Intrinsic value of Rosehill Resources Cl A - ROSE

Previous Close

$4.26

  Intrinsic Value

$103.03

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$4.26

 
Intrinsic value

$103.03

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of ROSE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  122
  188
  282
  409
  577
  793
  1,065
  1,398
  1,799
  2,272
  2,821
  3,449
  4,158
  4,947
  5,817
  6,766
  7,794
  8,899
  10,078
  11,331
  12,655
  14,049
  15,513
  17,045
  18,645
  20,313
  22,050
  23,858
  25,738
  27,692
Variable operating expenses, $m
  71
  109
  163
  237
  334
  459
  616
  809
  1,042
  1,316
  1,634
  1,997
  2,407
  2,864
  3,368
  3,918
  4,513
  5,152
  5,835
  6,561
  7,327
  8,135
  8,982
  9,869
  10,795
  11,761
  12,767
  13,814
  14,902
  16,033
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
Total operating expenses, $m
  96
  134
  189
  263
  361
  486
  644
  838
  1,071
  1,346
  1,664
  2,028
  2,439
  2,897
  3,401
  3,952
  4,548
  5,188
  5,871
  6,598
  7,365
  8,174
  9,022
  9,909
  10,836
  11,803
  12,810
  13,858
  14,947
  16,079
Operating income, $m
  27
  54
  93
  146
  216
  307
  420
  560
  728
  927
  1,157
  1,421
  1,719
  2,050
  2,416
  2,815
  3,247
  3,711
  4,207
  4,733
  5,290
  5,876
  6,491
  7,135
  7,808
  8,510
  9,240
  10,000
  10,791
  11,612
EBITDA, $m
  85
  144
  227
  340
  490
  683
  926
  1,224
  1,583
  2,006
  2,498
  3,060
  3,694
  4,400
  5,179
  6,029
  6,949
  7,938
  8,994
  10,116
  11,302
  12,550
  13,861
  15,233
  16,665
  18,159
  19,715
  21,334
  23,018
  24,767
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  5
  17
  34
  59
  92
  136
  192
  263
  350
  454
  578
  721
  885
  1,070
  1,276
  1,502
  1,750
  2,018
  2,306
  2,614
  2,941
  3,286
  3,650
  4,031
  4,431
  4,848
  5,283
  5,737
  6,208
  6,698
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  37
  59
  87
  124
  171
  228
  297
  378
  472
  579
  700
  834
  980
  1,140
  1,312
  1,496
  1,693
  1,900
  2,119
  2,349
  2,590
  2,842
  3,104
  3,377
  3,661
  3,957
  4,263
  4,582
  4,914
Tax expense, $m
  6
  10
  16
  24
  34
  46
  62
  80
  102
  128
  156
  189
  225
  265
  308
  354
  404
  457
  513
  572
  634
  699
  767
  838
  912
  989
  1,068
  1,151
  1,237
  1,327
Net income, $m
  16
  27
  43
  64
  91
  125
  167
  217
  276
  345
  423
  511
  609
  716
  832
  958
  1,092
  1,236
  1,387
  1,547
  1,715
  1,891
  2,074
  2,266
  2,465
  2,673
  2,888
  3,112
  3,345
  3,587

