Intrinsic value of S&W Seed - SANW

Previous Close

$3.03

  Intrinsic Value

$0.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$3.03

 
Intrinsic value

$0.38

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SANW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  82
  90
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  149
  159
  169
  180
  191
  202
  214
  227
  240
  254
  268
  283
  299
  315
  332
  350
  368
  388
  408
  430
  452
  476
Variable operating expenses, $m
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  191
  202
  213
  225
  237
  249
  263
  277
  291
  307
  323
  339
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
Total operating expenses, $m
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  120
  128
  135
  143
  145
  154
  163
  171
  181
  190
  200
  211
  221
  233
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
  312
  327
  344
  361
  377
Operating income, $m
  -1
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
EBITDA, $m
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  105
  111
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Earnings before tax, $m
  -4
  -3
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
Net income, $m
  -4
  -3
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  129
  140
  152
  164
  177
  190
  204
  218
  233
  248
  264
  281
  298
  316
  335
  355
  375
  397
  419
  442
  467
  492
  519
  547
  576
  606
  638
  672
  707
  744
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  129
  140
  152
  164
  177
  190
  204
  218
  233
  248
  264
  281
  298
  316
  335
  355
  375
  397
  419
  442
  467
  492
  519
  547
  576
  606
  638
  672
  707
  744
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.636
  0.643
  0.638
  0.640
  0.638
  0.637
  0.637
  0.638
  0.639
  0.641
  0.640
  0.641
  0.641
  0.639
  0.639
  0.639
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.639
  0.640
  0.639
  0.640
  0.639
  0.640
Average production assets, $m
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  129
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  208
  218
  230
Working capital, $m
  41
  45
  49
  52
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  114
  120
  127
  134
  142
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
Total debt, $m
  44
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
  172
  183
  194
  205
  218
  230
  244
  258
  272
  287
  303
  320
  338
Total liabilities, $m
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  247
  261
  275
  289
  304
  320
  337
  355
Total equity, $m
  67
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  186
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244
  257
  271
  286
  301
  317
  334
  351
  370
  389
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  128
  140
  151
  164
  176
  190
  203
  218
  233
  248
  264
  281
  298
  316
  335
  355
  375
  396
  419
  442
  467
  492
  518
  547
  576
  606
  638
  671
  707
  744
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -4
  -3
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Funds from operations, $m
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  -1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -23
Free cash flow, $m
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  9
  8
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  15
  14
  14
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  10
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  48
  51
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -1
  0
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
Discount rate, %
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
  34.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  88.0
  79.6
  73.3
  68.7
  65.2
  62.5
  60.6
  59.2
  58.4
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0
  58.0

S&W Seed Company (S&W) is a global agricultural company. The Company focuses on the breeding, production and sale of alfalfa seed. In addition to its primary activities in alfalfa seed, it also offers hybrid sorghum and sunflower seed germplasm. As of June 30, 2016, the Company sold its alfalfa seed varieties in more than 30 countries across the globe. It also owns and operates seed-cleaning and processing facilities in Five Points, California and Nampa, Idaho and a seed processing facility in Keith, South Australia. Its commercial product line-up includes alfalfa seed varieties that span from Fall Dormancy (FD) 3 to FD 10. Its non-dormant varieties include SW 10, SW 9720, SW 9215, SW 9628 and SW 8421S. Its FD 3, FD 4 and FD 5 S&W varieties are adapted to the winter-hardy intermountain west and the northern half of the United States and Canada. Its FD 3, FD 4 and FD 5 S&W varieties include Rhino, SW4328 and SW5909.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  S&W Seed (SANW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.5
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 3.3%
Total Debt to Equity 63.9%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Return On Total Capital -11.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Return On Equity -18.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.1%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Operating Margin -4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.1%
Net Profit Margin -16%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.6%
Effective Tax Rate -200%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -25%
Payout Ratio 0%

SANW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SANW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $75.37381 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by S&W Seed. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of S&W Seed. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SANW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.4%, whose default value for SANW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of S&W Seed, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of S&W Seed.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SANW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $20 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SANW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.8% for S&W Seed.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for S&W Seed. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SANW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SANW are equal to 48.3%.

Life of production assets of 17.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in S&W Seed operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SANW is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $61.221655 million for S&W Seed - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.343 million for S&W Seed is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of S&W Seed at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating

COMPANY NEWS

▶ S&W Seed: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Sacramento company wins auction for assets of sorghum seed developer   [06:01PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ S&W Seed: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ S&W Expands International Breeding Capabilities   [Aug-29-18 09:01AM  PR Newswire]
▶ S&W Seed: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 08:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ SANW: Second quarter revenue and cost of goods were spot on our estimates.   [Feb-09-18 10:00AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ S&W Seed reports 2Q loss   [Feb-08-18 06:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ S&W Seed Company to Host Earnings Call   [12:10PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ S&W Announces Closing of Rights Offering   [Dec-22-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to S&W Seed Co. : December 18, 2017   [Dec-18-17 04:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to S&W Seed Co. : December 5, 2017   [Dec-05-17 01:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ S&W Moves Corporate Offices to Sacramento, California   [Nov-27-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ S&W Announces Upcoming Rights Offering   [Nov-15-17 10:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ SANW : First quarter revenue better than expectations   [Nov-10-17 12:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ S&W Seed reports 1Q loss   [05:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to S&W Seed Co. : October 25, 2017   [Oct-25-17 10:10AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to S&W Seed Co. : October 10, 2017   [Oct-10-17 11:48AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to S&W Seed Co. : September 25, 2017   [Sep-25-17 10:45AM  Capital Cube]
▶ SANW: Fourth quarter results and stevia update   [09:00AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ S&W Seed reports 4Q loss   [Sep-14-17 09:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Tate & Lyle embraces stevia, partnering with Sweet Green Fields Co. Ltd.   [Aug-28-17 01:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ ETFs with exposure to S&W Seed Co. : August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 05:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Banco Santander posts 2Q profit   [Jul-28-17 08:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ SANW: S&W Seed raises $10 million and revises fourth quarter guidance.   [Jul-20-17 11:00AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ S&W Announces Its Intent to Pursue a Rights Offering   [Jul-19-17 06:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to S&W Seed Co. : June 22, 2017   [Jun-22-17 04:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ SANW: Mark Wong named CEO   [Jun-21-17 05:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ Mark Wong Appointed CEO of S&W Seed Company   [Jun-20-17 06:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ S&W Seed meets 3Q profit forecasts   [May-10-17 04:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ SANW has been granted another patent on stevia.   [May-02-17 01:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]

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