,280
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.050
  0.080
  0.110
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843
  0.843

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  74
  112
  158
  214
  279
  354
  440
  536
  643
  760
  892
  1,030
  1,177
  1,335
  1,501
  1,677
  1,862
  2,056
  2,258
  2,470
  2,690
  2,920
  3,158
  3,407
  3,665
  3,933
  4,211
  4,501
  4,802
  5,116
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  28
  35
  44
  54
  66
  80
  96
  114
  134
  156
  174
  200
  227
  257
  288
  321
  355
  391
  429
  468
  509
  552
  596
  643
  691
  741
  792
  846
  902
  961
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  146
  202
  268
  345
  435
  537
  651
  778
  917
  1,066
  1,230
  1,405
  1,591
  1,789
  1,997
  2,217
  2,447
  2,687
  2,938
  3,199
  3,472
  3,755
  4,049
  4,355
  4,673
  5,004
  5,347
  5,705
  6,076
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
Cash from operations, $m
  86
  128
  179
  240
  313
  398
  495
  604
  725
  859
  1,004
  1,162
  1,333
  1,514
  1,707
  1,911
  2,126
  2,352
  2,588
  2,835
  3,092
  3,360
  3,638
  3,928
  4,229
  4,542
  4,868
  5,206
  5,558
  5,923
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -22
  -29
  -38
  -48
  -61
  -75
  -91
  -109
  -129
  -150
  -174
  -200
  -227
  -257
  -288
  -321
  -355
  -391
  -429
  -468
  -509
  -552
  -596
  -643
  -691
  -741
  -792
  -846
  -902
New CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -72
  -88
  -104
  -122
  -141
  -160
  -180
  -199
  -219
  -238
  -257
  -275
  -293
  -310
  -328
  -344
  -361
  -377
  -394
  -411
  -427
  -445
  -462
  -480
  -499
  -519
  -539
  -560
  -583
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -94
  -117
  -142
  -170
  -202
  -235
  -271
  -308
  -348
  -388
  -431
  -475
  -520
  -567
  -616
  -665
  -716
  -768
  -823
  -879
  -936
  -997
  -1,058
  -1,123
  -1,190
  -1,260
  -1,331
  -1,406
  -1,485
Free cash flow, $m
  12
  34
  62
  98
  143
  196
  260
  333
  417
  512
  616
  732
  858
  994
  1,140
  1,296
  1,461
  1,636
  1,819
  2,012
  2,213
  2,423
  2,642
  2,870
  3,106
  3,353
  3,609
  3,875
  4,151
  4,438
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  18
  23
  28
  33
  39
  44
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  24
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  42
  33
  28
  33
  39
  44
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  67
  90
  131
  181
  241
  310
  390
  480
  581
  691
  812
  944
  1,086
  1,238
  1,399
  1,570
  1,750
  1,938
  2,136
  2,342
  2,558
  2,782
  3,015
  3,258
  3,510
  3,772
  4,044
  4,327
  4,622
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -98
  -122
  -148
  -177
  -207
  -239
  -271
  -304
  -337
  -370
  -402
  -434
  -465
  -496
  -525
  -554
  -583
  -611
  -639
  -667
  -695
  -723
  -752
  -782
  -812
  -844
  -877
  -912
  -948
  -986
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  30
  35
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  75
  83
  92
  100
  110
  119
  129
  140
  151
  162
  173
  186
  198
  211
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -40
  -55
  -59
  -46
  -26
  2
  39
  86
  143
  211
  288
  378
  479
  591
  713
  845
  987
  1,139
  1,300
  1,469
  1,648
  1,835
  2,030
  2,233
  2,445
  2,666
  2,895
  3,132
  3,379
  3,635
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -38
  -51
  -51
  -38
  -20
  1
  26
  54
  82
  111
  137
  161
  182
  198
  209
  215
  215
  210
  200
  187
  170
  152
  133
  114
  95
  78
  62
  48
  37
  27
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.3
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8

Raven Industries, Inc. is a diversified technology company providing a range of products to customers within the industrial, agricultural, energy, construction and defense markets. The Company operates through three segments: Applied Technology Division (Applied Technology), Engineered Films Division (Engineered Films) and Aerostar Division (Aerostar). The Applied Technology segment designs, manufactures, sells and services precision agriculture products and information management tools for growers. The Engineered Films segment produces plastic films and sheeting for energy, agricultural, construction, geomembrane and industrial applications. The Aerostar segment designs and manufactures products, including balloons, tethered aerostats and radar processing systems. It conducts business through its subsidiaries, including Aerostar International, Inc. (Aerostar), Vista Research, Inc. (Vista), Raven International Holding Company BV (Raven Holdings) and Raven Industries Canada, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Raven Industries (RAVN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 71.6
Price to Sales 5.2
Price to Book 5.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -61.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -30.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 7.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 10.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Payout Ratio 95%

RAVN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RAVN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $377 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Raven Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2018 income statement of Raven Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RAVN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 36% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RAVN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Raven Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Raven Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RAVN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $58 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RAVN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Raven Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Raven Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RAVN stock is equal to 1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RAVN are equal to 42.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Raven Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RAVN is equal to 11.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $276 million for Raven Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36 million for Raven Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Raven Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Raven and AgJunction Settle Lawsuit   [Jul-11-18 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ General Electric (GE) Secures Order for 50 New Locomotives   [Jun-22-18 02:45PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Raven Indusries Releases CR12(TM) Field Computer   [Jun-18-18 10:50AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Raven Indusries Releases CR12 Field Computer   [10:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Stocks That Look Just Like eBay in 1998   [06:31PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-17-18 06:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ Raven Industries Renames Subsidiary   [May-01-18 10:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Raven Establishes Latin America Headquarters In Brazil   [Apr-16-18 12:34PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 High-Growth Stocks That Are Just Getting Started   [Apr-09-18 08:02AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries posts 4Q profit   [Mar-06-18 06:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Raven and Capstan Settle Lawsuit   [Mar-01-18 07:59PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Stocks That Look Just Like Google in 2004   [Jan-21-18 06:00AM  Motley Fool]
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