Intrinsic value of Ross Stores - ROST

Previous Close

$86.59

  Intrinsic Value

$63.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

Previous close

$86.59

 
Intrinsic value

$63.07

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ROST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 33.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
Revenue, $m
  13,871
  14,914
  15,998
  17,124
  18,295
  19,512
  20,778
  22,095
  23,466
  24,894
  26,382
  27,933
  29,550
  31,238
  33,000
  34,840
  36,763
  38,773
  40,875
  43,073
  45,373
  47,781
  50,302
  52,942
  55,707
  58,604
  61,640
  64,823
  68,159
  71,657
Variable operating expenses, $m
  11,207
  12,050
  12,926
  13,836
  14,782
  15,766
  16,789
  17,853
  18,961
  20,114
  21,317
  22,570
  23,877
  25,240
  26,664
  28,151
  29,705
  31,329
  33,027
  34,803
  36,662
  38,607
  40,644
  42,777
  45,011
  47,352
  49,805
  52,377
  55,072
  57,899
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  701
  717
  732
  748
  765
  782
  799
  816
  834
  853
  872
  891
  910
  930
  951
  972
  993
  1,015
  1,037
  1,060
  1,083
  1,107
  1,132
  1,156
  1,182
  1,208
  1,235
  1,262
  1,289
  1,318
Total operating expenses, $m
  11,908
  12,767
  13,658
  14,584
  15,547
  16,548
  17,588
  18,669
  19,795
  20,967
  22,189
  23,461
  24,787
  26,170
  27,615
  29,123
  30,698
  32,344
  34,064
  35,863
  37,745
  39,714
  41,776
  43,933
  46,193
  48,560
  51,040
  53,639
  56,361
  59,217
Operating income, $m
  1,962
  2,147
  2,339
  2,539
  2,748
  2,965
  3,190
  3,426
  3,671
  3,927
  4,194
  4,472
  4,763
  5,067
  5,385
  5,718
  6,065
  6,429
  6,811
  7,210
  7,628
  8,067
  8,526
  9,008
  9,514
  10,044
  10,600
  11,184
  11,797
  12,440
EBITDA, $m
  2,215
  2,418
  2,630
  2,851
  3,081
  3,320
  3,569
  3,828
  4,098
  4,380
  4,674
  4,981
  5,301
  5,636
  5,986
  6,352
  6,735
  7,135
  7,555
  7,994
  8,454
  8,936
  9,442
  9,972
  10,528
  11,111
  11,722
  12,364
  13,038
  13,744
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  21
  32
  43
  55
  67
  80
  93
  106
  120
  135
  151
  166
  183
  201
  219
  238
  257
  278
  300
  322
  346
  370
  396
  423
  452
  482
  513
  545
  579
  615
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,941
  2,115
  2,296
  2,484
  2,681
  2,885
  3,098
  3,320
  3,551
  3,792
  4,043
  4,306
  4,580
  4,867
  5,167
  5,480
  5,808
  6,151
  6,511
  6,888
  7,282
  7,696
  8,130
  8,585
  9,062
  9,563
  10,088
  10,639
  11,218
  11,825
Tax expense, $m
  524
  571
  620
  671
  724
  779
  836
  896
  959
  1,024
  1,092
  1,163
  1,237
  1,314
  1,395
  1,480
  1,568
  1,661
  1,758
  1,860
  1,966
  2,078
  2,195
  2,318
  2,447
  2,582
  2,724
  2,873
  3,029
  3,193
Net income, $m
  1,417
  1,544
  1,676
  1,814
  1,957
  2,106
  2,261
  2,423
  2,592
  2,768
  2,952
  3,143
  3,344
  3,553
  3,772
  4,000
  4,240
  4,491
  4,753
  5,028
  5,316
  5,618
  5,935
  6,267
  6,615
  6,981
  7,364
  7,767
  8,189
  8,632

