Intrinsic value of Rockwell Automation - ROK

Previous Close

$172.07

  Intrinsic Value

$118.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-31%

Previous close

$172.07

 
Intrinsic value

$118.21

 
Up/down potential

-31%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ROK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 22.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
Revenue, $m
  6,772
  7,250
  7,748
  8,265
  8,803
  9,363
  9,946
  10,552
  11,184
  11,843
  12,531
  13,247
  13,996
  14,778
  15,594
  16,448
  17,340
  18,274
  19,251
  20,273
  21,343
  22,464
  23,638
  24,868
  26,157
  27,508
  28,925
  30,410
  31,967
  33,600
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,604
  5,991
  6,393
  6,811
  7,246
  7,698
  8,169
  8,659
  9,170
  9,703
  10,127
  10,706
  11,311
  11,942
  12,602
  13,292
  14,013
  14,768
  15,557
  16,383
  17,248
  18,154
  19,103
  20,097
  21,139
  22,231
  23,375
  24,575
  25,834
  27,153
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,604
  5,991
  6,393
  6,811
  7,246
  7,698
  8,169
  8,659
  9,170
  9,703
  10,127
  10,706
  11,311
  11,942
  12,602
  13,292
  14,013
  14,768
  15,557
  16,383
  17,248
  18,154
  19,103
  20,097
  21,139
  22,231
  23,375
  24,575
  25,834
  27,153
Operating income, $m
  1,168
  1,259
  1,355
  1,454
  1,557
  1,665
  1,777
  1,893
  2,014
  2,141
  2,404
  2,542
  2,685
  2,835
  2,992
  3,156
  3,327
  3,506
  3,693
  3,889
  4,095
  4,310
  4,535
  4,771
  5,018
  5,278
  5,549
  5,834
  6,133
  6,446
EBITDA, $m
  1,504
  1,610
  1,720
  1,835
  1,955
  2,079
  2,208
  2,343
  2,484
  2,630
  2,782
  2,942
  3,108
  3,281
  3,463
  3,652
  3,850
  4,058
  4,275
  4,502
  4,739
  4,988
  5,249
  5,522
  5,808
  6,108
  6,423
  6,753
  7,098
  7,461
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  79
  95
  112
  129
  147
  166
  186
  206
  228
  250
  273
  297
  323
  349
  376
  405
  435
  467
  499
  534
  570
  607
  647
  688
  731
  777
  824
  874
  926
  981
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,089
  1,165
  1,243
  1,325
  1,410
  1,498
  1,591
  1,686
  1,786
  1,891
  2,131
  2,244
  2,363
  2,486
  2,615
  2,750
  2,892
  3,039
  3,194
  3,356
  3,525
  3,702
  3,888
  4,083
  4,287
  4,501
  4,725
  4,960
  5,207
  5,465
Tax expense, $m
  294
  314
  336
  358
  381
  405
  429
  455
  482
  510
  575
  606
  638
  671
  706
  743
  781
  821
  862
  906
  952
  1,000
  1,050
  1,102
  1,158
  1,215
  1,276
  1,339
  1,406
  1,476
Net income, $m
  795
  850
  908
  967
  1,029
  1,094
  1,161
  1,231
  1,304
  1,380
  1,555
  1,638
  1,725
  1,815
  1,909
  2,008
  2,111
  2,219
  2,332
  2,450
  2,573
  2,703
  2,838
  2,981
  3,130
  3,286
  3,449
  3,621
  3,801
  3,990

