Intrinsic value of Ross Stores, Inc. - ROST

Previous Close

$100.97

  Intrinsic Value

$72.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-28%

Previous close

$100.97

 
Intrinsic value

$72.21

 
Up/down potential

-28%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ROST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 37.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  15,068
  16,038
  17,048
  18,099
  19,194
  20,335
  21,525
  22,766
  24,061
  25,413
  26,826
  28,302
  29,845
  31,458
  33,146
  34,913
  36,762
  38,698
  40,726
  42,850
  45,076
  47,409
  49,854
  52,418
  55,105
  57,924
  60,880
  63,981
  67,233
  70,646
Variable operating expenses, $m
  12,145
  12,927
  13,741
  14,588
  15,471
  16,390
  17,349
  18,349
  19,393
  20,483
  21,622
  22,811
  24,055
  25,355
  26,716
  28,140
  29,630
  31,191
  32,825
  34,537
  36,331
  38,212
  40,182
  42,249
  44,415
  46,687
  49,069
  51,568
  54,190
  56,940
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  724
  739
  756
  772
  789
  807
  824
  843
  861
  880
  899
  919
  939
  960
  981
  1,003
  1,025
  1,047
  1,071
  1,094
  1,118
  1,143
  1,168
  1,194
  1,220
  1,247
  1,274
  1,302
  1,331
  1,360
Total operating expenses, $m
  12,869
  13,666
  14,497
  15,360
  16,260
  17,197
  18,173
  19,192
  20,254
  21,363
  22,521
  23,730
  24,994
  26,315
  27,697
  29,143
  30,655
  32,238
  33,896
  35,631
  37,449
  39,355
  41,350
  43,443
  45,635
  47,934
  50,343
  52,870
  55,521
  58,300
Operating income, $m
  2,200
  2,372
  2,552
  2,739
  2,934
  3,138
  3,351
  3,574
  3,807
  4,050
  4,305
  4,571
  4,850
  5,143
  5,449
  5,770
  6,107
  6,460
  6,830
  7,219
  7,627
  8,055
  8,504
  8,975
  9,471
  9,991
  10,537
  11,110
  11,712
  12,345
EBITDA, $m
  2,535
  2,729
  2,931
  3,142
  3,362
  3,591
  3,831
  4,081
  4,342
  4,616
  4,902
  5,201
  5,515
  5,843
  6,187
  6,548
  6,925
  7,322
  7,737
  8,173
  8,630
  9,110
  9,614
  10,143
  10,698
  11,280
  11,892
  12,535
  13,210
  13,918
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  21
  31
  41
  51
  62
  73
  85
  97
  110
  123
  137
  151
  166
  182
  198
  216
  234
  252
  272
  293
  315
  337
  361
  386
  412
  440
  468
  499
  530
  564
Earnings before tax, $m
  2,178
  2,341
  2,511
  2,688
  2,872
  3,065
  3,267
  3,477
  3,697
  3,927
  4,168
  4,420
  4,684
  4,961
  5,251
  5,555
  5,873
  6,208
  6,558
  6,926
  7,312
  7,717
  8,143
  8,589
  9,058
  9,551
  10,068
  10,611
  11,182
  11,782
Tax expense, $m
  588
  632
  678
  726
  776
  828
  882
  939
  998
  1,060
  1,125
  1,193
  1,265
  1,339
  1,418
  1,500
  1,586
  1,676
  1,771
  1,870
  1,974
  2,084
  2,199
  2,319
  2,446
  2,579
  2,718
  2,865
  3,019
  3,181
Net income, $m
  1,590
  1,709
  1,833
  1,962
  2,097
  2,238
  2,385
  2,538
  2,699
  2,867
  3,043
  3,227
  3,420
  3,621
  3,833
  4,055
  4,288
  4,531
  4,787
  5,056
  5,338
  5,634
  5,944
  6,270
  6,613
  6,972
  7,350
  7,746
  8,163
  8,601

