Intrinsic value of RMR Group Cl A - RMR

Previous Close

$68.79

  Intrinsic Value

$193.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+182%

Previous close

$68.79

 
Intrinsic value

$193.67

 
Up/down potential

+182%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as RMR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RMR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.07
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  304
  338
  374
  411
  451
  492
  534
  578
  625
  673
  722
  774
  828
  884
  942
  1,002
  1,065
  1,131
  1,199
  1,270
  1,344
  1,422
  1,503
  1,587
  1,675
  1,767
  1,863
  1,964
  2,069
  2,179
Variable operating expenses, $m
  137
  153
  169
  186
  204
  222
  241
  261
  282
  304
  326
  349
  373
  399
  425
  452
  481
  510
  541
  573
  607
  641
  678
  716
  756
  797
  841
  886
  933
  983
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  137
  153
  169
  186
  204
  222
  241
  261
  282
  304
  326
  349
  373
  399
  425
  452
  481
  510
  541
  573
  607
  641
  678
  716
  756
  797
  841
  886
  933
  983
Operating income, $m
  167
  185
  205
  226
  247
  270
  293
  317
  343
  369
  396
  425
  454
  485
  517
  550
  585
  621
  658
  697
  738
  780
  825
  871
  919
  970
  1,023
  1,078
  1,136
  1,196
EBITDA, $m
  168
  187
  207
  227
  249
  272
  295
  320
  345
  372
  399
  428
  457
  488
  520
  554
  589
  625
  662
  702
  743
  785
  830
  877
  925
  976
  1,029
  1,085
  1,143
  1,204
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  84
Earnings before tax, $m
  167
  184
  202
  221
  241
  261
  283
  305
  328
  352
  378
  404
  431
  459
  489
  519
  551
  584
  618
  654
  691
  730
  771
  814
  858
  905
  953
  1,004
  1,057
  1,113
Tax expense, $m
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
  300
Net income, $m
  122
  134
  147
  161
  176
  191
  206
  223
  240
  257
  276
  295
  315
  335
  357
  379
  402
  426
  451
  477
  505
  533
  563
  594
  626
  660
  696
  733
  772
  812

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  337
  375
  415
  456
  500
  545
  592
  641
  692
  746
  801
  858
  918
  980
  1,044
  1,111
  1,181
  1,254
  1,329
  1,408
  1,491
  1,576
  1,666
  1,759
  1,857
  1,959
  2,066
  2,177
  2,294
  2,416
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  337
  375
  415
  456
  500
  545
  592
  641
  692
  746
  801
  858
  918
  980
  1,044
  1,111
  1,181
  1,254
  1,329
  1,408
  1,491
  1,576
  1,666
  1,759
  1,857
  1,959
  2,066
  2,177
  2,294
  2,416
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.902
  0.901
  0.901
  0.901
  0.902
  0.903
  0.902
  0.902
  0.903
  0.902
  0.901
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.901
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
  0.902
Average production assets, $m
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
Working capital, $m
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
Total debt, $m
  28
  57
  88
  120
  154
  189
  226
  264
  304
  345
  388
  433
  479
  527
  577
  629
  684
  740
  799
  860
  924
  991
  1,060
  1,133
  1,209
  1,288
  1,371
  1,458
  1,548
  1,643
Total liabilities, $m
  262
  291
  322
  354
  388
  423
  460
  498
  538
  579
  622
  667
  713
  761
  811
  864
  918
  974
  1,033
  1,094
  1,158
  1,225
  1,294
  1,367
  1,443
  1,522
  1,605
  1,692
  1,782
  1,877
Total equity, $m
  75
  84
  92
  102
  111
  122
  132
  143
  154
  166
  179
  191
  205
  219
  233
  248
  263
  280
  296
  314
  332
  352
  371
  392
  414
  437
  461
  486
  512
  539
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  337
  375
  414
  456
  499
  545
  592
  641
  692
  745
  801
  858
  918
  980
  1,044
  1,112
  1,181
  1,254
  1,329
  1,408
  1,490
  1,577
  1,665
  1,759
  1,857
  1,959
  2,066
  2,178
  2,294
  2,416
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.370
  0.680
  0.950
  1.180
  1.380
  1.560
  1.710
  1.850
  1.970
  2.080
  2.170
  2.260
  2.340
  2.410
  2.480
  2.540
  2.600
  2.650
  2.690
  2.740
  2.780
  2.820
  2.850
  2.890
  2.920
  2.950
  2.980
  3.000
  3.030
  3.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223
  0.223