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,266
  7,779
  8,313
  8,868
  9,446
  10,046
  10,671
  11,322
  12,001
  12,707
  13,445
  14,214
  15,017
  15,856
  16,732
  17,648
  18,605
  19,607
  20,655
  21,752
  22,900
  24,103
  25,363
  26,683
  28,066
  29,515
  31,035
  32,628
  34,299
  36,051
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,266
  7,779
  8,313
  8,868
  9,446
  10,046
  10,671
  11,322
  12,001
  12,707
  13,445
  14,214
  15,017
  15,856
  16,732
  17,648
  18,605
  19,607
  20,655
  21,752
  22,900
  24,103
  25,363
  26,683
  28,066
  29,515
  31,035
  32,628
  34,299
  36,051
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
  0.932
Average production assets, $m
  2,045
  2,190
  2,340
  2,496
  2,659
  2,828
  3,004
  3,187
  3,378
  3,577
  3,784
  4,001
  4,227
  4,463
  4,709
  4,967
  5,237
  5,519
  5,814
  6,122
  6,446
  6,784
  7,139
  7,510
  7,899
  8,308
  8,735
  9,184
  9,654
  10,147
Working capital, $m
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -225
  -236
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -336
Total debt, $m
  1,756
  2,068
  2,392
  2,729
  3,080
  3,444
  3,824
  4,219
  4,630
  5,060
  5,507
  5,974
  6,461
  6,971
  7,502
  8,058
  8,640
  9,248
  9,884
  10,550
  11,247
  11,977
  12,741
  13,542
  14,382
  15,262
  16,184
  17,151
  18,166
  19,229
Total liabilities, $m
  4,410
  4,722
  5,046
  5,383
  5,734
  6,098
  6,478
  6,873
  7,284
  7,713
  8,161
  8,628
  9,115
  9,624
  10,156
  10,712
  11,293
  11,901
  12,538
  13,203
  13,901
  14,631
  15,395
  16,196
  17,036
  17,916
  18,838
  19,805
  20,819
  21,883
Total equity, $m
  2,855
  3,057
  3,267
  3,485
  3,712
  3,948
  4,194
  4,450
  4,716
  4,994
  5,284
  5,586
  5,902
  6,231
  6,576
  6,936
  7,312
  7,706
  8,117
  8,549
  9,000
  9,473
  9,968
  10,486
  11,030
  11,600
  12,197
  12,823
  13,479
  14,168
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,265
  7,779
  8,313
  8,868
  9,446
  10,046
  10,672
  11,323
  12,000
  12,707
  13,445
  14,214
  15,017
  15,855
  16,732
  17,648
  18,605
  19,607
  20,655
  21,752
  22,901
  24,104
  25,363
  26,682
  28,066
  29,516
  31,035
  32,628
  34,298
  36,051
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.620
  0.680
  0.730
  0.780
  0.830
  0.870
  0.910
  0.950
  0.980
  1.010
  1.040
  1.070
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.280
  1.290
  1.300
  1.320
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  795
  850
  908
  967
  1,029
  1,094
  1,161
  1,231
  1,304
  1,380
  1,555
  1,638
  1,725
  1,815
  1,909
  2,008
  2,111
  2,219
  2,332
  2,450
  2,573
  2,703
  2,838
  2,981
  3,130
  3,286
  3,449
  3,621
  3,801
  3,990
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  336
  351
  366
  381
  397
  414
  432
  450
  469
  489
  378
  400
  423
  446
  471
  497
  524
  552
  581
  612
  645
  678
  714
  751
  790
  831
  874
  918
  965
  1,015
Funds from operations, $m
  1,131
  1,201
  1,273
  1,348
  1,427
  1,508
  1,593
  1,681
  1,773
  1,869
  1,934
  2,038
  2,147
  2,261
  2,380
  2,505
  2,635
  2,771
  2,913
  3,062
  3,218
  3,381
  3,552
  3,732
  3,919
  4,116
  4,323
  4,539
  4,766
  5,004
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Cash from operations, $m
  1,136
  1,205
  1,278
  1,354
  1,432
  1,514
  1,599
  1,687
  1,780
  1,876
  1,941
  2,045
  2,155
  2,269
  2,388
  2,513
  2,643
  2,780
  2,923
  3,072
  3,229
  3,392
  3,564
  3,744
  3,932
  4,130
  4,337
  4,554
  4,782
  5,021
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -190
  -205
  -219
  -234
  -250
  -266
  -283
  -300
  -319
  -338
  -358
  -378
  -400
  -423
  -446
  -471
  -497
  -524
  -552
  -581
  -612
  -645
  -678
  -714
  -751
  -790
  -831
  -874
  -918
  -965
New CAPEX, $m
  -142
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -309
  -323
  -339
  -355
  -371
  -389
  -408
  -428
  -448
  -470
  -493
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -332
  -350
  -369
  -390
  -412
  -435
  -459
  -483
  -510
  -537
  -566
  -595
  -626
  -659
  -693
  -729
  -767
  -806
  -847
  -890
  -935
  -984
  -1,033
  -1,085
  -1,140
  -1,198
  -1,259
  -1,322
  -1,388
  -1,458
Free cash flow, $m
  804
  856
  909
  963
  1,020
  1,079
  1,140
  1,204
  1,270
  1,339
  1,376
  1,451
  1,529
  1,610
  1,695
  1,784
  1,877
  1,974
  2,076
  2,182
  2,293
  2,409
  2,531
  2,659
  2,792
  2,932
  3,079
  3,232
  3,393
  3,562
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  302
  312
  324
  337
  350
  365
  379
  395
  412
  429
  448
  467
  487
  509
  532
  556
  581
  608
  636
  666
  697
  730
  765
  801
  840
  880
  922
  967
  1,014
  1,064
