Intrinsic value of Repligen Corporation - RGEN

Previous Close

$54.76

  Intrinsic Value

$0.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$54.76

 
Intrinsic value

$0.87

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RGEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.80
  22.82
  21.04
  19.43
  17.99
  16.69
  15.52
  14.47
  13.52
  12.67
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
Revenue, $m
  242
  297
  360
  430
  507
  592
  684
  783
  889
  1,001
  1,120
  1,246
  1,378
  1,516
  1,661
  1,811
  1,968
  2,132
  2,302
  2,478
  2,662
  2,853
  3,051
  3,257
  3,471
  3,694
  3,926
  4,168
  4,419
  4,681
Variable operating expenses, $m
  176
  205
  239
  276
  317
  363
  412
  465
  521
  582
  599
  666
  737
  811
  888
  969
  1,053
  1,140
  1,231
  1,326
  1,424
  1,526
  1,632
  1,742
  1,857
  1,976
  2,100
  2,229
  2,364
  2,504
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
Total operating expenses, $m
  194
  224
  258
  296
  337
  384
  433
  486
  543
  604
  622
  689
  761
  835
  913
  994
  1,079
  1,167
  1,258
  1,354
  1,452
  1,555
  1,662
  1,772
  1,888
  2,008
  2,132
  2,262
  2,398
  2,539
Operating income, $m
  48
  73
  102
  134
  170
  209
  251
  296
  345
  397
  498
  556
  617
  681
  747
  817
  889
  965
  1,043
  1,125
  1,210
  1,298
  1,389
  1,485
  1,584
  1,687
  1,794
  1,905
  2,022
  2,143
EBITDA, $m
  105
  133
  164
  200
  239
  281
  328
  378
  431
  488
  548
  612
  679
  749
  822
  898
  978
  1,061
  1,147
  1,236
  1,329
  1,426
  1,526
  1,631
  1,739
  1,852
  1,970
  2,092
  2,220
  2,353
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
Earnings before tax, $m
  41
  66
  93
  124
  158
  196
  236
  280
  327
  377
  476
  532
  590
  651
  716
  782
  852
  924
  1,000
  1,078
  1,160
  1,244
  1,332
  1,424
  1,519
  1,618
  1,721
  1,828
  1,940
  2,056
Tax expense, $m
  11
  18
  25
  34
  43
  53
  64
  76
  88
  102
  129
  144
  159
  176
  193
  211
  230
  250
  270
  291
  313
  336
  360
  384
  410
  437
  465
  494
  524
  555
Net income, $m
  30
  48
  68
  91
  116
  143
  173
  205
  239
  275
  348
  388
  431
  476
  522
  571
  622
  675
  730
  787
  846
  908
  972
  1,039
  1,109
  1,181
  1,256
  1,334
  1,416
  1,501

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  757
  929
  1,125
  1,343
  1,585
  1,850
  2,137
  2,446
  2,777
  3,128
  3,501
  3,893
  4,306
  4,738
  5,189
  5,660
  6,151
  6,662
  7,193
  7,745
  8,318
  8,915
  9,534
  10,178
  10,848
  11,544
  12,269
  13,024
  13,810
  14,630
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  757
  929
  1,125
  1,343
  1,585
  1,850
  2,137
  2,446
  2,777
  3,128
  3,501
  3,893
  4,306
  4,738
  5,189
  5,660
  6,151
  6,662
  7,193
  7,745
  8,318
  8,915
  9,534
  10,178
  10,848
  11,544
  12,269
  13,024
  13,810
  14,630
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
Average production assets, $m
  326
  400
  484
  578
  682
  796
  920
  1,053
  1,195
  1,346
  1,507
  1,676
  1,853
  2,039
  2,233
  2,436
  2,647
  2,867
  3,096
  3,333
  3,580
  3,837
  4,103
  4,381
  4,669
  4,969
  5,281
  5,606
  5,944
  6,297
Working capital, $m
  69
  85
  103
  123
  145
  169
  196
  224
  254
  286
  320
  356
  394
  434
  475
  518
  563
  610
  658
  709
  761
  816
  873
  932
  993
  1,057
  1,123
  1,192
  1,264
  1,339
Total debt, $m
  118
  133
  151
  172
  194
  218
  244
  273
  303
  336
  370
  406
  444
  484
  525
  569
  614
  661
  710
  760
  813
  868
  925
  984
  1,046
  1,110
  1,177
  1,246
  1,318
  1,394
Total liabilities, $m
  70
  85
  103
  124
  146
  170
  197
  225
  255
  288
  322
  358
  396
  436
  477
  521
  566
  613
  662
  713
  765
  820
  877
  936
  998
  1,062
  1,129
  1,198
  1,271
  1,346
Total equity, $m
  687
  844
  1,021
  1,220
  1,439
  1,679
  1,940
  2,221
  2,521
  2,841
  3,179
  3,535
  3,910
  4,302
  4,712
  5,140
  5,585
  6,049
  6,531
  7,032
  7,553
  8,094
  8,657
  9,242
  9,850
  10,482
  11,141
  11,826
  12,540
  13,284
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  757
  929
  1,124
  1,344
  1,585
  1,849
  2,137
  2,446
  2,776
  3,129
  3,501
  3,893
  4,306
  4,738
  5,189
  5,661
  6,151
  6,662
  7,193
  7,745
  8,318
  8,914
  9,534
  10,178
  10,848
  11,544
  12,270
  13,024
  13,811
  14,630
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.170
  0.160
  0.150
  0.140
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908
  0.908

