Intrinsic value of Redhill Biopharma Ltd. - RDHL

Previous Close

$8.10

  Intrinsic Value

$0.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$8.10

 
Intrinsic value

$0.41

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RDHL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  13
  20
  30
  43
  61
  83
  112
  147
  189
  238
  296
  362
  436
  519
  610
  710
  818
  934
  1,058
  1,189
  1,328
  1,474
  1,628
  1,789
  1,957
  2,132
  2,314
  2,504
  2,701
  2,906
Variable operating expenses, $m
  176
  271
  405
  588
  829
  1,140
  1,530
  2,008
  2,584
  3,264
  4,052
  4,954
  5,972
  7,105
  8,355
  9,718
  11,195
  12,781
  14,476
  16,275
  18,177
  20,179
  22,281
  24,482
  26,780
  29,176
  31,672
  34,268
  36,968
  39,774
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  176
  271
  405
  588
  829
  1,140
  1,530
  2,008
  2,584
  3,264
  4,052
  4,954
  5,972
  7,105
  8,355
  9,718
  11,195
  12,781
  14,476
  16,275
  18,177
  20,179
  22,281
  24,482
  26,780
  29,176
  31,672
  34,268
  36,968
  39,774
Operating income, $m
  -163
  -251
  -376
  -545
  -769
  -1,057
  -1,418
  -1,862
  -2,395
  -3,026
  -3,756
  -4,593
  -5,536
  -6,586
  -7,744
  -9,008
  -10,377
  -11,848
  -13,418
  -15,086
  -16,849
  -18,705
  -20,654
  -22,693
  -24,823
  -27,045
  -29,358
  -31,765
  -34,267
  -36,868
EBITDA, $m
  -162
  -251
  -375
  -544
  -767
  -1,055
  -1,416
  -1,859
  -2,393
  -3,022
  -3,753
  -4,588
  -5,530
  -6,580
  -7,737
  -9,000
  -10,367
  -11,836
  -13,405
  -15,072
  -16,833
  -18,688
  -20,634
  -22,672
  -24,800
  -27,019
  -29,330
  -31,735
  -34,235
  -36,834
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  14
  17
  22
  27
  32
  39
  46
  53
  61
  70
  79
  89
  100
  111
  123
  135
  148
  161
  175
  189
  204
Earnings before tax, $m
  -163
  -252
  -377
  -547
  -771
  -1,060
  -1,424
  -1,870
  -2,406
  -3,039
  -3,774
  -4,614
  -5,562
  -6,619
  -7,783
  -9,054
  -10,430
  -11,909
  -13,488
  -15,165
  -16,938
  -18,805
  -20,765
  -22,816
  -24,958
  -27,192
  -29,519
  -31,939
  -34,456
  -37,072
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -163
  -252
  -377
  -547
  -771
  -1,060
  -1,424
  -1,870
  -2,406
  -3,039
  -3,774
  -4,614
  -5,562
  -6,619
  -7,783
  -9,054
  -10,430
  -11,909
  -13,488
  -15,165
  -16,938
  -18,805
  -20,765
  -22,816
  -24,958
  -27,192
  -29,519
  -31,939
  -34,456
  -37,072

