Intrinsic value of Everest Re Group - RE

Previous Close

$224.82

  Intrinsic Value

$26.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$224.82

 
Intrinsic value

$26.48

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as RE.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 9.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
Revenue, $m
  7,533
  8,520
  9,567
  10,673
  11,837
  13,058
  14,335
  15,669
  17,060
  18,508
  20,014
  21,580
  23,207
  24,898
  26,656
  28,483
  30,382
  32,357
  34,412
  36,551
  38,778
  41,099
  43,518
  46,041
  48,674
  51,422
  54,292
  57,291
  60,426
  63,703
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,054
  6,844
  7,682
  8,568
  9,500
  10,477
  11,500
  12,568
  13,682
  14,841
  16,025
  17,279
  18,582
  19,936
  21,343
  22,806
  24,327
  25,908
  27,554
  29,266
  31,050
  32,908
  34,845
  36,865
  38,973
  41,174
  43,472
  45,873
  48,383
  51,007
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,054
  6,844
  7,682
  8,568
  9,500
  10,477
  11,500
  12,568
  13,682
  14,841
  16,025
  17,279
  18,582
  19,936
  21,343
  22,806
  24,327
  25,908
  27,554
  29,266
  31,050
  32,908
  34,845
  36,865
  38,973
  41,174
  43,472
  45,873
  48,383
  51,007
Operating income, $m
  1,480
  1,676
  1,885
  2,105
  2,337
  2,581
  2,835
  3,101
  3,378
  3,667
  3,989
  4,301
  4,625
  4,962
  5,313
  5,677
  6,055
  6,449
  6,858
  7,285
  7,728
  8,191
  8,673
  9,176
  9,701
  10,248
  10,820
  11,418
  12,043
  12,696
EBITDA, $m
  4,084
  4,620
  5,187
  5,787
  6,418
  7,080
  7,773
  8,496
  9,250
  10,035
  10,851
  11,700
  12,583
  13,500
  14,453
  15,443
  16,473
  17,544
  18,658
  19,818
  21,026
  22,284
  23,596
  24,964
  26,391
  27,881
  29,437
  31,063
  32,763
  34,540
Interest expense (income), $m
  36
  980
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
  972
Earnings before tax, $m
  499
  705
  913
  1,134
  1,366
  1,609
  1,864
  2,130
  2,407
  2,695
  3,017
  3,329
  3,654
  3,991
  4,341
  4,705
  5,084
  5,477
  5,887
  6,313
  6,757
  7,219
  7,702
  8,204
  8,729
  9,277
  9,849
  10,447
  11,071
  11,724
Tax expense, $m
  135
  190
  247
  306
  369
  434
  503
  575
  650
  728
  815
  899
  986
  1,077
  1,172
  1,270
  1,373
  1,479
  1,589
  1,705
  1,824
  1,949
  2,079
  2,215
  2,357
  2,505
  2,659
  2,821
  2,989
  3,166
Net income, $m
  365
  514
  667
  828
  997
  1,175
  1,360
  1,555
  1,757
  1,967
  2,203
  2,430
  2,667
  2,913
  3,169
  3,435
  3,711
  3,998
  4,297
  4,609
  4,933
  5,270
  5,622
  5,989
  6,372
  6,772
  7,190
  7,626
  8,082
  8,559

