Intrinsic value of Science Applications International - SAIC

Previous Close

$86.30

  Intrinsic Value

$54.95

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  Rating & Target

sell

-36%

Previous close

$86.30

 
Intrinsic value

$54.95

 
Up/down potential

-36%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SAIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2018), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047
   2048

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,543
  4,648
  4,767
  4,901
  5,050
  5,213
  5,390
  5,582
  5,789
  6,012
  6,249
  6,503
  6,773
  7,060
  7,365
  7,687
  8,029
  8,390
  8,772
  9,175
  9,600
  10,049
  10,522
  11,020
  11,544
  12,097
  12,678
  13,290
  13,933
  14,610
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,273
  4,369
  4,478
  4,601
  4,738
  4,887
  5,050
  5,227
  5,417
  5,621
  5,734
  5,967
  6,215
  6,478
  6,758
  7,054
  7,367
  7,699
  8,049
  8,419
  8,809
  9,221
  9,655
  10,112
  10,593
  11,100
  11,633
  12,195
  12,785
  13,407
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,273
  4,369
  4,478
  4,601
  4,738
  4,887
  5,050
  5,227
  5,417
  5,621
  5,734
  5,967
  6,215
  6,478
  6,758
  7,054
  7,367
  7,699
  8,049
  8,419
  8,809
  9,221
  9,655
  10,112
  10,593
  11,100
  11,633
  12,195
  12,785
  13,407
Operating income, $m
  270
  279
  289
  300
  312
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  515
  536
  558
  582
  607
  633
  662
  691
  723
  756
  791
  828
  867
  908
  951
  997
  1,045
  1,095
  1,148
  1,204
EBITDA, $m
  488
  499
  512
  526
  542
  560
  579
  600
  622
  646
  671
  698
  727
  758
  791
  826
  862
  901
  942
  985
  1,031
  1,079
  1,130
  1,183
  1,240
  1,299
  1,362
  1,427
  1,496
  1,569
Interest expense (income), $m
  48
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
  205
  217
  229
  242
  256
Earnings before tax, $m
  215
  222
  229
  238
  247
  257
  269
  281
  294
  308
  427
  443
  459
  477
  496
  517
  538
  560
  584
  609
  636
  664
  693
  724
  757
  791
  828
  866
  906
  948
Tax expense, $m
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  204
  214
  223
  234
  245
  256
Net income, $m
  157
  162
  167
  174
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  225
  311
  323
  335
  348
  362
  377
  393
  409
  426
  445
  464
  485
  506
  529
  553
  578
  604
  632
  661
  692