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  31
  48
  72
  105
  148
  204
  274
  360
  463
  584
  726
  887
  1,069
  1,272
  1,496
  1,740
  2,005
  2,289
  2,592
  2,914
  3,255
  3,613
  3,990
  4,384
  4,795
  5,224
  5,671
  6,136
  6,620
  7,122
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  31
  48
  72
  105
  148
  204
  274
  360
  463
  584
  726
  887
  1,069
  1,272
  1,496
  1,740
  2,005
  2,289
  2,592
  2,914
  3,255
  3,613
  3,990
  4,384
  4,795
  5,224
  5,671
  6,136
  6,620
  7,122
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.419
  0.417
  0.417
  0.410
  0.412
  0.407
  0.409
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
  0.408
Average production assets, $m
  5
  7
  11
  15
  22
  30
  40
  52
  67
  85
  105
  129
  155
  185
  217
  253
  291
  332
  376
  423
  473
  525
  580
  637
  697
  759
  824
  891
  962
  1,034
Working capital, $m
  -11
  -17
  -25
  -36
  -51
  -70
  -95
  -124
  -160
  -202
  -251
  -307
  -370
  -440
  -517
  -601
  -693
  -791
  -896
  -1,007
  -1,125
  -1,249
  -1,379
  -1,515
  -1,657
  -1,805
  -1,960
  -2,121
  -2,288
  -2,461
Total debt, $m
  7
  17
  30
  49
  74
  105
  145
  194
  253
  323
  404
  496
  600
  717
  845
  984
  1,135
  1,298
  1,471
  1,656
  1,851
  2,056
  2,271
  2,496
  2,732
  2,977
  3,233
  3,499
  3,775
  4,063
Total liabilities, $m
  18
  28
  41
  60
  85
  117
  157
  206
  265
  334
  415
  507
  612
  728
  856
  995
  1,147
  1,309
  1,483
  1,667
  1,862
  2,067
  2,282
  2,508
  2,743
  2,988
  3,244
  3,510
  3,787
  4,074
Total equity, $m
  13
  21
  31
  45
  64
  87
  117
  154
  198
  250
  311
  380
  458
  545
  640
  745
  858
  980
  1,109
  1,247
  1,393
  1,547
  1,708
  1,876
  2,052
  2,236
  2,427
  2,626
  2,833
  3,048
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  31
  49
  72
  105
  149
  204
  274
  360
  463
  584
  726
  887
  1,070
  1,273
  1,496
  1,740
  2,005
  2,289
  2,592
  2,914
  3,255
  3,614
  3,990
  4,384
  4,795
  5,224
  5,671
  6,136
  6,620
  7,122
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.500
  0.800
  0.970
  1.090
  1.160
  1.210
  1.240
  1.260
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428
  0.428