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  767
  1,185
  1,773
  2,572
  3,629
  4,988
  6,696
  8,792
  11,313
  14,290
  17,745
  21,694
  26,149
  31,112
  36,582
  42,554
  49,019
  55,966
  63,384
  71,263
  79,591
  88,361
  97,565
  107,199
  117,262
  127,755
  138,682
  150,052
  161,873
  174,161
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  767
  1,185
  1,773
  2,572
  3,629
  4,988
  6,696
  8,792
  11,313
  14,290
  17,745
  21,694
  26,149
  31,112
  36,582
  42,554
  49,019
  55,966
  63,384
  71,263
  79,591
  88,361
  97,565
  107,199
  117,262
  127,755
  138,682
  150,052
  161,873
  174,161
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
  0.159
Average production assets, $m
  446
  689
  1,031
  1,496
  2,110
  2,901
  3,894
  5,114
  6,580
  8,311
  10,321
  12,618
  15,209
  18,096
  21,277
  24,750
  28,510
  32,551
  36,866
  41,448
  46,292
  51,393
  56,746
  62,349
  68,202
  74,305
  80,661
  87,273
  94,149
  101,296
Working capital, $m
  -136
  -210
  -313
  -455
  -642
  -882
  -1,184
  -1,555
  -2,000
  -2,527
  -3,137
  -3,836
  -4,623
  -5,501
  -6,468
  -7,524
  -8,667
  -9,895
  -11,207
  -12,600
  -14,072
  -15,623
  -17,250
  -18,954
  -20,733
  -22,588
  -24,520
  -26,530
  -28,621
  -30,793
Total debt, $m
  316
  637
  1,088
  1,702
  2,514
  3,558
  4,869
  6,479
  8,415
  10,701
  13,355
  16,388
  19,809
  23,621
  27,822
  32,408
  37,373
  42,709
  48,406
  54,457
  60,853
  67,588
  74,656
  82,055
  89,784
  97,842
  106,235
  114,967
  124,046
  133,482
Total liabilities, $m
  589
  910
  1,361
  1,975
  2,787
  3,831
  5,142
  6,752
  8,689
  10,974
  13,628
  16,661
  20,083
  23,894
  28,095
  32,682
  37,647
  42,982
  48,679
  54,730
  61,126
  67,861
  74,930
  82,329
  90,057
  98,116
  106,508
  115,240
  124,319
  133,755
Total equity, $m
  178
  275
  411
  597
  842
  1,157
  1,553
  2,040
  2,625
  3,315
  4,117
  5,033
  6,067
  7,218
  8,487
  9,873
  11,372
  12,984
  14,705
  16,533
  18,465
  20,500
  22,635
  24,870
  27,205
  29,639
  32,174
  34,812
  37,555
  40,405
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  767
  1,185
  1,772
  2,572
  3,629
  4,988
  6,695
  8,792
  11,314
  14,289
  17,745
  21,694
  26,150
  31,112
  36,582
  42,555
  49,019
  55,966
  63,384
  71,263
  79,591
  88,361
  97,565
  107,199
  117,262
  127,755
  138,682
  150,052
  161,874
  174,160
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.780
  2.320
  2.650
  2.850
  2.990
  3.070
  3.130
  3.180
  3.210
  3.230
  3.240
  3.260
  3.270
  3.270
  3.280
  3.280
  3.290
  3.290
  3.290
  3.290
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
  3.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232
  0.232