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  25,831
  29,215
  32,805
  36,598
  40,589
  44,776
  49,156
  53,730
  58,498
  63,462
  68,627
  73,997
  79,577
  85,377
  91,403
  97,667
  104,180
  110,952
  117,999
  125,333
  132,971
  140,929
  149,225
  157,876
  166,903
  176,327
  186,169
  196,451
  207,199
  218,438
Working capital, $m
  -17,356
  -19,630
  -22,043
  -24,591
  -27,272
  -30,085
  -33,029
  -36,102
  -39,306
  -42,641
  -46,112
  -49,720
  -53,469
  -57,366
  -61,415
  -65,624
  -70,000
  -74,551
  -79,285
  -84,213
  -89,345
  -94,693
  -100,266
  -106,080
  -112,145
  -118,477
  -125,090
  -131,999
  -139,221
  -146,772
Total debt, $m
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
  17,991
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  365
  514
  667
  828
  997
  1,175
  1,360
  1,555
  1,757
  1,967
  2,203
  2,430
  2,667
  2,913
  3,169
  3,435
  3,711
  3,998
  4,297
  4,609
  4,933
  5,270
  5,622
  5,989
  6,372
  6,772
  7,190
  7,626
  8,082
  8,559
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2,605
  2,943
  3,302
  3,682
  4,081
  4,499
  4,937
  5,395
  5,872
  6,368
  6,863
  7,400
  7,958
  8,538
  9,140
  9,767
  10,418
  11,095
  11,800
  12,533
  13,297
  14,093
  14,922
  15,788
  16,690
  17,633
  18,617
  19,645
  20,720
  21,844
Funds from operations, $m
  2,969
  3,458
  3,969
  4,509
  5,078
  5,674
  6,298
  6,949
  7,628
  8,336
  9,065
  9,830
  10,625
  11,451
  12,309
  13,201
  14,129
  15,094
  16,097
  17,142
  18,230
  19,363
  20,545
  21,777
  23,063
  24,405
  25,807
  27,271
  28,802
  30,403
Change in working capital, $m
  -2,131
  -2,274
  -2,413
  -2,548
  -2,682
  -2,813
  -2,943
  -3,073
  -3,204
  -3,336
  -3,470
  -3,608
  -3,750
  -3,897
  -4,049
  -4,209
  -4,376
  -4,551
  -4,735
  -4,928
  -5,132
  -5,347
  -5,574
  -5,813
  -6,066
  -6,332
  -6,613
  -6,909
  -7,222
  -7,551
Cash from operations, $m
  5,101
  5,731
  6,382
  7,058
  7,759
  8,487
  9,241
  10,023
  10,832
  11,671
  12,535
  13,438
  14,375
  15,348
  16,359
  17,410
  18,505
  19,644
  20,832
  22,070
  23,362
  24,710
  26,119
  27,590
  29,128
  30,737
  32,419
  34,180
  36,024
  37,954
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2,266
  -2,583
  -2,921
  -3,281
  -3,660
  -4,059
  -4,478
  -4,916
  -5,373
  -5,850
  -6,346
  -6,863
  -7,400
  -7,958
  -8,538
  -9,140
  -9,767
  -10,418
  -11,095
  -11,800
  -12,533
  -13,297
  -14,093
  -14,922
  -15,788
  -16,690
  -17,633
  -18,617
  -19,645
  -20,720
New CAPEX, $m
  -3,170
  -3,384
  -3,591
  -3,793
  -3,991
  -4,187
  -4,380
  -4,574
  -4,768
  -4,965
  -5,165
  -5,370
  -5,581
  -5,799
  -6,027
  -6,264
  -6,512
  -6,773
  -7,046
  -7,335
  -7,638
  -7,958
  -8,296
  -8,652
  -9,027
  -9,424
  -9,842
  -10,283
  -10,748
  -11,238
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5,436
  -5,967
  -6,512
  -7,074
  -7,651
  -8,246
  -8,858
  -9,490
  -10,141
  -10,815
  -11,511
  -12,233
  -12,981
  -13,757
  -14,565
  -15,404
  -16,279
  -17,191
  -18,141
  -19,135
  -20,171
  -21,255
  -22,389
  -23,574
  -24,815
  -26,114
  -27,475
  -28,900
  -30,393
  -31,958
Free cash flow, $m
  -335
  -236
  -130
  -16
  109
  242
  383
  533
  691
  857
  1,025
  1,206
  1,394
  1,590
  1,794
  2,006
  2,226
  2,454
  2,690
  2,936
  3,190
  3,455
  3,730
  4,016
  4,313
  4,623
  4,945
  5,281
  5,631
  5,996
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -161
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -161
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -496
  -236
  -130
  -16
  109
  242
  383
  533
  691
  857
  1,025
  1,206
  1,394
  1,590
  1,794
  2,006
  2,226
  2,454
  2,690
  2,936
  3,190
  3,455
  3,730
  4,016
  4,313
  4,623
  4,945
  5,281
  5,631
  5,996
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -161
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  161
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  53
  59
  65
  72
  78
  85
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  152
  162
  172
  183
  194
  205
  218
  230
  243
  257
  271
  286
  302
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -161
  0
  0
  0
  109
  242
  383
  533
  691
  857
  1,025
  1,206
  1,394
  1,590
  1,794
  2,006
  2,226
  2,454
  2,690
  2,936
  3,190
  3,455
  3,730
  4,016
  4,313
  4,623
  4,945
  5,281
  5,631
  5,996
Discount rate, %
  13.30
  13.97
  14.66
  15.40
  16.17
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.75
  23.88
  25.08
  26.33
  27.65
  29.03
  30.48
  32.01
  33.61
  35.29
  37.05
  38.91
  40.85
  42.89
  45.04
  47.29
  49.65
  52.14
  54.74
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -142
  0
  0
  0
  51
  94
  122
  135
  138
  131
  119
  103
  86
  69
  54
  40
  29
  20
  14
  9
  6
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Everest Re Group, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the underwriting of reinsurance and insurance in the United States, Bermuda and international markets. The Company operates in segments: U.S. Reinsurance, International, Bermuda and Insurance segment. The Company underwrites reinsurance both through brokers and directly with ceding companies. The Company underwrites insurance principally through general agent relationships, brokers and surplus lines brokers. The Company offers treaty and facultative reinsurance, and admitted and non-admitted insurance. Its products include the range of property and casualty reinsurance, and insurance coverage's, including marine, aviation, surety, errors and omissions liability (E&O), directors' and officers' liability (D&O), medical malpractice, other specialty lines, accident and health (A&H) and workers' compensation. Its subsidiaries include Everest Reinsurance (Bermuda), Ltd. (Bermuda Re) and Everest International Reinsurance, Ltd.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Everest Re Group (RE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.2
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 7.8%
Total Debt to Equity 7.8%
Interest Coverage 32
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 11.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Return On Equity 12.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 19.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Operating Margin 19.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.3%
Net Profit Margin 17.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Effective Tax Rate 9.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Payout Ratio 19.6%

RE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6608 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Everest Re Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Everest Re Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.3%, whose default value for RE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Everest Re Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Everest Re Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Everest Re Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Everest Re Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RE stock is equal to 0.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RE are equal to 342.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Everest Re Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RE is equal to -230.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Everest Re Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41 million for Everest Re Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Everest Re Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $9.2 billion.

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