Intrinsic value of Renewable Energy Group - REGI

Previous Close

$25.71

  Intrinsic Value

$3.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$25.71

 
Intrinsic value

$3.51

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of REGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  2,334
  2,523
  2,718
  2,921
  3,133
  3,352
  3,580
  3,818
  4,064
  4,321
  4,588
  4,867
  5,157
  5,459
  5,775
  6,104
  6,448
  6,807
  7,182
  7,574
  7,984
  8,413
  8,861
  9,331
  9,823
  10,338
  10,878
  11,443
  12,036
  12,657
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,283
  2,466
  2,657
  2,856
  3,062
  3,276
  3,499
  3,730
  3,971
  4,222
  4,478
  4,750
  5,033
  5,328
  5,636
  5,957
  6,293
  6,643
  7,009
  7,392
  7,792
  8,211
  8,649
  9,107
  9,587
  10,090
  10,617
  11,168
  11,747
  12,353
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,283
  2,466
  2,657
  2,856
  3,062
  3,276
  3,499
  3,730
  3,971
  4,222
  4,478
  4,750
  5,033
  5,328
  5,636
  5,957
  6,293
  6,643
  7,009
  7,392
  7,792
  8,211
  8,649
  9,107
  9,587
  10,090
  10,617
  11,168
  11,747
  12,353
Operating income, $m
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
  289
  304
EBITDA, $m
  92
  99
  107
  115
  123
  132
  141
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
  349
  367
  387
  407
  428
  451
  474
  498
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
Tax expense, $m
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Net income, $m
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,090
  1,178
  1,269
  1,364
  1,463
  1,565
  1,672
  1,782
  1,897
  2,017
  2,142
  2,272
  2,408
  2,549
  2,696
  2,850
  3,010
  3,178
  3,353
  3,536
  3,727
  3,927
  4,137
  4,356
  4,586
  4,826
  5,078
  5,342
  5,619
  5,909
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,090
  1,178
  1,269
  1,364
  1,463
  1,565
  1,672
  1,782
  1,897
  2,017
  2,142
  2,272
  2,408
  2,549
  2,696
  2,850
  3,010
  3,178
  3,353
  3,536
  3,727
  3,927
  4,137
  4,356
  4,586
  4,826
  5,078
  5,342
  5,619
  5,909
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.141
  2.142
  2.142
  2.141
  2.141
  2.142
  2.141
  2.143
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
  2.142
Average production assets, $m
  668
  721
  777
  836
  896
  959
  1,024
  1,092
  1,162
  1,236
  1,312
  1,392
  1,475
  1,561
  1,652
  1,746
  1,844
  1,947
  2,054
  2,166
  2,283
  2,406
  2,534
  2,669
  2,809
  2,957
  3,111
  3,273
  3,442
  3,620
Working capital, $m
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  238
  254
  271
  289
  307
  326
  346
  366
  388
  410
  433
  458
  483
  510
  538
  567
  597
  629
  663
  697
  734
  772
  812
  855
  899
Total debt, $m
  325
  363
  403
  444
  487
  532
  578
  627
  677
  729
  783
  840
  899
  961
  1,025
  1,092
  1,162
  1,235
  1,311
  1,391
  1,475
  1,562
  1,653
  1,749
  1,849
  1,954
  2,064
  2,179
  2,299
  2,426
Total liabilities, $m
  475
  513
  553
  595
  638
  682
  729
  777
  827
  880
  934
  991
  1,050
  1,111
  1,175
  1,242
  1,312
  1,385
  1,462
  1,542
  1,625
  1,712
  1,804
  1,899
  1,999
  2,104
  2,214
  2,329
  2,450
  2,576
Total equity, $m
  615
  664
  716
  769
  825
  883
  943
  1,005
  1,070
  1,138
  1,208
  1,281
  1,358
  1,437
  1,521
  1,607
  1,698
  1,792
  1,891
  1,994
  2,102
  2,215
  2,333
  2,457
  2,586
  2,722
  2,864
  3,013
  3,169
  3,333
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,090
  1,177
  1,269
  1,364
  1,463
  1,565
  1,672
  1,782
  1,897
  2,018
  2,142
  2,272
  2,408
  2,548
  2,696
  2,849
  3,010
  3,177
  3,353
  3,536
  3,727
  3,927
  4,137
  4,356
  4,585
  4,826
  5,078
  5,342
  5,619
  5,909
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  195
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  302
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
Cash from operations, $m
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  92
  96
  101
  107
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  165
  173
  182
  192
  201
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
New CAPEX, $m
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -178
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -135
  -142
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -246
  -257
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -329
  -345
  -363
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  24
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  61
  63
  65
  66
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  81
  80
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  116
  120
  126
  131
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
Discount rate, %
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -19
  -19
  -18
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.6
  95.3
  93.3
  91.3
  89.6
  87.9
  86.3
  84.9
  83.5
  82.2
  81.1
  80.0
  79.0
  78.1
  77.1
  76.2
  75.3
  74.5
  73.6
  72.8
  72.0
  71.3
  70.5
  69.8
  69.0
  68.3
  67.6
  66.9
  66.2
  65.5

Renewable Energy Group, Inc. is focused on providing cleaner, lower carbon intensity products and services. The Company is a producer of biomass-based diesel in North America. Its segments include Biomass-based diesel, Services, Renewable Chemicals and Corporate and other activities. It is involved in various activities related to biomass-based diesel production, from acquiring feedstock, managing construction and operating biomass-based diesel production facilities to marketing, selling and distributing biomass-based diesel and its co-products. As of December 31, 2016, it owned and operated a network of 14 biorefineries. As of December 31, 2016, 12 biorefineries were located in the United States and two in Germany, and 13 of which produce biodiesel or renewable hydrocarbon diesel and had an aggregate nameplate production capacity of 502 million gallons per year (mmgy). As of December 31, 2016, it also operated one microbial fermentation facility and one feedstock processing facility.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Renewable Energy Group (REGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.5
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 70.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 47.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 39.7%
Total Debt to Equity 51.2%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Return On Equity 7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
EBITDA Margin 4.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Operating Margin 2.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 8.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

REGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the REGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2153.537 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Renewable Energy Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Renewable Energy Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our REGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for REGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Renewable Energy Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Renewable Energy Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of REGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for REGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.8% for Renewable Energy Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Renewable Energy Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the REGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for REGI are equal to 28.6%.

Life of production assets of 18.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Renewable Energy Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for REGI is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $567.582 million for Renewable Energy Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.316 million for Renewable Energy Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Renewable Energy Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Renewable Energy Group: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-06-18 05:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Renewable Energy Group to Present at Upcoming Conferences   [Jul-26-18 03:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
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▶ Why Renewable Energy Group Inc. Stock Is Rising Today   [May-14-18 11:27AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Renewable Energy Group Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600   [May-11-18 05:40PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Renewable Energy Group Launches REG Ultra Clean Diesel   [May-02-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Top Small-Cap Stocks to Buy in December   [Dec-16-17 08:36AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Renewable Energy Group reports 3Q loss   [Nov-07-17 05:31PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Renewable Energy Group reports 2Q loss   [Aug-05-17 01:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Renewable Energy Group reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 05:08AM  Associated Press]

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