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  27
  43
  64
  91
  125
  167
  217
  276
  345
  423
  511
  609
  716
  832
  958
  1,092
  1,236
  1,387
  1,547
  1,715
  1,891
  2,074
  2,266
  2,465
  2,673
  2,888
  3,112
  3,345
  3,587
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  90
  134
  194
  274
  377
  506
  664
  855
  1,079
  1,340
  1,639
  1,975
  2,350
  2,763
  3,214
  3,703
  4,227
  4,788
  5,383
  6,012
  6,674
  7,370
  8,097
  8,857
  9,650
  10,475
  11,334
  12,227
  13,155
Funds from operations, $m
  74
  117
  177
  258
  365
  502
  672
  881
  1,131
  1,424
  1,763
  2,150
  2,584
  3,066
  3,595
  4,172
  4,795
  5,463
  6,175
  6,930
  7,727
  8,565
  9,444
  10,363
  11,323
  12,323
  13,364
  14,447
  15,572
  16,742
Change in working capital, $m
  -51
  -74
  -104
  -141
  -187
  -240
  -302
  -371
  -446
  -526
  -611
  -698
  -788
  -878
  -967
  -1,056
  -1,143
  -1,228
  -1,312
  -1,393
  -1,473
  -1,551
  -1,627
  -1,703
  -1,779
  -1,855
  -1,932
  -2,010
  -2,090
  -2,172
Cash from operations, $m
  125
  191
  281
  399
  552
  742
  974
  1,252
  1,576
  1,950
  2,374
  2,848
  3,371
  3,943
  4,563
  5,228
  5,938
  6,691
  7,487
  8,323
  9,199
  10,116
  11,071
  12,066
  13,102
  14,178
  15,296
  16,457
  17,662
  18,915
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -58
  -90
  -134
  -194
  -274
  -377
  -506
  -664
  -855
  -1,079
  -1,340
  -1,639
  -1,975
  -2,350
  -2,763
  -3,214
  -3,703
  -4,227
  -4,788
  -5,383
  -6,012
  -6,674
  -7,370
  -8,097
  -8,857
  -9,650
  -10,475
  -11,334
  -12,227
New CAPEX, $m
  -168
  -243
  -342
  -465
  -615
  -791
  -993
  -1,219
  -1,466
  -1,731
  -2,009
  -2,297
  -2,591
  -2,887
  -3,182
  -3,473
  -3,760
  -4,041
  -4,315
  -4,582
  -4,844
  -5,100
  -5,353
  -5,603
  -5,853
  -6,103
  -6,356
  -6,613
  -6,876
  -7,146
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -204
  -301
  -432
  -599
  -809
  -1,065
  -1,370
  -1,725
  -2,130
  -2,586
  -3,088
  -3,637
  -4,230
  -4,862
  -5,532
  -6,236
  -6,974
  -7,744
  -8,542
  -9,370
  -10,227
  -11,112
  -12,027
  -12,973
  -13,950
  -14,960
  -16,006
  -17,088
  -18,210
  -19,373
Free cash flow, $m
  -80
  -111
  -151
  -200
  -257
  -323
  -396
  -473
  -554
  -635
  -715
  -790
  -858
  -919
  -969
  -1,008
  -1,036
  -1,052
  -1,055
  -1,047
  -1,027
  -997
  -956
  -906
  -848
  -782
  -710
  -631
  -548
  -459
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  223
  321
  451
  614
  812
  1,044
  1,311
  1,610
  1,936
  2,286
  2,653
  3,033
  3,421
  3,812
  4,201
  4,586
  4,965
  5,335
  5,697
  6,051
  6,396
  6,735
  7,069
  7,399
  7,728
  8,059
  8,392
  8,732
  9,079
  9,437
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  51
  70
  93
  122
  154
  191
  230
  269
  309
  346
  379
  405
  425
  436
  437
  428
  407
  376
  334
  281
  217
  144
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  274
  391
  544
  736
  966
  1,235
  1,541
  1,879
  2,245
  2,632
  3,032
  3,438
  3,846
  4,248
  4,638
  5,014
  5,372
  5,711
  6,031
  6,332
  6,613
  6,879
  7,130
  7,399
  7,728
  8,059
  8,392
  8,732
  9,079
  9,437
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  195
  280
  394
  536
  709
  912
  1,145
  1,406
  1,691
  1,996
  2,317
  2,649
  2,988
  3,329
  3,669
  4,005
  4,336
  4,660
  4,976
  5,284
  5,586
  5,882
  6,173
  6,493
  6,880
  7,276
  7,682
  8,100
  8,532
  8,978
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -67
  -97
  -136
  -185
  -245
  -315
  -396
  -486
  -585
  -691
  -802
  -916
  -1,033
  -1,151
  -1,269
  -1,385
  -1,500
  -1,612
  -1,721
  -1,828
  -1,932
  -2,035
  -2,135
  -2,235
  -2,335
  -2,434
  -2,535
  -2,638
  -2,743
  -2,851
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  127
  183
  258
  351
  464
  597
  749
  920
  1,106
  1,306
  1,516
  1,733
  1,954
  2,177
  2,400
  2,620
  2,836
  3,048
  3,255
  3,456
  3,654
  3,847
  4,038
  4,257
  4,545
  4,842
  5,147
  5,463
  5,789
  6,127
Discount rate, %
  4.50
  4.73
  4.96
  5.21
  5.47
  5.74
  6.03
  6.33
  6.65
  6.98
  7.33
  7.70
  8.08
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.82
  10.31
  10.83
  11.37
  11.94
  12.54
  13.16
  13.82
  14.51
  15.24
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  122
  167
  223
  286
  355
  427
  497
  563
  620
  665
  696
  712
  712
  696
  667
  626
  577
  521
  461
  401
  342
  286
  235
  190
  154
  121
  94
  71
  52
  37
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  60.1
  38.5
  25.9
  18.2
  13.3
  10.0
  7.8
  6.3
  5.2
  4.3
  3.7
  3.3
  2.9
  2.6
  2.4
  2.3
  2.1
  2.0
  2.0
  1.9
  1.9
  1.9
  1.9
  1.9
  1.9
  1.9
  1.9
  1.9
  1.9
  1.9

Rosehill Resources Inc., formerly KLR Energy Acquisition Corp., is an oil and gas exploration company. The Company is focused on the Delaware Basin portion of the Permian Basin. It has nearly 5,000 net acres with approximately 80% held by production and drilling locations. Its drilling locations are located across ten distinct benches.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rosehill Resources Cl A (ROSE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -43.6
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -43.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -43.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84.6%
Total Debt to Equity 84.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Total Capital -1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Return On Equity -3.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ROSE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ROSE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $76.236 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rosehill Resources Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Rosehill Resources Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ROSE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.5%, whose default value for ROSE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rosehill Resources Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rosehill Resources Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ROSE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 57.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $24 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ROSE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Rosehill Resources Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rosehill Resources Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ROSE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ROSE are equal to 365.8%.

Life of production assets of 7.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rosehill Resources Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ROSE is equal to -111.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $110.61 million for Rosehill Resources Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 6.428 million for Rosehill Resources Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rosehill Resources Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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