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,725
  6,155
  6,602
  7,067
  7,550
  8,053
  8,575
  9,119
  9,685
  10,274
  10,888
  11,528
  12,196
  12,892
  13,620
  14,379
  15,173
  16,002
  16,869
  17,777
  18,726
  19,720
  20,760
  21,850
  22,991
  24,187
  25,440
  26,753
  28,130
  29,574
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,725
  6,155
  6,602
  7,067
  7,550
  8,053
  8,575
  9,119
  9,685
  10,274
  10,888
  11,528
  12,196
  12,892
  13,620
  14,379
  15,173
  16,002
  16,869
  17,777
  18,726
  19,720
  20,760
  21,850
  22,991
  24,187
  25,440
  26,753
  28,130
  29,574
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
  2.423
Average production assets, $m
  2,524
  2,714
  2,912
  3,117
  3,330
  3,551
  3,782
  4,021
  4,271
  4,531
  4,801
  5,084
  5,378
  5,685
  6,006
  6,341
  6,691
  7,057
  7,439
  7,839
  8,258
  8,696
  9,155
  9,635
  10,139
  10,666
  11,219
  11,798
  12,405
  13,042
Working capital, $m
  527
  567
  608
  651
  695
  741
  790
  840
  892
  946
  1,003
  1,061
  1,123
  1,187
  1,254
  1,324
  1,397
  1,473
  1,553
  1,637
  1,724
  1,816
  1,911
  2,012
  2,117
  2,227
  2,342
  2,463
  2,590
  2,723
Total debt, $m
  594
  802
  1,018
  1,242
  1,474
  1,717
  1,968
  2,230
  2,503
  2,787
  3,083
  3,392
  3,713
  4,049
  4,400
  4,766
  5,148
  5,548
  5,966
  6,404
  6,861
  7,340
  7,841
  8,367
  8,917
  9,493
  10,097
  10,730
  11,394
  12,090
Total liabilities, $m
  2,759
  2,967
  3,182
  3,406
  3,639
  3,881
  4,133
  4,395
  4,668
  4,952
  5,248
  5,557
  5,878
  6,214
  6,565
  6,931
  7,313
  7,713
  8,131
  8,568
  9,026
  9,505
  10,006
  10,532
  11,082
  11,658
  12,262
  12,895
  13,559
  14,254
Total equity, $m
  2,965
  3,188
  3,420
  3,661
  3,911
  4,171
  4,442
  4,724
  5,017
  5,322
  5,640
  5,972
  6,317
  6,678
  7,055
  7,448
  7,859
  8,289
  8,738
  9,208
  9,700
  10,215
  10,754
  11,318
  11,909
  12,529
  13,178
  13,858
  14,571
  15,319
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,724
  6,155
  6,602
  7,067
  7,550
  8,052
  8,575
  9,119
  9,685
  10,274
  10,888
  11,529
  12,195
  12,892
  13,620
  14,379
  15,172
  16,002
  16,869
  17,776
  18,726
  19,720
  20,760
  21,850
  22,991
  24,187
  25,440
  26,753
  28,130
  29,573
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.200
  0.250
  0.300
  0.340
  0.380
  0.410
  0.440
  0.470
  0.500
  0.520
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518
  0.518

