Intrinsic value of Sanmina Corporation - SANM

Previous Close

$32.21

  Intrinsic Value

$65.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+103%

Previous close

$32.21

 
Intrinsic value

$65.41

 
Up/down potential

+103%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SANM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.40
  23.36
  21.52
  19.87
  18.38
  17.05
  15.84
  14.76
  13.78
  12.90
  12.11
  11.40
  10.76
  10.19
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
Revenue, $m
  8,916
  10,999
  13,366
  16,022
  18,968
  22,201
  25,718
  29,513
  33,580
  37,913
  42,506
  47,352
  52,448
  57,790
  63,377
  69,208
  75,284
  81,610
  88,189
  95,029
  102,137
  109,524
  117,200
  125,179
  133,475
  142,103
  151,082
  160,428
  170,162
  180,305
Variable operating expenses, $m
  8,622
  10,636
  12,925
  15,493
  18,342
  21,468
  24,869
  28,539
  32,472
  36,662
  41,103
  45,790
  50,717
  55,883
  61,285
  66,924
  72,800
  78,916
  85,279
  91,893
  98,766
  105,909
  113,332
  121,048
  129,070
  137,414
  146,096
  155,134
  164,547
  174,355
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,622
  10,636
  12,925
  15,493
  18,342
  21,468
  24,869
  28,539
  32,472
  36,662
  41,103
  45,790
  50,717
  55,883
  61,285
  66,924
  72,800
  78,916
  85,279
  91,893
  98,766
  105,909
  113,332
  121,048
  129,070
  137,414
  146,096
  155,134
  164,547
  174,355
Operating income, $m
  294
  363
  441
  529
  626
  733
  849
  974
  1,108
  1,251
  1,403
  1,563
  1,731
  1,907
  2,091
  2,284
  2,484
  2,693
  2,910
  3,136
  3,371
  3,614
  3,868
  4,131
  4,405
  4,689
  4,986
  5,294
  5,615
  5,950
EBITDA, $m
  443
  546
  664
  796
  942
  1,103
  1,277
  1,466
  1,668
  1,883
  2,111
  2,352
  2,605
  2,870
  3,148
  3,437
  3,739
  4,053
  4,380
  4,720
  5,073
  5,440
  5,821
  6,217
  6,629
  7,058
  7,504
  7,968
  8,451
  8,955
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  33
  69
  110
  157
  209
  268
  332
  402
  477
  558
  644
  735
  831
  932
  1,038
  1,149
  1,264
  1,385
  1,510
  1,641
  1,776
  1,917
  2,064
  2,216
  2,374
  2,539
  2,710
  2,888
  3,073
  3,266
Earnings before tax, $m
  261
  294
  331
  372
  416
  465
  517
  572
  631
  693
  759
  828
  900
  975
  1,054
  1,135
  1,220
  1,308
  1,400
  1,495
  1,594
  1,697
  1,804
  1,915
  2,030
  2,151
  2,276
  2,406
  2,542
  2,684
Tax expense, $m
  71
  79
  89
  100
  112
  125
  140
  154
  170
  187
  205
  224
  243
  263
  284
  307
  329
  353
  378
  404
  430
  458
  487
  517
  548
  581
  614
  650
  686
  725
Net income, $m
  191
  215
  242
  271
  304
  339
  377
  418
  461
  506
  554
  604
  657
  712
  769
  829
  891
  955
  1,022
  1,092
  1,164
  1,239
  1,317
  1,398
  1,482
  1,570
  1,661
  1,757
  1,856
  1,959

