Intrinsic value of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR - RDY

Previous Close

$34.49

  Intrinsic Value

$63.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+84%

Previous close

$34.49

 
Intrinsic value

$63.52

 
Up/down potential

+84%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of RDY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,225
  2,277
  2,335
  2,401
  2,473
  2,553
  2,640
  2,734
  2,836
  2,945
  3,061
  3,185
  3,318
  3,458
  3,607
  3,765
  3,933
  4,110
  4,297
  4,494
  4,702
  4,922
  5,154
  5,398
  5,655
  5,925
  6,210
  6,510
  6,825
  7,157
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,010
  2,055
  2,106
  2,163
  2,226
  2,295
  2,371
  2,453
  2,541
  2,636
  2,662
  2,771
  2,886
  3,008
  3,138
  3,275
  3,421
  3,575
  3,737
  3,909
  4,090
  4,281
  4,483
  4,695
  4,918
  5,154
  5,401
  5,662
  5,936
  6,225
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,010
  2,055
  2,106
  2,163
  2,226
  2,295
  2,371
  2,453
  2,541
  2,636
  2,662
  2,771
  2,886
  3,008
  3,138
  3,275
  3,421
  3,575
  3,737
  3,909
  4,090
  4,281
  4,483
  4,695
  4,918
  5,154
  5,401
  5,662
  5,936
  6,225
Operating income, $m
  215
  222
  229
  238
  247
  258
  269
  281
  295
  309
  399
  415
  432
  450
  470
  490
  512
  535
  560
  585
  612
  641
  671
  703
  736
  772
  809
  848
  889
  932
EBITDA, $m
  431
  441
  452
  465
  479
  494
  511
  529
  549
  570
  593
  617
  642
  670
  699
  729
  762
  796
  832
  870
  911
  953
  998
  1,045
  1,095
  1,147
  1,202
  1,260
  1,322
  1,386
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  42
  44
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  122
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  194
  205
  217
Earnings before tax, $m
  173
  178
  184
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  328
  340
  352
  366
  380
  395
  411
  427
  445
  464
  483
  504
  526
  549
  573
  599
  626
  654
  684
  715
Tax expense, $m
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
Net income, $m
  126
  130
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  177
  239
  248
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  325
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  437
  457
  478
  499
  522

