Intrinsic value of Altisource Residential - RESI

Previous Close

$10.86

  Intrinsic Value

$14.85

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+37%

Previous close

$10.86

 
Intrinsic value

$14.85

 
Up/down potential

+37%

 
Rating

buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as RESI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RESI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Altisource Residential (RESI) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -77.02
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  57
  91
  141
  211
  306
  431
  593
  796
  1,045
  1,345
  1,699
  2,109
  2,579
  3,109
  3,699
  4,349
  5,059
  5,827
  6,653
  7,535
  8,472
  9,462
  10,504
  11,599
  12,744
  13,940
  15,188
  16,487
  17,838
  19,244
  20,704
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  35
  52
  75
  106
  146
  196
  257
  331
  418
  519
  634
  765
  910
  1,070
  1,244
  1,434
  1,637
  1,854
  2,084
  2,328
  2,584
  2,853
  3,135
  3,429
  3,736
  4,056
  4,388
  4,734
  5,093
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  250
  256
  263
  269
  276
  283
  290
  297
  305
  312
  320
  328
  336
  345
  353
  362
  371
  381
  390
  400
  410
  420
  431
  441
  452
  464
  475
  487
  499
  512
Total operating expenses, $m
  284
  272
  291
  315
  344
  382
  429
  486
  554
  636
  730
  839
  962
  1,101
  1,255
  1,423
  1,606
  1,805
  2,018
  2,244
  2,484
  2,738
  3,004
  3,284
  3,576
  3,881
  4,200
  4,531
  4,875
  5,233
  5,605
Operating income, $m
  -227
  -181
  -150
  -104
  -39
  49
  164
  310
  491
  709
  969
  1,270
  1,616
  2,008
  2,444
  2,926
  3,452
  4,023
  4,636
  5,291
  5,988
  6,724
  7,500
  8,315
  9,168
  10,059
  10,988
  11,956
  12,963
  14,010
  15,099
EBITDA, $m
  -200
  -181
  -150
  -104
  -39
  49
  164
  310
  491
  709
  969
  1,270
  1,616
  2,008
  2,444
  2,926
  3,452
  4,023
  4,636
  5,291
  5,988
  6,724
  7,500
  8,315
  9,168
  10,059
  10,988
  11,956
  12,963
  14,010
  15,099
Interest expense (income), $m
  40
  44
  72
  113
  169
  247
  349
  480
  645
  848
  1,092
  1,379
  1,713
  2,095
  2,526
  3,005
  3,534
  4,111
  4,736
  5,408
  6,125
  6,886
  7,691
  8,539
  9,429
  10,360
  11,332
  12,347
  13,403
  14,502
  15,645
Earnings before tax, $m
  -228
  -225
  -222
  -216
  -208
  -197
  -185
  -170
  -154
  -138
  -123
  -109
  -97
  -87
  -82
  -80
  -82
  -89
  -100
  -116
  -137
  -162
  -191
  -224
  -261
  -301
  -345
  -391
  -440
  -492
  -545
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -228
  -225
  -222
  -216
  -208
  -197
  -185
  -170
  -154
  -138
  -123
  -109
  -97
  -87
  -82
  -80
  -82
  -89
  -100
  -116
  -137
  -162
  -191
  -224
  -261
  -301
  -345
  -391
  -440
  -492
  -545

