Intrinsic value of Rayonier - RYN

Previous Close

$36.13

  Intrinsic Value

$12.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$36.13

 
Intrinsic value

$12.55

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as RYN.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RYN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  836
  856
  878
  902
  930
  960
  992
  1,028
  1,066
  1,107
  1,151
  1,197
  1,247
  1,300
  1,356
  1,415
  1,478
  1,545
  1,615
  1,689
  1,767
  1,850
  1,937
  2,029
  2,125
  2,227
  2,334
  2,447
  2,565
  2,690
Variable operating expenses, $m
  575
  588
  603
  620
  639
  659
  682
  706
  732
  760
  790
  822
  857
  893
  931
  972
  1,015
  1,061
  1,109
  1,160
  1,214
  1,271
  1,331
  1,394
  1,460
  1,530
  1,604
  1,681
  1,762
  1,848
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  575
  588
  603
  620
  639
  659
  682
  706
  732
  760
  790
  822
  857
  893
  931
  972
  1,015
  1,061
  1,109
  1,160
  1,214
  1,271
  1,331
  1,394
  1,460
  1,530
  1,604
  1,681
  1,762
  1,848
Operating income, $m
  262
  268
  275
  282
  291
  300
  311
  322
  334
  346
  360
  375
  390
  407
  424
  443
  463
  483
  505
  529
  553
  579
  606
  635
  665
  697
  731
  766
  803
  842
EBITDA, $m
  264
  270
  277
  284
  293
  303
  313
  324
  336
  349
  363
  377
  393
  410
  427
  446
  466
  487
  509
  533
  557
  583
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736
  771
  809
  848
Interest expense (income), $m
  36
  55
  56
  58
  60
  61
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
Earnings before tax, $m
  207
  211
  217
  223
  230
  237
  245
  253
  263
  272
  283
  294
  306
  319
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  432
  451
  472
  494
  518
  542
  568
  595
  623
  653
Tax expense, $m
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  176
Net income, $m
  151
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  396
  415
  434
  455
  477