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,124
  6,321
  7,682
  9,208
  10,901
  12,759
  14,780
  16,962
  19,299
  21,789
  24,429
  27,214
  30,143
  33,213
  36,423
  39,774
  43,267
  46,902
  50,683
  54,614
  58,699
  62,945
  67,356
  71,942
  76,710
  81,669
  86,829
  92,200
  97,794
  103,624
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,124
  6,321
  7,682
  9,208
  10,901
  12,759
  14,780
  16,962
  19,299
  21,789
  24,429
  27,214
  30,143
  33,213
  36,423
  39,774
  43,267
  46,902
  50,683
  54,614
  58,699
  62,945
  67,356
  71,942
  76,710
  81,669
  86,829
  92,200
  97,794
  103,624
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
  1.740
Average production assets, $m
  802
  990
  1,203
  1,442
  1,707
  1,998
  2,315
  2,656
  3,022
  3,412
  3,826
  4,262
  4,720
  5,201
  5,704
  6,229
  6,776
  7,345
  7,937
  8,553
  9,192
  9,857
  10,548
  11,266
  12,013
  12,789
  13,597
  14,439
  15,315
  16,227
Working capital, $m
  990
  1,221
  1,484
  1,778
  2,105
  2,464
  2,855
  3,276
  3,727
  4,208
  4,718
  5,256
  5,822
  6,415
  7,035
  7,682
  8,357
  9,059
  9,789
  10,548
  11,337
  12,157
  13,009
  13,895
  14,816
  15,773
  16,770
  17,808
  18,888
  20,014
Total debt, $m
  1,270
  2,035
  2,904
  3,879
  4,961
  6,148
  7,440
  8,834
  10,328
  11,919
  13,605
  15,385
  17,257
  19,218
  21,270
  23,411
  25,643
  27,966
  30,382
  32,894
  35,504
  38,217
  41,036
  43,966
  47,013
  50,182
  53,479
  56,911
  60,486
  64,211
Total liabilities, $m
  3,274
  4,039
  4,909
  5,884
  6,966
  8,153
  9,445
  10,838
  12,332
  13,923
  15,610
  17,390
  19,261
  21,223
  23,275
  25,416
  27,647
  29,970
  32,387
  34,898
  37,509
  40,222
  43,041
  45,971
  49,018
  52,186
  55,483
  58,916
  62,491
  66,216
Total equity, $m
  1,850
  2,282
  2,773
  3,324
  3,935
  4,606
  5,336
  6,123
  6,967
  7,866
  8,819
  9,824
  10,882
  11,990
  13,149
  14,359
  15,619
  16,932
  18,297
  19,716
  21,190
  22,723
  24,316
  25,971
  27,692
  29,482
  31,345
  33,284
  35,304
  37,408
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,124
  6,321
  7,682
  9,208
  10,901
  12,759
  14,781
  16,961
  19,299
  21,789
  24,429
  27,214
  30,143
  33,213
  36,424
  39,775
  43,266
  46,902
  50,684
  54,614
  58,699
  62,945
  67,357
  71,942
  76,710
  81,668
  86,828
  92,200
  97,795
  103,624
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.690
  0.890
  1.050
  1.170
  1.260
  1.330
  1.390
  1.440
  1.480
  1.520
  1.540
  1.570
  1.590
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
  1.680
  1.690
  1.690
  1.700
  1.700
  1.710
  1.710
  1.710
  1.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  191
  215
  242
  271
  304
  339
  377
  418
  461
  506
  554
  604
  657
  712
  769
  829
  891
  955
  1,022
  1,092
  1,164
  1,239
  1,317
  1,398
  1,482
  1,570
  1,661
  1,757
  1,856
  1,959
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  149
  183
  223
  267
  316
  370
  429
  492
  560
  632
  708
  789
  874
  963
  1,056
  1,153
  1,255
  1,360
  1,470
  1,584
  1,702
  1,825
  1,953
  2,086
  2,225
  2,368
  2,518
  2,674
  2,836
  3,005
Funds from operations, $m
  339
  398
  465
  539
  620
  709
  806
  910
  1,020
  1,138
  1,263
  1,394
  1,531
  1,675
  1,825
  1,982
  2,145
  2,315
  2,492
  2,675
  2,866
  3,064
  3,270
  3,484
  3,707
  3,938
  4,179
  4,430
  4,692
  4,964
Change in working capital, $m
  200
  231
  263
  295
  327
  359
  390
  421
  451
  481
  510
  538
  566
  593
  620
  647
  674
  702
  730
  759
  789
  820
  852
  886
  921
  958
  997
  1,037
  1,080
  1,126
Cash from operations, $m
  139
  167
  202
  244
  293
  350
  415
  488
  569
  657
  753
  856
  965
  1,082
  1,205
  1,335
  1,471
  1,613
  1,762
  1,916
  2,077
  2,244
  2,418
  2,599
  2,786
  2,981
  3,183
  3,393
  3,611
  3,838
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -119
  -149
  -183
  -223
  -267
  -316
  -370
  -429
  -492
  -560
  -632
  -708
  -789
  -874
  -963
  -1,056
  -1,153
  -1,255
  -1,360
  -1,470
  -1,584
  -1,702
  -1,825
  -1,953
  -2,086
  -2,225
  -2,368
  -2,518
  -2,674
  -2,836
New CAPEX, $m
  -161
  -187
  -213
  -239
  -265
  -291
  -317
  -342
  -366
  -390
  -413
  -436
  -459
  -481
  -503
  -525
  -547
  -569
  -592
  -616
  -640
  -665
  -691
  -718
  -747
  -777
  -808
  -841
  -876
  -913
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -280
  -336
  -396
  -462
  -532
  -607
  -687
  -771
  -858
  -950
  -1,045
  -1,144
  -1,248
  -1,355
  -1,466
  -1,581
  -1,700
  -1,824
  -1,952
  -2,086
  -2,224
  -2,367
  -2,516
  -2,671
  -2,833
  -3,002
  -3,176
  -3,359
  -3,550
  -3,749
Free cash flow, $m
  -141
  -169
  -195
  -218
  -239
  -257
  -271
  -282
  -289
  -292
  -292
  -289
  -282
  -273
  -261
  -246
  -229
  -211
  -191
  -169
  -146
  -123
  -98
  -73
  -47
  -20
