Intrinsic value of SAExploration Holdings - SAEX

Previous Close

$4.02

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$4.02

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SAEX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.50
  22.55
  20.80
  19.22
  17.79
  16.51
  15.36
  14.33
  13.39
  12.55
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.93
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
Revenue, $m
  158
  194
  234
  279
  329
  383
  442
  505
  573
  645
  721
  801
  885
  973
  1,065
  1,161
  1,261
  1,366
  1,474
  1,586
  1,703
  1,825
  1,951
  2,082
  2,219
  2,361
  2,509
  2,663
  2,823
  2,990
Variable operating expenses, $m
  128
  157
  190
  226
  266
  310
  358
  409
  464
  522
  583
  648
  716
  787
  862
  940
  1,021
  1,105
  1,192
  1,283
  1,378
  1,476
  1,578
  1,685
  1,795
  1,910
  2,030
  2,154
  2,284
  2,419
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
Total operating expenses, $m
  157
  186
  220
  257
  297
  342
  391
  442
  498
  557
  619
  684
  753
  825
  901
  980
  1,062
  1,146
  1,234
  1,326
  1,422
  1,521
  1,624
  1,732
  1,843
  1,959
  2,080
  2,205
  2,337
  2,473
Operating income, $m
  1
  8
  15
  23
  31
  41
  52
  63
  75
  88
  102
  117
  132
  148
  165
  182
  200
  219
  239
  260
  281
  303
  326
  350
  375
  402
  429
  457
  486
  517
EBITDA, $m
  11
  20
  29
  40
  52
  65
  79
  94
  111
  128
  146
  166
  186
  208
  230
  254
  278
  303
  330
  357
  386
  416
  447
  479
  512
  547
  583
  621
  660
  701
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  30
  33
  42
  51
  63
  75
  88
  103
  118
  135
  153
  171
  191
  212
  234
  256
  280
  305
  330
  357
  385
  413
  443
  474
  507
  540
  575
  612
  650
  689
Earnings before tax, $m
  -28
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -28
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  177
  217
  262
  312
  367
  428
  494
  564
  640
  720
  805
  895
  989
  1,088
  1,190
  1,298
  1,409
  1,526
  1,647
  1,772
  1,903
  2,039
  2,180
  2,327
  2,479
  2,638
  2,803
  2,975
  3,154
  3,341
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  177
  217
  262
  312
  367
  428
  494
  564
  640
  720
  805
  895
  989
  1,088
  1,190
  1,298
  1,409
  1,526
  1,647
  1,772
  1,903
  2,039
  2,180
  2,327
  2,479
  2,638
  2,803
  2,975
  3,154
  3,341
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.893
  0.894
  0.893
  0.894
  0.896
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.896
  0.896
  0.895
  0.895
  0.894
  0.895
  0.894
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
  0.895
Average production assets, $m
  49
  60
  72
  86
  101
  118
  136
  156
  176
  199
  222
  247
  273
  300
  328
  358
  389
  421
  454
  489
  525
  562
  601
  641
  683
  727
  773
  820
  869
  921
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -132
Total debt, $m
  134
  169
  210
  255
  305
  360
  419
  483
  551
  623
  699
  780
  865
  953
  1,046
  1,143
  1,243
  1,348
  1,457
  1,570
  1,687
  1,810
  1,937
  2,069
  2,206
  2,349
  2,497
  2,652
  2,813
  2,981
Total liabilities, $m
  159
  195
  235
  281
  331
  385
  444
  508
  576
  648
  725
  805
  890
  979
  1,071
  1,168
  1,269
  1,373
  1,482
  1,595
  1,713
  1,835
  1,962
  2,094
  2,231
  2,374
  2,523
  2,677
  2,839
  3,007
Total equity, $m
  18
  22
  26
  31
  37
  43
  49
  56
  64
  72
  81
  89
  99
  109
  119
  130
  141
  153
  165
  177
  190
  204
  218
  233
  248
  264
  280
  297
  315
  334
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  177
  217
  261
  312
  368
  428
  493
  564
  640
  720
  806
  894
  989
  1,088
  1,190
  1,298
  1,410
  1,526
  1,647
  1,772
  1,903
  2,039
  2,180
  2,327
  2,479
  2,638
  2,803
  2,974
  3,154
  3,341
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.560
  7.830
  8.030
  8.190
  8.310
  8.410
  8.490
  8.550
  8.600
  8.650
  8.680
  8.720
  8.740
  8.770
  8.790
  8.800
  8.820
  8.830
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
  8.880
  8.880
  8.890
  8.900
  8.900
  8.910
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -28
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  12
  15
  17
  21
  24
  27
  31
  36
  40
  44
  49
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  137
  145
  155
  164
  174
  184
Funds from operations, $m
  -18
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  -17
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -145
  -155
  -164
  -174
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -42
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -88
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -225
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  12
  36
  41
  45
  50
  55
  59
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  51
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  63
  65
  72
  79
  87
  95
  102
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  246
  258
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  342
  359
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -51
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -22
  4
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  10
  8
  7
  5
  3
  1
  -2
  -4
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
Discount rate, %
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.02
  39.93
  41.92
  44.02
  46.22
  48.53
  50.96
  53.50
  56.18
  58.99
  61.94
  65.03
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -19
  3
  3
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  18.8
  7.7
  3.3
  1.5
  0.7
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

SAExploration Holdings, Inc., an oilfield services company, provides seismic data acquisition and logistical support services to the oil and gas industry in North and South America, and Southeast Asia. Its seismic data acquisition services include program design, planning and permitting, camp services, survey, drilling, recording, reclamation, and in-field processing. The company acquires 2D, 3D, time-lapse 4D, and multi-component seismic data on land, in transition zones between land and water, and in offshore in depths reaching 3,000 meters. It operates crews that utilize approximately 29,500 channels of land and marine seismic data acquisition equipment and other equipment. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SAExploration Holdings (SAEX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SAEX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SAEX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $127.022 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SAExploration Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of SAExploration Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SAEX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 24.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15.8%, whose default value for SAEX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SAExploration Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SAExploration Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SAEX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $28 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SAEX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 24.5% for SAExploration Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SAExploration Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SAEX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SAEX are equal to 30.8%.

Life of production assets of 3.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SAExploration Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SAEX is equal to -4.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-4.759 million for SAExploration Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.903 million for SAExploration Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SAExploration Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

COMPANY NEWS

▶ SAExploration Announces 20-To-1 Reverse Stock Split   [Sep-14-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Bankrupt Geokinetics Plans Job Cuts   [Jul-27-18 01:57PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Benzinga Pro's 5 Stocks To Watch Today   [Jul-03-18 08:43AM  Benzinga]
▶ [$$] Judge Overrides Trustee Objection to Geokinetics Breakup Fee   [Jun-29-18 05:50PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] SAExploration Bids on Bankrupt Geokinetics   [Jun-28-18 02:34PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ SAExploration Holdings, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-16-18 08:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ SAExploration Announces $20 Million of New Project Awards   [Apr-20-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is SAExploration Holdings, Inc. (SAEX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-17-16 03:43PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Reverse Splits Don't Leave a Lasting Impression   [Nov-16-16 11:56AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ DryShips Soars 1,500% Amid Epic Short Squeeze   [Nov-15-16 04:16PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ 5 Stocks Under $10 Poised for Big Breakouts   [Sep-29-16 09:18AM  TheStreet.com]

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