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,807
  2,871
  2,945
  3,028
  3,120
  3,220
  3,330
  3,449
  3,577
  3,714
  3,861
  4,018
  4,184
  4,362
  4,550
  4,749
  4,960
  5,183
  5,419
  5,668
  5,931
  6,208
  6,500
  6,808
  7,132
  7,473
  7,832
  8,210
  8,608
  9,026
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,807
  2,871
  2,945
  3,028
  3,120
  3,220
  3,330
  3,449
  3,577
  3,714
  3,861
  4,018
  4,184
  4,362
  4,550
  4,749
  4,960
  5,183
  5,419
  5,668
  5,931
  6,208
  6,500
  6,808
  7,132
  7,473
  7,832
  8,210
  8,608
  9,026
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
  0.298
Average production assets, $m
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
Total debt, $m
  1,044
  1,072
  1,103
  1,138
  1,176
  1,219
  1,265
  1,315
  1,369
  1,427
  1,489
  1,555
  1,626
  1,701
  1,780
  1,864
  1,953
  2,047
  2,147
  2,252
  2,363
  2,480
  2,603
  2,733
  2,870
  3,014
  3,165
  3,325
  3,492
  3,669
Total liabilities, $m
  1,184
  1,212
  1,243
  1,278
  1,317
  1,359
  1,405
  1,455
  1,509
  1,567
  1,629
  1,695
  1,766
  1,841
  1,920
  2,004
  2,093
  2,187
  2,287
  2,392
  2,503
  2,620
  2,743
  2,873
  3,010
  3,154
  3,305
  3,465
  3,633
  3,809
Total equity, $m
  1,622
  1,660
  1,702
  1,750
  1,803
  1,861
  1,925
  1,993
  2,067
  2,147
  2,232
  2,322
  2,419
  2,521
  2,630
  2,745
  2,867
  2,996
  3,132
  3,276
  3,428
  3,588
  3,757
  3,935
  4,122
  4,320
  4,527
  4,746
  4,975
  5,217
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,806
  2,872
  2,945
  3,028
  3,120
  3,220
  3,330
  3,448
  3,576
  3,714
  3,861
  4,017
  4,185
  4,362
  4,550
  4,749
  4,960
  5,183
  5,419
  5,668
  5,931
  6,208
  6,500
  6,808
  7,132
  7,474
  7,832
  8,211
  8,608
  9,026
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  151
  154
  158
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  396
  415
  434
  455
  477
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  153
  156
  160
  165
  170
  175
  181
  187
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  236
  246
  256
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  153
  156
  160
  165
  170
  175
  181
  187
  194
  201
  209
  218
  227
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
Free cash flow, $m
  150
  154
  158
  162
  167
  172
  178
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  314
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  412
  432
  453
  474
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  22
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  159
  168
  176
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  22
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  159
  168
  176
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  386
  405
  424
  445
  466
  489
  513
  538
  564
  592
  621
  651
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -30
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -208
  -218
  -230
  -242
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  100
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Cash available for distribution, $m
  243
  144
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  166
  171
  177
  183
  189
  197
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  409
Discount rate, %
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  230
  128
  122
  116
  109
  103
  96
  89
  83
  76
  69
  62
  55
  49
  43
  37
  31
  26
  22
  18
  14
  11
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Rayonier Inc. is a timberland real estate investment trust with assets located in some of the timber growing regions in the United States and New Zealand. The Company operates through five segments: Southern Timber, Pacific Northwest Timber, New Zealand Timber, Real Estate and Trading. The Southern Timber, Pacific Northwest Timber and New Zealand Timber segments reflect all activities related to the harvesting of timber and other activities, such as recreational leases, within each respective geography. Its New Zealand Timber segment also reflects land sales that occur within its New Zealand portfolio. Its Real Estate segment reflects the United States land sales. Its Trading segment reflects the log trading activities that support its New Zealand operations. It owned, leased or managed approximately 2.7 million acres of timberlands, as of December 31, 2016. It is engaged in the trading of logs from New Zealand and Australia to Pacific Rim markets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rayonier (RYN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.9
Price to Sales 5.6
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -19.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 44.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 176.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 72.9%
Total Debt to Equity 75.2%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Total Capital 9.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Equity 15.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
EBITDA Margin 47.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.2%
Operating Margin 32.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21%
Pre-Tax Margin 28.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Net Profit Margin 26.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Effective Tax Rate 2.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.7%
Payout Ratio 58%

RYN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RYN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $820 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rayonier. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Rayonier. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RYN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for RYN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rayonier, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rayonier.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RYN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RYN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Rayonier.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rayonier. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RYN stock is equal to 0.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RYN are equal to 2.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rayonier operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RYN is equal to -0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1693 million for Rayonier - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 129 million for Rayonier is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rayonier at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Rayonier Announces Third Quarter 2018 Dividend   [Jul-20-18 08:58AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is It The Right Time To Buy Rayonier Inc (NYSE:RYN)?   [Jun-26-18 12:01PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Rayonier: A Different Kind of REIT   [Jun-05-18 05:58PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 REITs You May Not Have Heard of   [01:56PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Rayonier CEO to Present at REITWeek   [May-22-18 04:39PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rayonier Announces 8% Dividend Increase   [May-21-18 08:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Rayonier: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 07:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Rayonier Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rayonier CEO to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Feb-15-18 04:10PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rayonier Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [08:20AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Rayonier beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-07-18 06:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ Rayonier Reports Fourth Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rayonier Announces Tax Treatment of 2017 Dividends   [Jan-16-18 04:36PM  Business Wire]
▶ How to Invest in Lumber   [Nov-27-17 08:10AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Rayonier Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-02-17 08:55AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Rayonier beats 3Q profit forecasts   [05:50AM  Associated Press]
▶ Rayonier Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-01-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rayonier to Webcast Investor Day on November 10th   [Oct-31-17 09:12AM  Business Wire]
▶ Rayonier Announces Fourth Quarter 2017 Dividend   [Oct-20-17 09:08AM  Business Wire]
▶ Rayonier hosts students, representatives at manufacturing plant   [Oct-06-17 03:05PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Pomerantz LLP/   [Sep-15-17 01:39PM  PR Newswire]
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