Intrinsic value of Robert Half International - RHI

Previous Close

$68.45

  Intrinsic Value

$45.72

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-33%

Previous close

$68.45

 
Intrinsic value

$45.72

 
Up/down potential

-33%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RHI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5,372
  5,496
  5,637
  5,796
  5,971
  6,164
  6,374
  6,601
  6,846
  7,109
  7,390
  7,690
  8,009
  8,349
  8,709
  9,090
  9,494
  9,922
  10,373
  10,850
  11,353
  11,883
  12,442
  13,031
  13,651
  14,305
  14,992
  15,716
  16,477
  17,277
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,808
  4,918
  5,044
  5,185
  5,342
  5,513
  5,700
  5,903
  6,121
  6,355
  6,584
  6,851
  7,135
  7,438
  7,759
  8,099
  8,459
  8,839
  9,241
  9,666
  10,114
  10,587
  11,085
  11,609
  12,162
  12,744
  13,356
  14,001
  14,679
  15,392
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,808
  4,918
  5,044
  5,185
  5,342
  5,513
  5,700
  5,903
  6,121
  6,355
  6,584
  6,851
  7,135
  7,438
  7,759
  8,099
  8,459
  8,839
  9,241
  9,666
  10,114
  10,587
  11,085
  11,609
  12,162
  12,744
  13,356
  14,001
  14,679
  15,392
Operating income, $m
  565
  578
  593
  611
  630
  651
  674
  699
  725
  754
  806
  839
  874
  911
  950
  992
  1,036
  1,082
  1,132
  1,184
  1,239
  1,296
  1,357
  1,422
  1,489
  1,561
  1,636
  1,715
  1,798
  1,885
EBITDA, $m
  624
  638
  654
  673
  693
  716
  740
  766
  795
  825
  858
  893
  930
  969
  1,011
  1,055
  1,102
  1,152
  1,204
  1,260
  1,318
  1,380
  1,445
  1,513
  1,585
  1,661
  1,741
  1,825
  1,913
  2,006
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
Earnings before tax, $m
  564
  577
  592
  608
  626
  645
  667
  690
  715
  742
  792
  822
  855
  889
  926
  965
  1,006
  1,049
  1,095
  1,144
  1,195
  1,249
  1,306
  1,366
  1,429
  1,495
  1,565
  1,639
  1,716
  1,797
Tax expense, $m
  152
  156
  160
  164
  169
  174
  180
  186
  193
  200
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  261
  272
  283
  296
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  442
  463
  485
Net income, $m
  412
  421
  432
  444
  457
  471
  487
  504
  522
  541
  578
  600
  624
  649
  676
  704
  734
  766
  800
  835
  872
  912
  953
  997
  1,043
  1,091
  1,142
  1,196
  1,253
  1,312

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,905
  1,949
  1,999
  2,055
  2,118
  2,186
  2,260
  2,341
  2,428
  2,521
  2,621
  2,727
  2,840
  2,961
  3,088
  3,224
  3,367
  3,518
  3,678
  3,847
  4,026
  4,214
  4,412
  4,621
  4,841
  5,073
  5,316
  5,573
  5,843
  6,127
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,905
  1,949
  1,999
  2,055
  2,118
  2,186
  2,260
  2,341
  2,428
  2,521
  2,621
  2,727
  2,840
  2,961
  3,088
  3,224
  3,367
  3,518
  3,678
  3,847
  4,026
  4,214
  4,412
  4,621
  4,841
  5,073
  5,316
  5,573
  5,843
  6,127
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.819
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.819
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
  2.820
Average production assets, $m
  376
  385
  395
  406
  418
  431
  446
  462
  479
  498
  517
  538
  561
  584
  610
  636
  665
  695
  726
  759
  795
  832
  871
  912
  956
  1,001
  1,049
  1,100
  1,153
  1,209
Working capital, $m
  -129
  -132
  -135
  -139
  -143
  -148
  -153
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -177
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -249
  -260
  -272
  -285
  -299
  -313
  -328
  -343
  -360
  -377
  -395
  -415
Total debt, $m
  16
  34
  54
  77
  102
  130
  161
  193
  229
  267
  308
  351
  397
  446
  498
  554
  612
  674
  739
  808
  881
  958
  1,039
  1,124
  1,213
  1,308
  1,407
  1,512
  1,622
  1,738
Total liabilities, $m
  777
  795
  816
  839
  864
  892
  922
  955
  991
  1,029
  1,069
  1,113
  1,159
  1,208
  1,260
  1,315
  1,374
  1,435
  1,501
  1,570
  1,643
  1,719
  1,800
  1,885
  1,975
  2,070
  2,169
  2,274
  2,384
  2,500
Total equity, $m
  1,128
  1,154
  1,183
  1,217
  1,254
  1,294
  1,338
  1,386
  1,437
  1,492
  1,551
  1,614
  1,681
  1,753
  1,828
  1,908
  1,993
  2,083
  2,178
  2,278
  2,383
  2,495
  2,612
  2,736
  2,866
  3,003
  3,147
  3,299
  3,459
  3,627
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,905
  1,949
  1,999
  2,056
  2,118
  2,186
  2,260
  2,341
  2,428
  2,521
  2,620
  2,727
  2,840
  2,961
  3,088
  3,223
  3,367
  3,518
  3,679
  3,848
  4,026
  4,214
  4,412
  4,621
  4,841
  5,073
  5,316
  5,573
  5,843
  6,127
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.030
  0.050
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592
  0.592

