Intrinsic value of Red Lion Hotels - RLH

Previous Close

$8.48

  Intrinsic Value

$1.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$8.48

 
Intrinsic value

$1.06

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RLH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  175
  179
  184
  189
  195
  201
  208
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  261
  273
  284
  297
  310
  324
  339
  354
  371
  388
  406
  425
  446
  467
  489
  513
  538
  564
Variable operating expenses, $m
  165
  169
  173
  178
  183
  189
  195
  201
  209
  216
  219
  228
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  352
  368
  386
  404
  424
  444
  465
  488
  512
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
Total operating expenses, $m
  173
  177
  182
  187
  192
  198
  204
  211
  219
  226
  229
  238
  248
  258
  269
  280
  293
  306
  319
  333
  349
  365
  381
  399
  418
  438
  458
  480
  503
  527
Operating income, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
EBITDA, $m
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
Earnings before tax, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Net income, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  315
  323
  331
  340
  351
  362
  374
  388
  402
  417
  434
  451
  470
  490
  511
  534
  557
  582
  609
  637
  667
  698
  730
  765
  801
  840
  880
  923
  967
  1,014
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  315
  323
  331
  340
  351
  362
  374
  388
  402
  417
  434
  451
  470
  490
  511
  534
  557
  582
  609
  637
  667
  698
  730
  765
  801
  840
  880
  923
  967
  1,014
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.556
  0.554
  0.556
  0.556
  0.556
  0.555
  0.556
  0.554
  0.555
  0.556
  0.555
  0.557
  0.555
  0.557
  0.556
  0.556
  0.557
  0.557
  0.557
  0.556
  0.556
  0.556
  0.556
  0.556
  0.557
  0.556
  0.556
  0.556
  0.556
  0.556
Average production assets, $m
  224
  229
  235
  242
  249
  257
  266
  275
  286
  297
  308
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  569
  597
  625
  656
  687
  721
Working capital, $m
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
Total debt, $m
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  149
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  311
  328
  345
  363
  382
  402
  423
  446
Total liabilities, $m
  150
  153
  157
  161
  166
  172
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  346
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  459
  481
Total equity, $m
  166
  170
  174
  179
  184
  190
  197
  204
  211
  220
  228
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  293
  306
  320
  335
  351
  367
  384
  402
  422
  442
  463
  485
  509
  534
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  316
  323
  331
  340
  350
  362
  374
  388
  402
  418
  434
  451
  470
  490
  511
  534
  557
  582
  609
  637
  667
  698
  730
  765
  802
  840
  880
  922
  968
  1,015
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
  0.750
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526
  0.526

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
Funds from operations, $m
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
Free cash flow, $m
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  12
  13
  15
  15
  17
  17
  19
  19
  21
  21
  17
  17
  19
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Discount rate, %
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  95.7
  91.3
  87.0
  82.8
  78.7
  74.8
  71.0
  67.5
  64.1
  60.8
  59.0
  57.2
  55.4
  53.7
  51.9
  50.3
  48.7
  47.1
  45.6
  44.1
  42.6
  41.3
  39.9
  38.6
  37.4
  36.2
  35.0
  33.9
  32.9
  31.8

Red Lion Hotels Corporation (RLHC) is a hospitality and leisure company. The Company is engaged in the franchising, management and ownership of hotels under the brands, including Hotel RL, Red Lion Hotel, Red Lion Inn & Suites, GuestHouse and Settle Inn & Suites (collectively the RLHC Brands). The RLHC brands represent upscale, midscale and economy hotels. The Company's segments include company operated hotel segment, franchised hotels segment and other. The company operated hotel segment is engaged in guest room rentals, and food and beverage operations at its operated hotels. The franchised hotels segment is engaged in licensing its brands to franchisees. The franchised hotels segment offers various programs, which include its reservation system, guest loyalty program, national and regional sales, revenue management tools, quality inspections, advertising and brand standards.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Red Lion Hotels (RLH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -39.7
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 33.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -7.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 38
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 69%
Total Debt to Equity 69.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital -2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Equity -3.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.6%
EBITDA Margin 9.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Net Profit Margin -3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

RLH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RLH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $171.926 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Red Lion Hotels. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Red Lion Hotels. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RLH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for RLH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Red Lion Hotels, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Red Lion Hotels.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RLH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $8 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RLH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.5% for Red Lion Hotels.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Red Lion Hotels. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RLH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RLH are equal to 127.8%.

Life of production assets of 13.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Red Lion Hotels operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RLH is equal to 17.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $162.859 million for Red Lion Hotels - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.275 million for Red Lion Hotels is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Red Lion Hotels at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
MAR Marriott Inter 115.07 89.80  sell
HLT Hilton Worldwi 70.19 85.01  hold
IHG InterContinent 52.69 165.95  str.buy
EXPE Expedia Group 122.25 326.86  str.buy
H Hyatt Hotels 68.44 36.00  str.sell
CHH Choice Hotels 77.44 27.39  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ RLH Corporation Announces Leadership Changes   [Oct-18-18 06:42PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RLH Corporation Set to Open Red Lion Hotel in Houston   [Oct-02-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Red Lion Hotel Debuts in Orlando, Florida   [Sep-20-18 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Red Lion Hotels Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-09-18 03:00PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Red Lion Hotels: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Signature Hotel Brand Debuts in San Francisco   [Jul-11-18 11:18AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RLH Corporation Set to Open First Hotel RL in California   [Jun-27-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RLH Corporation Appoints Gary Sims Chief Operating Officer   [Jun-06-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RLH Corporation Increases Group Commission to 11%   [May-24-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ The Island by Hotel RL Opens in Fort Walton Beach, Florida   [May-15-18 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Red Lion Hotels: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 05:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ RLH Corporation Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [May-08-18 04:17PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RLH Corporation Builds on Q1 2018 Momentum   [Apr-18-18 11:43AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Denver hotel company purchases Knights Inn brand of properties   [Apr-04-18 11:11AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Red Lion Hotels posts 4Q profit   [Mar-28-18 05:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ First Signature Hotel Set to Open in San Francisco   [Feb-06-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RLH Corporation Hosts Investor Day   [Nov-30-17 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RLH Corporation Grows Senior Leadership Team   [04:47PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Red Lion Hotels Corporation (RLH) Could Be A Buy   [Nov-24-17 08:05AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ RLH Corporation to Welcome a Hotel RL in New Orleans   [Nov-16-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Red Lion Hotels posts 3Q profit   [Nov-02-17 06:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ RLH Corporation Names Paul Sacco Chief Development Officer   [Sep-18-17 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ National hotel chain moving its corporate headquarters to Denver   [Aug-07-17 12:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Red Lion Hotels posts 2Q loss   [Aug-05-17 01:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ RLH Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]

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