Intrinsic value of Rockwell Automation - ROK

Previous Close

$166.25

  Intrinsic Value

$121.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

Previous close

$166.25

 
Intrinsic value

$121.13

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ROK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 20.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  6,703
  7,110
  7,535
  7,977
  8,439
  8,921
  9,424
  9,949
  10,498
  11,072
  11,671
  12,299
  12,956
  13,643
  14,363
  15,116
  15,906
  16,733
  17,599
  18,508
  19,460
  20,459
  21,506
  22,604
  23,756
  24,964
  26,232
  27,562
  28,957
  30,421
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,548
  5,878
  6,221
  6,579
  6,952
  7,341
  7,747
  8,172
  8,615
  9,079
  9,432
  9,939
  10,470
  11,026
  11,607
  12,216
  12,854
  13,523
  14,223
  14,957
  15,727
  16,534
  17,380
  18,268
  19,199
  20,175
  21,199
  22,274
  23,402
  24,585
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,548
  5,878
  6,221
  6,579
  6,952
  7,341
  7,747
  8,172
  8,615
  9,079
  9,432
  9,939
  10,470
  11,026
  11,607
  12,216
  12,854
  13,523
  14,223
  14,957
  15,727
  16,534
  17,380
  18,268
  19,199
  20,175
  21,199
  22,274
  23,402
  24,585
Operating income, $m
  1,154
  1,232
  1,314
  1,399
  1,487
  1,580
  1,676
  1,777
  1,882
  1,992
  2,239
  2,360
  2,485
  2,617
  2,755
  2,900
  3,051
  3,210
  3,376
  3,551
  3,733
  3,925
  4,126
  4,337
  4,558
  4,789
  5,033
  5,288
  5,555
  5,836
EBITDA, $m
  1,403
  1,488
  1,577
  1,670
  1,766
  1,867
  1,972
  2,082
  2,197
  2,317
  2,443
  2,574
  2,711
  2,855
  3,006
  3,164
  3,329
  3,502
  3,683
  3,873
  4,073
  4,282
  4,501
  4,731
  4,972
  5,225
  5,490
  5,768
  6,060
  6,367
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  100
  113
  126
  140
  155
  171
  187
  203
  221
  239
  258
  278
  299
  321
  344
  368
  393
  420
  447
  476
  507
  538
  572
  607
  643
  682
  722
  764
  809
  855
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,055
  1,120
  1,188
  1,258
  1,332
  1,409
  1,490
  1,574
  1,661
  1,753
  1,981
  2,081
  2,186
  2,296
  2,411
  2,532
  2,658
  2,790
  2,929
  3,074
  3,227
  3,387
  3,554
  3,730
  3,914
  4,108
  4,311
  4,523
  4,747
  4,981
Tax expense, $m
  285
  302
  321
  340
  360
  380
  402
  425
  449
  473
  535
  562
  590
  620
  651
  684
  718
  753
  791
  830
  871
  914
  960
  1,007
  1,057
  1,109
  1,164
  1,221
  1,282
  1,345
Net income, $m
  770
  817
  867
  919
  973
  1,029
  1,087
  1,149
  1,213
  1,280
  1,446
  1,519
  1,596
  1,676
  1,760
  1,848
  1,940
  2,037
  2,138
  2,244
  2,356
  2,472
  2,595
  2,723
  2,857
  2,999
  3,147
  3,302
  3,465
  3,636