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,532
  3,614
  3,706
  3,811
  3,926
  4,053
  4,191
  4,340
  4,501
  4,674
  4,859
  5,056
  5,266
  5,489
  5,726
  5,977
  6,243
  6,523
  6,820
  7,134
  7,464
  7,813
  8,181
  8,568
  8,976
  9,405
  9,857
  10,333
  10,833
  11,360
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,532
  3,614
  3,706
  3,811
  3,926
  4,053
  4,191
  4,340
  4,501
  4,674
  4,859
  5,056
  5,266
  5,489
  5,726
  5,977
  6,243
  6,523
  6,820
  7,134
  7,464
  7,813
  8,181
  8,568
  8,976
  9,405
  9,857
  10,333
  10,833
  11,360
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
Average production assets, $m
  1,284
  1,314
  1,347
  1,385
  1,427
  1,473
  1,523
  1,578
  1,636
  1,699
  1,766
  1,838
  1,914
  1,995
  2,081
  2,173
  2,269
  2,371
  2,479
  2,593
  2,713
  2,840
  2,974
  3,114
  3,263
  3,419
  3,583
  3,756
  3,938
  4,129
Working capital, $m
  699
  715
  733
  754
  777
  802
  829
  859
  890
  925
  961
  1,000
  1,042
  1,086
  1,133
  1,182
  1,235
  1,290
  1,349
  1,411
  1,477
  1,546
  1,618
  1,695
  1,776
  1,861
  1,950
  2,044
  2,143
  2,247
Total debt, $m
  807
  842
  883
  929
  980
  1,035
  1,096
  1,161
  1,232
  1,308
  1,389
  1,476
  1,568
  1,666
  1,770
  1,880
  1,997
  2,120
  2,250
  2,388
  2,533
  2,686
  2,847
  3,017
  3,196
  3,385
  3,583
  3,792
  4,012
  4,243
Total liabilities, $m
  1,551
  1,586
  1,627
  1,673
  1,724
  1,779
  1,840
  1,905
  1,976
  2,052
  2,133
  2,220
  2,312
  2,410
  2,514
  2,624
  2,740
  2,864
  2,994
  3,132
  3,277
  3,430
  3,591
  3,761
  3,940
  4,129
  4,327
  4,536
  4,756
  4,987
Total equity, $m
  1,982
  2,027
  2,079
  2,138
  2,203
  2,274
  2,351
  2,435
  2,525
  2,622
  2,726
  2,836
  2,954
  3,079
  3,212
  3,353
  3,502
  3,660
  3,826
  4,002
  4,187
  4,383
  4,589
  4,807
  5,035
  5,276
  5,530
  5,797
  6,077
  6,373
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,533
  3,613
  3,706
  3,811
  3,927
  4,053
  4,191
  4,340
  4,501
  4,674
  4,859
  5,056
  5,266
  5,489
  5,726
  5,977
  6,242
  6,524
  6,820
  7,134
  7,464
  7,813
  8,180
  8,568
  8,975
  9,405
  9,857
  10,333
  10,833
  11,360
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  126
  130
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  177
  239
  248
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  325
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  437
  457
  478
  499
  522
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  216
  219
  223
  227
  232
  237
  242
  248
  254
  261
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  239
  249
  261
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  342
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
Funds from operations, $m
  342
  349
  357
  366
  376
  386
  398
  410
  424
  438
  434
  450
  468
  486
  506
  527
  549
  573
  597
  623
  651
  680
  711
  743
  777
  813
  851
  890
  932
  976
Change in working capital, $m
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
Cash from operations, $m
  328
  333
  339
  345
  353
  361
  370
  381
  392
  404
  397
  411
  426
  442
  459
  477
  497
  517
  539
  562
  586
  611
  638
  667
  696
  728
  761
  796
  833
  872
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -138
  -141
  -144
  -148
  -152
  -157
  -162
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -261
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -342
  -359
  -376
  -394
  -413
  -433
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -163
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -336
  -351
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -490
  -515
  -540
  -567
  -595
  -624
Free cash flow, $m
  165
  162
  161
  159
  158
  158
  158
  159
  160
  161
  143
  145
  148
  151
  154
  157
  161
  166
  170
  175
  181
  186
  192
  199
  206
  213
  221
  230
  238
  248
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  28
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  123
  130
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  198
  209
  220
  231
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  28
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  123
  130
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  198
  209
  220
  231
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  192
  198
  201
  205
  209
  214
  219
  225
  231
  237
  224
  232
  240
  249
  258
  268
  278
  289
  300
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  438
  458
  479
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -39
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -71
  -77
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -267
  -281
  -295
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  153
  153
  149
  146
  144
  143
  142
  141
  140
  140
  121
  121
  122
  123
  125
  127
  129
  131
  134
  137
  140
  144
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  177
  184
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  147
  140
  130
  121
  112
  104
  96
  88
  81
  74
  57
  52
  46
  41
  37
  32
  28
  24
  21
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited is a pharmaceutical company that is engaged in providing medicines. The Company operates in three segments: Global Generics, Pharmaceutical Services and Active Ingredients (PSAI), and Proprietary Products. The Global Generics segment includes manufacturing and marketing prescription and over-the-counter finished pharmaceutical products ready for consumption by the patient, marketed under a brand name (branded formulations) or as generic finished dosages with therapeutic equivalence to branded formulations (generics). PSAI segment includes the Company's business of manufacturing and marketing active pharmaceutical ingredients and intermediates (API) or bulk drugs. Proprietary Products segment focuses on the research, development and manufacture of differentiated formulations and new chemical entities. These products fall within the dermatology and neurology therapeutic areas, and are marketed and sold through its subsidiary, Promius Pharma, LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR (RDY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.8
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 41.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 4.4%
Total Debt to Equity 39.6%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Return On Equity 9.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.7%
EBITDA Margin 19.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Operating Margin 9.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Net Profit Margin 8.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 17.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
Payout Ratio 28.3%

RDY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RDY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2181.68970814 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RDY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RDY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RDY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RDY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RDY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RDY are equal to 57.7%.

Life of production assets of 9.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RDY is equal to 31.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1942.5499232 million for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.823 million for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Doctor Reddy's: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Oct-26-18 09:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Dr. Reddys Q2 & H1 FY19 Financial Results   [09:22AM  Business Wire]
▶ Dr. Reddy's to Release Q2 FY19 Results on October 26, 2018   [Oct-03-18 09:42AM  Business Wire]
▶ Doctor Reddy's: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ Dr. Reddys Q1 FY19 Financial Results   [08:56AM  Business Wire]
▶ Dr.Reddys Laboratories (RDY) Dives Following Court Order   [Jul-16-18 03:15PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Dr. Reddy's to Release Q1 FY19 Results on July 26, 2018   [Jul-05-18 09:38AM  Business Wire]
▶ Company News For Jun 18, 2018   [Jun-18-18 10:09AM  Zacks]
▶ Dr. Reddys Q4 and FY18 Financial Results   [May-22-18 09:12AM  Business Wire]
▶ Doctor Reddy's: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Celgene Rises On Potential It Could Settle Over Generic Revlimid   [Mar-26-18 04:17PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Doctor Reddy's posts 3Q profit   [06:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Dr. Reddys Q3 and 9M FY18 Financial Results   [05:51AM  Business Wire]
▶ Dr. Reddy's to release Q3 FY18 results on January 25, 2018   [Jan-16-18 03:57AM  Business Wire]
▶ Top 10 Generic Pharmaceutical Companies In 2017   [Dec-13-17 11:37AM  Insider Monkey]

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