Intrinsic value of Regal Beloit - RBC

Previous Close

$74.60

  Intrinsic Value

$56.88

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-24%

Previous close

$74.60

 
Intrinsic value

$56.88

 
Up/down potential

-24%

 
Rating

sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RBC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.12
  3.60
  3.74
  3.87
  3.98
  4.08
  4.17
  4.26
  4.33
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  3,225
  3,341
  3,466
  3,600
  3,743
  3,896
  4,059
  4,231
  4,415
  4,609
  4,814
  5,031
  5,261
  5,503
  5,759
  6,028
  6,312
  6,612
  6,927
  7,258
  7,608
  7,975
  8,362
  8,768
  9,196
  9,645
  10,118
  10,614
  11,137
  11,685
  12,262
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,095
  3,206
  3,324
  3,450
  3,585
  3,729
  3,881
  4,043
  4,215
  4,396
  4,442
  4,645
  4,859
  5,085
  5,323
  5,573
  5,838
  6,116
  6,409
  6,717
  7,042
  7,383
  7,742
  8,119
  8,516
  8,933
  9,372
  9,833
  10,317
  10,826
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,904
  3,095
  3,206
  3,324
  3,450
  3,585
  3,729
  3,881
  4,043
  4,215
  4,396
  4,442
  4,645
  4,859
  5,085
  5,323
  5,573
  5,838
  6,116
  6,409
  6,717
  7,042
  7,383
  7,742
  8,119
  8,516
  8,933
  9,372
  9,833
  10,317
  10,826
Operating income, $m
  321
  246
  260
  276
  293
  311
  330
  350
  371
  394
  418
  589
  616
  644
  674
  706
  739
  774
  811
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,026
  1,076
  1,129
  1,184
  1,242
  1,304
  1,368
  1,435
EBITDA, $m
  476
  470
  487
  506
  526
  548
  571
  595
  621
  648
  677
  707
  740
  774
  810
  847
  887
  929
  974
  1,020
  1,070
  1,121
  1,176
  1,233
  1,293
  1,356
  1,422
  1,492
  1,566
  1,643
  1,724
Interest expense (income), $m
  54
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  170
  179
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  250
Earnings before tax, $m
  266
  200
  212
  224
  238
  252
  268
  284
  301
  320
  339
  505
  526
  549
  573
  599
  625
  654
  683
  715
  747
  782
  818
  857
  897
  939
  984
  1,031
  1,080
  1,131
  1,186
Tax expense, $m
  57
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  92
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  176
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  254
  266
  278
  292
  305
  320
Net income, $m
  203
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  207
  220
  233
  247
  368
  384
  401
  419
  437
  457
  477
  499
  522
  546
  571
  597
  625
  655
  686
  718
  752
  788
  826
  866