  6
  34
  61
  89
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  662
  765
  869
  975
  1,082
  1,187
  1,292
  1,394
  1,494
  1,591
  1,687
  1,780
  1,871
  1,962
  2,052
  2,141
  2,232
  2,323
  2,416
  2,512
  2,610
  2,713
  2,819
  2,930
  3,047
  3,169
  3,297
  3,432
  3,575
  3,725
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  186
  217
  249
  280
  307
  332
  352
  370
  383
  393
  399
  401
  400
  396
  390
  381
  370
  357
  343
  327
  311
  294
  276
  257
  239
  220
  201
  183
  164
  145
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  848
  982
  1,118
  1,255
  1,389
  1,519
  1,644
  1,764
  1,877
  1,984
  2,086
  2,181
  2,271
  2,358
  2,442
  2,522
  2,602
  2,680
  2,759
  2,839
  2,921
  3,007
  3,095
  3,187
  3,286
  3,389
  3,498
  3,615
  3,739
  3,870
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  707
  813
  924
  1,037
  1,150
  1,262
  1,373
  1,482
  1,588
  1,692
  1,793
  1,892
  1,989
  2,085
  2,181
  2,276
  2,372
  2,469
  2,568
  2,670
  2,775
  2,884
  2,997
  3,115
  3,239
  3,368
  3,505
  3,649
  3,800
  3,960
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -377
  -432
  -491
  -551
  -611
  -671
  -730
  -787
  -844
  -899
  -953
  -1,005
  -1,057
  -1,108
  -1,159
  -1,210
  -1,261
  -1,312
  -1,365
  -1,419
  -1,475
  -1,533
  -1,593
  -1,655
  -1,721
  -1,790
  -1,863
  -1,939
  -2,020
  -2,104
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  330
  381
  433
  486
  539
  591
  643
  694
  744
  793
  840
  886
  932
  977
  1,022
  1,066
  1,111
  1,157
  1,203
  1,251
  1,300
  1,351
  1,404
  1,459
  1,517
  1,578
  1,642
  1,710
  1,780
  1,855
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  317
  349
  377
  400
  418
  429
  435
  434
  427
  416
  399
  378
  354
  328
  300
  271
  242
  213
  185
  159
  134
  112
  92
  74
  59
  46
  35
  26
  19
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.2
  85.5
  79.7
  74.7
  70.3
  66.6
  63.3
  60.5
  58.1
  56.0
  54.1
  52.5
  51.2
  49.9
  48.9
  47.9
  47.1
  46.4
  45.8
  45.3
  44.8
  44.4
  44.0
  43.7
  43.4
  43.2
  43.0
  42.9
  42.7
  42.6

Sanmina Corporation is a provider of integrated manufacturing solutions, components, products and repair, logistics and after-market services. The Company provides its offerings primarily to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in various industries, including communications networks, storage, industrial, defense and aerospace, medical and energy. The Company operates through two businesses: Integrated Manufacturing Solutions (IMS) and Components, Products and Services (CPS). IMS consists of printed circuit board assembly and test, final system assembly and test, and direct-order-fulfillment. Its Components include interconnect systems and mechanical systems. Its Products include memory, radio frequency (RF), optical and microelectronics solutions, defense and aerospace products, storage solutions and cloud-based manufacturing execution software. Its Services include design, engineering, logistics and repair services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sanmina Corporation (SANM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.6
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 23.8%
Total Debt to Equity 29.1%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Return On Equity 8.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 7.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
EBITDA Margin 5.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

SANM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SANM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7110 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sanmina Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Sanmina Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SANM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SANM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sanmina Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sanmina Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SANM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SANM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Sanmina Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sanmina Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SANM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SANM are equal to 9%.

Life of production assets of 5.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sanmina Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SANM is equal to 11.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1472.844 million for Sanmina Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 68.412 million for Sanmina Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sanmina Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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