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -163
  -252
  -377
  -547
  -771
  -1,060
  -1,424
  -1,870
  -2,406
  -3,039
  -3,774
  -4,614
  -5,562
  -6,619
  -7,783
  -9,054
  -10,430
  -11,909
  -13,488
  -15,165
  -16,938
  -18,805
  -20,765
  -22,816
  -24,958
  -27,192
  -29,519
  -31,939
  -34,456
  -37,072
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
Funds from operations, $m
  -162
  -251
  -376
  -546
  -770
  -1,059
  -1,422
  -1,867
  -2,403
  -3,036
  -3,770
  -4,610
  -5,557
  -6,612
  -7,776
  -9,046
  -10,420
  -11,898
  -13,475
  -15,151
  -16,922
  -18,788
  -20,745
  -22,794
  -24,935
  -27,167
  -29,491
  -31,910
  -34,424
  -37,038
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -24
  -30
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -167
  -174
Cash from operations, $m
  -158
  -245
  -367
  -534
  -755
  -1,040
  -1,398
  -1,838
  -2,368
  -2,994
  -3,721
  -4,554
  -5,494
  -6,542
  -7,698
  -8,961
  -10,329
  -11,800
  -13,371
  -15,040
  -16,805
  -18,664
  -20,615
  -22,658
  -24,793
  -27,018
  -29,337
  -31,749
  -34,257
  -36,864
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
Free cash flow, $m
  -160
  -248
  -371
  -539
  -762
  -1,049
  -1,409
  -1,851
  -2,384
  -3,014
  -3,745
  -4,581
  -5,525
  -6,577
  -7,737
  -9,004
  -10,376
  -11,851
  -13,426
  -15,099
  -16,868
  -18,732
  -20,687
  -22,735
  -24,874
  -27,104
  -29,427
  -31,844
  -34,357
  -36,969
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  10
  14
  19
  25
  32
  40
  49
  59
  70
  81
  92
  104
  116
  128
  140
  151
  163
  174
  184
  195
  205
  215
  225
  235
  245
  256
  266
  277
  287
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  168
  259
  387
  561
  790
  1,084
  1,454
  1,906
  2,450
  3,091
  3,834
  4,683
  5,640
  6,705
  7,879
  9,158
  10,543
  12,030
  13,618
  15,303
  17,084
  18,959
  20,926
  22,984
  25,134
  27,376
  29,710
  32,138
  34,663
  37,287
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  175
  269
  401
  580
  815
  1,116
  1,494
  1,955
  2,509
  3,161
  3,915
  4,775
  5,744
  6,821
  8,007
  9,298
  10,694
  12,193
  13,792
  15,487
  17,279
  19,164
  21,141
  23,209
  25,369
  27,621
  29,966
  32,404
  34,940
  37,574
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  21
  29
  40
  53
  68
  85
  104
  125
  147
  170
  195
  220
  245
  270
  294
  319
  342
  366
  388
  410
  432
  454
  475
  496
  517
  539
  560
  583
  606
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -168
  -259
  -387
  -561
  -790
  -1,084
  -1,454
  -1,906
  -2,450
  -3,091
  -3,834
  -4,683
  -5,640
  -6,705
  -7,879
  -9,158
  -10,543
  -12,030
  -13,618
  -15,303
  -17,084
  -18,959
  -20,926
  -22,984
  -25,134
  -27,376
  -29,710
  -32,138
  -34,663
  -37,287
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -110
  -238
  -357
  -521
  -737
  -1,017
  -1,369
  -1,802
  -2,325
  -2,944
  -3,664
  -4,489
  -5,421
  -6,461
  -7,609
  -8,864
  -10,225
  -11,688
  -13,252
  -14,915
  -16,674
  -18,526
  -20,472
  -22,509
  -24,638
  -26,859
  -29,171
  -31,578
  -34,080
  -36,682
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -106
  -218
  -311
  -429
  -571
  -738
  -925
  -1,127
  -1,336
  -1,543
  -1,740
  -1,916
  -2,061
  -2,169
  -2,234
  -2,253
  -2,225
  -2,152
  -2,040
  -1,895
  -1,725
  -1,537
  -1,342
  -1,146
  -958
  -784
  -626
  -489
  -372
  -276
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  18.3
  3.5
  0.7
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Redhill Biopharma Ltd, is an Israel-based specialty biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on the development and commercialization of late clinical-stage, proprietary, orally-administered, small molecule drugs for the treatment of gastrointestinal and inflammatory diseases and cancer. It offers the following gastrointestinal products in the United States: Donnatal, a prescription oral adjunctive drug used in the treatment of Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) and acute enterocolitis, as well as EnteraGam, a medical food intended for the dietary management, under medical supervision, of chronic diarrhea and loose stools. Its clinical-stage pipeline includes: TALICIA (RHB-105), an oral combination therapy for the treatment of Helicobacter pylori infection; RHB-104, an oral combination therapy for the treatment of Crohn's disease; BEKINDA (RHB-102), a once-daily oral pill formulation of ondansetron; RHB-106; YELIVA (ABC294640); MESUPRON, and RIZAPORT (RHB-103).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Redhill Biopharma Ltd. (RDHL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

RDHL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RDHL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Redhill Biopharma Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Redhill Biopharma Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RDHL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RDHL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Redhill Biopharma Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Redhill Biopharma Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RDHL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 1375%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RDHL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Redhill Biopharma Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Redhill Biopharma Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RDHL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RDHL are equal to 35.6%.

Life of production assets of 61.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Redhill Biopharma Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RDHL is equal to -84.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $51.186 million for Redhill Biopharma Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.368 million for Redhill Biopharma Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Redhill Biopharma Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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