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1,417
  1,544
  1,676
  1,814
  1,957
  2,106
  2,261
  2,423
  2,592
  2,768
  2,952
  3,143
  3,344
  3,553
  3,772
  4,000
  4,240
  4,491
  4,753
  5,028
  5,316
  5,618
  5,935
  6,267
  6,615
  6,981
  7,364
  7,767
  8,189
  8,632
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  252
  271
  291
  312
  333
  355
  378
  402
  427
  453
  480
  508
  538
  569
  601
  634
  669
  706
  744
  784
  826
  870
  915
  964
  1,014
  1,067
  1,122
  1,180
  1,240
  1,304
Funds from operations, $m
  1,669
  1,815
  1,967
  2,125
  2,290
  2,461
  2,640
  2,825
  3,019
  3,221
  3,432
  3,652
  3,881
  4,121
  4,372
  4,635
  4,909
  5,196
  5,497
  5,812
  6,142
  6,488
  6,850
  7,230
  7,629
  8,047
  8,486
  8,946
  9,429
  9,936
Change in working capital, $m
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
Cash from operations, $m
  1,631
  1,776
  1,926
  2,083
  2,245
  2,415
  2,591
  2,775
  2,967
  3,167
  3,375
  3,593
  3,820
  4,057
  4,305
  4,565
  4,836
  5,120
  5,417
  5,728
  6,055
  6,396
  6,755
  7,130
  7,524
  7,937
  8,371
  8,825
  9,303
  9,804
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -234
  -252
  -271
  -291
  -312
  -333
  -355
  -378
  -402
  -427
  -453
  -480
  -508
  -538
  -569
  -601
  -634
  -669
  -706
  -744
  -784
  -826
  -870
  -915
  -964
  -1,014
  -1,067
  -1,122
  -1,180
  -1,240
New CAPEX, $m
  -189
  -190
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -222
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -335
  -350
  -366
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -438
  -459
  -480
  -503
  -527
  -553
  -579
  -607
  -637
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -423
  -442
  -468
  -496
  -525
  -555
  -585
  -618
  -652
  -687
  -724
  -762
  -802
  -845
  -890
  -936
  -984
  -1,035
  -1,088
  -1,144
  -1,203
  -1,264
  -1,329
  -1,395
  -1,467
  -1,541
  -1,620
  -1,701
  -1,787
  -1,877
Free cash flow, $m
  1,208
  1,333
  1,457
  1,586
  1,721
  1,860
  2,006
  2,157
  2,315
  2,480
  2,651
  2,830
  3,017
  3,212
  3,416
  3,629
  3,852
  4,085
  4,329
  4,584
  4,852
  5,132
  5,426
  5,734
  6,057
  6,396
  6,751
  7,124
  7,516
  7,926
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  198
  207
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
  273
  284
  296
  309
  322
  336
  351
  366
  382
  400
  418
  437
  458
  479
  501
  525
  550
  576
  604
  633
  664
  696
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  198
  207
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
  273
  284
  296
  309
  322
  336
  351
  366
  382
  400
  418
  437
  458
  479
  501
  525
  550
  576
  604
  633
  664
  696
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,406
  1,541
  1,673
  1,810
  1,954
  2,103
  2,258
  2,419
  2,588
  2,764
  2,947
  3,139
  3,339
  3,548
  3,767
  3,995
  4,234
  4,485
  4,747
  5,022
  5,310
  5,611
  5,928
  6,259
  6,607
  6,972
  7,355
  7,757
  8,179
  8,622
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -217
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -282
  -293
  -305
  -318
  -332
  -346
  -361
  -377
  -393
  -411
  -430
  -449
  -470
  -492
  -515
  -539
  -564
  -591
  -619
  -649
  -680
  -713
  -748
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  168
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  334
  352
  370
  389
  409
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,189
  1,318
  1,441
  1,570
  1,703
  1,842
  1,987
  2,138
  2,295
  2,459
  2,629
  2,807
  2,993
  3,187
  3,390
  3,602
  3,823
  4,055
  4,298
  4,552
  4,818
  5,097
  5,389
  5,695
  6,016
  6,353
  6,706
  7,077
  7,466
  7,874
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,140
  1,206
  1,254
  1,292
  1,320
  1,337
  1,342
  1,336
  1,318
  1,289
  1,249
  1,198
  1,138
  1,070
  995
  915
  832
  747
  662
  578
  498
  423
  353
  290
  234
  185
  144
  109
  81
  59
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ross Stores, Inc. and its subsidiaries operate two brands of off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores-Ross Dress for Less (Ross) and dd's DISCOUNTS. The Company is the off-price apparel and home fashion chain in the United States, with 1,340 locations in 36 states, the District of Columbia and Guam, as of January 28, 2017. The Company offers in-season, name brand and designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home fashions for the entire family at savings of 20% to 60% off department and specialty store regular prices every day. The Company also operated 193 dd's DISCOUNTS stores in 15 states as of January 28, 2017. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated a total of 1,533 stores consisted of 1,340 Ross stores and 193 dd's DISCOUNTS stores. As of January 28, 2017, the Company owned and operated six distribution processing facilities-three in California, one in Pennsylvania, and two in South Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ross Stores (ROST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.4
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 12.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 26.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -18.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 14.4%
Total Debt to Equity 14.4%
Interest Coverage 100
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 22.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Return On Total Capital 37.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Return On Equity 42.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 43%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
EBITDA Margin 16.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Operating Margin 14%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Effective Tax Rate 37.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.3%
Payout Ratio 19.2%

ROST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ROST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12867 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ross Stores. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ross Stores. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ROST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ROST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ross Stores, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ross Stores.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ROST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $686 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ROST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Ross Stores.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ross Stores. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ROST stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ROST are equal to 18.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ross Stores operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ROST is equal to 3.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2748 million for Ross Stores - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 392 million for Ross Stores is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ross Stores at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $33.9 billion.

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