Intrinsic value of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - RRGB

Previous Close

$33.22

  Intrinsic Value

$35.94

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  Rating & Target

hold

+8%

Previous close

$33.22

 
Intrinsic value

$35.94

 
Up/down potential

+8%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of RRGB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,409
  1,441
  1,478
  1,520
  1,566
  1,616
  1,671
  1,731
  1,795
  1,864
  1,938
  2,016
  2,100
  2,189
  2,283
  2,383
  2,489
  2,601
  2,720
  2,845
  2,976
  3,116
  3,262
  3,417
  3,579
  3,750
  3,931
  4,120
  4,320
  4,530
Variable operating expenses, $m
  949
  971
  995
  1,023
  1,053
  1,087
  1,124
  1,163
  1,206
  1,252
  1,287
  1,339
  1,395
  1,454
  1,517
  1,583
  1,653
  1,728
  1,806
  1,889
  1,977
  2,069
  2,167
  2,269
  2,377
  2,491
  2,611
  2,737
  2,869
  3,009
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  429
  439
  448
  458
  468
  479
  489
  500
  511
  522
  534
  545
  557
  570
  582
  595
  608
  621
  635
  649
  663
  678
  693
  708
  724
  740
  756
  772
  789
  807
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,378
  1,410
  1,443
  1,481
  1,521
  1,566
  1,613
  1,663
  1,717
  1,774
  1,821
  1,884
  1,952
  2,024
  2,099
  2,178
  2,261
  2,349
  2,441
  2,538
  2,640
  2,747
  2,860
  2,977
  3,101
  3,231
  3,367
  3,509
  3,658
  3,816
Operating income, $m
  30
  32
  34
  39
  44
  51
  59
  68
  78
  90
  117
  132
  148
  165
  185
  205
  228
  252
  278
  306
  336
  368
  403
  439
  478
  520
  564
  611
  661
  714
EBITDA, $m
  130
  133
  138
  145
  153
  163
  174
  187
  201
  217
  235
  255
  276
  299
  324
  351
  380
  411
  444
  480
  518
  558
  601
  647
  696
  748
  804
  862
  924
  990
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  16
  18
  22
  26
  32
  39
  47
  56
  67
  92
  105
  120
  136
  153
  172
  192
  214
  238
  264
  291
  321
  352
  386
  422
  460
  501
  544
  590
  639
Tax expense, $m
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  13
  15
  18
  25
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  52
  58
  64
  71
  79
  87
  95
  104
  114
  124
  135
  147
  159
  173
Net income, $m
  11
  12
  13
  16
  19
  23
  28
  34
  41
  49
  67
  77
  88
  99
  112
  126
  140
  157
  174
  193
  213
  234
  257
  282
  308
  336
  365
  397
  431
  467