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  30
  48
  68
  91
  116
  143
  173
  205
  239
  275
  348
  388
  431
  476
  522
  571
  622
  675
  730
  787
  846
  908
  972
  1,039
  1,109
  1,181
  1,256
  1,334
  1,416
  1,501
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  50
  56
  62
  68
  74
  81
  88
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
  176
  187
  198
  210
Funds from operations, $m
  87
  107
  130
  156
  185
  216
  249
  286
  325
  366
  398
  444
  493
  544
  597
  652
  710
  770
  833
  898
  966
  1,036
  1,109
  1,185
  1,264
  1,346
  1,432
  1,521
  1,614
  1,711
Change in working capital, $m
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  92
  112
  136
  162
  191
  223
  258
  295
  334
  364
  408
  455
  504
  555
  609
  665
  724
  784
  848
  913
  982
  1,053
  1,126
  1,203
  1,283
  1,366
  1,452
  1,542
  1,636
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -198
New CAPEX, $m
  -65
  -74
  -84
  -94
  -104
  -114
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -277
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -325
  -338
  -353
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -85
  -97
  -110
  -123
  -137
  -151
  -164
  -177
  -191
  -205
  -219
  -233
  -248
  -262
  -277
  -292
  -308
  -325
  -341
  -358
  -376
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -525
  -551
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  6
  15
  26
  39
  55
  73
  94
  117
  143
  159
  189
  222
  256
  293
  332
  373
  416
  460
  507
  555
  606
  658
  712
  769
  827
  888
  951
  1,017
  1,085
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  105
  109
  109
  108
  104
  97
  88
  76
  61
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  119
  125
  127
  128
  126
  121
  114
  104
  91
  76
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  119
  131
  142
  154
  165
  176
  188
  198
  209
  219
  193
  225
  259
  296
  335
  375
  418
  463
  509
  558
  608
  661
  715
  772
  830
  891
  955
  1,021
  1,089
  1,160
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -135
  -157
  -178
  -198
  -219
  -240
  -261
  -281
  -300
  -319
  -338
  -356
  -374
  -392
  -410
  -428
  -446
  -464
  -482
  -501
  -521
  -541
  -563
  -585
  -608
  -633
  -658
  -685
  -714
  -744
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  48
  -26
  -35
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -73
  -82
  -91
  -100
  -145
  -131
  -115
  -96
  -75
  -52
  -28
  -1
  27
  56
  87
  119
  152
  187
  222
  259
  297
  335
  375
  416
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  46
  -23
  -30
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -52
  -69
  -56
  -44
  -32
  -22
  -13
  -6
  0
  4
  7
  9
  10
  10
  10
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.3
  91.6
  88.7
  86.3
  84.5
  83.1
  82.0
  81.1
  80.6
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2
  80.2

Repligen Corporation is a bioprocessing company. The Company is focused on the development, manufacture and commercialization of products used to improve the interconnected phases of the biological drug manufacturing process. The Company's portfolio includes protein products, chromatography products, and filtration products. It provides Protein A ligands, a component of Protein A chromatography resins (media) used in the purification of virtually all monoclonal antibody (mAb)-based drugs on the market or in development. Its chromatography portfolio includes various products used in the downstream purification and quality control of biological drugs. Its OPUS pre-packed chromatography columns (PPCs) are used in the purification of clinical-stage biologics. Its filtration products include XCell Alternating Tangential Flow (ATF) Systems and Sius tangential flow filtration (TFF) cassettes. Sius TFF cassettes are used to concentrate clinical and commercial-stage biologic drugs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Repligen Corporation (RGEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 154.4
Price to Sales 17.6
Price to Book 11
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 231.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 463.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 56.2%
Total Debt to Equity 56.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.9%
EBITDA Margin 16.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Operating Margin 15.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Net Profit Margin 11.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

RGEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RGEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $194 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Repligen Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Repligen Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RGEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 24.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RGEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Repligen Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Repligen Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RGEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $18 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RGEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.6% for Repligen Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Repligen Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RGEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RGEN are equal to 134.5%.

Life of production assets of 31.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Repligen Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RGEN is equal to 28.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $615.568 million for Repligen Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.905 million for Repligen Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Repligen Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.4 billion.

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