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  106
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,285
  3,508
  5,419
  8,105
  11,759
  16,591
  22,809
  30,616
  40,201
  51,729
  65,337
  81,134
  99,194
  119,563
  142,256
  167,268
  194,572
  224,131
  255,896
  289,815
  325,839
  363,918
  404,015
  446,098
  490,149
  536,160
  584,138
  634,103
  686,088
  740,141
  796,321
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,179
  3,508
  5,419
  8,105
  11,759
  16,591
  22,809
  30,616
  40,201
  51,729
  65,337
  81,134
  99,194
  119,563
  142,256
  167,268
  194,572
  224,131
  255,896
  289,815
  325,839
  363,918
  404,015
  446,098
  490,149
  536,160
  584,138
  634,103
  686,088
  740,141
  796,321
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
  0.026
Average production assets, $m
  -18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  46
  70
  105
  153
  216
  297
  398
  523
  672
  849
  1,055
  1,290
  1,554
  1,849
  2,174
  2,529
  2,914
  3,327
  3,768
  4,236
  4,731
  5,252
  5,799
  6,372
  6,970
  7,594
  8,243
  8,919
  9,622
  10,352
Total debt, $m
  1,365
  2,062
  3,216
  4,838
  7,046
  9,964
  13,719
  18,435
  24,224
  31,187
  39,407
  48,948
  59,856
  72,159
  85,866
  100,973
  117,465
  135,318
  154,504
  174,992
  196,750
  219,750
  243,968
  269,386
  295,993
  323,784
  352,762
  382,941
  414,340
  446,988
  480,921
Total liabilities, $m
  1,422
  2,119
  3,273
  4,895
  7,103
  10,021
  13,776
  18,492
  24,281
  31,244
  39,464
  49,005
  59,913
  72,216
  85,923
  101,030
  117,522
  135,375
  154,561
  175,049
  196,807
  219,807
  244,025
  269,443
  296,050
  323,841
  352,819
  382,998
  414,397
  447,045
  480,978
Total equity, $m
  863
  1,389
  2,146
  3,209
  4,657
  6,570
  9,032
  12,124
  15,919
  20,485
  25,874
  32,129
  39,281
  47,347
  56,333
  66,238
  77,051
  88,756
  101,335
  114,767
  129,032
  144,112
  159,990
  176,655
  194,099
  212,319
  231,319
  251,105
  271,691
  293,096
  315,343
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,285
  3,508
  5,419
  8,104
  11,760
  16,591
  22,808
  30,616
  40,200
  51,729
  65,338
  81,134
  99,194
  119,563
  142,256
  167,268
  194,573
  224,131
  255,896
  289,816
  325,839
  363,919
  404,015
  446,098
  490,149
  536,160
  584,138
  634,103
  686,088
  740,141
  796,321
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.582
  1.480
  1.500
  1.510
  1.510
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
  1.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396
  0.396