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  302
  312
  324
  337
  350
  365
  379
  395
  412
  429
  448
  467
  487
  509
  532
  556
  581
  608
  636
  666
  697
  730
  765
  801
  840
  880
  922
  967
  1,014
  1,064
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,106
  1,168
  1,233
  1,300
  1,370
  1,443
  1,520
  1,599
  1,682
  1,768
  1,823
  1,918
  2,016
  2,119
  2,227
  2,340
  2,458
  2,582
  2,712
  2,848
  2,990
  3,139
  3,296
  3,460
  3,632
  3,812
  4,001
  4,199
  4,407
  4,626
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -191
  -202
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -256
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -344
  -360
  -376
  -394
  -412
  -431
  -451
  -473
  -495
  -519
  -544
  -570
  -597
  -626
  -657
  -689
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  38
  41
  44
  46
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  182
  192
Cash available for distribution, $m
  915
  966
  1,023
  1,082
  1,144
  1,207
  1,274
  1,343
  1,415
  1,490
  1,533
  1,615
  1,701
  1,790
  1,883
  1,980
  2,082
  2,189
  2,300
  2,417
  2,539
  2,667
  2,801
  2,941
  3,088
  3,242
  3,404
  3,573
  3,751
  3,937
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  877
  885
  890
  891
  886
  876
  861
  840
  813
  781
  728
  689
  647
  601
  553
  503
  453
  403
  354
  307
  263
  221
  184
  150
  120
  95
  73
  55
  41
  30
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Rockwell Automation, Inc. (Rockwell Automation) is a provider of industrial automation power, control and information solutions for manufacturers. The Company operates through two segments: Architecture & Software and Control Products & Solutions. The Architecture & Software segment contains various hardware, software and communication components of the Company's integrated control and information architecture capable of controlling the customer's industrial processes and connecting with their manufacturing enterprise. Architecture & Software has a portfolio of products, including Control platforms that perform multiple control disciplines and monitoring of applications, including discrete, batch and continuous process, drives control, motion control and machine safety control. The Control Products & Solutions segment portfolio includes low and medium voltage electro-mechanical and electronic motor starters, signaling devices, termination and protection devices, relays and timers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rockwell Automation (ROK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.7
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 8.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 21.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 46.7%
Total Debt to Equity 69.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Return On Total Capital 19.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20%
Return On Equity 35.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.2%
EBITDA Margin 19.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Operating Margin 16.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Net Profit Margin 13.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Effective Tax Rate 20.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.2%
Payout Ratio 47.3%

ROK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ROK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6311 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rockwell Automation. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Rockwell Automation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ROK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ROK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rockwell Automation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rockwell Automation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ROK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ROK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Rockwell Automation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rockwell Automation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ROK stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ROK are equal to 30.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rockwell Automation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ROK is equal to -1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2664 million for Rockwell Automation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 128 million for Rockwell Automation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rockwell Automation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $22.0 billion.

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