Intrinsic value of Science Applications International - SAIC

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$71.70

  Intrinsic Value

$68.05

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  Rating & Target

hold

-5%

Previous close

$71.70

 
Intrinsic value

$68.05

 
Up/down potential

-5%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SAIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Science Applications International (SAIC) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.13
  2.80
  3.02
  3.22
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  4,450
  4,575
  4,713
  4,864
  5,030
  5,208
  5,401
  5,608
  5,830
  6,066
  6,317
  6,585
  6,869
  7,169
  7,488
  7,824
  8,180
  8,556
  8,952
  9,370
  9,811
  10,275
  10,764
  11,279
  11,821
  12,392
  12,992
  13,623
  14,286
  14,984
  15,718
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,081
  3,171
  3,271
  3,379
  3,496
  3,622
  3,757
  3,902
  4,057
  4,222
  4,310
  4,496
  4,693
  4,902
  5,122
  5,355
  5,601
  5,860
  6,134
  6,422
  6,726
  7,046
  7,383
  7,738
  8,112
  8,504
  8,917
  9,352
  9,809
  10,289
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,238
  1,269
  1,301
  1,333
  1,367
  1,401
  1,436
  1,472
  1,509
  1,546
  1,585
  1,625
  1,665
  1,707
  1,750
  1,793
  1,838
  1,884
  1,931
  1,979
  2,029
  2,080
  2,132
  2,185
  2,240
  2,296
  2,353
  2,412
  2,472
  2,534
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,179
  4,319
  4,440
  4,572
  4,712
  4,863
  5,023
  5,193
  5,374
  5,566
  5,768
  5,895
  6,121
  6,358
  6,609
  6,872
  7,148
  7,439
  7,744
  8,065
  8,401
  8,755
  9,126
  9,515
  9,923
  10,352
  10,800
  11,270
  11,764
  12,281
  12,823
Operating income, $m
  271
  256
  272
  293
  317
  346
  378
  415
  455
  500
  549
  689
  748
  811
  879
  953
  1,032
  1,117
  1,208
  1,305
  1,409
  1,520
  1,638
  1,764
  1,898
  2,040
  2,192
  2,352
  2,523
  2,703
  2,895
EBITDA, $m
  324
  355
  372
  393
  418
  447
  480
  517
  558
  604
  654
  708
  768
  832
  901
  976
  1,056
  1,142
  1,234
  1,332
  1,438
  1,550
  1,669
  1,797
  1,932
  2,076
  2,229
  2,392
  2,564
  2,747
  2,940
Interest expense (income), $m
  48
  46
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  135
  142
  151
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
Earnings before tax, $m
  220
  210
  225
  243
  265
  291
  320
  354
  391
  432
  477
  613
  667
  725
  789
  857
  930
  1,009
  1,094
  1,185
  1,282
  1,385
  1,496
  1,613
  1,739
  1,872
  2,014
  2,164
  2,324
  2,494
  2,674
Tax expense, $m
  72
  57
  61
  66
  72
  79
  86
  95
  105
  117
  129
  165
  180
  196
  213
  231
  251
  273
  295
  320
  346
  374
  404
  436
  469
  505
  544
  584
  628
  673
  722
Net income, $m
  148
  153
  164
  178
  194
  212
  234
  258
  285
  315
  348
  447
  487
  529
  576
  626
  679
  737
  799
  865
  936
  1,011
  1,092
  1,178
  1,269
  1,367
  1,470
  1,580
  1,697
  1,821
  1,952