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,100
  6,493
  6,902
  7,328
  7,771
  8,233
  8,715
  9,217
  9,741
  10,289
  10,861
  11,458
  12,083
  12,736
  13,420
  14,135
  14,883
  15,667
  16,488
  17,348
  18,249
  19,194
  20,184
  21,222
  22,310
  23,451
  24,648
  25,903
  27,220
  28,601
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,100
  6,493
  6,902
  7,328
  7,771
  8,233
  8,715
  9,217
  9,741
  10,289
  10,861
  11,458
  12,083
  12,736
  13,420
  14,135
  14,883
  15,667
  16,488
  17,348
  18,249
  19,194
  20,184
  21,222
  22,310
  23,451
  24,648
  25,903
  27,220
  28,601
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
  2.470
Average production assets, $m
  2,516
  2,678
  2,847
  3,023
  3,205
  3,396
  3,595
  3,802
  4,018
  4,244
  4,480
  4,726
  4,984
  5,254
  5,535
  5,830
  6,139
  6,463
  6,801
  7,156
  7,528
  7,917
  8,326
  8,754
  9,203
  9,673
  10,167
  10,685
  11,228
  11,798
Working capital, $m
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
Total debt, $m
  573
  757
  947
  1,146
  1,353
  1,569
  1,794
  2,029
  2,273
  2,529
  2,796
  3,075
  3,367
  3,672
  3,991
  4,325
  4,675
  5,041
  5,424
  5,826
  6,247
  6,688
  7,150
  7,635
  8,143
  8,676
  9,235
  9,821
  10,436
  11,081
Total liabilities, $m
  2,849
  3,032
  3,223
  3,422
  3,629
  3,845
  4,070
  4,304
  4,549
  4,805
  5,072
  5,351
  5,643
  5,948
  6,267
  6,601
  6,951
  7,317
  7,700
  8,102
  8,523
  8,964
  9,426
  9,911
  10,419
  10,952
  11,510
  12,097
  12,712
  13,357
Total equity, $m
  3,251
  3,461
  3,679
  3,906
  4,142
  4,388
  4,645
  4,913
  5,192
  5,484
  5,789
  6,107
  6,440
  6,788
  7,153
  7,534
  7,933
  8,351
  8,788
  9,247
  9,727
  10,230
  10,758
  11,311
  11,891
  12,499
  13,137
  13,806
  14,508
  15,245
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,100
  6,493
  6,902
  7,328
  7,771
  8,233
  8,715
  9,217
  9,741
  10,289
  10,861
  11,458
  12,083
  12,736
  13,420
  14,135
  14,884
  15,668
  16,488
  17,349
  18,250
  19,194
  20,184
  21,222
  22,310
  23,451
  24,647
  25,903
  27,220
  28,602
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.180
  0.220
  0.260
  0.290
  0.330
  0.360
  0.390
  0.410
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533
  0.533