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,552
  6,950
  7,365
  7,798
  8,249
  8,720
  9,212
  9,725
  10,262
  10,823
  11,409
  12,022
  12,664
  13,336
  14,040
  14,776
  15,548
  16,356
  17,204
  18,092
  19,023
  19,999
  21,023
  22,096
  23,222
  24,403
  25,642
  26,942
  28,306
  29,737
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,552
  6,950
  7,365
  7,798
  8,249
  8,720
  9,212
  9,725
  10,262
  10,823
  11,409
  12,022
  12,664
  13,336
  14,040
  14,776
  15,548
  16,356
  17,204
  18,092
  19,023
  19,999
  21,023
  22,096
  23,222
  24,403
  25,642
  26,942
  28,306
  29,737
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
  1.023
Average production assets, $m
  1,320
  1,401
  1,484
  1,572
  1,662
  1,757
  1,856
  1,960
  2,068
  2,181
  2,299
  2,423
  2,552
  2,688
  2,829
  2,978
  3,133
  3,296
  3,467
  3,646
  3,834
  4,030
  4,237
  4,453
  4,680
  4,918
  5,168
  5,430
  5,705
  5,993
Working capital, $m
  362
  384
  407
  431
  456
  482
  509
  537
  567
  598
  630
  664
  700
  737
  776
  816
  859
  904
  950
  999
  1,051
  1,105
  1,161
  1,221
  1,283
  1,348
  1,417
  1,488
  1,564
  1,643
Total debt, $m
  2,087
  2,339
  2,601
  2,874
  3,160
  3,457
  3,768
  4,093
  4,432
  4,786
  5,157
  5,544
  5,950
  6,375
  6,819
  7,285
  7,772
  8,283
  8,819
  9,380
  9,969
  10,585
  11,232
  11,911
  12,622
  13,369
  14,152
  14,974
  15,836
  16,740
Total liabilities, $m
  4,141
  4,393
  4,655
  4,928
  5,214
  5,511
  5,822
  6,146
  6,485
  6,840
  7,211
  7,598
  8,004
  8,428
  8,873
  9,339
  9,826
  10,337
  10,873
  11,434
  12,022
  12,639
  13,286
  13,965
  14,676
  15,423
  16,206
  17,027
  17,889
  18,794
Total equity, $m
  2,411
  2,558
  2,710
  2,870
  3,036
  3,209
  3,390
  3,579
  3,776
  3,983
  4,199
  4,424
  4,660
  4,908
  5,167
  5,438
  5,722
  6,019
  6,331
  6,658
  7,000
  7,360
  7,736
  8,131
  8,546
  8,980
  9,436
  9,915
  10,417
  10,943
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,552
  6,951
  7,365
  7,798
  8,250
  8,720
  9,212
  9,725
  10,261
  10,823
  11,410
  12,022
  12,664
  13,336
  14,040
  14,777
  15,548
  16,356
  17,204
  18,092
  19,022
  19,999
  21,022
  22,096
  23,222
  24,403
  25,642
  26,942
  28,306
  29,737
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.870
  0.910
  0.960
  1.000
  1.040
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.200
  1.230
  1.250
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.410
  1.420
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  770
  817
  867
  919
  973
  1,029
  1,087
  1,149
  1,213
  1,280
  1,446
  1,519
  1,596
  1,676
  1,760
  1,848
  1,940
  2,037
  2,138
  2,244
  2,356
  2,472
  2,595
  2,723
  2,857
  2,999
  3,147
  3,302
  3,465
  3,636
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  248
  256
  263
  271
  279
  287
  296
  305
  315
  325
  203
  214
  226
  238
  250
  264
  277
  292
  307
  323
  339
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  481
  505
  530
Funds from operations, $m
  1,018
  1,073
  1,130
  1,189
  1,251
  1,316
  1,383
  1,454
  1,527
  1,604
  1,649
  1,734
  1,822
  1,914
  2,011
  2,112
  2,218
  2,329
  2,445
  2,567
  2,695
  2,829
  2,970
  3,117
  3,272
  3,434
  3,604
  3,783
  3,970
  4,167
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
Cash from operations, $m
  997
  1,051
  1,107
  1,165
  1,226
  1,290
  1,356
  1,425
  1,498
  1,573
  1,617
  1,700
  1,786
  1,877
  1,972
  2,071
  2,175
  2,284
  2,398
  2,518
  2,643
  2,775
  2,913
  3,058
  3,209
  3,369
  3,536
  3,711
  3,895
  4,088
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -214
  -226
  -238
  -250
  -264
  -277
  -292
  -307
  -323
  -339
  -357
  -375
  -394
  -414
  -435
  -457
  -481
  -505
New CAPEX, $m
  -78
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -188
  -197
  -208
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -255
  -267
  -281
  -296
  -311
  -327
  -343
  -361
  -380
  -398
  -420
  -440
  -463
  -486
  -511
  -536
  -563
  -591
  -621
  -652
  -685
  -719
  -756
  -793
Free cash flow, $m
  809
  854
  899
  947
  996
  1,048
  1,102
  1,158
  1,216
  1,277
  1,306
  1,373
  1,442
  1,516
  1,592
  1,672
  1,756
  1,844
  1,936
  2,032
  2,133
  2,239
  2,350
  2,466
  2,588
  2,716
  2,851
  2,991
  3,139
  3,294
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  243
  252
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  339
  354
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  535
  561
  588
  617
  647
  678
  712
  746
  783
  822
  862
  905
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  243
  252
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  339
  354
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  535
  561
  588
  617
  647
  678
  712
  746
  783
  822
  862
  905
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,052
  1,106
  1,162
  1,220
  1,281
  1,345
  1,412
  1,482
  1,555
  1,632
  1,676
  1,760
  1,848
  1,940
  2,037
  2,138
  2,244
  2,355
  2,471
  2,593
  2,722
  2,856
  2,997
  3,145
  3,300
  3,463
  3,634
  3,813
  4,001
  4,199
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -137
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -377
  -395
  -414
  -435
  -456
  -478
  -502
  -527
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  390
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,305
  959
  1,009
  1,061
  1,115
  1,172
  1,231
  1,293
  1,358
  1,425
  1,461
  1,535
  1,612
  1,693
  1,778
  1,867
  1,960
  2,057
  2,159
  2,267
  2,379
  2,497
  2,620
  2,750
  2,886
  3,028
  3,178
  3,335
  3,499
  3,672
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,251
  878
  878
  874
  865
  851
  832
  808
  780
  747
  694
  655
  613
  568
  522
  474
  426
  379
  332
  288
  246
  207
  172
  140
  112
  88
  68
  52
  38
  28
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Rockwell Automation, Inc. (Rockwell Automation) is a provider of industrial automation power, control and information solutions for manufacturers. The Company operates through two segments: Architecture & Software and Control Products & Solutions. The Architecture & Software segment contains various hardware, software and communication components of the Company's integrated control and information architecture capable of controlling the customer's industrial processes and connecting with their manufacturing enterprise. Architecture & Software has a portfolio of products, including Control platforms that perform multiple control disciplines and monitoring of applications, including discrete, batch and continuous process, drives control, motion control and machine safety control. The Control Products & Solutions segment portfolio includes low and medium voltage electro-mechanical and electronic motor starters, signaling devices, termination and protection devices, relays and timers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rockwell Automation (ROK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.8
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 21.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 46.7%
Total Debt to Equity 69.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Return On Total Capital 19.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Return On Equity 35.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.2%
EBITDA Margin 19.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Operating Margin 16.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Net Profit Margin 13.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Effective Tax Rate 20.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Payout Ratio 47.3%

ROK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ROK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6311.3 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rockwell Automation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Rockwell Automation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ROK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ROK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rockwell Automation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rockwell Automation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ROK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ROK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Rockwell Automation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rockwell Automation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ROK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ROK are equal to 19.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rockwell Automation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ROK is equal to 5.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2663.6 million for Rockwell Automation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 123.2 million for Rockwell Automation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rockwell Automation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $20.5 billion.

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