Intrinsic value of SAExploration Holdings, Inc. - SAEX

Previous Close

$3.84

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$3.84

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SAEX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  130
  133
  136
  140
  144
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
  397
  417
Variable operating expenses, $m
  105
  107
  110
  113
  117
  120
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  212
  221
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  321
  337
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
Total operating expenses, $m
  134
  136
  140
  144
  148
  152
  158
  162
  168
  174
  180
  186
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  234
  244
  255
  265
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  342
  357
  374
  391
Operating income, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
EBITDA, $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  30
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
Earnings before tax, $m
  -34
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -34
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  145
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  184
  192
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  306
  320
  335
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  444
  465
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  145
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  184
  192
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  306
  320
  335
  351
  368
  385
  404
  423
  444
  465
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.897
  0.899
  0.895
  0.897
  0.894
  0.898
  0.895
  0.893
  0.897
  0.891
  0.894
  0.894
  0.894
  0.893
  0.894
  0.894
  0.895
  0.895
  0.896
  0.897
  0.895
  0.897
  0.896
  0.895
  0.894
  0.896
  0.894
  0.896
  0.894
  0.897
Average production assets, $m
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
Working capital, $m
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
Total debt, $m
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  238
  250
  263
  276
  291
  306
  321
  338
  356
  374
  394
Total liabilities, $m
  130
  133
  137
  141
  145
  149
  155
  160
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
  400
  419
Total equity, $m
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  144
  148
  152
  157
  161
  166
  172
  178
  184
  191
  199
  207
  216
  224
  234
  244
  256
  268
  280
  292
  306
  320
  336
  351
  368
  386
  404
  423
  444
  466
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.240
  7.280
  7.330
  7.370
  7.420
  7.470
  7.520
  7.570
  7.620
  7.670
  7.720
  7.770
  7.820
  7.870
  7.920
  7.960
  8.010
  8.050
  8.090
  8.130
  8.170
  8.210
  8.240
  8.280
  8.310
  8.340
  8.370
  8.400
  8.430
  8.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -34
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
Funds from operations, $m
  -26
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -39
  -40
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -25
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -39
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -16
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  53
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  37
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  49
  50
  52
  53
  56
  57
  59
  62
  63
  66
  69
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  84
  87
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -53
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -51
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
Discount rate, %
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.02
  39.93
  41.92
  44.02
  46.22
  48.53
  50.96
  53.50
  56.18
  58.99
  61.94
  65.03
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -44
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  16.2
  5.2
  1.7
  0.5
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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SAExploration Holdings, Inc., an oilfield services company, provides seismic data acquisition and logistical support services to the oil and gas industry in North and South America, and Southeast Asia. Its seismic data acquisition services include program design, planning and permitting, camp services, survey, drilling, recording, reclamation, and in-field processing. The company acquires 2D, 3D, time-lapse 4D, and multi-component seismic data on land, in transition zones between land and water, and in offshore in depths reaching 3,000 meters. It operates crews that utilize approximately 29,500 channels of land and marine seismic data acquisition equipment and other equipment. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SAExploration Holdings, Inc. (SAEX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SAEX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SAEX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $127 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SAExploration Holdings, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of SAExploration Holdings, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SAEX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15.8%, whose default value for SAEX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SAExploration Holdings, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SAExploration Holdings, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SAEX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $28 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SAEX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 24.5% for SAExploration Holdings, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SAExploration Holdings, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SAEX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SAEX are equal to 30.8%.

Life of production assets of 3.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SAExploration Holdings, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SAEX is equal to -4.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-4.759 million for SAExploration Holdings, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 3.160 million for SAExploration Holdings, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SAExploration Holdings, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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