Intrinsic value of Retail Opportunity Investment - ROIC

Previous Close

$19.08

  Intrinsic Value

$2.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$19.08

 
Intrinsic value

$2.55

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ROIC.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ROIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.62
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  297
  321
  347
  373
  401
  429
  459
  490
  522
  555
  590
  626
  664
  703
  744
  786
  831
  877
  926
  977
  1,030
  1,086
  1,144
  1,205
  1,268
  1,335
  1,405
  1,478
  1,555
  1,635
Variable operating expenses, $m
  161
  174
  187
  201
  215
  230
  245
  261
  277
  294
  304
  323
  342
  362
  384
  406
  429
  453
  478
  504
  531
  560
  590
  621
  654
  688
  724
  762
  802
  843
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
Total operating expenses, $m
  193
  206
  220
  235
  250
  265
  281
  298
  315
  333
  343
  363
  383
  404
  427
  450
  474
  499
  525
  552
  580
  610
  641
  673
  707
  743
  780
  819
  860
  903
Operating income, $m
  104
  115
  127
  139
  151
  164
  178
  192
  207
  222
  246
  263
  280
  298
  317
  337
  358
  379
  402
  425
  450
  476
  503
  531
  561
  592
  625
  659
  695
  732
EBITDA, $m
  215
  235
  255
  276
  299
  322
  345
  370
  396
  423
  451
  480
  511
  542
  576
  610
  646
  684
  723
  765
  808
  853
  900
  950
  1,001
  1,056
  1,113
  1,172
  1,235
  1,300
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  80
  89
  98
  107
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  183
  196
  209
  223
  237
  252
  267
  284
  300
  318
  337
  356
  376
  397
  419
  443
  467
  492
  519
  547
Earnings before tax, $m
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  158
  166
  176
  185
Tax expense, $m
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
Net income, $m
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,881
  3,119
  3,365
  3,622
  3,889
  4,166
  4,454
  4,753
  5,064
  5,388
  5,725
  6,076
  6,442
  6,823
  7,220
  7,635
  8,068
  8,519
  8,991
  9,485
  10,000
  10,540
  11,104
  11,695
  12,313
  12,961
  13,639
  14,349
  15,094
  15,874
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,881
  3,119
  3,365
  3,622
  3,889
  4,166
  4,454
  4,753
  5,064
  5,388
  5,725
  6,076
  6,442
  6,823
  7,220
  7,635
  8,068
  8,519
  8,991
  9,485
  10,000
  10,540
  11,104
  11,695
  12,313
  12,961
  13,639
  14,349
  15,094
  15,874
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
Average production assets, $m
  2,948
  3,191
  3,444
  3,706
  3,979
  4,263
  4,558
  4,864
  5,183
  5,514
  5,859
  6,218
  6,592
  6,982
  7,389
  7,813
  8,256
  8,718
  9,201
  9,706
  10,233
  10,785
  11,363
  11,967
  12,600
  13,263
  13,957
  14,684
  15,445
  16,244
Working capital, $m
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
Total debt, $m
  1,651
  1,816
  1,988
  2,166
  2,351
  2,543
  2,743
  2,951
  3,167
  3,391
  3,625
  3,869
  4,123
  4,387
  4,663
  4,951
  5,251
  5,564
  5,892
  6,234
  6,592
  6,967
  7,358
  7,768
  8,197
  8,647
  9,117
  9,610
  10,127
  10,668
Total liabilities, $m
  2,000
  2,164
  2,336
  2,514
  2,699
  2,891
  3,091
  3,299
  3,515
  3,740
  3,973
  4,217
  4,471
  4,735
  5,011
  5,299
  5,599
  5,912
  6,240
  6,582
  6,940
  7,315
  7,706
  8,116
  8,545
  8,995
  9,465
  9,958
  10,475
  11,017
Total equity, $m
  882
  954
  1,030
  1,108
  1,190
  1,275
  1,363
  1,454
  1,550
  1,649
  1,752
  1,859
  1,971
  2,088
  2,209
  2,336
  2,469
  2,607
  2,751
  2,902
  3,060
  3,225
  3,398
  3,579
  3,768
  3,966
  4,173
  4,391
  4,619
  4,857
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,882
  3,118
  3,366
  3,622
  3,889
  4,166
  4,454
  4,753
  5,065
  5,389
  5,725
  6,076
  6,442
  6,823
  7,220
  7,635
  8,068
  8,519
  8,991
  9,484
  10,000
  10,540
  11,104
  11,695
  12,313
  12,961
  13,638
  14,349
  15,094
  15,874
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.870
  1.900
  1.930
  1.950
  1.980
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.040
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
  2.130
  2.130
  2.140
  2.150
  2.150
  2.160
  2.170
  2.170
  2.180
  2.180
  2.180
  2.190
  2.190
  2.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  111
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  168
  178
  189
  201
  205
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  289
  305
  322
  339
  358
  377
  397
  418
  441
  464
  488
  513
  540
  568
Funds from operations, $m
  128
  139
  149
  161
  172
  185
  197
  210
  224
  238
  251
  266
  283
  299
  317
  335
  355
  375
  396
  418
  440
  465
  490
  516
  544
  573
  603
  635
  668
  703
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  130
  140
  151
  162
  174
  186
  199
  212
  226
  240
  253
  268
  285
  302
  319
  338
  357
  377
  398
  420
  443
  468
  493
  519
  547
  576
  607
  639
  673
  708
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -120
  -130
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -244
  -258
  -273
  -289
  -305
  -322
  -339
  -358
  -377
  -397
  -418
  -441
  -464
  -488
  -513
  -540
New CAPEX, $m
  -236
  -243
  -253
  -263
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -306
  -319
  -331
  -345
  -359
  -374
  -390
  -407
  -424
  -443
  -462
  -483
  -505
  -528
  -552
  -578
  -604
  -633
  -663
  -694
  -727
  -762
  -798
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -331
  -346
  -365
  -383
  -403
  -423
  -444
  -465
  -489
  -512
  -538
  -564
  -591
  -620
  -651
  -682
  -716
  -751
  -788
  -827
  -867
  -910
  -955
  -1,001
  -1,051
  -1,104
  -1,158
  -1,215
  -1,275
  -1,338
Free cash flow, $m
  -201
  -206
  -213
  -221
  -229
  -237
  -245
  -254
  -263
  -272
  -285
  -296
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -345
  -359
  -374
  -390
  -406
  -424
  -442
  -462
  -482
  -504
  -527
  -551
  -576
  -603
  -631
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  164
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  244
  254
  264
  276
  288
  300
  314
  328
  342
  358
  374
  392
  410
  429
  449
  471
  493
  517
  542
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  56
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  68
  71
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  103
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  220
  219
  226
  234
  242
  250
  259
  268
  277
  287
  291
  302
  314
  325
  339
  353
  367
  382
  399
  415
  433
  452
  472
  493
  515
  538
  563
  589
  617
  645
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  19
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -73
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -217
  -228
  -239
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  396
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  342
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
Discount rate, %
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  318
  -52
  -49
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -38
  -35
  -32
  -28
  -27
  -24
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.2
  92.9
  89.9
  87.2
  84.7
  82.4
  80.3
  78.3
  76.5
  74.8
  73.3
  71.9
  70.6
  69.4
  68.2
  67.1
  66.0
  65.0
  64.0
  63.0
  62.1
  61.2
  60.3
  59.5
  58.7
  57.9
  57.1
  56.4
  55.7
  54.9