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -228
  -225
  -222
  -216
  -208
  -197
  -185
  -170
  -154
  -138
  -123
  -109
  -97
  -87
  -82
  -80
  -82
  -89
  -100
  -116
  -137
  -162
  -191
  -224
  -261
  -301
  -345
  -391
  -440
  -492
  -545
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -31
  -225
  -222
  -216
  -208
  -197
  -185
  -170
  -154
  -138
  -123
  -109
  -97
  -87
  -82
  -80
  -82
  -89
  -100
  -116
  -137
  -162
  -191
  -224
  -261
  -301
  -345
  -391
  -440
  -492
  -545
Change in working capital, $m
  82
  17
  25
  35
  48
  63
  81
  101
  125
  150
  177
  205
  235
  265
  295
  325
  355
  384
  413
  441
  468
  495
  521
  547
  573
  598
  624
  650
  676
  703
  730
Cash from operations, $m
  -113
  -243
  -247
  -251
  -256
  -260
  -265
  -272
  -279
  -288
  -300
  -314
  -332
  -352
  -377
  -405
  -437
  -473
  -513
  -557
  -605
  -657
  -712
  -771
  -834
  -899
  -968
  -1,041
  -1,116
  -1,194
  -1,276
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -300
  -18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  565
  -14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  452
  -257
  -247
  -251
  -256
  -260
  -265
  -272
  -279
  -288
  -300
  -314
  -332
  -352
  -377
  -405
  -437
  -473
  -513
  -557
  -605
  -657
  -712
  -771
  -834
  -899
  -968
  -1,041
  -1,116
  -1,194
  -1,276
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  803
  1,155
  1,622
  2,208
  2,918
  3,756
  4,716
  5,789
  6,963
  8,220
  9,541
  10,908
  12,302
  13,707
  15,107
  16,492
  17,853
  19,186
  20,487
  21,758
  23,000
  24,218
  25,418
  26,606
  27,791
  28,979
  30,179
  31,399
  32,648
  33,933
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -21
  751
  979
  1,280
  1,655
  2,111
  2,647
  3,262
  3,950
  4,704
  5,512
  6,364
  7,249
  8,153
  9,068
  9,984
  10,895
  11,794
  12,679
  13,548
  14,402
  15,241
  16,069
  16,889
  17,705
  18,522
  19,344
  20,177
  21,026
  21,896
  22,793
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -424
  1,554
  2,134
  2,902
  3,863
  5,029
  6,403
  7,978
  9,739
  11,667
  13,732
  15,905
  18,157
  20,455
  22,775
  25,091
  27,387
  29,647
  31,865
  34,035
  36,160
  38,241
  40,287
  42,307
  44,311
  46,313
  48,323
  50,356
  52,425
  54,544
  56,726
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  1,298
  1,887
  2,650
  3,607
  4,769
  6,137
  7,706
  9,460
  11,378
  13,432
  15,591
  17,825
  20,103
  22,398
  24,687
  26,950
  29,174
  31,352
  33,479
  35,555
  37,585
  39,575
  41,536
  43,478
  45,413
  47,354
  49,315
  51,309
  53,350
  55,451
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  289
  -751
  -979
  -1,280
  -1,655
  -2,111
  -2,647
  -3,262
  -3,950
  -4,704
  -5,512
  -6,364
  -7,249
  -8,153
  -9,068
  -9,984
  -10,895
  -11,794
  -12,679
  -13,548
  -14,402
  -15,241
  -16,069
  -16,889
  -17,705
  -18,522
  -19,344
  -20,177
  -21,026
  -21,896
  -22,793
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  546
  908
  1,371
  1,952
  2,658
  3,490
  4,444
  5,510
  6,674
  7,920
  9,227
  10,577
  11,950
  13,330
  14,702
  16,055
  17,381
  18,673
  19,930
  21,153
  22,343
  23,506
  24,647
  25,773
  26,891
  28,010
  29,138
  30,283
  31,454
  32,658
Discount rate, %
 
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  494
  736
  987
  1,234
  1,458
  1,641
  1,768
  1,830
  1,823
  1,751
  1,625
  1,457
  1,265
  1,063
  865
  682
  521
  385
  276
  191
  128
  83
  52
  31
  18
  10
  6
  3
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  44.6
  22.2
  12.0
  6.9
  4.2
  2.7
  1.8
  1.2
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Altisource Residential Corporation is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company focuses on acquiring, owning and managing single-family rental (SFR) properties throughout the United States. The Company conducts its activities through its subsidiary, Altisource Residential, L.P., and its subsidiaries. The Company also converts a portion of the real estate owned (REO) properties that it acquires through resolution of its mortgage loans into SFR properties. The Company has also entered into property management service agreements with two third-party property managers: Altisource Portfolio Solutions, SA (ASPS) and Main Street Renewal, LLC (MSR), to provide, among other things, leasing and lease management, operations, maintenance, repair and property management services in respect of its SFR portfolios. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 10,533 properties, consisting of 9,939 properties held for use and 594 held for sale.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Altisource Residential (RESI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.6
Price to Sales 10.2
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -77%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 150%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 118.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 158.2%
Interest Coverage -5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital -9.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Return On Equity -22.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 5.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.3%
EBITDA Margin -282.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -75.7%
Operating Margin -398.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -124.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -400%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -124.6%
Net Profit Margin -400%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -124.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -16.7%

RESI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RESI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $57 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Altisource Residential. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Altisource Residential. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RESI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.5%, whose default value for RESI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Altisource Residential, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Altisource Residential.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RESI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 24.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $244 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RESI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Altisource Residential.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Altisource Residential. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RESI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RESI are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of -0.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Altisource Residential operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RESI is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $863 million for Altisource Residential - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.359 million for Altisource Residential is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Altisource Residential at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Altisource Residential reports 3Q loss   [Nov-07-17 09:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Altisource Residential reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 05:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Altisource Residential reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 09:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ Altisource Residential reports 4Q loss   [07:57AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of RESI
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