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  210
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,042
  1,883
  1,940
  2,003
  2,071
  2,144
  2,224
  2,309
  2,400
  2,497
  2,601
  2,711
  2,828
  2,952
  3,083
  3,221
  3,368
  3,522
  3,686
  3,858
  4,039
  4,230
  4,432
  4,644
  4,867
  5,102
  5,349
  5,608
  5,882
  6,169
  6,471
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,832
  1,883
  1,940
  2,003
  2,071
  2,144
  2,224
  2,309
  2,400
  2,497
  2,601
  2,711
  2,828
  2,952
  3,083
  3,221
  3,368
  3,522
  3,686
  3,858
  4,039
  4,230
  4,432
  4,644
  4,867
  5,102
  5,349
  5,608
  5,882
  6,169
  6,471
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.429
  2.430
  2.429
  2.428
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
  2.429
Average production assets, $m
  278
  284
  292
  302
  312
  323
  335
  348
  361
  376
  392
  408
  426
  445
  464
  485
  507
  530
  555
  581
  608
  637
  667
  699
  733
  768
  805
  845
  886
  929
  975
Working capital, $m
  286
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  248
  259
  272
  285
  299
  313
  329
  345
  362
Total debt, $m
  1,047
  1,054
  1,105
  1,161
  1,223
  1,289
  1,360
  1,437
  1,519
  1,607
  1,700
  1,799
  1,904
  2,015
  2,133
  2,258
  2,390
  2,529
  2,676
  2,831
  2,994
  3,166
  3,347
  3,538
  3,739
  3,950
  4,173
  4,407
  4,652
  4,911
  5,183
Total liabilities, $m
  1,688
  1,695
  1,746
  1,802
  1,864
  1,930
  2,001
  2,078
  2,160
  2,248
  2,341
  2,440
  2,545
  2,656
  2,774
  2,899
  3,031
  3,170
  3,317
  3,472
  3,635
  3,807
  3,988
  4,179
  4,380
  4,591
  4,814
  5,048
  5,293
  5,552
  5,824
Total equity, $m
  354
  188
  194
  200
  207
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  283
  295
  308
  322
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  487
  510
  535
  561
  588
  617
  647
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,042
  1,883
  1,940
  2,002
  2,071
  2,144
  2,223
  2,309
  2,400
  2,498
  2,601
  2,711
  2,828
  2,951
  3,082
  3,221
  3,368
  3,522
  3,686
  3,858
  4,039
  4,230
  4,431
  4,643
  4,867
  5,101
  5,349
  5,609
  5,881
  6,169
  6,471
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.958
  5.600
  5.700
  5.800
  5.900
  6.010
  6.120
  6.220
  6.330
  6.430
  6.540
  6.640
  6.730
  6.830
  6.920
  7.010
  7.100
  7.180
  7.260
  7.340
  7.410
  7.480
  7.550
  7.620
  7.680
  7.740
  7.800
  7.860
  7.910
  7.960
  8.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.079
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  148
  153
  164
  178
  194
  212
  234
  258
  285
  315
  348
  447
  487
  529
  576
  626
  679
  737
  799
  865
  936
  1,011
  1,092
  1,178
  1,269
  1,367
  1,470
  1,580
  1,697
  1,821
  1,952
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  53
  99
  100
  100
  101
  101
  102
  102
  103
  104
  105
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Funds from operations, $m
  328
  252
  264
  278
  294
  314
  336
  361
  388
  419
  453
  466
  507
  550
  597
  648
  703
  762
  825
  892
  964
  1,041
  1,123
  1,210
  1,303
  1,402
  1,508
  1,619
  1,738
  1,864
  1,997
Change in working capital, $m
  55
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  273
  250
  261
  274
  291
  310
  331
  356
  383
  414
  447
  460
  500
  543
  590
  640
  695
  753
  815
  882
  954
  1,030
  1,112
  1,199
  1,291
  1,389
  1,494
  1,605
  1,723
  1,848
  1,980
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -6
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -11
  -19
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
Free cash flow, $m
  262
  231
  239
  251
  266
  284
  304
  327
  353
  382
  414
  425
  463
  505
  550
  598
  650
  706
  766
  831
  900
  973
  1,052
  1,136
  1,225
  1,320
  1,421
  1,528
  1,642
  1,763
  1,892
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -27
  32
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  272
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -175
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -193
  32
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  272
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  69
  263
  290
  308
  328
  350
  376
  404
  435
  470
  507
  525
  569
  616
  668
  723
  782
  845
  913
  986
  1,063
  1,145
  1,233
  1,326
  1,426
  1,531
  1,643
  1,762
  1,888
  2,022
  2,164
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  26
  -19
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  185
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  428
  285
  301
  321
  343
  368
  396
  426
  460
  497
  514
  557
  604
  654
  709
  767
  830
  897
  968
  1,045
  1,126
  1,213
  1,305
  1,403
  1,508
  1,618
  1,736
  1,861
  1,993
  2,133
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  395
  241
  232
  222
  212
  201
  189
  176
  162
  148
  127
  113
  99
  85
  72
  60
  49
  39
  30
  23
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) is a provider of technical, engineering and enterprise information technology (IT) services. The Company provides its services primarily to the United States Government, including the Department of Defense (DoD), the intelligence community and federal civilian agencies. The Company provides engineering, systems integration and information technology offerings for government projects, and offers a range of services with a targeted emphasis on higher-end, differentiated technology services. The Company's offerings include engineering; technology and equipment platform integration; maintenance of ground and maritime systems; logistics; training and simulation; operation and program support services, and end-to-end services spanning the design, development, integration, deployment, management and operations, sustainment and security of its customers' entire IT infrastructure.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Science Applications International (SAIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.3
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 8.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 288.7%
Total Debt to Equity 295.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Return On Total Capital 10.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Return On Equity 40.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Operating Margin 6.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Net Profit Margin 3.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Effective Tax Rate 32.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
Payout Ratio 36.5%

SAIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SAIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4450 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Science Applications International. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Science Applications International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SAIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for SAIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Science Applications International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Science Applications International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SAIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1208 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SAIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for Science Applications International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Science Applications International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SAIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SAIC are equal to 6.2%.

Life of production assets of 21.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Science Applications International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SAIC is equal to 2.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $354 million for Science Applications International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.098 million for Science Applications International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Science Applications International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ SAIC Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Dec-14-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Mark J. Johnson Joins SAICs Board of Directors   [Dec-11-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Stocks Trade Higher on Friday   [Dec-08-17 03:28PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ SAIC tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Dec-07-17 04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ SAIC Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ SAIC offers buyouts to senior managers, consolidates organizations   [Oct-02-17 10:50AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ SAIC Awarded $250 Million USDA Contract   [06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ SAIC Awarded $165 Million IT Contract by Virginia   [Sep-21-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ SAIC misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Sep-07-17 09:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ SAIC Awarded $39 Million Task Order by SSC Atlantic   [Aug-16-17 06:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Investors Gave SAIC an F in Q1   [Jul-07-17 02:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [09:55AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Top 10 Most Expensive Cities in the U.S.   [06:00AM  Investopedia]
▶ SAIC tops 1Q profit forecasts   [04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ SAIC to move corporate HQ to Reston, hire COO   [09:44AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Industry vet named CEO of Harris IT spinoff   [Jun-06-17 09:20AM  American City Business Journals]
Financial statements of SAIC
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