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  122
  134
  147
  161
  176
  191
  206
  223
  240
  257
  276
  295
  315
  335
  357
  379
  402
  426
  451
  477
  505
  533
  563
  594
  626
  660
  696
  733
  772
  812
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Funds from operations, $m
  123
  136
  149
  163
  178
  193
  209
  225
  242
  260
  278
  298
  318
  338
  360
  382
  406
  430
  456
  482
  510
  538
  568
  600
  632
  667
  702
  740
  779
  820
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  122
  135
  148
  162
  177
  192
  208
  224
  241
  259
  277
  297
  317
  337
  359
  381
  405
  429
  454
  481
  508
  537
  567
  598
  631
  665
  700
  738
  777
  818
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
Free cash flow, $m
  121
  133
  146
  160
  174
  189
  205
  221
  238
  256
  274
  293
  313
  333
  355
  377
  400
  424
  449
  475
  502
  531
  560
  591
  623
  657
  692
  729
  768
  808
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  149
  163
  177
  192
  208
  225
  242
  260
  278
  297
  317
  338
  359
  381
  405
  429
  454
  480
  508
  536
  566
  597
  630
  664
  699
  736
  775
  816
  859
  903
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  223
  154
  168
  183
  199
  215
  231
  249
  267
  285
  305
  325
  346
  368
  390
  414
  438
  464
  491
  519
  548
  578
  610
  643
  677
  714
  751
  791
  833
  876
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  214
  141
  147
  151
  154
  156
  156
  155
  153
  150
  145
  139
  131
  123
  115
  105
  95
  85
  76
  66
  57
  48
  40
  33
  26
  21
  16
  12
  9
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The RMR Group Inc. is a holding company. The Company's business is primarily conducted by its subsidiary, The RMR Group LLC (RMR LLC). The Company's segments include RMR LLC and All Other Operations. RMR LLC manages a portfolio of publicly owned real estate and real estate related businesses. RMR LLC manages Government Properties Income Trust, a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily owns properties that are leased to government tenants; Hospitality Properties Trust, an REIT that primarily owns hotels and travel centers; Select Income REIT, an REIT that primarily owns properties leased to single tenants across the United States and leased lands in Hawaii, and Senior Housing Properties Trust, an REIT that primarily owns senior living communities and medical office buildings. As of June 30, 2016, RMR LLC managed over 1,300 properties, which were located in 48 states, Washington, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RMR Group Cl A (RMR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 50.9
Price to Sales 7.9
Price to Book 14.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Return On Total Capital 30.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Return On Equity 30.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 63.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.8%
EBITDA Margin 51.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.1%
Operating Margin 50%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49%
Pre-Tax Margin 50.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.3%
Net Profit Margin 15.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Effective Tax Rate 20.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Payout Ratio 38.1%

RMR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RMR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $271.728 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RMR Group Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of RMR Group Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RMR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RMR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RMR Group Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RMR Group Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RMR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 45.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RMR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for RMR Group Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RMR Group Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RMR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RMR are equal to 1.8%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RMR Group Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RMR is equal to 2.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $149.531 million for RMR Group Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.174 million for RMR Group Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RMR Group Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ The RMR Group Inc. Announces Management Retirements   [Oct-25-18 05:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ The RMR Group Inc. Announces 95 Property Awards   [Oct-10-18 08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is The RMR Group Incs (NASDAQ:RMR) ROE Of 49% Sustainable?   [Oct-04-18 10:21AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ RMR Group, Inc. Class A to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-08-18 11:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ RMR Group: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ The RMR Group Inc (NASDAQ:RMR): Financial Strength Analysis   [Jun-22-18 10:41AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ RMR Group: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-10-18 07:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ What You Must Know About The RMR Group Incs (NASDAQ:RMR) ROE   [May-07-18 08:11PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ The RMR Group Inc. Announces Six Awards   [Apr-06-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ The RMR Group Inc. Announces Annual Meeting Results   [Mar-29-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Has The RMR Group Inc (NASDAQ:RMR) Got Enough Cash?   [Mar-12-18 03:34PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Who Owns Most Of The RMR Group Inc (NASDAQ:RMR)?   [Feb-22-18 04:03PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ RMR Group posts 1Q profit   [09:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RMR Group, Inc. : December 26, 2017   [Dec-26-17 12:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RMR Group, Inc. : December 15, 2017   [Dec-15-17 02:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ RMR Group tops 4Q profit forecasts   [07:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RMR Group, Inc. : November 15, 2017   [Nov-15-17 12:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ The RMR Group Inc. Announces Four Property Awards   [Oct-27-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RMR Group, Inc. : October 3, 2017   [Oct-03-17 11:33AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is The RMR Group Inc (RMR) A Real Estate Leader?   [Sep-22-17 08:06PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ The RMR Group Inc. Announces Three Property Awards   [Sep-21-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Opening Bell, June 14, 2017   [Jun-14-17 09:29AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RMR Group, Inc. : May 29, 2017   [May-29-17 12:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RMR Group, Inc. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:59PM  Capital Cube]

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