Intrinsic value of Rayonier Advanced Materials - RYAM

Previous Close

$17.08

  Intrinsic Value

$16.85

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-1%

Previous close

$17.08

 
Intrinsic value

$16.85

 
Up/down potential

-1%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of RYAM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.70
  10.13
  9.62
  9.16
  8.74
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.45
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.51
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  1,064
  1,172
  1,284
  1,402
  1,524
  1,652
  1,785
  1,922
  2,066
  2,215
  2,369
  2,530
  2,697
  2,871
  3,052
  3,241
  3,437
  3,642
  3,855
  4,077
  4,309
  4,552
  4,805
  5,069
  5,346
  5,635
  5,938
  6,254
  6,586
  6,932
Variable operating expenses, $m
  895
  985
  1,079
  1,178
  1,280
  1,387
  1,497
  1,613
  1,732
  1,857
  1,980
  2,115
  2,254
  2,400
  2,551
  2,709
  2,873
  3,044
  3,222
  3,408
  3,602
  3,804
  4,016
  4,237
  4,468
  4,710
  4,962
  5,227
  5,504
  5,794
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  895
  985
  1,079
  1,178
  1,280
  1,387
  1,497
  1,613
  1,732
  1,857
  1,980
  2,115
  2,254
  2,400
  2,551
  2,709
  2,873
  3,044
  3,222
  3,408
  3,602
  3,804
  4,016
  4,237
  4,468
  4,710
  4,962
  5,227
  5,504
  5,794
Operating income, $m
  169
  186
  205
  224
  244
  265
  287
  310
  333
  358
  389
  416
  443
  472
  501
  532
  565
  598
  633
  670
  708
  748
  789
  833
  878
  926
  975
  1,027
  1,082
  1,139
EBITDA, $m
  300
  331
  362
  396
  430
  466
  504
  543
  583
  625
  669
  714
  761
  810
  862
  915
  970
  1,028
  1,088
  1,151
  1,216
  1,285
  1,356
  1,431
  1,509
  1,590
  1,676
  1,765
  1,859
  1,957
Interest expense (income), $m
  35
  67
  78
  90
  102
  115
  128
  142
  157
  172
  188
  204
  221
  238
  257
  276
  296
  316
  338
  360
  383
  408
  433
  459
  487
  516
  546
  578
  611
  646
  682
Earnings before tax, $m
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  185
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
  286
  300
  315
  330
  345
  362
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
Tax expense, $m
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
Net income, $m
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,923
  3,219
  3,528
  3,851
  4,188
  4,538
  4,903
  5,281
  5,675
  6,084
  6,509
  6,951
  7,410
  7,888
  8,386
  8,903
  9,443
  10,004
  10,590
  11,201
  11,839
  12,505
  13,200
  13,927
  14,687
  15,481
  16,312
  17,182
  18,092
  19,045
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,923
  3,219
  3,528
  3,851
  4,188
  4,538
  4,903
  5,281
  5,675
  6,084
  6,509
  6,951
  7,410
  7,888
  8,386
  8,903
  9,443
  10,004
  10,590
  11,201
  11,839
  12,505
  13,200
  13,927
  14,687
  15,481
  16,312
  17,182
  18,092
  19,045
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
  0.364
Average production assets, $m
  1,255
  1,382
  1,515
  1,654
  1,799
  1,949
  2,106
  2,268
  2,438
  2,613
  2,796
  2,986
  3,183
  3,388
  3,602
  3,824
  4,056
  4,297
  4,549
  4,811
  5,085
  5,371
  5,670
  5,982
  6,308
  6,649
  7,006
  7,380
  7,771
  8,180
Working capital, $m
  160
  176
  193
  210
  229
  248
  268
  288
  310
  332
  355
  380
  405
  431
  458
  486
  516
  546
  578
  612
  646
  683
  721
  760
  802
  845
  891
  938
  988
  1,040
Total debt, $m
  1,447
  1,665
  1,893
  2,131
  2,379
  2,638
  2,906
  3,185
  3,475
  3,777
  4,090
  4,416
  4,755
  5,107
  5,473
  5,855
  6,252
  6,666
  7,098
  7,548
  8,018
  8,509
  9,022
  9,557
  10,117
  10,703
  11,315
  11,956
  12,627
  13,329
Total liabilities, $m
  2,154
  2,372
  2,600
  2,838
  3,086
  3,345
  3,613
  3,892
  4,182
  4,484
  4,797
  5,123
  5,462
  5,814
  6,180
  6,562
  6,959
  7,373
  7,805
  8,255
  8,725
  9,216
  9,729
  10,264
  10,824
  11,410
  12,022
  12,663
  13,334
  14,036
Total equity, $m
  769
  847
  928
  1,013
  1,101
  1,194
  1,289
  1,389
  1,493
  1,600
  1,712
  1,828
  1,949
  2,075
  2,205
  2,342
  2,483
  2,631
  2,785
  2,946
  3,114
  3,289
  3,472
  3,663
  3,863
  4,072
  4,290
  4,519
  4,758
  5,009
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,923
  3,219
  3,528
  3,851
  4,187
  4,539
  4,902
  5,281
  5,675
  6,084
  6,509
  6,951
  7,411
  7,889
  8,385
  8,904
  9,442
  10,004
  10,590
  11,201
  11,839
  12,505
  13,201
  13,927
  14,687
  15,482
  16,312
  17,182
  18,092
  19,045
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.880
  1.970
  2.040
  2.100
  2.160
  2.210
  2.250
  2.290
  2.330
  2.360
  2.390
  2.420
  2.440
  2.460
  2.480
  2.500
  2.520
  2.530
  2.550
  2.560
  2.580
  2.590
  2.600
  2.610
  2.620
  2.630
  2.640
  2.650
  2.650
  2.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  132
  144
  158
  171
  186
  201
  217
  233
  250
  267
  280
  299
  318
  339
  360
  382
  406
  430
  455
  481
  509
  537
  567
  598
  631
  665
  701
  738
  777
  818
Funds from operations, $m
  206
  223
  242
  260
  280
  301
  322
  344
  367
  391
  415
  441
  468
  496
  525
  555
  587
  620
  654
  690
  728
  767
  808
  850
  895
  942
  991
  1,042
  1,095
  1,151
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
Cash from operations, $m
  190
  207
  225
  243
  262
  282
  302
  324
  346
  369
  392
  417
  443
  470
  498
  527
  557
  589
  622
  657
  693
  730
  770
  811
  854
  898
  945
  994
  1,046
  1,099
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -113
  -126
  -138
  -152
  -165
  -180
  -195
  -211
  -227
  -244
  -261
  -280
  -299
  -318
  -339
  -360
  -382
  -406
  -430
  -455
  -481
  -509
  -537
  -567
  -598
  -631
  -665
  -701
  -738
  -777
New CAPEX, $m
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -222
  -232
  -241
  -252
  -262
  -274
  -286
  -299
  -312
  -326
  -341
  -357
  -374
  -391
  -409
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -234
  -253
  -271
  -291
  -310
  -330
  -352
  -374
  -396
  -420
  -444
  -470
  -496
  -523
  -553
  -582
  -614
  -647
  -682
  -717
  -755
  -795
  -836
  -879
  -924
  -972
  -1,022
  -1,075
  -1,129
  -1,186
Free cash flow, $m
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  205
  218
  228
  238
  248
  258
  269
  279
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  352
  366
  382
  397
  414
  432
  450
  470
  491
  513
  536
  560
  585
  612
  641
  671
  702
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  205
  218
  228
  238
  248
  258
  269
  279
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  352
  366
  382
  397
  414
  432
  450
  470
  491
  513
  536
  560
  585
  612
  641
  671
  702
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  162
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
  219
  230
  240
  251
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  356
  373
  390
  408
  427
  446
  467
  489
  512
  536
  561
  588
  615
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -251
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
Cash available for distribution, $m
  87
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  144
  149
  157
  164
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  276
  289
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
Discount rate, %
  9.90
  10.40
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.64
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.83
  25.02
  26.27
  27.58
  28.96
  30.41
  31.93
  33.52
  35.20
  36.96
  38.81
  40.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  79
  78
  73
  68
  63
  57
  52
  46
  40
  34
  29
  24
  20
  16
  12
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9
  99.9

Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. is engaged in the production of cellulose specialties. The Company's product lines include cellulose specialties and commodity products. Its products are used in manufacturing processes. The Company's products are sold throughout the world to companies for use in various industrial applications, and to produce a range of products, including cigarette filters, foods, pharmaceuticals, textiles and electronics. The Company focuses on producing various forms of cellulose specialties products, such as cellulose acetate and cellulose ethers. The Company's production facilities are located in Jesup, Georgia and Fernandina Beach, Florida. The Jesup plant can produce cellulose specialties or commodity products using both hardwood and softwood in a pre-hydrolyzed kraft or high potential of hydrogen (pH) cooking process. The Fernandina Beach plant can produce cellulose specialties or commodity products using softwood in a sulfite or low pH cooking process.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.1
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 3.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 33
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 364.6%
Total Debt to Equity 369.3%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Total Capital 8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Equity 74.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.1%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
EBITDA Margin 27.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Operating Margin 16.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Pre-Tax Margin 13%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Net Profit Margin 8.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 35.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Payout Ratio 20.5%

RYAM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RYAM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $961 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rayonier Advanced Materials. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Rayonier Advanced Materials. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RYAM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.9%, whose default value for RYAM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rayonier Advanced Materials, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rayonier Advanced Materials.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RYAM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RYAM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Rayonier Advanced Materials.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rayonier Advanced Materials. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RYAM stock is equal to 0.9%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RYAM are equal to 118%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rayonier Advanced Materials operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RYAM is equal to 15%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $694 million for Rayonier Advanced Materials - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43 million for Rayonier Advanced Materials is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rayonier Advanced Materials at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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