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  288
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,359
  4,219
  4,376
  4,546
  4,726
  4,919
  5,125
  5,343
  5,574
  5,819
  6,079
  6,353
  6,643
  6,948
  7,271
  7,611
  7,970
  8,348
  8,746
  9,165
  9,606
  10,069
  10,558
  11,071
  11,611
  12,178
  12,775
  13,402
  14,061
  14,754
  15,482
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,071
  4,219
  4,376
  4,546
  4,726
  4,919
  5,125
  5,343
  5,574
  5,819
  6,079
  6,353
  6,643
  6,948
  7,271
  7,611
  7,970
  8,348
  8,746
  9,165
  9,606
  10,069
  10,558
  11,071
  11,611
  12,178
  12,775
  13,402
  14,061
  14,754
  15,482
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
  0.792
Average production assets, $m
  1,398
  1,447
  1,501
  1,559
  1,621
  1,687
  1,757
  1,832
  1,912
  1,996
  2,085
  2,179
  2,278
  2,383
  2,494
  2,610
  2,733
  2,863
  2,999
  3,143
  3,294
  3,453
  3,621
  3,797
  3,982
  4,176
  4,381
  4,596
  4,822
  5,060
  5,309
Working capital, $m
  830
  665
  690
  716
  745
  775
  808
  842
  879
  917
  958
  1,001
  1,047
  1,095
  1,146
  1,200
  1,256
  1,316
  1,378
  1,444
  1,514
  1,587
  1,664
  1,745
  1,830
  1,919
  2,013
  2,112
  2,216
  2,325
  2,440
Total debt, $m
  1,412
  1,391
  1,477
  1,569
  1,668
  1,773
  1,885
  2,004
  2,130
  2,263
  2,405
  2,554
  2,712
  2,879
  3,055
  3,240
  3,436
  3,642
  3,858
  4,087
  4,327
  4,580
  4,846
  5,126
  5,420
  5,729
  6,054
  6,396
  6,755
  7,133
  7,530
Total liabilities, $m
  2,320
  2,299
  2,385
  2,477
  2,576
  2,681
  2,793
  2,912
  3,038
  3,171
  3,313
  3,462
  3,620
  3,787
  3,963
  4,148
  4,344
  4,550
  4,766
  4,995
  5,235
  5,488
  5,754
  6,034
  6,328
  6,637
  6,962
  7,304
  7,663
  8,041
  8,438
Total equity, $m
  2,039
  1,919
  1,991
  2,068
  2,151
  2,238
  2,332
  2,431
  2,536
  2,648
  2,766
  2,891
  3,022
  3,162
  3,308
  3,463
  3,626
  3,798
  3,979
  4,170
  4,371
  4,582
  4,804
  5,037
  5,283
  5,541
  5,813
  6,098
  6,398
  6,713
  7,044
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,359
  4,218
  4,376
  4,545
  4,727
  4,919
  5,125
  5,343
  5,574
  5,819
  6,079
  6,353
  6,642
  6,949
  7,271
  7,611
  7,970
  8,348
  8,745
  9,165
  9,606
  10,070
  10,558
  11,071
  11,611
  12,178
  12,775
  13,402
  14,061
  14,754
  15,482
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.692
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.430
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  203
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  207
  220
  233
  247
  368
  384
  401
  419
  437
  457
  477
  499
  522
  546
  571
  597
  625
  655
  686
  718
  752
  788
  826
  866
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  155
  224
  227
  230
  233
  237
  241
  245
  249
  254
  259
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  262
  275
  289
Funds from operations, $m
  512
  370
  381
  394
  407
  421
  436
  452
  469
  487
  506
  487
  508
  530
  554
  579
  605
  633
  662
  692
  725
  759
  794
  832
  871
  913
  956
  1,002
  1,050
  1,101
  1,154
Change in working capital, $m
  72
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
Cash from operations, $m
  440
  347
  357
  367
  379
  391
  404
  418
  433
  448
  465
  444
  462
  482
  503
  525
  549
  573
  599
  626
  655
  685
  717
  751
  786
  823
  862
  903
  946
  992
  1,039
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
New CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -250
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  -125
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -279
  -292
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -355
  -373
  -391
  -411
  -432
  -453
  -476
  -500
  -525
Free cash flow, $m
  420
  222
  224
  228
  232
  237
  242
  248
  254
  261
  268
  236
  245
  254
  263
  273
  284
  295
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  412
  431
  450
  471
  492
  515
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -315
  80
  86
  92
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
  342
  359
  378
  397
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -335
  80
  86
  92
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
  342
  359
  378
  397
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  74
  302
  310
  320
  330
  342
  354
  366
  380
  394
  409
  386
  403
  420
  439
  459
  479
  501
  524
  548
  573
  600
  628
  658
  689
  722
  756
  792
  830
  870
  911
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -102
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -285
  -300
  -315
  -331
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  187
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  421
  238
  243
  248
  254
  260
  267
  275
  283
  291
  261
  271
  281
  292
  304
  316
  329
  343
  357
  373
  389
  406
  424
  443
  463
  484
  507
  530
  554
  580
Discount rate, %
 
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  398
  211
  201
  190
  180
  168
  157
  145
  133
  121
  95
  85
  76
  67
  58
  50
  42
  35
  29
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Regal Beloit Corporation is a manufacturer of electric motors, electrical motion controls, power generation and power transmission products. The Company operates through three segments: the Commercial and Industrial Systems segment, with its principal line of business in medium and large electric motors, power generation products, high-performance drives and controls and capacitors; the Climate Solutions segment, with its principal line of business in small motors, controls and air moving products, and the Power Transmission Solutions segment, with its principal line of business in power transmission gearing, hydraulic pump drives, open gearing and specialty mechanical products which control motion and torque. It sells its products directly to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors and end users. It operates distribution facilities in Plainfield, Indiana; McAllen, Texas; LaVergne, Tennessee, and Florence, Kentucky.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Regal Beloit (RBC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.5
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -29.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 64.3%
Total Debt to Equity 69.2%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Equity 10.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
EBITDA Margin 14.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Operating Margin 10%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Net Profit Margin 6.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Effective Tax Rate 21.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Payout Ratio 20.7%

RBC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RBC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3225 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Regal Beloit. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Regal Beloit. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RBC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for RBC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Regal Beloit, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Regal Beloit.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RBC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RBC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Regal Beloit.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Regal Beloit. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RBC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RBC are equal to 43.3%.

Life of production assets of 18.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Regal Beloit operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RBC is equal to 19.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2039 million for Regal Beloit - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 44.556 million for Regal Beloit is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Regal Beloit at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ CFO Moves: Regal Beloit Corp.   [Nov-06-17 03:36PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Regal Beloit misses 3Q profit forecasts   [07:32AM  Associated Press]
▶ Regal Beloit Corp to Host Earnings Call   [06:35AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Regal Beloit Announces Dividend   [Oct-30-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Regal Beloit beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-07-17 11:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Regal Beloit Announces Dividend   [Jul-26-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Regal Beloit Corp. : June 22, 2017   [Jun-22-17 04:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Regal Beloit beats Street 1Q forecasts   [May-08-17 04:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Regal Beloit Declares Quarterly Dividend Increase Of 8%   [May-01-17 06:59AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Regal Beloit Corporation To Host Investor Day   [Feb-08-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Regal Beloit meets 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-06-17 05:24PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of RBC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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