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. (ROIC) is a fully integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company specializes in the acquisition, ownership and management of necessity-based community and neighborhood shopping centers on the west coast of the United States, anchored by supermarkets and drugstores. Retail Opportunity Investments Partnership, LP is the operating partnership of the Company. The Operating Partnership holds substantially all the assets of the Company and directly or indirectly holds the ownership interests in the Company's real estate ventures. The Operating Partnership conducts the operations of the Company's business. As of September 30, 2017, the Company's portfolio consisted of 87 properties totaling approximately 10.0 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA). As of September 30, 2017, the Company's portfolio was approximately 97.3% leased.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Retail Opportunity Investment (ROIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63.2
Price to Sales 8.8
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 97.3%
Total Debt to Equity 97.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Equity 3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 86.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.1%
EBITDA Margin 66.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.8%
Operating Margin 32.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Net Profit Margin 13.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 254.5%

ROIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ROIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $273.26 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Retail Opportunity Investment. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Retail Opportunity Investment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ROIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for ROIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Retail Opportunity Investment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Retail Opportunity Investment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ROIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 54.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $31 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ROIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Retail Opportunity Investment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Retail Opportunity Investment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ROIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ROIC are equal to 993.5%.

Life of production assets of 28.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Retail Opportunity Investment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ROIC is equal to -5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1203.967 million for Retail Opportunity Investment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 109.73 million for Retail Opportunity Investment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Retail Opportunity Investment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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