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  412
  421
  432
  444
  457
  471
  487
  504
  522
  541
  578
  600
  624
  649
  676
  704
  734
  766
  800
  835
  872
  912
  953
  997
  1,043
  1,091
  1,142
  1,196
  1,253
  1,312
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
Funds from operations, $m
  471
  481
  493
  506
  520
  536
  553
  571
  591
  613
  630
  654
  680
  708
  737
  768
  801
  836
  872
  911
  952
  995
  1,040
  1,088
  1,139
  1,192
  1,247
  1,306
  1,368
  1,433
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from operations, $m
  474
  484
  496
  510
  524
  541
  558
  577
  597
  619
  637
  661
  688
  716
  746
  777
  811
  846
  883
  922
  964
  1,008
  1,054
  1,102
  1,153
  1,207
  1,264
  1,324
  1,386
  1,452
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -142
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -171
Free cash flow, $m
  429
  438
  448
  459
  472
  485
  500
  516
  534
  553
  567
  589
  612
  636
  662
  689
  719
  749
  782
  816
  853
  891
  931
  974
  1,019
  1,066
  1,116
  1,168
  1,223
  1,281
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  99
  105
  110
  116
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  99
  105
  110
  116
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  444
  456
  468
  482
  497
  513
  531
  549
  569
  591
  608
  632
  658
  685
  714
  745
  777
  811
  847
  885
  925
  968
  1,012
  1,059
  1,109
  1,160
  1,215
  1,273
  1,333
  1,397
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
Cash available for distribution, $m
  421
  430
  439
  449
  460
  473
  486
  502
  518
  536
  549
  569
  591
  614
  638
  665
  692
  722
  753
  785
  820
  856
  895
  936
  978
  1,023
  1,071
  1,121
  1,173
  1,229
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  403
  394
  382
  370
  357
  343
  329
  313
  298
  281
  261
  243
  225
  206
  187
  169
  151
  133
  116
  100
  85
  71
  59
  48
  38
  30
  23
  17
  13
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Robert Half International Inc. provides specialized staffing and risk consulting services. The Company provides these services through its divisions, including Accountemps, Robert Half Finance & Accounting, OfficeTeam, Robert Half Technology, Robert Half Management Resources, Robert Half Legal, The Creative Group and Protiviti. The Company operates through three segments: temporary and consultant staffing, permanent placement staffing, and risk consulting and internal audit services. The temporary and consultant staffing segment provides specialized staffing in the accounting and finance, administrative and office, information technology (IT), legal, advertising, marketing and Web design fields. The permanent placement staffing segment provides full-time personnel in the accounting, finance, administrative and office, and IT fields. The risk consulting and internal audit services segment provides business and technology risk consulting, and internal audit services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Robert Half International (RHI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.5
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 10.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 0.1%
Total Debt to Equity 0.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Return On Total Capital 32.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Return On Equity 32.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Asset Turnover 3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.2%
EBITDA Margin 11.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Operating Margin 10.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Effective Tax Rate 38.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
Payout Ratio 33.2%

RHI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RHI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5267 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Robert Half International. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Robert Half International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RHI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RHI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Robert Half International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Robert Half International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RHI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RHI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Robert Half International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Robert Half International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RHI stock is equal to 0.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RHI are equal to 7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Robert Half International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RHI is equal to -2.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1105 million for Robert Half International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 124 million for Robert Half International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Robert Half International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.5 billion.

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