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,590
  1,709
  1,833
  1,962
  2,097
  2,238
  2,385
  2,538
  2,699
  2,867
  3,043
  3,227
  3,420
  3,621
  3,833
  4,055
  4,288
  4,531
  4,787
  5,056
  5,338
  5,634
  5,944
  6,270
  6,613
  6,972
  7,350
  7,746
  8,163
  8,601
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  336
  357
  380
  403
  427
  453
  479
  507
  536
  566
  597
  630
  665
  700
  738
  777
  819
  862
  907
  954
  1,004
  1,056
  1,110
  1,167
  1,227
  1,290
  1,356
  1,425
  1,497
  1,573
Funds from operations, $m
  1,926
  2,066
  2,212
  2,365
  2,524
  2,690
  2,864
  3,045
  3,235
  3,433
  3,640
  3,857
  4,084
  4,322
  4,571
  4,832
  5,106
  5,393
  5,694
  6,010
  6,341
  6,689
  7,054
  7,437
  7,840
  8,262
  8,705
  9,171
  9,660
  10,174
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  1,925
  2,065
  2,211
  2,364
  2,523
  2,689
  2,863
  3,044
  3,233
  3,431
  3,639
  3,856
  4,083
  4,320
  4,569
  4,831
  5,104
  5,391
  5,692
  6,008
  6,339
  6,687
  7,052
  7,435
  7,837
  8,259
  8,702
  9,168
  9,657
  10,170
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -314
  -336
  -357
  -380
  -403
  -427
  -453
  -479
  -507
  -536
  -566
  -597
  -630
  -665
  -700
  -738
  -777
  -819
  -862
  -907
  -954
  -1,004
  -1,056
  -1,110
  -1,167
  -1,227
  -1,290
  -1,356
  -1,425
  -1,497
New CAPEX, $m
  -161
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -246
  -258
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -309
  -323
  -339
  -355
  -372
  -390
  -408
  -428
  -449
  -471
  -494
  -518
  -543
  -570
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -475
  -498
  -526
  -556
  -586
  -618
  -652
  -686
  -723
  -762
  -802
  -843
  -888
  -934
  -982
  -1,033
  -1,086
  -1,142
  -1,201
  -1,262
  -1,326
  -1,394
  -1,464
  -1,538
  -1,616
  -1,698
  -1,784
  -1,874
  -1,968
  -2,067
Free cash flow, $m
  1,450
  1,568
  1,686
  1,809
  1,937
  2,071
  2,211
  2,357
  2,510
  2,670
  2,837
  3,012
  3,195
  3,386
  3,587
  3,797
  4,018
  4,249
  4,492
  4,746
  5,013
  5,294
  5,588
  5,897
  6,221
  6,561
  6,919
  7,294
  7,689
  8,103
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  383
  402
  421
  441
  462
  485
  508
  533
  559
  586
  615
  645
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  350
  366
  383
  402
  421
  441
  462
  485
  508
  533
  559
  586
  615
  645
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,626
  1,751
  1,877
  2,008
  2,144
  2,287
  2,436
  2,592
  2,755
  2,926
  3,104
  3,291
  3,486
  3,691
  3,906
  4,131
  4,368
  4,615
  4,875
  5,148
  5,434
  5,735
  6,050
  6,381
  6,729
  7,094
  7,478
  7,881
  8,304
  8,748
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -202
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -279
  -292
  -305
  -319
  -333
  -348
  -364
  -381
  -399
  -418
  -438
  -458
  -480
  -503
  -528
  -553
  -580
  -608
  -638
  -669
  -702
  -736
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,423
  1,542
  1,659
  1,781
  1,908
  2,041
  2,179
  2,324
  2,476
  2,634
  2,799
  2,972
  3,153
  3,343
  3,542
  3,750
  3,969
  4,198
  4,438
  4,690
  4,954
  5,231
  5,522
  5,828
  6,149
  6,486
  6,840
  7,212
  7,602
  8,012
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,365
  1,411
  1,443
  1,466
  1,479
  1,481
  1,472
  1,453
  1,422
  1,381
  1,329
  1,268
  1,199
  1,122
  1,040
  953
  864
  773
  683
  596
  512
  434
  362
  297
  239
  189
  147
  112
  83
  60
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores-Ross Dress for Less (Ross) and dd's DISCOUNTS. The Company is the off-price apparel and home fashion chain in the United States, with 1,340 locations in 36 states, the District of Columbia and Guam, as of January 28, 2017. The Company offers in-season, name brand and designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at savings of 20% to 60% off department and specialty store regular prices every day. The Company also operated 193 dd's DISCOUNTS stores in 15 states as of January 28, 2017. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated a total of 1,533 stores consisted of 1,340 Ross stores and 193 dd's DISCOUNTS stores. As of January 28, 2017, the Company owned and operated six distribution processing facilities-three in California, one in Pennsylvania, and two in South Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.4
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book 14.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -18.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 14.4%
Total Debt to Equity 14.4%
Interest Coverage 100
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 22.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Return On Total Capital 37.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Return On Equity 42.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 43%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
EBITDA Margin 16.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Operating Margin 14%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Effective Tax Rate 37.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.3%
Payout Ratio 19.2%

ROST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ROST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $14135 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ross Stores, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Ross Stores, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ROST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ROST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ross Stores, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ross Stores, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ROST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $708 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ROST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ross Stores, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ross Stores, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ROST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ROST are equal to 16.7%.

Life of production assets of 7.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ross Stores, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ROST is equal to 0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3049.308 million for Ross Stores, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 370.634 million for Ross Stores, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ross Stores, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $37.4 billion.

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