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  929
  950
  974
  1,002
  1,032
  1,065
  1,102
  1,141
  1,183
  1,229
  1,277
  1,329
  1,384
  1,443
  1,505
  1,571
  1,641
  1,715
  1,793
  1,875
  1,962
  2,054
  2,150
  2,252
  2,359
  2,472
  2,591
  2,716
  2,848
  2,986
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  929
  950
  974
  1,002
  1,032
  1,065
  1,102
  1,141
  1,183
  1,229
  1,277
  1,329
  1,384
  1,443
  1,505
  1,571
  1,641
  1,715
  1,793
  1,875
  1,962
  2,054
  2,150
  2,252
  2,359
  2,472
  2,591
  2,716
  2,848
  2,986
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.516
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.518
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
  1.517
Average production assets, $m
  730
  746
  766
  787
  811
  837
  866
  897
  930
  965
  1,004
  1,044
  1,088
  1,134
  1,183
  1,235
  1,289
  1,347
  1,409
  1,474
  1,542
  1,614
  1,690
  1,770
  1,854
  1,943
  2,036
  2,134
  2,238
  2,346
Working capital, $m
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
Total debt, $m
  287
  300
  314
  329
  347
  366
  387
  409
  434
  460
  488
  518
  549
  583
  619
  657
  697
  739
  784
  832
  882
  934
  990
  1,048
  1,110
  1,175
  1,243
  1,315
  1,391
  1,470
Total liabilities, $m
  534
  546
  560
  576
  593
  613
  633
  656
  680
  706
  734
  764
  796
  830
  865
  903
  944
  986
  1,031
  1,078
  1,128
  1,181
  1,236
  1,295
  1,357
  1,422
  1,490
  1,562
  1,637
  1,717
Total equity, $m
  395
  404
  414
  426
  439
  453
  468
  485
  503
  522
  543
  565
  588
  613
  640
  668
  697
  729
  762
  797
  834
  873
  914
  957
  1,003
  1,051
  1,101
  1,154
  1,210
  1,269
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  929
  950
  974
  1,002
  1,032
  1,066
  1,101
  1,141
  1,183
  1,228
  1,277
  1,329
  1,384
  1,443
  1,505
  1,571
  1,641
  1,715
  1,793
  1,875
  1,962
  2,054
  2,150
  2,252
  2,360
  2,473
  2,591
  2,716
  2,847
  2,986
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  11
  12
  13
  16
  19
  23
  28
  34
  41
  49
  67
  77
  88
  99
  112
  126
  140
  157
  174
  193
  213
  234
  257
  282
  308
  336
  365
  397
  431
  467
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  99
  101
  104
  106
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  127
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  251
  263
  276
Funds from operations, $m
  111
  113
  117
  122
  128
  135
  144
  153
  164
  176
  185
  200
  215
  233
  251
  271
  292
  315
  340
  366
  394
  424
  456
  490
  526
  564
  605
  648
  694
  743
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from operations, $m
  112
  115
  119
  124
  130
  138
  147
  156
  167
  180
  189
  204
  220
  237
  256
  276
  298
  321
  346
  373
  401
  431
  464
  498
  535
  573
  615
  658
  705
  754
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -251
  -263
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -354
  -372
Free cash flow, $m
  14
  12
  12
  12
  14
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  38
  45
  54
  63
  74
  85
  98
  111
  126
  142
  159
  178
  198
  219
  242
  267
  293
  320
  350
  382
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  24
  26
  28
  31
  36
  40
  46
  53
  61
  65
  75
  85
  97
  109
  123
  138
  154
  171
  189
  209
  231
  253
  278
  304
  331
  361
  392
  426
  461
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  17
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  25
  30
  35
  41
  45
  53
  62
  72
  83
  95
  108
  122
  138
  154
  172
  192
  212
  234
  258
  283
  310
  339
  370
  403
Discount rate, %
  4.50
  4.73
  4.96
  5.21
  5.47
  5.74
  6.03
  6.33
  6.65
  6.98
  7.33
  7.70
  8.08
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.82
  10.31
  10.83
  11.37
  11.94
  12.54
  13.16
  13.82
  14.51
  15.24
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  17
  14
  13
  14
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
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Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
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Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, primarily develops, operates, and franchises full-service restaurants in North America and focuses on serving selection of gourmet burgers. The Company's menu features a line of gourmet burgers, which it makes from ground beef, as well as its line of Red's Tavern Double Burgers and its Red Robin's line of half-pound Angus beef burgers with various toppings. The Company also offers burgers made from chicken breasts, fish fillets, turkey patties, as well as vegetarian and vegan options. The Company offered a selection of buns, including ciabatta, gluten free, sesame, onion, whole grain, jalapeno and lettuce wraps a range of toppings, including fresh guacamole, house made barbeque sauces, aiolis, grilled pineapple, crispy onion straws, sauteed mushrooms, fried jalapenos, bruschetta salsa, coleslaw, eight different cheese choices and a fried egg, as of December 25, 2016.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.5
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 99.7%
Total Debt to Equity 99.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 1.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Equity 3.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Operating Margin 0.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Effective Tax Rate -140%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

RRGB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RRGB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1380.929 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RRGB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.5%, whose default value for RRGB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RRGB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $420 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RRGB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RRGB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RRGB are equal to 51.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Red Robin Gourmet Burgers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RRGB is equal to -5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $387.435 million for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.985 million for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Red Robin Gourmet Burgers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Earnings: Revenue Falls Again   [Nov-07-18 02:43PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Red Robin sees both revenue and sales dip in Q3   [04:57PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Red Robin: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Are Heading Still Lower and Lower   [Oct-25-18 02:28PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Red Robin announces new offerings to get customers back into restaurants   [Oct-01-18 01:51PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Target Slays Expectations   [Aug-23-18 03:12PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Four stocks to watch in today's blitz   [01:53PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Red Robin: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Earnings: What to Watch   [Aug-16-18 06:38PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Red Robin Stock Plunged Today   [12:37PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Latest consumer satisfaction survey: Red Robin soars, Chipotle is 'meh'   [Jul-09-18 09:47AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Teachers! Get Your Free Red Robin on June 5   [Jun-01-18 02:20PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Jim Cramer Weighs In On Total, Roku And More   [May-25-18 07:26AM  Benzinga]
▶ Target and Red Robin sink while Lowe's and Tiffany jump   [May-23-18 04:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Red Robin Slumps After Earnings Miss   [04:34PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Red Robin Posts Q1 Earnings and Revenue Miss   [May-22-18 07:04PM  Zacks]
▶ Red Robin plunges on earnings   [04:25PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Red Robin: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:21PM  Associated Press]

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