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,114
  2,163
  2,218
  2,281
  2,350
  2,426
  2,508
  2,598
  2,694
  2,797
  2,908
  3,026
  3,152
  3,285
  3,427
  3,577
  3,736
  3,904
  4,082
  4,269
  4,467
  4,676
  4,896
  5,128
  5,372
  5,629
  5,899
  6,184
  6,484
  6,799
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,114
  2,163
  2,218
  2,281
  2,350
  2,426
  2,508
  2,598
  2,694
  2,797
  2,908
  3,026
  3,152
  3,285
  3,427
  3,577
  3,736
  3,904
  4,082
  4,269
  4,467
  4,676
  4,896
  5,128
  5,372
  5,629
  5,899
  6,184
  6,484
  6,799
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
  2.149
Average production assets, $m
  1,136
  1,162
  1,192
  1,225
  1,262
  1,303
  1,348
  1,396
  1,447
  1,503
  1,562
  1,626
  1,693
  1,765
  1,841
  1,922
  2,007
  2,098
  2,193
  2,294
  2,400
  2,512
  2,630
  2,755
  2,886
  3,024
  3,169
  3,322
  3,483
  3,653
Working capital, $m
  -336
  -344
  -353
  -363
  -374
  -386
  -399
  -413
  -428
  -445
  -462
  -481
  -501
  -522
  -545
  -569
  -594
  -621
  -649
  -679
  -710
  -744
  -779
  -815
  -854
  -895
  -938
  -983
  -1,031
  -1,081
Total debt, $m
  1,058
  1,099
  1,146
  1,198
  1,257
  1,320
  1,390
  1,465
  1,546
  1,633
  1,727
  1,826
  1,932
  2,044
  2,164
  2,290
  2,424
  2,565
  2,715
  2,873
  3,039
  3,215
  3,400
  3,596
  3,801
  4,018
  4,245
  4,485
  4,737
  5,002
Total liabilities, $m
  1,780
  1,821
  1,868
  1,920
  1,979
  2,042
  2,112
  2,187
  2,268
  2,355
  2,449
  2,548
  2,654
  2,766
  2,886
  3,012
  3,146
  3,287
  3,437
  3,595
  3,761
  3,937
  4,122
  4,318
  4,523
  4,740
  4,967
  5,207
  5,459
  5,724
Total equity, $m
  334
  342
  350
  360
  371
  383
  396
  410
  426
  442
  459
  478
  498
  519
  541
  565
  590
  617
  645
  675
  706
  739
  774
  810
  849
  889
  932
  977
  1,024
  1,074
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,114
  2,163
  2,218
  2,280
  2,350
  2,425
  2,508
  2,597
  2,694
  2,797
  2,908
  3,026
  3,152
  3,285
  3,427
  3,577
  3,736
  3,904
  4,082
  4,270
  4,467
  4,676
  4,896
  5,128
  5,372
  5,629
  5,899
  6,184
  6,483
  6,798
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.170
  3.220
  3.270
  3.330
  3.380
  3.450
  3.510
  3.570
  3.630
  3.700
  3.760
  3.820
  3.880
  3.940
  4.000
  4.050
  4.110
  4.160
  4.210
  4.260
  4.310
  4.350
  4.400
  4.440
  4.480
  4.520
  4.550
  4.590
  4.620
  4.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  157
  162
  167
  174
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  225
  311
  323
  335
  348
  362
  377
  393
  409
  426
  445
  464
  485
  506
  529
  553
  578
  604
  632
  661
  692
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  218
  220
  223
  227
  230
  235
  239
  244
  249
  254
  156
  163
  169
  177
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  275
  289
  302
  317
  332
  348
  365
Funds from operations, $m
  375
  382
  391
  400
  411
  422
  435
  449
  463
  479
  468
  486
  505
  525
  546
  569
  593
  619
  646
  674
  704
  736
  769
  804
  841
  880
  921
  964
  1,010
  1,057
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
Cash from operations, $m
  381
  390
  400
  410
  422
  435
  448
  463
  479
  495
  485
  504
  525
  546
  569
  593
  619
  646
  674
  704
  736
  769
  804
  841
  880
  921
  964
  1,010
  1,057
  1,107
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -111
  -114
  -116
  -119
  -123
  -126
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -145
  -150
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -177
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -289
  -302
  -317
  -332
  -348
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -169
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -209
  -219
  -231
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -335
  -352
  -369
  -388
  -406
  -427
  -447
  -470
  -493
  -517
Free cash flow, $m
  247
  250
  254
  258
  262
  268
  273
  280
  287
  295
  276
  285
  295
  305
  316
  328
  341
  355
  369
  384
  400
  417
  435
  454
  473
  494
  516
  540
  564
  590
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  34
  41
  47
  53
  58
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  206
  216
  228
  240
  252
  265
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  34
  41
  47
  53
  58
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  112
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  185
  195
  206
  216
  228
  240
  252
  265
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  281
  291
  300
  310
  320
  331
  343
  355
  368
  382
  369
  384
  400
  418
  436
  455
  475
  496
  518
  542
  567
  593
  620
  649
  679
  711
  744
  779
  816
  855
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Cash available for distribution, $m
  274
  283
  292
  300
  309
  319
  330
  341
  353
  366
  351
  366
  381
  397
  413
  431
  450
  470
  490
  512
  535
  560
  585
  612
  640
  670
  701
  734
  769
  805
Discount rate, %
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  254
  242
  227
  212
  196
  179
  163
  147
  131
  115
  93
  80
  68
  57
  47
  38
  30
  23
  18
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) is a provider of technical, engineering and enterprise information technology (IT) services. The Company provides its services primarily to the United States Government, including the Department of Defense (DoD), the intelligence community and federal civilian agencies. The Company provides engineering, systems integration and information technology offerings for government projects, and offers a range of services with a targeted emphasis on higher-end, differentiated technology services. The Company's offerings include engineering; technology and equipment platform integration; maintenance of ground and maritime systems; logistics; training and simulation; operation and program support services, and end-to-end services spanning the design, development, integration, deployment, management and operations, sustainment and security of its customers' entire IT infrastructure.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Science Applications International (SAIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.7
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 10.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 288.7%
Total Debt to Equity 295.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Total Capital 10.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Return On Equity 40.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Operating Margin 6.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Net Profit Margin 3.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Effective Tax Rate 32.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
Payout Ratio 36.5%

SAIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SAIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4454 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Science Applications International. The default revenue input number comes from 2018 income statement of Science Applications International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SAIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for SAIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Science Applications International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Science Applications International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SAIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SAIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Science Applications International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Science Applications International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SAIC stock is equal to 0.6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SAIC are equal to 25%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Science Applications International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SAIC is equal to -7.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $327 million for Science Applications International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43 million for Science Applications International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Science Applications International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 27th   [Jun-27-18 10:06AM  Zacks]
▶ SAIC Appoints Two New Senior Leaders   [Jun-26-18 07:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ Weak Bookings, Weak Prospects Wreck SAIC Stock   [Jun-20-18 10:52AM  Motley Fool]
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▶ Only four D.C.-area CEOs make Glassdoor's top 100 list for 2018   [Jun-19-18 11:59PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ SAIC: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:21PM  Associated Press]
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▶ What will Engility's private equity owners do next as lock-up period ends?   [May-09-18 03:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ SAIC to Hold Annual Meeting of Stockholders on June 6   [May-03-18 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ CACI: We are not consumed by the notion of scale   [02:47PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Ex-CSRA executive lands at SAIC   [Apr-30-18 10:13AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 5 Tech Stocks Standing Tall After Month-Long Turmoil   [Apr-23-18 03:20PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ 3 Tech ETFs and Stocks Unscathed by FAANG Shocks   [Apr-04-18 02:30PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ SAIC is 'very comfortable' at its size as competitors scale up   [Mar-29-18 02:31PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ SAIC tops Street 4Q forecasts   [06:59AM  Associated Press]
▶ CACI makes bid for CSRA in hopes of breaking up General Dynamics deal   [Mar-19-18 11:31AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ DXC Technology's public sector business spinout now has a name   [Mar-08-18 05:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ SAIC Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Dec-14-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Mark J. Johnson Joins SAICs Board of Directors   [Dec-11-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Stocks Trade Higher on Friday   [Dec-08-17 03:28PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ SAIC tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Dec-07-17 04:23PM  Associated Press]
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